• Title/Summary/Keyword: Risk-based assessment

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Assessment of the impact of climate variability on runoff change of middle-sized watersheds in Korea using Budyko hypothesis-based equation (Budyko 가설 기반 기후 탄력성을 고려한 기후변동이 우리나라 중권역 유출량 변화에 미치는 영향 평가)

  • Oh, Mi Ju;Hong, Dahee;Lim, Kyung Jin;Kwon, Hyun-Han;Kim, Tae-Woong
    • Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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    • v.57 no.4
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    • pp.237-248
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    • 2024
  • Watershed runoff that is an important component of the hydrological processes has been significantly altered by climate variability and human activities in many watersheds around the world. It is important to investigate the impacts of climate variability and human activities on watershed runoff change for water resource management. In this study, using watershed runoff data for 109 middle-sized watersheds in Korea, the impacts of climate variability and human activities on watershed runoff change were quantitatively evaluated. Using the Pittitt test, the analysis period was divided into two sub-periods, and the impacts of climate variability and human activities on the watershed runoff change were quantified using the Budyko hypothesis-based climate elasticity method. The overall results indicated that the relative contribution of climate variability and human activities to the watershed runoff change varied by middle-sized watersheds, and the dominant factors on the watershed runoff change were identified for each watershed among climate variability and human activities. The results of this study enable us to predict the watershed runoff change considering climate variability and watershed development plans, which provides useful information for establishing a water resource management plan to reduce the risk of hydrological disasters such as drought or flood.

CT Based 3-Dimensional Treatment Planning of Intracavitary Brachytherapy for Cancer of the Cervix : Comparison between Dose-Volume Histograms and ICRU Point Doses to the Rectum and Bladder

  • Hashim, Natasha;Jamalludin, Zulaikha;Ung, Ngie Min;Ho, Gwo Fuang;Malik, Rozita Abdul;Ee Phua, Vincent Chee
    • Asian Pacific Journal of Cancer Prevention
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    • v.15 no.13
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    • pp.5259-5264
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    • 2014
