• Title/Summary/Keyword: Risk-based approach

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Electronic Roll Book using Electronic Bracelet.Child Safe-Guarding Device System (전자 팔찌를 이용한 전자 출석부.어린이 보호 장치 시스템)

  • Moon, Seung-Jin;Kim, Tae-Nam;Kim, Pan-Su
    • Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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    • v.17 no.4
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    • pp.143-155
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    • 2011
  • Lately electronic tagging policy for the sexual offenders was introduced in order to reduce and prevent sexual offences. However, most sexual offences against children happening these days are committed by the tagged offenders whose identities have been released. So, for the crime prevention, we need measures with which we could minimize the suffers more promptly and actively. This paper suggests a new system to relieve the sexual abuse related anxiety of the children and solve the problems that electronic bracelet has. Existing bracelets are only worn by serious criminals, and it's only for risk management and positioning, there is no way to protect the children who are the potential victims of sexual abuse and there actually happened some cases. So we suggest also letting the students(children) wear the LBS(Location Based Service) and USN(Ubiquitous Sensor Network) technology based electronic bracelets to monitor and figure out dangerous situations intelligently, so that we could prevent sexual offences against children beforehand, and while a crime is happening, we could judge the situation of the crime intelligently and take swift action to minimize the suffer. And by checking students' attendance and position, guardians could know where their children are in real time and could protect the children from not only sexual offences but also violent crimes against children like kidnapping. The overall system is like follows : RFID Tag for children monitors the approach of offenders. While an offender's RFID tag is approaching, it will transmit the situation and position as the first warning message to the control center and the guardians. When the offender is going far away, it turns to monitoring mode, and if the tag of the child or the offender is taken off or the child and offender stay at one position for 3~5 minutes or longer, then it will consider this as a dangerous situation, then transmit the emergency situations and position as the second warning message to the control center and the guardians, and ask for the dispatch of police to prevent the crime at the initial stage. The RFID module of criminals' electronic bracelets is RFID TAG, and the RFID module for the children is RFID receiver(reader), so wherever the offenders are, if an offender is at a place within 20m from a child, RFID module for children will transmit the situation every certain periods to the control center by the automatic response of the receiver. As for the positioning module, outdoors GPS or mobile communications module(CELL module)is used and UWB, WI-FI based module is used indoors. The sensor is set under the purpose of making it possible to measure the position coordinates even indoors, so that one could send his real time situation and position to the server of central control center. By using the RFID electronic roll book system of educational institutions and safety system installed at home, children's position and situation can be checked. When the child leaves for school, attendance can be checked through the electronic roll book, and when school is over the information is sent to the guardians. And using RFID access control turnstiles installed at the apartment or entrance of the house, the arrival of the children could be checked and the information is transmitted to the guardians. If the student is absent or didn't arrive at home, the information of the child is sent to the central control center from the electronic roll book or access control turnstiles, and look for the position of the child's electronic bracelet using GPS or mobile communications module, then send the information to the guardians and teacher so that they could report to the police immediately if necessary. Central management and control system is built under the purpose of monitoring dangerous situations and guardians' checking. It saves the warning and pattern data to figure out the areas with dangerous situation, and could help introduce crime prevention systems like CCTV with the highest priority. And by DB establishment personal data could be saved, the frequency of first and second warnings made, the terminal ID of the specific child and offender, warning made position, situation (like approaching, taken off of the electronic bracelet, same position for a certain time) and so on could be recorded, and the data is going to be used for preventing crimes. Even though we've already introduced electronic tagging to prevent recurrence of child sexual offences, but the crimes continuously occur. So I suggest this system to prevent crimes beforehand concerning the children's safety. If we make electronic bracelets easy to use and carry, and set the price reasonably so that many children can use, then lots of criminals could be prevented and we can protect the children easily. By preventing criminals before happening, it is going to be a helpful system for our safe life.

