• Fisheries and Aquatic Sciences
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• v.24 no.2
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• pp.78-88
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• 2021

The annual consumption of fishery products, particularly sea squirt (Halocynthia roretzi), per person has steadily increased in South Korea. However, the quantitative risk of Vibrio parahaemolyticus following intake of sea squirt has not been analyzed. This study focuses on quantitative predictions of the probability of consuming sea squirt and getting of V. parahaemolyticus foodborne illness. The prevalence of V. parahaemolyticus in sea squirt was evaluated, and the time spent by sea squirt in transportation vehicles, market displays, and home refrigerators, in addition to the temperature of each of these, were recorded. The data were fitted to the @RISK program to obtain a probability distribution. Predictive models were developed to determine the fate of V. parahaemolyticus under distribution conditions. A simulation model was prepared based on experimental data, and a dose-response model for V. parahaemolyticus was prepared using data from literature to estimate infection risk. V. parahaemolyticus contamination was detected in 6 of 35 (17.1%) sea squirt samples. The daily consumption quantity of sea squirt was 62.14 g per person, and the consumption frequency was 0.28%. The average probability of V. parahaemolyticus foodborne illness following sea squirt consumption per person per day was 4.03 × 10^-9. The objective of this study was to evaluate the risk of foodborne illness caused by Vibrio parahaemolyticus following sea squirt consumption in South Korea.

• Journal of Information Technology Applications and Management
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• v.11 no.2
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• pp.15-27
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• 2004

Most software projects inevitably involve various types and degrees of uncertainty. Without proper risk assessment and coordination, software projects can easily run out of control and consume significant additional resource. Thus, risk management techniques are critical issues to information system researchers. Previous empirical studies of U.S. software firms support the adoption of development standardization and user requirement analysis techniques in risk-based software project management. Using data collected from software projects developed in Korea during 1999-2000, we conduct a comparative study to determine how risk management strategies impact software product and process performance in countries with dissimilar IT capabilities. In addition, we offer an alternative conceptualization of residual performance risk. We show that the use of residual performance risk as an intervening variable is inappropriate in IT developing countries like Korea where the role of late stage risk control remedies are critical. A revised model is proposed that generates more reliable empirical implications for Korean software projects.

• Journal of the Korea Institute of Building Construction
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• v.7 no.1 s.23
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• pp.63-70
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• 2007

The aims of this study are to draw the project risk factors by grasping the relation especially between the construction preparation cost calculation and the project risk factors in the project's bidding stage, and to draw the cost estimate based on the risk when the orderer or the constructer performs the project and the main factors in calculating the most suitable construction cost by clarifying the understanding degree of the influence between the risk factors and the construction cost. In addition, this study can give a help to the proper decision -making through the prediction of the construction preparation cost, and this study is expected to give the basic data in developing the assessment tool for the most suitable construction cost of the project.

• Proceedings of the KSRS Conference
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• 2003.11a
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• pp.991-993
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• 2003

The 4 sets of environmental variables dealing with meteorology, hydrology and physiography were analyzed to generate a spatial drought risk index of Phitsanulok province of Thailand. The analysis of K-mean and discriminant were applied to the set of the selective drought variables for grouping each of spatial variable set into 4 classes. The obtained 4 classes, based on group statistics, were thus recoded in the meaning of no risk, low risk, moderate risk, and high risk. The regression coefficient between recoded classes and a set of the selective environmental variables were then applied as spatial variable weighting on thematic dataset in GIS spatial analysis. The results showed that the weighting score of drought variable was highest in meteorological variable compared to other variables.

• Communications for Statistical Applications and Methods
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• v.28 no.6
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• pp.655-671
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• 2021

This study analyzes the premium risk of insurers in Korea, which is expected to experience the fastest population aging in the world. Based on the Lee-Carter model, we generate 10,000 scenarios for the number of future survivors in the group of the 10,000 policyholders of life annuity. According to the result of simulation study, the probability of insurer's loss for both groups of male and female policyholders is very low. This result indicates that the premium risk of insurers is not as great as the insurer's concern. This study also suggests introduction of the longevity swap as an alternative to manage the premium risk for the insurer which sells life annuity products. The longevity swap allows insurers to hedge premium risk and reduce capital burden due to the premium risk inherent in life annuity. This study also shows through examples that the counterparty of swap deal may have excess profit in exchange for taking premium risk.

• Journal of the Korea Institute of Information Security & Cryptology
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• v.29 no.5
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• pp.1179-1189
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• 2019

Cyber security evaluation is a series of processes that estimate the level of risk of assets and systems through asset analysis, threat analysis and vulnerability analysis and apply appropriate security measures. In order to prepare for increasing cyber attacks, systematic cyber security evaluation is required. Various indicators for measuring cyber security level such as CWSS and CVSS have been developed, but the quantitative method to apply appropriate security measures according to the risk priority through the standardized security evaluation result is insufficient. It is needed that an Scoring system taking into consideration the characteristics of the target assets, the applied environment, and the impact on the assets. In this paper, we propose a quantitative risk assessment model based on the analysis of existing cyber security scoring system and a method for quantification of assessment factors to apply to the established model. The level of qualitative attribute elements required for cyber security evaluation is expressed as a value through security requirement weight by AHP, threat influence, and vulnerability element applying probability. It is expected that the standardized cyber security evaluation system will be established by supplementing the limitations of the quantitative method of applying the statistical data through the proposed method.