  • Background: CT based brachytherapy allows 3-dimensional (3D) assessment of organs at risk (OAR) doses with dose volume histograms (DVHs). The purpose of this study was to compare computed tomography (CT) based volumetric calculations and International Commission on Radiation Units and Measurements (ICRU) reference-point estimates of radiation doses to the bladder and rectum in patients with carcinoma of the cervix treated with high-dose-rate (HDR) intracavitary brachytherapy (ICBT). Materials and Methods: Between March 2011 and May 2012, 20 patients were treated with 55 fractions of brachytherapy using tandem and ovoids and underwent post-implant CT scans. The external beam radiotherapy (EBRT) dose was 48.6Gy in 27 fractions. HDR brachytherapy was delivered to a dose of 21 Gy in three fractions. The ICRU bladder and rectum point doses along with 4 additional rectal points were recorded. The maximum dose ($D_{Max}$) to rectum was the highest recorded dose at one of these five points. Using the HDRplus 2.6 brachyhtherapy treatment planning system, the bladder and rectum were retrospectively contoured on the 55 CT datasets. The DVHs for rectum and bladder were calculated and the minimum doses to the highest irradiated 2cc area of rectum and bladder were recorded ($D_{2cc}$) for all individual fractions. The mean $D_{2cc}$ of rectum was compared to the means of ICRU rectal point and rectal $D_{Max}$ using the Student's t-test. The mean $D_{2cc}$ of bladder was compared with the mean ICRU bladder point using the same statistical test. The total dose, combining EBRT and HDR brachytherapy, were biologically normalized to the conventional 2 Gy/fraction using the linear-quadratic model. (${\alpha}/{\beta}$ value of 10 Gy for target, 3 Gy for organs at risk). Results: The total prescribed dose was $77.5Gy{\alpha}/{\beta}10$. The mean dose to the rectum was $4.58{\pm}1.22Gy$ for $D_{2cc}$, $3.76{\pm}0.65Gy$ at $D_{ICRU}$ and $4.75{\pm}1.01Gy$ at $D_{Max}$. The mean rectal $D_{2cc}$ dose differed significantly from the mean dose calculated at the ICRU reference point (p<0.005); the mean difference was 0.82 Gy (0.48-1.19Gy). The mean EQD2 was $68.52{\pm}7.24Gy_{{\alpha}/{\beta}3}$ for $D_{2cc}$, $61.71{\pm}2.77Gy_{{\alpha}/{\beta}3}$ at $D_{ICRU}$ and $69.24{\pm}6.02Gy_{{\alpha}/{\beta}3}$ at $D_{Max}$. The mean ratio of $D_{2cc}$ rectum to $D_{ICRU}$ rectum was 1.25 and the mean ratio of $D_{2cc}$ rectum to $D_{Max}$ rectum was 0.98 for all individual fractions. The mean dose to the bladder was $6.00{\pm}1.90Gy$ for $D_{2cc}$ and $5.10{\pm}2.03Gy$ at $D_{ICRU}$. However, the mean $D_{2cc}$ dose did not differ significantly from the mean dose calculated at the ICRU reference point (p=0.307); the mean difference was 0.90 Gy (0.49-1.25Gy). The mean EQD2 was $81.85{\pm}13.03Gy_{{\alpha}/{\beta}3}$ for $D_{2cc}$ and $74.11{\pm}19.39Gy_{{\alpha}/{\beta}3}$ at $D_{ICRU}$. The mean ratio of $D_{2cc}$ bladder to $D_{ICRU}$ bladder was 1.24. In the majority of applications, the maximum dose point was not the ICRU point. On average, the rectum received 77% and bladder received 92% of the prescribed dose. Conclusions: OARs doses assessed by DVH criteria were higher than ICRU point doses. Our data suggest that the estimated dose to the ICRU bladder point may be a reasonable surrogate for the $D_{2cc}$ and rectal $D_{Max}$ for $D_{2cc}$. However, the dose to the ICRU rectal point does not appear to be a reasonable surrogate for the $D_{2cc}$.