OBSTETRICIAN'S VIEW OF TEENAGE PREGNANCY:PRESENT STATUS, PREVENTION AND PSYCHIATRIC CONSULTATION (산과 의사가 인지한 10대 임신의 현황, 예방, 정신과 자문)

  • Kim, Eun-Young;Kim, Boong-Nyun;Hong, Kang-E;Lee, Young-Sik
    • Journal of the Korean Academy of Child and Adolescent Psychiatry
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    • v.13 no.1
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    • pp.117-128
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    • 2002
  • Objectives:For the purpose of obtaining the more vivid present status and prevention program of teenage pregnancy, this survey was done by Obstetricians, as study subject, who manage the pregnant teenager in real clinical situation. Methods:Structured survey form about teenage pregnancy was sent to 2,800 obstetricians. That form contained frequency, characteristics, decision making processes, and psychiatric aspects of the teenage pregnancy. 349 obstetricians replied that survey form and we analysed these datas. Results:(1) The trend of teenage pregnancy was mildly increased. (2) The most common cases were unwanted pregnancy by continuing sexual relationship with boyfriends rather than by forced, accidental sexual relationship with multiple partners. (3) The most common reason of labor was loss the time of artificial abotion. (4) Problems of pregnant girls' were conduct behaviors and poor informations about contraception rather than sexual abuse or mental retardation. (5) Most obstetricians percepted the necessity of psychiatric consultation, however psychiatric consultation was rare due to parents refusal and abscense of available psychiatric facility. (6) For the prevention of teenage pregnancy, the most important thing was practical education about contraception. Conclusions:Based on the result of this study, further study using structured interview schedule with pregnant girl is needed for the detecting risk factor of teenage pregnancy and effective systematic approach to pregnant girl.

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Design Strategies and Processes through the Concept of Resilience (리질리언스 개념을 통해서 본 설계 전략과 과정)

  • Choi, Hyeyoung;Seo, Young-Ai
    • Journal of the Korean Institute of Landscape Architecture
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    • v.46 no.5
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    • pp.44-58
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    • 2018
  • Cities face new challenges not only in natural disasters by climate change but also in social and economic fluctuations. With the existing simple reconstruction method, it is difficult to solve the overall problems that a city or region may face. As a new approach to cope with various changes, the concept of resilience is emerging. Resilience is also one of the themes of recent major urban design projects. Design with the concept of resilience is a new strategy that can deal with various changes of urban space, rather than a temporary trend. The purpose of this paper is to explore the design method by analyzing cases where the concept of resilience is employed. We aim to examine what kind of design strategies are needed for the resilience design and how this design process differ in character, as compared to general design projects. Cases for this study include the "Rebuild by Design" competition held in 2013 and the "Resilient by Design/Bay Area Challenge" competition held in 2017. This paper consists of literature reviews and case studies. The latter is divided into two aspects: content analysis based on the theory of resilience and characteristics of the design process. Cases are analyzed through literature reviews and process characteristics of resilience design in response to the general design process. The main categories for urban resilience used as the framework for analysis include: Urban Infrastructure, Social Dynamics, Economic Dynamics, Health and Wellbeing, Governance Networks, and Planning and Institutions. As a result, the aspects of resilience concepts considered and design strategies undertaken by each team were identified. Each team tried to connect all 6 categories to their design strategies, placing special value on the role of governance, a system that enables collaborative design and project persistency. In terms of the design process, the following characteristics were found: planning the whole project process in the pre-project phase, analyzing predictable socioeconomic risk factors in addition to physical vulnerabilities, aiming for landscape-oriented integrated design, and sustainable implementation strategies with specific operations and budget plans. This paper is meaningful to connect the concept of resilience, which has been discussed in various articles, to design strategy, and to explore the possibility of constructing a practical methodology by deriving the characteristics of the resilience design process. It remains a future task to research design strategies that apply the concept of resilience to various types of urban spaces, in addition to areas that are vulnerable to disasters.

The Characteristics of Child and Adolescent Suicide Attempters Admitted to a University Hospital (일 대학병원에 자살 시도 후 입원한 소아청소년들의 특성)

  • Bang, Yeon-Sik;Lee, Jinhee;Min, Seongho;Ahn, Joung-Sook;Park, Ki-Chang;Kim, Min-Hyuk
    • Korean Journal of Psychosomatic Medicine
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    • v.26 no.2
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    • pp.135-144
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    • 2018
  • Objectives : The purpose of this study was to identify the differences of demographic and clinical characteristics between child-adolescents who received medical inpatient care and non-hospitalized adolescents after suicide attempts. Methods : The study included 35 child-adolescents who were hospitalized (Admission group) and 114 child-adolescents who were not hospitalized (Non-Admission group) as a result of a suicide attempt from 2009 to 2015. We compared sociodemographic, clinical, and suicide attempt-related characteristics through a chi-square test and logistic regression analysis to evaluate the differences between the two groups. Results : Child-adolescents of this study most commonly attempted suicide by poisoning, and for motivation of interpersonal problems. Admission group had significantly fewer attempts through injury by sharp objects (${\chi}^2=4.374$, p=0.037) and attempted suicide with a higher chance of actually dying when compared to Risk-Rescue Rating Scale (t=1.981, p=0.049). In addition, Admission group had relatively common motivation for academic problems (${\chi}^2=12.082$, p=0.001) and less motivation for interpersonal difficulties. (${\chi}^2=9.869$, p=0.002) Psychiatric diagnosis at the time of visiting the emergency department showed higher rates of depression in the admission group than Non-Admission group (${\chi}^2=8.649$, p=0.003). The results of logistic regression showed that depression affects hospitalization (OR=2.783, 95% CI 1.092-7.089, p=0.032). Conclusions : This study is meaningful in that it revealed the social and clinical characteristics of all child-adolescents who were hospitalized at a university hospital after attempting suicide. This study identified differences in motivation, methods, and psychiatric diagnosis of hospitalized adolescents and those who were not. Therefore, the results may help adolescent suicide attempters to get a discriminatory approach based on their admission.

