• 한국지리정보학회지
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• 제19권4호
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• pp.36-51
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• 2016

본 연구는 기후변화에 따른 도시홍수 리스크 평가를 위해 베이지안 확률통계 모형과 GIS를 연계 활용하였다. 리스크는 재난발생가능성과 영향 크기의 곱으로 평가될 수 있다. 본 연구는 베이지안 모델을 기반으로 침수발생가능성을 추정하였고, 기후변화 시나리오 정보를 반영하여 미래 침수발생가능성도 평가하였다. 침수로 발생할 수 있는 영향은 인명피해와 재산피해의 측면에서 살펴보았다. 서울시 서초구를 대상으로 분석한 결과, 현재 침수발생가능성은 하천에 인접하고, 주변지역보다 고도가 낮으며 불투수면 밀집지역인 서초동, 반포동 일대가 높게 나타났다. 미래 침수발생가능성 추정결과, 2050년의 위험지역 면적이 2030년보다 1.3배 증가하는 것으로 나타났다. 추정된 발생가능성을 활용한 리스크 평가 결과, 인명피해 리스크는 일반 및 고층 주거지역을 중심으로 높은 리스크를 보인 반면, 재산피해는 상업지역을 중심으로 리스크가 높게 나타났다. 2050년의 재산피해 리스크는 2030년의 재산피해 리스크보다 약 6.6% 증가하는 것으로 평가되었다. 본 연구에서 제안된 도시홍수 리스크 평가 기법은 상세한 공간결과 값의 제공으로 지역맞춤형 재해저감 전략을 위한 중요한 의사결정 자료로 활용될 수 있을 것으로 기대한다.

• 한국항해항만학회지
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• 제36권4호
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• pp.279-284
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• 2012

This study aims to identify the degree of safety when mariners take their actions in several different situations. We have carried out many experiments to observe mariners' behavior and then measured the safety level based on their actions to avoid dangerous situations of ships collision. One of the most important actions that mariners have to take, either as their daily routine or when they are in a collision situation and then want to avoid that situation is the lookout. In this paper, behaviors on the lookout have been defined as a standard sequence of three steps which are "time of first detection", "time of recognition as risky vessel" and "time of starting avoiding action", and the suitability and applicability of the definition have been shown. And also we propose the risk assessment on ships collision and the recommendation for reducing ships collision at sea. Some analyzing results and the application of the results are reported. By combining these knowledge and some systematic studies, we propose the risk assessment on ships collision and the recommendation for reducing ships collision at sea.

• 한국전산구조공학회:학술대회논문집
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• 한국전산구조공학회 2008년도 정기 학술대회
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• pp.114-119
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• 2008

A refined three-dimensional finite element interaction model between the high-speed train and railway bride deck has been developed in the present study. Analytical predictions of vertical deflections for a railway bridge are compared with in-situ test results and a good agreement is achieved. Then, input variables employed in the analytical comparisons are selected as random variables for the limit state functions. followed by risk assessment. For this purpose, a linear adaptive weighted response surface method has been developed and applied. A typical railway bridge has been selected and the limit state functions are employed from UIC and Korean specifications in the comparative studies. The results reveal that Korean specifications give significantly risky reliability indices in comparison with UIC specifications. It is thus encouraged from the above that the present linear adaptive weighted response surface method can be an alternative for the fast estimation of nonlinear structural systems.

• Toxicological Research
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• 제17권
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• pp.25-35
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• 2001

In 1990, Tolerable Daily Intake (TDI) of 10 pg TCDD/kg/day for dioxins based on carcinogenicity and reproductive toxicity was determined by WHO/EURO, that resulted in the establishment of TDIs in other countries. In Japan, Ministry of Health and Welfare and Environment Agency, respectively established the TDI of 10 pg TCDD/kg/day and Health Risk Assessment Index of 5 pg TCDD/kg/day in 1996. Accumulation of new scientific data, especially by molecular toxicology since 1990, resulted in the reevaluation of TDI by WHO-ECEH and IPCS in May, 1998. At this meeting, it was stressed that \circled1 toxic effects of dioxin is mediated through Ah-receptor in both animals and humans, \circled2 use of ebody burdeni concept is better than the use of traditional NOAEL/UF approach, \circled3 inclusion of coplanar PCBs in the TDI by the use of new WHO-TEF. LOAELs (0.16~200 ng TCDD/kg/day) obtained from reproductive toxicity and immunotoxicity in rats, and neurobehavioral toxicity and induction of endometriosis in rhesus monkeys are calculated to be the body burden of 10~50 ng TCDD/kg that is 14~37 pg TEQ/kg/day as human daily intake. Finally TDI of 1~4 pg TEQ/kg/day was established by applying the UF of 10. In Japan, reproductive toxicity and immunotoxicity in rats were used to obtain LOAELs (100~200 ng TCDD/kg/day). Finally TDI of 4 pg TEQ/kg/day was established in June 1999 by applying the UF of 10 to human daily intake of 43.6 pg TEQ/kg/day which corresponds to the body burden of 86 ng TCDD/kg.