An Analytic Case Study on the Management of an Upper-level General Hospital(2010-2012)

  • Park, Hyun-Suk;Lee, Jung-Min;Baek, Hong-Suck;Lee, Jun-Ho;Park, Sang-Sub
    • Journal of Korean Clinical Health Science
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    • v.2 no.1
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    • pp.1-16
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    • 2014
  • Purpose. For a more efficient hospital management, this study aims to provide basic data so that the hospital management and staff in charge of hospital administration may systematically classify and collect hospital information, by analyzing the ordinary characters of an upper-level general hospital system and its common-type balance sheet, common-type profit and loss statement and financial ratio. Methods. By using information about an upper-level general hospital in C Province, provided by Alio(www.alio.go.kr), a public organization information provision site, Health Insurance Review & Assessment Service(www.hira.or.kr) and Ministry of Health and Welfare(www.mw.go.kr), this study analyzed 3 year's data from 2010 to 2012 and provided basic data by analyzing the ordinary characters of an upper-level general hospital system, and its common-type balance sheet, common-type profit and loss statement and financial ratio. Results. After analyzing the ordinary characters, common-type balance sheet, common-type proft and loss statement and financial ration of this general hospital, based on the 2010 to 2012 data, this study came to the following conclusions. Firstly, out of all the 1,069 hospital staff, there were 272 doctors working for 24 medical departments, out of whom the majority was 33 physicians. Most of the nurses were third-class ones, and about 2,000 outpatients and 600 inpatients on average were treated per day. Secondly, as a result of analyzing the common-type balance sheet, this study discovered that intangible assets out of fixed assets accounted for 41%, the majority, out of which usable and profitable donation asset buildings were of great importance, and the liquid assets increased more in 2012 than 2011. In the financial structure, the ratio of liquid liabilities was over 50% out of all the liabilities in 2012, and the ratio of purchase payables was high as well. The ratio of fixed liabilities reached up to 40%, out of which the retirement benefit appropriation fund was quite high. The capital was over 80%, but the surplus was in a deficit state. Compared to the capital, the ratio of total liabilities was about 90%, which indicates the financial structure of this general hospital was vulnerable. Thirdly, as a result of analyzing the common-type profit and loss statement, this study found out that the medical profits from inpatients were higher than profits from outpatients. The material cost was related to the medical quality of this general hospital, and it was as high as 30% out of the total costs and was about 45% of the labor cost. This general hospital showed 10% in the ratio of non-medical profits, and it seemed because of government subsidies. The ratios of medical profits and current net income were gradually changing for the better in 2012, compared to 2011. Lastly, as a result of analyzing the financial ratio, it was found that the liquidity ratio kept decreasing, from 110.7% in 2010 and 102.0% in 2011 to 77.2% in 2012. Besides, it was analyzed that the liquidity ratio and the net working capital ratio greatly decreased, while the quick ratio and the liquid ratio kept decreasing. Conclusions. 1. It is necessary to take the risk management into more consideration, and particularly, it is needed to differentiate and manage the levels of risk in detail. 2. By considering the fact that investments into hospital infrastructures were mostly based on liabilities, it is needed to deal with the scale of losses when evaluating risks. 3. By reflecting the character that investments into hospital infrastructures were based on liabilities, it is necessary to consider the ratio of ordinary profits as well as the ratio of operating profits to sales, and it is also important to consider sales productivity factors, such as the sales amount per a sickbed, by comparing them with other hospitals. As for limitations of this study, there may be some problems in terms of data interpretation because of the lack of information about the number of inpatients and the number of outpatients per year, which are needed for the break-even point analysis. Besides, to suggest a direction for the improvement of hospital management through analyses, non-financial factors should be reflected, such as the trend of economy, medical policies, and politic backgrounds. However, this study only focused on the common-type balance sheet, common-type profit and loss statement and financial ratio, so this study is actually limited to generalizing all the factors by analyzing public data only.

Risk Analysis of Inorganic Arsenic in Foods (식품 중 무기비소의 위해 분석)

  • Yang, Seung-Hyun;Park, Ji-Su;Cho, Min-Ja;Choi, Hoon
    • Journal of Food Hygiene and Safety
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    • v.31 no.4
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    • pp.227-249
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    • 2016
  • Arsenic and its compounds vary in their toxicity according to the chemical forms. Inorganic arsenic is more toxic and known as carcinogen. The provisional tolerable weekly intake (PTWI) of $15{\mu}g/kg$ b.w./week established by the Joint FAO/WHO Expert Committee on Food Additives (JECFA) has been withdrawn, while the EFSA panel suggested $BMDL_{0.1}$ $0.3{\sim}8{\mu}g/kg\;b.w./day$ for cancers of the lung, skin and bladder, as well as skin lesions. Rice, seaweed and beverages are known as food being rich in inorganic arsenic. As(III) is the major form of inorganic arsenic in rice and anaerobic paddy soils, while most of inorganic arsenic in seaweed is present as As(V). The inorganic arsenic in food was extracted with solvent such as distilled water, methanol, nitric acid and so on in heat-assisted condition or at room temperature. Arsenic speciation analysis was based on ion-exchange chromatography and high-performance liquid chromatography equipped with atomic absorption spectrometry and inductively coupled plasma mass spectrometry. However, there has been no harmonized and standardized method for inorganic arsenic analysis internationally. The inorganic arsenic exposure from food has been estimated to range of $0.13{\sim}0.7{\mu}g/kg$ bw/day for European, American and Australian, and $0.22{\sim}5{\mu}g/kg$ bw/day for Asian. The maximum level (ML) for inorganic arsenic in food has established by EU, China, Australia and New Zealand, but are under review in Korea. Until now, several studies have conducted for reduction of inorganic arsenic in food. Inorganic arsenic levels in rice and seaweed were reduced by more polishing and washing, boiling and washing, respectively. Further research for international harmonization of analytical method, monitoring and risk assessment will be needed to strengthen safety management of inorganic arsenic of foods in Korea.