A Study on the Management of Manhwa Contents Records and Archives (만화기록 관리 방안 연구)

  • Kim, Seon Mi;Kim, Ik Han
    • The Korean Journal of Archival Studies
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    • no.28
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    • pp.35-81
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    • 2011
  • Manhwa is a mass media (to expose all faces of an era such as politics, society, cultures, etc with the methodology of irony, parody, etc). Since the Manhwa records is primary culture infrastructure, it can create the high value-added industry by connecting with fancy, character, game, movie, drama, theme park, advertising business. However, due to lack of active and systematic aquisition system, as precious Manhwa manuscript is being lost every year and the contents hard to preserve such as Manhwa content in the form of electronic records are increasing, the countermeasure of Manhwa contents management is needed desperately. In this study, based on these perceptions, the need of Manhwa records management is examined, and the characteristics and the components of Manhwa records were analyzed. And at the same time, the functions of record management process reflecting the characteristics of Manhwa records were extracted by analyzing various cases of overseas Cartoon Archives. And then, the framework of record-keeping regime was segmented into each of acquisition management service areas and the general Manhwa records archiving strategy, which manages the Manhwa contents records, was established and suggested. The acquired Manhwa content records will secure the context among records and warrant the preservation of records and provide diverse access points by reflecting multi classification and multi-level descriptive element. The Manhwa records completed the intellectual arrangement will be preserved after the conservation in an environment equipped with preservation facilities or preserved using digital format in case of electronic records or when there is potential risk of damaging the records. Since the purpose of the Manhwa records is to use them, the information may be provided to diverse classes of users through the exhibition, the distribution, and the development of archival information content. Since the term of "Manhwa records" is unfamiliar yet and almost no study has been conducted in the perspective of records management, it will be the limit of this study only presenting acquisition strategy, management and service strategy of Manhwa contents and suggesting simple examples. However, if Manhwa records management strategy are possibly introduced practically to Manhwa manuscript repositories through archival approach, it will allow systematic acquisition, preservation, arrangement of Manhwa records and will contribute greatly to form a foundation for future Korean culture contents management.

A Correlation Analysis between International Oil Price Fluctuations and Overseas Construction Order Volumes using Statistical Data (통계 데이터를 활용한 국제 유가와 해외건설 수주액의 상관성 분석)

  • Park, Hwan-Pyo
    • Journal of the Korea Institute of Building Construction
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    • v.24 no.2
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    • pp.273-284
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    • 2024
  • This study investigates the impact of international oil price fluctuations on overseas construction orders secured by domestic and foreign companies. The analysis employs statistical data spanning the past 20 years, encompassing international oil prices, overseas construction orders from domestic firms, and new overseas construction orders from the top 250 global construction companies. The correlation between these variables is assessed using correlation coefficients(R), determination coefficients(R2), and p-values. The results indicate a strong positive correlation between international oil prices and overseas construction orders. The correlation coefficient between domestic overseas construction orders and oil prices is found to be 0.8 or higher, signifying a significant influence. Similarly, a high correlation coefficient of 0.76 is observed between oil prices and new orders from leading global construction companies. Further analysis reveals a particularly strong correlation between oil prices and overseas construction orders in Asia and the Middle East, potentially due to the prevalence of oil-related projects in these regions. Additionally, a high correlation is observed between oil prices and orders for industrial facilities compared to architectural projects. This suggests an increase in plant construction volumes driven by fluctuations in oil prices. Based on these findings, the study proposes an entry strategy for navigating oil price volatility and maintaining competitiveness in the overseas construction market. Key recommendations include diversifying project locations and supplier bases; utilizing hedging techniques for exchange rate risk management, adapting to local infrastructure and market conditions, establishing local partnerships and securing skilled local labor, implementing technological innovations and digitization at construction sites to enhance productivity and cost reduction The insights gained from this study, coupled with the proposed overseas expansion strategies, offer valuable guidance for mitigating risks in the global construction market and fostering resilience in response to international oil price fluctuations. This approach is expected to strengthen the competitiveness of domestic and foreign construction firms seeking success in the international arena.

