• Title/Summary/Keyword: Risk-based assessment

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A Study on Categorizing Ecosystem Groups for Climate Change Risk Assessment - Focused on Applicability of Land Cover Classification - (기후변화 리스크 평가를 위한 생태계 유형분류 방안 검토 - 국내 토지피복분류 적용성을 중심으로 -)

  • Yeo, Inae;Bae, Haejin;Hong, Seungbum
    • Journal of Environmental Impact Assessment
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    • v.26 no.6
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    • pp.385-403
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    • 2017
  • This study showed the national ecosystem classification for the spatial standards of ecosystems-based approaches to the risk assessments and adaptation plan. The characteristics of climate change risk assessment, implement national adaptation plans, and ecosystem/habitat classification status was evaluated. Focusing on the land cover classification widely utilized as spatial data for the assessments of biodiversity and ecosystem services in the UK and other countries in Europe, the applicability of the national land cover classification for climate change risk assessments was reviewed. Considering the ecosystem classification for climate change risk assessment and establishing adaptation measures, it is difficult to apply rough classification method to the land cover system because of lack of information on habitat trend by categorization. The results indicated that forest ecosystems and agro-ecosystem occupied 62.3% and 25.0% of land cover, respectively, of the entire country. Although the area is small compared with the land area, wetland ecosystem (2.9%), marine ecosystem (0.4%), coastal ecosystem (0.6%), and urban ecosystem (6.1%) can be included in the risk assessments. Therefore, it is necessary to subdivide below the medium classification for the forest and agricultural land, as well as Inland wetland, which has a higher proportion of habitat preference of taxa than land area, marine/coastal habitat, and transition areas such as urban and natural ecosystem.

Ring Test as Acute Toxicity Test with Korean Freshwater Shrimp, Neocaridina denticulata using 3,4-Dichloroaniline (국내 서식 담수새우 새뱅이(Neocaridina denticulata)를 이용한 3,4-Dichloroaniline의 급성독성 교차시험(Ring test))

  • Shin, Yu-jin;Lee, Jae-woo;Kim, Jieun;Cho, Jaegu;Kim, Ja-Hyun;Kang, Minho;Kim, Kyungtae;Kim, Pil-je;Park, Kyunghwa
    • Journal of Environmental Health Sciences
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    • v.45 no.3
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    • pp.285-294
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    • 2019
  • Objectives: For suitable risk management of the domestic aquatic environment, it is necessary to conduct toxicity tests using species native to Korea. In the present study, we performed toxicity ring tests using endemic freshwater arthropoda Neocaridina denticulata and evaluated its validity and reproducibility as an international standard test species. Methods: To evaluate the sensitivity levels of N. denticulata to hazardous chemicals, toxicity values for several chemicals were compared with other standard test species. Intra- and inter-laboratory acute toxicity tests were performed both within a single laboratory and among four laboratories respectively using 3,4-Dichloroaniline, which is generally used as a reference test substance in fish toxicity tests. In addition, intra- and inter-laboratory coefficient of variations (CVs) were calculated to evaluate reproducibility based on the estimated toxicity values. Results: The sensitivity of N. denticulata to several chemicals was found to be similar with D. manga, indicating that the species is valid as a test species. The CVs of the intra- and inter-laboratory tests were 22.946% with four qualified runs and 8.828% among the four laboratories, respectively. Conclusions: N. denticulata serves in an important role in the food chain of Korean aquatic ecosystems and also inhabits several other Asian countries. Since the validity and reproducibility of the species were confirmed as a toxicity test species in this study, further efforts are needed to establish N. denticulata as the international standard test species for the appropriate risk assessment of aquatic ecosystems at home and abroad.