Soil Erosion Risk Assessment in the Upper Han River Basis Using Spatial Soil Erosion Map (분포형 토양침식지도를 이용한 한강상류지역 토양유실 위험성 평가)

  • Park, Chan-Won;Sonn, Yeon-Kyu;Zhang, Yong-Seon;Hong, S.-Young;Hyun, Byung-Keun;Song, Kwan-Cheol;Ha, Sang-Keun;Moon, Young-Hee
    • Korean Journal of Soil Science and Fertilizer
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    • v.43 no.6
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    • pp.828-836
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    • 2010
  • This study was conducted to evaluate soil erosion risk with a standard unit watershed in the upper Han river basin using the spatial soil erosion map according to the change of landuse. The study area is 14,577 $km^2$, which consists of 10 subbasins, 107 standard unit watersheds. Total annual soil loss and soil loss per area estimated were $895{\times}10^4\;Mg\;yr^{-1}$ and 6.1 Mg $ha^{-1}\;yr^{-1}$, respectively. A result of analysis with a subbasin as a unit showed that annual soil losses and soil loss per area in Namhan river basins was more than in Bukhan river ones. Predicted annual soil loss according to the landuse ranked as Forest & Grassland > Upland ${\gg}$ Urban & Fallow area > Paddy field > Orchard. Upland area covered 6.2% of the study area, but the contribution of total annul soil loss was 40.6% and that of Forest & Grassland was 44.2%. As a evaluation of soil erosion risk using the spatial soil erosion map, we could precisely conformed the potential hazardous region of soil erosion in each unit watersheds. The ratio of regions, graded as higher "Moderate" for annual soil loss, were respectively 8.7%, 7.9% and 7.8% in 1001, 1002 and 1003 subbasins in Namhan river basin. Most landuse of these area was upland, and these area is necessary to establish soil conservation practices to reduce soil erosion based on the field observation.

A Study on Optimal Site Selection for Automatic Mountain Meteorology Observation System (AMOS): the Case of Honam and Jeju Areas (최적의 산악기상관측망 적정위치 선정 연구 - 호남·제주 권역을 대상으로)

  • Yoon, Sukhee;Won, Myoungsoo;Jang, Keunchang
    • Korean Journal of Agricultural and Forest Meteorology
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    • v.18 no.4
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    • pp.208-220
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    • 2016
  • Automatic Mountain Meteorology Observation System (AMOS) is an important ingredient for several climatological and forest disaster prediction studies. In this study, we select the optimal sites for AMOS in the mountain areas of Honam and Jeju in order to prevent forest disasters such as forest fires and landslides. So, this study used spatial dataset such as national forest map, forest roads, hiking trails and 30m DEM(Digital Elevation Model) as well as forest risk map(forest fire and landslide), national AWS information to extract optimal site selection of AMOS. Technical methods for optimal site selection of the AMOS was the firstly used multifractal model, IDW interpolation, spatial redundancy for 2.5km AWS buffering analysis, and 200m buffering analysis by using ArcGIS. Secondly, optimal sites selected by spatial analysis were estimated site accessibility, observatory environment of solar power and wireless communication through field survey. The threshold score for the final selection of the sites have to be higher than 70 points in the field assessment. In the result, a total of 159 polygons in national forest map were extracted by the spatial analysis and a total of 64 secondary candidate sites were selected for the ridge and the top of the area using Google Earth. Finally, a total of 26 optimal sites were selected by quantitative assessment based on field survey. Our selection criteria will serve for the establishment of the AMOS network for the best observations of weather conditions in the national forests. The effective observation network may enhance the mountain weather observations, which leads to accurate prediction of forest disasters.

