Journal of Korea Water Resources Association (한국수자원학회논문집)

Korea Water Resources Association (한국수자원학회)
권호 표지
DOI QR코드

DOI QR Code

Development of index for flood risk assessment on national scale and future outlook

전국 단위 홍수위험도 평가를 위한 지수 개발과 미래 전망

  • Kim, Daeho (Department of Civil & Environmental Engineering., Seoul National University,) ;
  • Kim, Young-Oh (Department of Civil & Environmental Engineering., Seoul National University,) ;
  • Jee, Hee Won (Department of Civil & Environmental Engineering., Seoul National University,) ;
  • Kang, Tae-Ho (Institute of Construction & Environmental Engineering, Seoul National University)
  • 김대호 (서울대학교 건설환경공학부) ;
  • 김영오 (서울대학교 건설환경공학부) ;
  • 지희원 (서울대학교 건설환경공학부) ;
  • 강태호 (서울대학교 건설환경종합연구소)
  • Received : 2020.02.07
  • Accepted : 2020.03.13
  • Published : 2020.05.31
Download PDF
⟨ Previous Next ⟩

Abstract

Owing to climate change, the annual precipitation in Korea has increased since the 20th century, and it is projected to continue increasing in the future. This trend of increasing precipitation will raise the possibility of floods; hence, it is necessary to establish national adaptation plans for floods, based on a reasonable flood risk assessment. Therefore, this study focuses on developing a framework that can assess the flood risk across the country, as well as computing the flood risk index (FRI). The framework, which is based on IPCC AR5, is established as a combination of three indicators: hazard, exposure, and capacity. A data-based approach was used, and the weights of each component were assigned to improve the validity of the FRI. A Spearman correlation analysis between the FRI and flood damage verified that the index was capable of assessing potential flood damage. When predicting scenarios for future assessment using the HadGEM3-RA based on RCP 4.5 and 8.5, the flood risk tends to be lower in the early and mid-21st century, and it becomes higher at the end of the 21st century as compared with the present.

기후변화로 인하여 한국의 연 강수량은 20세기부터 증가해 왔으며 미래에도 계속 증가할 것이라 전망되고 있다. 이와 함께 홍수 발생 가능성이 동반 상승하고 있기에 합리적인 홍수위험도 평가에 기반한 국가 단위 적응정책 수립이 필요하다. 이에 본 연구는 전국의 홍수위험도를 일괄적으로 평가할 수 있는 체계를 정의하고 홍수위험지수(Flood Risk Index, FRI)를 산정했다. IPCC AR5의 개념을 참고하여 위험도를 위해, 노출, 대응능력의 조합으로 평가하는 체계를 확립하였다. FRI는 자료 기반으로 산출되었으며, 요소별 가중치를 부여하여 설명력 향상을 도모하였다. FRI와 피해자료간 스피어만(Spearman) 상관성 분석을 한 결과 적절한 수준으로 잠재적인 홍수피해 크기를 평가할 수 있다는 것이 검증되었다. 미래 홍수위험도 평가를 위해 HadGEM3-RA 기반의 RCP 4.5, 8.5 시나리오를 투영했을 때 21세기 초, 중반에는 약화되었다가 21세기 말엔 현재보다 높은 위험도를 보이는 경향이 있었다.