Risk Assessment Tools for Invasive Alien Species in Japan and Europe (일본과 유럽의 침입외래생물 생태계위해성평가 기법)

  • Kil, Jihyon;Mun, Saeromi;Kim, Chang-Gi
    • Ecology and Resilient Infrastructure
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    • v.2 no.3
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    • pp.191-197
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    • 2015
  • Invasive alien species are considered to be one of the main factors that cause biodiversity loss. Establishment of management strategies through continuous monitoring and risk assessment is a key element for invasive alien species management policy. In the present study, we introduce examples of ecological risk assessment tools developed in Japan, Germany-Austria and Belgium. Invasive alien species have been designated in Japan based on the assessment of risks to ecosystems, human health and primary industry. German-Austrian Black List Information System categorized alien species into Black List, White List and Grey List according to their risks to biodiversity. In the Harmonia Information System developed in Belgium, invasiveness, adverse impacts on native species and ecosystem functions and invasion stages were assessed and alien species were categorized into Black List, Watch List and Alert List. These international risk assessment tools may be helpful to improve our national risk assessment protocol for the prioritization of invasive alien species management.

A Model to Identify Expeditiously During Storm to Enable Effective Responses to Flood Threat

  • Husain, Mohammad;Ali, Arshad
    • International Journal of Computer Science & Network Security
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    • v.21 no.5
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    • pp.23-30
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    • 2021
  • In recent years, hazardous flash flooding has caused deaths and damage to infrastructure in Saudi Arabia. In this paper, our aim is to assess patterns and trends in climate means and extremes affecting flash flood hazards and water resources in Saudi Arabia for the purpose to improve risk assessment for forecast capacity. We would like to examine temperature, precipitation climatology and trend magnitudes at surface stations in Saudi Arabia. Based on the assessment climate patterns maps and trends are accurately used to identify synoptic situations and tele-connections associated with flash flood risk. We also study local and regional changes in hydro-meteorological extremes over recent decades through new applications of statistical methods to weather station data and remote sensing based precipitation products; and develop remote sensing based high-resolution precipitation products that can aid to develop flash flood guidance system for the flood-prone areas. A dataset of extreme events has been developed using the multi-decadal station data, the statistical analysis has been performed to identify tele-connection indices, pressure and sea surface temperature patterns most predictive to heavy rainfall. It has been combined with time trends in extreme value occurrence to improve the potential for predicting and rapidly detecting storms. A methodology and algorithms has been developed for providing a well-calibrated precipitation product that can be used in the early warning systems for elevated risk of floods.

Qualitative Assessment and Development of Level of Evidence and Strength of Recommendation Models in the Field of Physical Therapy in Korea (국내 물리치료분야에 대한 질적 평가와 근거 수준 및 권고 등급 모형 개발 방안)

  • Sung-Hyoun Cho;Jeong-Woo Lee
    • Journal of The Korean Society of Integrative Medicine
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    • v.11 no.2
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    • pp.231-242
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    • 2023
  • Purpose : This study aimed to identify ways to improve the quality of physical therapy research and ultimately review the current situation to improve evidence-based decision-making in physical therapy. Methods : For better evidence-based decision-making in physical therapy, researchers should review the quality assessment of articles in more detail and report their findings for valid and appropriate level of evidence and strength of recommendations. The level of evidence affects how well the findings are derived from well-designed literature. The evaluation of the evidence focuses primarily on the study design and the degree of bias that may compromise the validity of the findings. The final recommendation is based on a combination of the study design and literature quality. To uncover gems of information in each paper, a risk of bias assessment should be performed after the literature has been initially selected. Results : Researchers should consider the complexity of the intervention, appropriate grouping, and calculation of effect sizes for the intervention. Researchers conducting systematic reviews should provide a detailed description of the quality assessment performed and present a detailed analysis of their interpretation of the results. The results of systematic reviews and meta-analyses should be interpreted with caution and include a risk of bias assessment. Guidelines for the level of evidence and strength of recommendations should be developed and utilized more broadly to improve reporting practices in physical therapy. Conclusion : Researchers should be knowledgeable about the strengths and limitations of each study design and methodology. In the future, researchers will also need to improve their ability to critically evaluate their findings, given the potential for their results to influence clinical practice.