• 대한전기학회:학술대회논문집
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• 대한전기학회 1999년도 하계학술대회 논문집 C
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• pp.1085-1087
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• 1999

In this paper, we propose the method for assessing the effect of voltage sag in power distribution system using fuzzy risk assessment model. The proposed method is based on SCBEMA curve that expresses the representative susceptibility curve by voltage sag for each customer type. These corves are made using the CBEMA curves obtained from the experiment for the customers'sensitive equipment. In order to transform SCBEMA curves to the probability damage by voltage sag, the fuzzy risk assessment model is used in this paper. Case studies were performed to analyze the effect of voltage sag by varying parameters. The Monte Carlo simulation method and the historical reliability data in KEPCO are used for case studies.

• Environmental Engineering Research
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• 제13권3호
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• pp.107-111
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• 2008

Water quality contamination issues are of critical concern to human health, whilst pesticide release generated from irrigated land should be considered for protecting natural habitats and human health. This paper suggests new method for evaluation and analysis using the GIS technique based on integrated spatial modeling framework. The pesticide use on irrigated land is a subset of the larger spectrum of industrial chemicals used in modern society. The behavior of a pesticide is affected by the natural affinity of the chemical for one of four environmental compartments; solid matter, liquid, gaseous form, and biota. However, the major movements are a physical transport over the ground surface by rainfall-runoff and irrigation-runoff. The irrigated water carries out with the transporting sediments and makes contaminated water by pesticide. This paper focuses on risk impact identification and assessment using GIS technique. Also, generated data on pesticide residues on farmland and surface water through GIS simulation will be reflected to environmental research programs. Finally, this study indicates that GIS application is a beneficial tool for spatial pesticide impact analysis as well as environmental risk assessment.

• 정보보호학회논문지
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• 제27권6호
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• pp.1483-1490
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• 2017

스마트워치는 사용자가 착용하는 소형 스마트 기기로 연결성, 기능성 및 유용성을 위해 호스트 기기인 스마트폰과 페어링 과정을 필요로 한다. 페어링 과정 이후에는 사용자의 의식 없이도 스마트워치와 스마트폰 기기 간의 데이터 업데이트 및 백업 과정이 가능하며 스마트폰의 다양한 데이터가 복제되어 스마트워치로 넘어온다. 본 연구는 플랫폼별 스마트워치에 대해 스마트폰으로부터 복제되어 넘어오는 데이터를 사용 시점별로 추출 및 관찰하여 분석한다. 또한 스마트워치 사용자를 대상으로 실시한 보안관련 인식에 대한 설문조사를 바탕으로 데이터 추출 실험 결과에 따른 보안 및 개인 정보보호관점에서의 데이터별 위험도 평가를 수행하고 대응방안을 고찰한다.

• Nuclear Engineering and Technology
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• 제48권2호
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• pp.386-403
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• 2016

The safety of nuclear power plants is analyzed by a probabilistic risk assessment, and the fault tree analysis is the most widely used method for a risk assessment with the event tree analysis. One of the well-known disadvantages of the fault tree is that drawing a fault tree for a complex system is a very cumbersome task. Thus, several graphical modeling methods have been proposed for the convenient and intuitive modeling of complex systems. In this paper, the reliability graph with general gates (RGGG) method, one of the intuitive graphical modeling methods based on Bayesian networks, is improved for the reliability analyses of dynamic systems that have various operation modes with time. A reliability matrix is proposed and it is explained how to utilize the reliability matrix in the RGGG for various cases of operation mode changes. The proposed RGGG with a reliability matrix provides a convenient and intuitive modeling of various operation modes of complex systems, and can also be utilized with dynamic nodes that analyze the failure sequences of subcomponents. The combinatorial use of a reliability matrix with dynamic nodes is illustrated through an application to a shutdown cooling system in a nuclear power plant.

• 한국가스학회지
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• 제2권3호
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• pp.70-77
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• 1998

본 연구에서는 가스시설의 설비 운영 및 보수시에 존재할 수 있는 다양한 인적오류를 확인하고 평가하는 정성적인 기법을 제안하였다. 이것은 정성적 평가 기법들이 갖는 기본적 성격들, 즉 도표화된 형태로 구성된 분석 체계와 각 기법마다 이탈적 현상을 표기하는 가이드워드 체계를 인적오류분석에 적합한 방법으로 고안한 것이다. 그리고 제안한 방법을 실제 밸브기지의 중요 시스템인 정압기 시설의 보수 절차서에 대하여 적용하였다. 그 결과로서 보수작업시에 발생할 수 있는 인적오류를 도출하고 제안한 인적오류평가 방법의 타당성을 검증하였다.

• Geomechanics and Engineering
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• 제18권6호
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• pp.661-668
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• 2019

Seismic vulnerability assessment is a useful tool for rational safety analysis and planning of large and complex structural systems; it can deal with the effects of uncertainties on the performance of significant structural systems. In this study, an efficient dynamic reliability approach, probability density evolution methodology (PDEM), is proposed for seismic vulnerability analysis of earth dams. The PDEM provides the failure probability of different limit states for various levels of ground motion intensity as well as the mean value, standard deviation and probability density function of the performance metric of the earth dam. Combining the seismic reliability with three different performance levels related to the displacement of the earth dam, the seismic fragility curves are constructed without them being limited to a specific functional form. Furthermore, considering the seismic fragility analysis is a significant procedure in the seismic probabilistic risk assessment of structures, the seismic vulnerability results obtained by the dynamic reliability approach are combined with the results of probabilistic seismic hazard and seismic loss analysis to present and address the PDEM-based seismic probabilistic risk assessment framework by a simulated case study of an earth dam.