Prediction of Species Distribution Changes for Key Fish Species in Fishing Activity Protected Areas in Korea (국내 어업활동보호구역 주요 어종의 종분포 변화 예측)

  • Hyeong Ju Seok;Chang Hun Lee;Choul-Hee Hwang;Young Ryun Kim;Daesun Kim;Moon Suk Lee
    • Journal of the Korean Society of Marine Environment & Safety
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    • v.29 no.7
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    • pp.802-811
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    • 2023
  • Marine spatial planning (MSP) is a crucial element for rational allocation and sustainable use of marine areas. Particularly, Fishing Activity Protected Areas constitute essential zones accounting for 45.6% designated for sustainable fishing activities. However, the current assessment of these zones does not adequately consider future demands and potential values, necessitating appropriate evaluation methods and predictive tools for long-term planning. In this study, we selected key fish species (Scomber japonicus, Trichiurus lepturus, Engraulis japonicus, and Larimichthys polyactis) within the Fishing Activity Protected Area to predict their distribution and compare it with the current designated zones for evaluating the ability of the prediction tool. Employing the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) 6th Assessment Report scenarios (SSP1-2.6 and SSP5-8.5), we used species distribution models (such as MaxEnt) to assess the movement and distribution changes of these species owing to future variations. The results indicated a 30-50% increase in the distribution area of S. japonicus, T. lepturus, and L. polyactis, whereas the distribution area of E. japonicus decreased by approximately 6-11%. Based on these results, a species richness map for the four key species was created. Within the marine spatial planning boundaries, the overlap between areas rated "high" in species richness and the Fishing Activity Protected Area was approximately 15%, increasing to 21% under the RCP 2.6 scenario and 34% under the RCP 8.5 scenario. These findings can serve as scientific evidence for future evaluations of use zones or changes in reserve areas. The current and predicted distributions of species owing to climate change can address the limitations of current use zone evaluations and contribute to the development of plans for sustainable and beneficial use of marine resources.

The effects of a personalized nutrition intervention program on food security, health and nutritional status of low-income older adults in Seoul city (서울시 일부 취약계층 노인에서 맞춤형 영양중재 프로그램에 따른 식품안정성 확보 및 건강·영양상태 개선 효과)

  • Lee, Yeyeon;Yang, Narae;Shin, Minjeong;Lee, Kyung-Eun;Yoo, Chang Hee;Kim, Kirang
    • Journal of Nutrition and Health
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    • v.53 no.4
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    • pp.416-430
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    • 2020
  • Purpose: This study was conducted to assess the effects of a personalized nutritional intervention program on food security and health and nutritional status of elderly people in the city of Seoul. Methods: A total of 372 elderly adults aged 65 years or above who resided in Seoul were enrolled in this study. Personalized supplementary food supply and nutritional education based on chronic disease status, disability and cooking ability were implemented for 4 months. To evaluate the effectiveness of the program, nutrient intake, food security status, anemia status, chronic disease management, and frailty status, and prevalence of malnutrition (Mini Nutritional Assessment) were examined. Results: After the program, all subjects displayed significantly increased nutrient intake. Before the intervention, all subjects were in a state of food insecurity; however, after the intervention, 37.1% of the subjects were food secure. Moreover, the rates of being at risk of malnutrition and malnutrition in subjects were decreased and instead rate of those who improved to normal increased to 29.8% from 0% of normal rate before the prevention. The rate of subjects without anemia increased from 18.7% to 28.5% after the intervention. In addition, the rate of subjects with intensive or periodic management of chronic diseases decreased, while those with occasional management of chronic diseases increased from 0% to 4.6%. Furthermore, the rates of being at risk of frailty and frailty were decreased and the normal rate increased from 0% to 9.7% instead. Age group-based analysis showed that elderly people over 80 years showed less improvement in the management of the chronic disease status and the frailty status. Conclusion: Personalized supplementary food supplies and nutritional education improved not only the nutritional status but also disease status in vulnerable older adults, and the effects were more significant in adults aged less than 80 years.