APPLICATION OF FUZZY SET THEORY IN SAFEGUARDS

  • Fattah, A.;Nishiwaki, Y.
    • Proceedings of the Korean Institute of Intelligent Systems Conference
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    • 1993.06a
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    • pp.1051-1054
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    • 1993
  • The International Atomic Energy Agency's Statute in Article III.A.5 allows it“to establish and administer safeguards designed to ensure that special fissionable and other materials, services, equipment, facilities and information made available by the Agency or at its request or under its supervision or control are not used in such a way as to further any military purpose; and to apply safeguards, at the request of the parties, to any bilateral or multilateral arrangement, or at the request of a State, to any of that State's activities in the field of atomic energy”. Safeguards are essentially a technical means of verifying the fulfilment of political obligations undertaken by States and given a legal force in international agreements relating to the peaceful uses of nuclear energy. The main political objectives are: to assure the international community that States are complying with their non-proliferation and other peaceful undertakings; and to deter (a) the diversion of afeguarded nuclear materials to the production of nuclear explosives or for military purposes and (b) the misuse of safeguarded facilities with the aim of producing unsafeguarded nuclear material. It is clear that no international safeguards system can physically prevent diversion. The IAEA safeguards system is basically a verification measure designed to provide assurance in those cases in which diversion has not occurred. Verification is accomplished by two basic means: material accountancy and containment and surveillance measures. Nuclear material accountancy is the fundamental IAEA safeguards mechanism, while containment and surveillance serve as important complementary measures. Material accountancy refers to a collection of measurements and other determinations which enable the State and the Agency to maintain a current picture of the location and movement of nuclear material into and out of material balance areas, i. e. areas where all material entering or leaving is measurab e. A containment measure is one that is designed by taking advantage of structural characteristics, such as containers, tanks or pipes, etc. To establish the physical integrity of an area or item by preventing the undetected movement of nuclear material or equipment. Such measures involve the application of tamper-indicating or surveillance devices. Surveillance refers to both human and instrumental observation aimed at indicating the movement of nuclear material. The verification process consists of three over-lapping elements: (a) Provision by the State of information such as - design information describing nuclear installations; - accounting reports listing nuclear material inventories, receipts and shipments; - documents amplifying and clarifying reports, as applicable; - notification of international transfers of nuclear material. (b) Collection by the IAEA of information through inspection activities such as - verification of design information - examination of records and repo ts - measurement of nuclear material - examination of containment and surveillance measures - follow-up activities in case of unusual findings. (c) Evaluation of the information provided by the State and of that collected by inspectors to determine the completeness, accuracy and validity of the information provided by the State and to resolve any anomalies and discrepancies. To design an effective verification system, one must identify possible ways and means by which nuclear material could be diverted from peaceful uses, including means to conceal such diversions. These theoretical ways and means, which have become known as diversion strategies, are used as one of the basic inputs for the development of safeguards procedures, equipment and instrumentation. For analysis of implementation strategy purposes, it is assumed that non-compliance cannot be excluded a priori and that consequently there is a low but non-zero probability that a diversion could be attempted in all safeguards ituations. An important element of diversion strategies is the identification of various possible diversion paths; the amount, type and location of nuclear material involved, the physical route and conversion of the material that may take place, rate of removal and concealment methods, as appropriate. With regard to the physical route and conversion of nuclear material the following main categories may be considered: - unreported removal of nuclear material from an installation or during transit - unreported introduction of nuclear material into an installation - unreported transfer of nuclear material from one material balance area to another - unreported production of nuclear material, e. g. enrichment of uranium or production of plutonium - undeclared uses of the material within the installation. With respect to the amount of nuclear material that might be diverted in a given time (the diversion rate), the continuum between the following two limiting cases is cons dered: - one significant quantity or more in a short time, often known as abrupt diversion; and - one significant quantity or more per year, for example, by accumulation of smaller amounts each time to add up to a significant quantity over a period of one year, often called protracted diversion. Concealment methods may include: - restriction of access of inspectors - falsification of records, reports and other material balance areas - replacement of nuclear material, e. g. use of dummy objects - falsification of measurements or of their evaluation - interference with IAEA installed equipment.As a result of diversion and its concealment or other actions, anomalies will occur. All reasonable diversion routes, scenarios/strategies and concealment methods have to be taken into account in designing safeguards implementation strategies so as to provide sufficient opportunities for the IAEA to observe such anomalies. The safeguards approach for each facility will make a different use of these procedures, equipment and instrumentation according to the various diversion strategies which could be applicable to that facility and according to the detection and inspection goals which are applied. Postulated pathways sets of scenarios comprise those elements of diversion strategies which might be carried out at a facility or across a State's fuel cycle with declared or undeclared activities. All such factors, however, contain a degree of fuzziness that need a human judgment to make the ultimate conclusion that all material is being used for peaceful purposes. Safeguards has been traditionally based on verification of declared material and facilities using material accountancy as a fundamental measure. The strength of material accountancy is based on the fact that it allows to detect any diversion independent of the diversion route taken. Material accountancy detects a diversion after it actually happened and thus is powerless to physically prevent it and can only deter by the risk of early detection any contemplation by State authorities to carry out a diversion. Recently the IAEA has been faced with new challenges. To deal with these, various measures are being reconsidered to strengthen the safeguards system such as enhanced assessment of the completeness of the State's initial declaration of nuclear material and installations under its jurisdiction enhanced monitoring and analysis of open information and analysis of open information that may indicate inconsistencies with the State's safeguards obligations. Precise information vital for such enhanced assessments and analyses is normally not available or, if available, difficult and expensive collection of information would be necessary. Above all, realistic appraisal of truth needs sound human judgment.