Keywords

References

  1. Balica, S.F., Douben, N., and Wright, N.G. (2009). "Flood vulnerability indices at varying spatial scales." Water science and Technology, Vol. 60, No. 10, pp. 2571-2580. https://doi.org/10.2166/wst.2009.183
  2. Balica, S.F., Popescu, I., Beevers, L., and Wright, N.G. (2013). "Parametric and physically based modelling techniques for flood risk and vulnerability assessment: A comparison." Environmental modelling and software, Vol. 41, pp. 84-92. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.envsoft.2012.11.002
  3. Birkmann, J. (2007). "Risk and vulnerability indicators at different scales: Applicability, usefulness and policy implications." Environmental hazards, Vol. 7, No. 1, pp. 20-31. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.envhaz.2007.04.002
  4. Birkmann, J. (2011). "First-and second-order adaptation to natural hazards and extreme events in the context of climate change." Natural Hazards, Vol. 58, No. 2, pp. 811-840. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11069-011-9806-8
  5. Brooks, N. (2003). "Vulnerability, risk and adaptation: A conceptual framework." Tyndall Centre for Climate Change Research Working Paper, Vol. 38, No. 38, pp. 1-16.
  6. Ghafouri-Azar, M., and Bae, D.-H. (2018). "Streamflow response to climate change during the wet and dry season in South Korea under a CMIP5 climate model." Journal of Korea Water Resources Association, Vol. 51, No. S-1, pp. 1091-1103.
  7. Huang, B., Polanski, S., and Cubasch, U. (2015). "Assessment of precipitation climatology in an ensemble of CORDEX-East Asia regional climate simulations." Climate Research, Vol. 64, pp. 141-158. https://doi.org/10.3354/cr01302
  8. International Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) (2007). IPCC fourth assessment report: WG2. Geneva, pp. 23-78.
  9. International Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) (2014), IPCC fifth assessment report: WG2. Geneva, pp. 37-94.
  10. Jang, O.J., and Kim, Y.-O. (2009). "Flood risk estimation using regional regression analysis." Journal of Korean Society of Hazard Mitigation, Vol. 9 No. 4, pp. 71-80.
  11. Jeung, S., Park, J., Yang, J., and Kim, B. (2019). "The future of extreme climate change in the Korean peninsula using national standard climate change scenarios and the ETCCDI index." Journal of Korean Society of Hazard Mitigation, Vol. 19, No. 7, pp. 105-115. https://doi.org/10.9798/kosham.2019.19.7.105
  12. Joo, H., Hong, S., Kim, K., Kim, S., and Kim, H.S. (2018). "Integrated index for flood risk assessment development using Bayesian network." Journal of the Korean Society of Hazard Mitigation, Vol. 18, No. 6, pp. 269-281. https://doi.org/10.9798/KOSHAM.2018.18.6.269
  13. Jung, S.W., Lee, D.H., Moon, Y.J., and Kim, K.H. (2001). "Potential flood damage (PFD) assessment." Proceedings of the Korea water resources association conference, pp. 601-606.
  14. Kang, J.E., and Lee, M.J. (2012). "Assessment of flood vulnerability to climate change using fuzzy model and GIS in Seoul." Journal of the Korean Association of Geographic Information Studies, Vol. 15, No. 3, pp. 119-136. https://doi.org/10.11108/kagis.2012.15.3.119
  15. Kim, D., Choi, C., Kim, J., Lee, J., Bae, Y., and Kim, H., S. (2018). "Analysis of heavy rain damage considering regional characteristics." Journal of Korean Society of Hazard Mitigation, Vol. 18, No. 4, pp. 311-320. https://doi.org/10.9798/kosham.2018.18.4.311
  16. Kim, D.K., Kim, Y.S., Hong, S.J., Ly, S., Jung, Y., and Kim, H.S. (2013). "The ETCCDI and frequency analysis using RCP scenarios." Journal of Wetlands Research, Vol. 15, No. 4, pp. 595-607. https://doi.org/10.17663/JWR.2013.15.4.595
  17. Kim, J., Park, M., and Joo, J. (2015). "Comparison of characteristics and spatial distribution tendency of daily precipitation based on the regional climate models for Korean Peninsula." Journal of Korean Society of Hazard Mitigation, Vol. 15, No. 4, pp. 59-70. https://doi.org/10.9798/KOSHAM.2015.15.4.59
  18. Kim, J.H., and Kim, Y.-O. (2003). "Improving potential flood damage." Annual Meeting of the Korean Society of Civil Engineers, KSCE, pp. 2373-2378.
  19. Kim, K., Lee, J., Keum, J., Park, M., and Kim, S. (2018). "Uncertainty of future intensity-duration-frequency curves using multi-regional climate models." Journal of Korean Society of Hazard Mitigation, Vol. 18, No. 6, pp. 405-416. https://doi.org/10.9798/KOSHAM.2018.18.6.405