Risk Assessment Technique for Gas Fuel Supply System of Combined Cycle Power Plants (I) : Based on API RBI Procedures (복합화력발전의 가스연료 공급계통에 대한 위험도 평가 기법 연구 (I) : API RBI 절차에 기반한 위험도 평가)

  • Song, Jung Soo;Yu, Jong Min;Han, Seung Youn;Choi, Jeong Woo;Yoon, Kee Bong
    • Journal of Energy Engineering
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    • v.27 no.2
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    • pp.1-13
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    • 2018
  • The proportion of natural gas-fueled power generation is expanding due to the change of domestic energy policy pursuing reduction of dust and increasing clean energy consumption. Natural gas fuels used for the combined-cycle power plants and the district-heating power plants are operated at high temperature and high pressure in the fuel supply system. Accidents due to leakage of the gas such as fire and explosion should be prevented by applying risk management techniques. In this study, risk assessment was performed on the natural gas fuel supply system of a combined power plant based on the API RP 581 RBI code. For the application of the API RBI code, lines and segments of the evaluation target system were identified. Operational data and input information were analyzed for the calculations of probability of failure and consequence of failure. The results of the risk assessment were analyzed over time from the initial installation time. In the code-based evaluation, the gas fuel supply system was mainly affected by thinning, external damage, and mechanical fatigue damage mechanisms. As the operating time passes, the risk is expected to increase due to the external damage caused by the CUI(Corrosion Under Insulation).

Development of index for flood risk assessment on national scale and future outlook (전국 단위 홍수위험도 평가를 위한 지수 개발과 미래 전망)

  • Kim, Daeho;Kim, Young-Oh;Jee, Hee Won;Kang, Tae-Ho
    • Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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    • v.53 no.5
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    • pp.323-336
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    • 2020
  • Owing to climate change, the annual precipitation in Korea has increased since the 20th century, and it is projected to continue increasing in the future. This trend of increasing precipitation will raise the possibility of floods; hence, it is necessary to establish national adaptation plans for floods, based on a reasonable flood risk assessment. Therefore, this study focuses on developing a framework that can assess the flood risk across the country, as well as computing the flood risk index (FRI). The framework, which is based on IPCC AR5, is established as a combination of three indicators: hazard, exposure, and capacity. A data-based approach was used, and the weights of each component were assigned to improve the validity of the FRI. A Spearman correlation analysis between the FRI and flood damage verified that the index was capable of assessing potential flood damage. When predicting scenarios for future assessment using the HadGEM3-RA based on RCP 4.5 and 8.5, the flood risk tends to be lower in the early and mid-21st century, and it becomes higher at the end of the 21st century as compared with the present.

Investigation and Risk Assessment of Asbestos-Containing Materials used in Buildings (건축물에 사용된 석면함유물질(ACMs)의 조사 및 위해성 평가)

  • Kim, Hong-Kwan;Chon, Young Woo;Roh, Young Man;Hong, Seung-Han;Kim, Chi-Nyon;Lee, Ik-Mo
    • Journal of Korean Society of Occupational and Environmental Hygiene
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    • v.28 no.1
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    • pp.35-42
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    • 2018
  • Objectives: The objectives of this study are to research the usage characteristics of asbestos-containing building materials and to conduct exposure risk assessment by applying no. 2016-230 "Methods of Risk Assessment of Asbestos-Containing Buildings" from the Ministry of Environment. Methods: One hundred buildings located in the Seoul and Gyeonggi-Incheon area were chosen, with 29 in Seoul, 20 in Incheon, and 51 in Gyeonggi-do Province. The year of construction was divided between three buildings in the 1970s, 11 buildings in the 1980s, 42 buildings in the 1990s, and 44 buildings in the 2000s. The bulk samples were analyzed by using a polarizing microscope after a pre-process using a stereomicroscope in a hood with an HEPA filter. This study defined ACMs(asbestos-containing materials) as asbestos when the content percentage was over 1% in the analysis result. Methods and standards of risk assessment of asbestos-containing building materials were conducted by refering to no. 2016-230 "Method of Risk Assessment of Asbestos-Containing Buildings" from the Ministry of Environment. The risk of exposure to ACMs was rated by a score based on three categories(high, middle, low risk of asbestos exposure). Results: In this study, 30 of the 100 buildings and 36 of the 416 bulk samples(8.6%) were found to have had asbestos. Asbestos was detected at a high rate, in 18 out of 42, in buildings constructed in the 1990s and at the lowest rate(7 out of 44) for buildings constructed in the 2000s. As a result of the evaluation according to no. 2016-230 "Method of Risk Assessment of Asbestos-Containing Buildings" of the Ministry of Environment, the risk assessment level of two asbestos-containing building materials was found to be "Medium", and 28 buildings materials were found to be at the "Low" level. Conclusion: As asbestos is regulated by the government, it is required to conduct active management and implemention by introducing methods of risk assessment of asbestos exposure that are supported by data from various situations. In the case of buildings owned by individuals, building owners should be aware of the risk of exposure to asbestos.