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Acute Respiratory Distress Syndrome in Respiratory Intensive Care Unit (호흡기계 중환자실에서 치료 관리된 급성호흡곤란증후군의 임상특성)

  • Moon, Seung-Hyug;Song, Sang-Hoon;Jung, Ho-Seuk;Yeun, Dong-Jin;Uh, Su-Tack;Kim, Yong-Hoon;Park, Choon-Sik
    • Tuberculosis and Respiratory Diseases
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    • v.45 no.6
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    • pp.1252-1264
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    • 1998
  • Background : Patients with established ARDS have a mortality rate that exceeds 50 percent despite of intensive care including artificial ventilation modality, Mortality has been associated with sepsis and organ failure preceding or following ARDS ; APACHE II score ; old age and predisposing factors. Revised ventilator strategy over last 10 years especially at ARDS appeared to improve the mortality of it. We retrospectively investigated 40 ARDS patients of respiratory-care unit to examine how these factors influence outcome. Methods : A retrospective investigation of 40 ARDS patients in respiratory-care unit with ventilator management over 46 months was performed. We investigated the clinical characteristics such as a risk factor, cause of death and mortality, and also parameters such as APACHE II score, number of organ dysfunction, and hypoxia score (HS, $PaO_2/FIO_2$) at day 1, 3, 7 of severe acute lung injury, and simultaneously the PEEP level and tidal volume. Results : Clinical conditions associated with ARDS were sepsis 50%, pneumonia 30%, aspiration pneumonia 20%, and mortality rate based on the etiology of ARDS was sepsis 50%, pneumonia 67%(p<0.01 vs sepsis), aspiration pneumonia 38%. Overall mortality rate was 60%. In 28 day-nonsurvivors, leading cause of death was severe sepsis(42.9%) followed by MOF(28.6%), respiratory failure(19.1 %), and others(9.5%). There were no differences in variables of age, sex, APACHE II score, HS, and numbers of organ dysfunction at day 1 of ARDS between 28-days survivor and nonsurvivors. In view of categorized variables of age(>70), APACHE II score(>26), HS(<150) at day 1 of ARDS, there were significant differences between 28-days survivor and nonsurvivors(p<0.05). After day 1 of ARDS, the survivors have improved their APACHE II score, HS, numbers of organ dysfunction over the first 3d to 7d, but nonsurvivors did not improve over a seven-day course. There were significant differences in APACHE II score and numbers of organ dysfunction of day 3, 7 of ARDS, and HS of day 7 of ARDS between survivors and nonsurvivors(p<0.05). Fatality rate of ARDS has been declined from 68% to less than 40% between 1995 and 1998. There were no differences in APACHE II score, HS, numbers of organ dysfunction, old age at presentation of ARDS. In last years, mean PEEP level was significantly higher and mean tidal volume was significantly lower than previous years during seven days of ARDS(p<0.01). Conclusions : Improvement of HS, APACHE II score, organ dysfunction over the first 3d to 7d is associated with increased survival Decline in ARDS fatality rates between 1995 and 1998 seems that this trend must be attributed to improved supportive therapy including at least high PEEP instead of conventional-least PEEP approach in ventilator management of acute respiratory distress syndrome.