• Journal of Environmental Health Sciences
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• v.43 no.3
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• pp.223-232
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• 2017

Objectives: In response to increased interest in the safety of children's products, a risk management system is being prepared through exposure assessment of hazardous chemicals. To estimate exposure levels, risk assessors are using deterministic and probabilistic approaches to statistical methodology and a commercialized Monte Carlo simulation based on tools (MCTool) to efficiently support calculation of the probability density functions. This study was conducted to analyze and discuss the usage patterns and problems associated with the results of these two approaches and MCTools used in the case of probabilistic approaches by reviewing research reports related to exposure assessment for children's products. Methods: We collected six research reports on exposure and risk assessment of children's products and summarized the deterministic results and corresponding underlying distributions for exposure dose and concentration results estimated through deterministic and probabilistic approaches. We focused on mechanisms and differences in the MCTools used for decision making with probabilistic distributions to validate the simulation adequacy in detail. Results: The estimation results of exposure dose and concentration from the deterministic approaches were 0.19-3.98 times higher than the results from the probabilistic approach. For the probabilistic approach, the use of lognormal, Student's T, and Weibull distributions had the highest frequency as underlying distributions of the input parameters. However, we could not examine the reasons for the selection of each distribution because of the absence of test-statistics. In addition, there were some cases estimating the discrete probability distribution model as the underlying distribution for continuous variables, such as weight. To find the cause of abnormal simulations, we applied two MCTools used for all reports and described the improper usage routes of MCTools. Conclusions: For transparent and realistic exposure assessment, it is necessary to 1) establish standardized guidelines for the proper use of the two statistical approaches, including notes by MCTool and 2) consider the development of a new software tool with proper configurations and features specialized for risk assessment. Such guidelines and software will make exposure assessment more user-friendly, consistent, and rapid in the future.

• Analytical Science and Technology
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• v.27 no.5
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• pp.261-268
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• 2014

In advanced countries, a variety of consumer exposure assessment models including CONSEXPO, are developed to manage risks of consumer products containing hazardous materials. The models are used to assess the risks of exposure to hazardous chemicals in consumer products, which serves as a foundation for regulation standards. In this study, exposure assessment models applicable for various scenarios were reviewed and a proper model was applied for the selected products and risk assessment was conducted at each stage to establish a risk assessment procedure for different types of products. Based on the exposure scenario, exposure factor was selected and according to the algorithm produced based on CONSEXPO exposure model, some level of phthalates were detected from some types of PVC flooring. However, a correlation between phthalate content and migration rate showed r-square 0.0065, little correlation, which is inadequate for estimating standard value. For this reason, it seems valid that the current standard be in place. Additionally, any new standard was not suggested as VOCs were not found harmful to human health, allowing the existing standard to be continuously applied. No migration rate was found for heavy metals and risk assessment was not performed accordingly. In this aspect, it is presumed that hazards to health through dermal exposure would be very little.

• Journal of Environmental Health Sciences
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• v.50 no.1
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• pp.43-53
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• 2024

Background: Exposure assessment is an important part of risk assessment for consumer products. Exposure models are used when estimating consumer exposures by considering exposure routes, subjects, and circumstances. These models differ based on their tiers, types, and target populations. Consequently, exposure estimates may vary between models. Objectives: This study aimed to compare the results of different exposure models using identical exposure factors. Methods: Chemical exposure from consumer products was calculated using four consumer exposure assessment models: Targeted Risk Assessment 3.1, Consumer Exposure Model 2.1 (CEM), ConsExpo web 1.1.1, and the Korean Exposure Algorithm (primary and detailed) issued by the Ministry of Environment, No. 972 (MOE). The same exposure factors were used in each model to calculate inhalation and dermal exposures to acetaldehyde, d-limonene, and naphthalene in all-purpose cleaners, leather coating sprays, and sealants. Results: In the results, TRA provided the highest estimate. Generally, MOE (detailed), CEM and ConsExpo showed lower exposures. The inhalation exposure for leather coating spray showed the largest differences between models, with differences reaching up to 1.2×10⁷ times. Since identical inputs were used for the calculations, it is likely that the models significantly influenced the estimated results. Conclusions: Despite using the same exposure factors to calculate dermal and inhalation exposures, the results varied substantially based on the model's exposure algorithm. Therefore, selecting an exposure model for assessing consumer products should be done with careful consideration.

• Proceedings of the Korean Society for Quality Management Conference
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• 2009.10a
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• pp.227-229
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• 2009

Recent discussions in the active growth strategy based on getting a green environment, changes in the management of companies involved in environmental management is the analysis of various risk factors and the green growth at the same time the company's growth strategy is required. Thus, the corporate position on the green growth strategy based on risk management to analyze and respond to face reality, and respond to the scene of the applied methodology is required. In this study, contact the section of Environment to assess potential business risks that the EMEA Environment Mode Effects Analysis methodology through research and development company's in, contact the section of Environment to effectively analyze risk management by addressing the degree of risk assessment as a future-oriented and objective can manage is to provide technical management model.