  20. Kim, M., and Kim, G. (2018). "Analysis of the applicability of flood risk indices according to flood damage types." Journal of the Korean Society of Civil Engineers, Vol. 38, No. 1, pp. 29-39. https://doi.org/10.12652/Ksce.2018.38.1.0029
  21. Kim, Y., Lee, B., and Kim, T. (2019). "Development of a Typhoon Risk Index (TRI) based on records of typhoon damage." Journal of Korean Society of Hazard Mitigation, Vol. 19, No. 7, pp. 501-509. https://doi.org/10.9798/KOSHAM.2019.19.7.501
  22. Lee, J.J., Lee, J.S., Kim, B.I., and Park, J.Y. (2000). "Derivation of probable rainfall formula of individual zone based on the representative probability distribution." Journal of Korea Water Resources Association, Vol. 33, No. S1, pp. 124-129.
  23. Lim, K.S., Choi, S.J., Lee, D.R., and Moon, J.W. (2010). "Development of flood risk index using causal relationships of flood indicators." Journal of the Korean Society of Civil Engineers, Vol. 30, No. 1B, pp. 61-70.
  24. Ministry of Environment (ME) (2014). Korean climate change assessment report 2014. Korea, pp. 4-31.
  25. Ministry of Land, Infrastructure and Transport (MOLIT) (2006). Estimation of potential urban flood risk and damage (II). Korea, pp. 2-33.
  26. Ministry of Land, Infrastructure and Transport (MOLIT) (2016). Water Vison 2020 3rd edition. Korea, pp. 83-89.
  27. Ministry of the Interior and Safety (MOIS) (2017). 2017 Statistical yearbook of natural disaster. Korea, pp. 1-133.
  28. Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) (1993). Core set of indicators for environmental performance reviews: A synthesis report by the group on the state of the environment. environment monographs, Vol. 83. Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development, Paris, pp. 1-39.
  29. Oh, S.-G., Suh, M.-S., Lee, Y.-S., Ahn, J.-B., Cha, D.-H., Lee, D.-K., Hong, S.-Y., Min, S.-K., Park, S.-C., and Kang, H.-S. (2016). "Projections of high resolution climate changes for South Korea using multiple-regional climate models based on four RCP scenarios. Part 2: Precipitation." Asia-Pacific Journal of Atmospheric Sciences, Vol. 52, No. 2, pp. 171-189. https://doi.org/10.1007/s13143-016-0018-8
  30. Rovai, A.P., Baker, J.D., and Ponton, M.K. (2013). Social science research design and statistics: A practitioner's guide to research methods and IBM SPSS. Watertree Press LLC, Chesapeake, V.A, U.S., pp. 375-378.
  31. Sim, K.B., Lee, O., Kim, S., and Kim, E.S. (2015). "1-day probable maximum precipitation in accordance with AR5 RCPs in Korea." Journal of Korean Society of Hazard Mitigation, Vol. 15, No. 4, pp. 273-280. https://doi.org/10.9798/KOSHAM.2015.15.4.273
  32. Son, M.W., Sung, J.Y., Chung, E.S., and Jun, K.S. (2011). "Development of flood vulnerability index considering climate change." Journal of Korea Water Resources Association, Vol. 44, No. 3, pp. 231-248. https://doi.org/10.3741/JKWRA.2011.44.3.231
  33. Sorg, L., Medina, N., Feldmeyer, D., Sanchez, A., Vojinovic, Z., Birkmann, J., and Marchese, A. (2018). "Capturing the multifaceted phenomena of socioeconomic vulnerability." Natural Hazards, Vol. 92, No. 1, pp. 257-282. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11069-018-3207-1
  34. Tsakiris, G. (2007). "Practical application of risk and hazard concepts in proactive planning." European Water, Vol. 19, No. 20, pp. 47-56.
  35. Tsakiris, G. (2014). "Flood risk assessment: Concepts, modelling, applications." Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences, Vol. 14, No. 5, pp. 1361-1369. https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-14-1361-2014
  36. Turner, B.L., Kasperson, R.E., Matson, P.A., McCarthy, J.J., Corell, R.W., Christensen, L., Eckley, N., Kasperson, J.X., Luers, A., Martello, M.L., Polsky, C., Pulsipher, A., and Schiller, A. (2003). "A framework for vulnerability analysis in sustainability science." Proceedings of the national academy of sciences, Vol. 100, No. 14, pp. 8074-8079. https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1231335100
  37. Vojinovic, Z., Hammond, M., Golub, D., Hirunsalee, S., Weesakul, S., Meesuk, V., Medina, N., Sanchez, A., Kumara, S., and Abbott, M. (2016). "Holistic approach to flood risk assessment in areas with cultural heritage: A practical application in Ayutthaya, Thailand." Natural Hazards, Vol. 81, No. 1, pp. 589-616. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11069-015-2098-7
  38. Welle, T., and Birkmann, J. (2015). "The world risk index-an approach to assess risk and vulnerability on a global scale." Journal of Extreme Events, Vol. 2, No. 1, 1550003. https://doi.org/10.1142/S2345737615500037