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Development of a Stock Trading System Using M & W Wave Patterns and Genetic Algorithms (M&W 파동 패턴과 유전자 알고리즘을 이용한 주식 매매 시스템 개발)

  • Yang, Hoonseok;Kim, Sunwoong;Choi, Heung Sik
    • Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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    • v.25 no.1
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    • pp.63-83
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    • 2019
  • Investors prefer to look for trading points based on the graph shown in the chart rather than complex analysis, such as corporate intrinsic value analysis and technical auxiliary index analysis. However, the pattern analysis technique is difficult and computerized less than the needs of users. In recent years, there have been many cases of studying stock price patterns using various machine learning techniques including neural networks in the field of artificial intelligence(AI). In particular, the development of IT technology has made it easier to analyze a huge number of chart data to find patterns that can predict stock prices. Although short-term forecasting power of prices has increased in terms of performance so far, long-term forecasting power is limited and is used in short-term trading rather than long-term investment. Other studies have focused on mechanically and accurately identifying patterns that were not recognized by past technology, but it can be vulnerable in practical areas because it is a separate matter whether the patterns found are suitable for trading. When they find a meaningful pattern, they find a point that matches the pattern. They then measure their performance after n days, assuming that they have bought at that point in time. Since this approach is to calculate virtual revenues, there can be many disparities with reality. The existing research method tries to find a pattern with stock price prediction power, but this study proposes to define the patterns first and to trade when the pattern with high success probability appears. The M & W wave pattern published by Merrill(1980) is simple because we can distinguish it by five turning points. Despite the report that some patterns have price predictability, there were no performance reports used in the actual market. The simplicity of a pattern consisting of five turning points has the advantage of reducing the cost of increasing pattern recognition accuracy. In this study, 16 patterns of up conversion and 16 patterns of down conversion are reclassified into ten groups so that they can be easily implemented by the system. Only one pattern with high success rate per group is selected for trading. Patterns that had a high probability of success in the past are likely to succeed in the future. So we trade when such a pattern occurs. It is a real situation because it is measured assuming that both the buy and sell have been executed. We tested three ways to calculate the turning point. The first method, the minimum change rate zig-zag method, removes price movements below a certain percentage and calculates the vertex. In the second method, high-low line zig-zag, the high price that meets the n-day high price line is calculated at the peak price, and the low price that meets the n-day low price line is calculated at the valley price. In the third method, the swing wave method, the high price in the center higher than n high prices on the left and right is calculated as the peak price. If the central low price is lower than the n low price on the left and right, it is calculated as valley price. The swing wave method was superior to the other methods in the test results. It is interpreted that the transaction after checking the completion of the pattern is more effective than the transaction in the unfinished state of the pattern. Genetic algorithms(GA) were the most suitable solution, although it was virtually impossible to find patterns with high success rates because the number of cases was too large in this simulation. We also performed the simulation using the Walk-forward Analysis(WFA) method, which tests the test section and the application section separately. So we were able to respond appropriately to market changes. In this study, we optimize the stock portfolio because there is a risk of over-optimized if we implement the variable optimality for each individual stock. Therefore, we selected the number of constituent stocks as 20 to increase the effect of diversified investment while avoiding optimization. We tested the KOSPI market by dividing it into six categories. In the results, the portfolio of small cap stock was the most successful and the high vol stock portfolio was the second best. This shows that patterns need to have some price volatility in order for patterns to be shaped, but volatility is not the best.