A Direction of the Monitoring of Household Chemical Products in Aquatic Environments: The Necessities for a Trophic Magnification Factor (TMF) Research on Fish (다양한 수생태계에 적용 가능한 유해물질의 영양확대계수 (trophic magnification factor, TMF) 연구 - 생활화학제품에서 기인한 성분과 어류조사를 중심으로)

  • Eun-Ji Won;Ha-Eun Cho;Dokyun Kim;Seongjin Hong;Kyung-Hoon Shin
    • Korean Journal of Ecology and Environment
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    • v.55 no.3
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    • pp.185-200
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    • 2022
  • The risk of various hazardous substances in aquatic environment comprises not only the concentration of substances in the environmental medium but also their accumulation in fish through complex food web and the health risks to humans through the fish. In Korea, the monitoring of residual toxicant in aquatic ecosystems began in 2016 following the enforcement of the Acts on registration and evaluation for the management of chemicals used in daily life (consumer chemical products), and attention has been paid to potentially hazardous substances attributed to them. Recently, studies have been carried out to investigate the distribution of these hazardous substances in the ecosystem and calculate their emission factors. These include the accumulation and transport of substances, such as detergents, dyes, fragrances, cosmetics, and disinfectants, within trophic levels. This study summarizes the results of recently published research on the inflow and distribution of hazardous substances from consumer chemical products to the aquatic environment and presents the scientific implication. Based on studies on aquatic environment monitoring techniques, this study suggests research directions for monitoring the residual concentration and distribution of harmful chemical substances in aquatic ecosystems. In particular, this study introduces the directions for research on trophic position analysis using compound specific isotope analysis and trophic magnification factors, which are needed to fulfill the contemporary requirements of selecting target fish based on the survey of major fish that inhabit domestic waters and assessment of associated health risk. In addition, this study provides suggestions for future biota monitoring and chemical research in Korea.

Risk Analysis of Arsenic in Rice Using by HPLC-ICP-MS (HPLC-ICP-MS를 이용한 쌀의 비소 위해도 평가)

  • An, Jae-Min;Park, Dae-Han;Hwang, Hyang-Ran;Chang, Soon-Young;Kwon, Mi-Jung;Kim, In-Sook;Kim, Ik-Ro;Lee, Hye-Min;Lim, Hyun-Ji;Park, Jae-Ok;Lee, Gwang-Hee
    • Korean Journal of Environmental Agriculture
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    • v.37 no.4
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    • pp.291-301
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    • 2018
  • BACKGROUND: Rice is one of the main sources for inorganic arsenic among the consumed crops in the world population's diet. Arsenic is classified into Group 1 as it is carcinogenic for humans, according to the IARC. This study was carried out to assess dietary exposure risk of inorganic arsenic in husked rice and polished rice to the Korean population health. METHODS AND RESULTS: Total arsenic was determined using microwave device and ICP-MS. Inorganic arsenic was determined by ICP-MS coupled with HPLC system. The HPLC-ICP-MS analysis was optimized based on the limit of detection, limit of quantitation, and recovery ratio to be $0.73-1.24{\mu}g/kg$, $2.41-4.09{\mu}g/kg$, and 96.5-98.9%, respectively. The inorganic arsenic concentrations of daily exposure (included in body weight) were $4.97{\times}10^{-3}$ (${\geq}20$ years old) $-1.36{\times}10^{-2}$ (${\leq}2$ years old) ${\mu}g/kg\;b.w./day$ (PTWI 0.23-0.63%) by the husked rice, and $1.39{\times}10^{-1}$ (${\geq}20$ years old) $-3.21{\times}10^{-1}$ (${\leq}2$ years old) ${\mu}g/kg\;b.w./day$ (PTWI 6.47-15.00%) by the polished rice. CONCLUSION: The levels of overall exposure to total and inorganic arsenic by the husked and polished rice were far lower than the recommended levels of The Joint FAO/WHO Expert Committee on Food Additives (JECFA), indicating of little possibility of risk.