Breast Cancer Risk and Early Diagnosis Applications in Turkish Women Aged 50 and Over

  • Ceber, Esin;Mermer, Gulengul;Okcin, Figen;Sari, Dilek;Demireloz, Mahide;Eksioglu, Aysun;Ogce, Filiz;Cakır, Dilek;Ozenturk, Gulsun
    • Asian Pacific Journal of Cancer Prevention
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    • v.14 no.10
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    • pp.5877-5882
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    • 2013
  • Background: The aim of the study was to determine breast cancer risk and early diagnosis applications in women aged ${\geq}50$. Materials and Methods: This cross-sectional, descriptive field study focused on a population of 4,815 in Mansuro$\breve{g}$lu with a 55.1% participation rate in screening. In the study, body mass index (BMI) was also evaluated in the calculation of breast cancer risk by the Breast Cancer Risk Assessment Tool (BCRA) (also called the "Gail Risk Assessment Tool"). The interviewers had a three-hour training provided by the researchers, during which interactive training methods were used and applications were supported with role-plays. Results: The mean age of the women participating in the study was $60.1{\pm}8.80$. Of these women, 57.3% were in the 50-59 age group, 71.7% were married, 57.3% were primary school graduates and 61.7% were housewives. Breast-cancer development rate was 7.4% in the women participating in the study. When they were evaluated according to their relationship with those with breast cancer, it was determined that 73.0% of them had firstdegree relatives with breast cancer. According to the assessment based on the Gail method, the women's breast cancer development risk within the next 5 years was 17.6%, whereas their calculated lifetime risk was found to be as low as 0.2%. Statistically significant differences (P=0.000) were determined between performing BSE-CBE and socio-demographic factors. Conclusions: It was determined that 17.6% of the participants had breast cancer risk. There was no statistically significant difference between the women with and without breast cancer risk in terms of early diagnosis practices, which can be regarded as a remarkable finding. It was planned to provide training about the early diagnosis and treatment of breast cancer for people with high-risk scores, and to conduct population-based breast cancer screening programs.

Collapse risk evaluation method on Bayesian network prediction model and engineering application

  • WANG, Jing;LI, Shucai;LI, Liping;SHI, Shaoshuai;XU, Zhenhao;LIN, Peng
    • Advances in Computational Design
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    • v.2 no.2
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    • pp.121-131
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    • 2017
  • Collapse was one of the typical common geological hazards during the construction of tunnels. The risk assessment of collapse was an effective way to ensure the safety of tunnels. We established a prediction model of collapse based on Bayesian Network. 76 large or medium collapses in China were analyzed. The variable set and range of the model were determined according to the statistics. A collapse prediction software was developed and its veracity was also evaluated. At last the software was used to predict tunnel collapses. It effectively evaded the disaster. Establishing the platform can be subsequent perfect. The platform can also be applied to the risk assessment of other tunnel engineering.