An Intervention Study on Integration of Family Planning and Maternal/Infant Care Services in Rural Korea (가족계획과 모자보건 통합을 위한 조산원의 투입효과 분석 -서산지역의 개입연구 평가보고-)

  • Bang, Sook;Han, Seung-Hyun;Lee, Chung-Ja;Ahn, Moon-Young;Lee, In-Sook;Kim, Eun-Shil;Kim, Chong-Ho
    • Journal of Preventive Medicine and Public Health
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    • v.20 no.1 s.21
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    • pp.165-203
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    • 1987
  • This project was a service-cum-research effort with a quasi-experimental study design to examine the health benefits of an integrated Family Planning (FP)/Maternal & Child health (MCH) Service approach that provides crucial factors missing in the present on-going programs. The specific objectives were: 1) To test the effectiveness of trained nurse/midwives (MW) assigned as change agents in the Health Sub-Center (HSC) to bring about the changes in the eight FP/MCH indicators, namely; (i)FP/MCH contacts between field workers and their clients (ii) the use of effective FP methods, (iii) the inter-birth interval and/or open interval, (iv) prenatal care by medically qualified personnel, (v) medically supervised deliveries, (vi) the rate of induced abortion, (vii) maternal and infant morbidity, and (viii) preinatal & infant mortality. 2) To measure the integrative linkage (contacts) between MW & HSC workers and between HSC and clients. 3) To examine the organizational or administrative factors influencing integrative linkage between health workers. Study design; The above objectives called for quasi-experimental design setting up a study and control area with and without a midwife. An active intervention program (FP/MCH minimum 'package' program) was conducted for a 2 year period from June 1982-July 1984 in Seosan County and 'before and after' surveys were conducted to measure the change. Service input; This study was undertaken by the Soonchunhyang University in collaboration with WHO. After a baseline survery in 1981, trained nurses/midwives were introduced into two health sub-centers in a rural setting (Seosan county) for a 2 year period from 1982 to 1984. A major service input was the establishment of midwifery services in the existing health delivery system with emphasis on nurse/midwife's role as the link between health workers (nurse aids) and village health workers, and the referral of risk patients to the private physician (OBGY specialist). An evaluation survey was made in August 1984 to assess the effectiveness of this alternative integrated approach in the study areas in comparison with the control area which had normal government services. Method of evaluation; a. In this study, the primary objective was first to examine to what extent the FP/MCH package program brought about changes in the pre-determined eight indicators (outcome and impact measures) and the following relationship was first analyzed; b. Nevertheless, this project did not automatically accept the assumption that if two or more activities were integrated, the results would automatically be better than a non-integrated or categorical program. There is a need to assess the 'integration process' itself within the package program. The process of integration was measured in terms of interactive linkages, or the quantity & quality of contacts between workers & clients and among workers. Intergrative linkages were hypothesized to be influenced by organizational factors at the HSC clinic level including HSC goals, sltrurture, authority, leadership style, resources, and personal characteristics of HSC staff. The extent or degree of integration, as measured by the intensity of integrative linkages, was in turn presumed to influence programme performance. Thus as indicated diagrammatically below, organizational factors constituted the independent variables, integration as the intervening variable and programme performance with respect to family planning and health services as the dependent variable: Concerning organizational factors, however, due to the limited number of HSCs (2 in the study area and 3 in the control area), they were studied by participatory observation of an anthropologist who was independent of the project. In this observation, we examined whether the assumed integration process actually occurred or not. If not, what were the constraints in producing an effective integration process. Summary of Findings; A) Program effects and impact 1. Effects on FP use: During this 2 year action period, FP acceptance increased from 58% in 1981 to 78% in 1984 in both the study and control areas. This increase in both areas was mainly due to the new family planning campaign driven by the Government for the same study period. Therefore, there was no increment of FP acceptance rate due to additional input of MW to the on-going FP program. But in the study area, quality aspects of FP were somewhat improved, having a better continuation rate of IUDs & pills and more use of effective Contraceptive methods in comparison with the control area. 2. Effects of use of MCH services: Between the study and control areas, however, there was a significant difference in maternal and child health care. For example, the coverage of prenatal care was increased from 53% for 1981 birth cohort to 75% for 1984 birth cohort in the study area. In the control area, the same increased from 41% (1981) to 65% (1984). It is noteworthy that almost two thirds of the recent birth cohort received prenatal care even in the control area, indicating that there is a growing demand of MCH care as the size of family norm becomes smaller 3. There has been a substantive increase in delivery care by medical professions in the study area, with an annual increase rate of 10% due to midwives input in the study areas. The project had about two times greater effect on postnatal care (68% vs. 33%) at delivery care(45.2% vs. 26.1%). 4. The study area had better reproductive efficiency (wanted pregancies with FP practice & healthy live births survived by one year old) than the control area, especially among women under 30 (14.1% vs. 9.6%). The proportion of women who preferred the 1st trimester for their first prenatal care rose significantly in the study area as compared to the control area (24% vs 13%). B) Effects on Interactive Linkage 1. This project made a contribution in making several useful steps in the direction of service integration, namely; i) The health workers have become familiar with procedures on how to work together with each other (especially with a midwife) in carrying out their work in FP/MCH and, ii) The health workers have gotten a feeling of the usefulness of family health records (statistical integration) in identifying targets in their own work and their usefulness in caring for family health. 2. On the other hand, because of a lack of required organizational factors, complete linkage was not obtained as the project intended. i) In regards to the government health worker's activities in terms of home visiting there was not much difference between the study & control areas though the MW did more home visiting than Government health workers. ii) In assessing the service performance of MW & health workers, the midwives balanced their workload between 40% FP, 40% MCH & 20% other activities (mainly immunization). However, $85{\sim}90%$ of the services provided by the health workers were other than FP/MCH, mainly for immunizations such as the encephalitis campaign. In the control area, a similar pattern was observed. Over 75% of their service was other than FP/MCH. Therefore, the pattern shows the health workers are a long way from becoming multipurpose workers even though the government is pushing in this direction. 3. Villagers were much more likely to visit the health sub-center clinic in the study area than in the control area (58% vs.31%) and for more combined care (45% vs.23%). C) Organization factors (admistrative integrative issues) 1. When MW (new workers with higher qualification) were introduced to HSC, it was noted that there were conflicts between the existing HSC workers (Nurse aids with less qualification than MW) and the MW for the beginning period of the project. The cause of the conflict was studied by an anthropologist and it was pointed out that these functional integration problems stemmed from the structural inadequacies of the health subcenter organization as indicated below; i) There is still no general consensus about the objectives and goals of the project between the project staff and the existing health workers. ii) There is no formal linkage between the responsibility of each member's job in the health sub-center. iii) There is still little chance for midwives to play a catalytic role or to establish communicative networks between workers in order to link various knowledge and skills to provide better FP/MCH services in the health sub-center. 2. Based on the above findings the project recommended to the County Chief (who has power to control the administrative staff and the technical staff in his county) the following ; i) In order to solve the conflicts between the individual roles and functions in performing health care activities, there must be goals agreed upon by both. ii) The health sub·center must function as an autonomous organization to undertake the integration health project. In order to do that, it is necessary to support administrative considerations, and to establish a communication system for supervision and to control of the health sub-centers. iii) The administrative organization, tentatively, must be organized to bind the health worker's midwive's and director's jobs by an organic relationship in order to achieve the integrative system under the leadership of health sub-center director. After submitting this observation report, there has been better understanding from frequent meetings & communication between HW/MW in FP/MCH work as the program developed. Lessons learned from the Seosan Project (on issues of FP/MCH integration in Korea); 1) A majority or about 80% of the couples are now practicing FP. As indicated by the study, there is a growing demand from clients for the health system to provide more MCH services than FP in order to maintain the achieved small size of family through FP practice. It is fortunate to see that the government is now formulating a MCH policy for the year 2,000 and revising MCH laws and regulations to emphasize more MCH care for achieving a small size family through family planning practice. 2) Goal consensus in FP/MCH shouBd be made among the health workers It administrators, especially to emphasize the need of care of 'wanted' child. But there is a long way to go to realize the 'real' integration of FP into MCH in Korea, unless there is a structural integration FP/MCH because a categorical FP is still first priority to reduce the rate of population growth for economic reasons but not yet for health/welfare reasons in practice. 3) There should be more financial allocation: (i) a midwife should be made available to help to promote the MCH program and coordinate services, (in) there should be a health sub·center director who can provide leadership training for managing the integrated program. There is a need for 'organizational support', if the decision of integration is made to obtain benefit from both FP & MCH. In other words, costs should be paid equally to both FP/MCH. The integration slogan itself, without the commitment of paying such costs, is powerless to advocate it. 4) Need of management training for middle level health personnel is more acute as the Government has already constructed 90 MCH centers attached to the County Health Center but without adequate manpower, facilities, and guidelines for integrating the work of both FP and MCH. 5) The local government still considers these MCH centers only as delivery centers to take care only of those visiting maternity cases. The MCH center should be a center for the managment of all pregnancies occurring in the community and the promotion of FP with a systematic and effective linkage of resources available in the county such as i.e. Village Health Worker, Community Health Practitioner, Health Sub-center Physicians & Health workers, Doctors and Midwives in MCH center, OBGY Specialists in clinics & hospitals as practiced by the Seosan project at primary health care level.

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