• Title/Summary/Keyword: Risk value

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Process for Risk Severity Estimation of Weapon System Development Project using Parametric Estimation Method/Linear Kalman Filter (모수 추정기법/선형 칼만 필터를 이용한 무기체계개발 프로젝트 위험 요소의 영향도 추정 프로세스)

  • Lee, Seung-Yup
    • Journal of the Korea Academia-Industrial cooperation Society
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    • v.19 no.6
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    • pp.567-574
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    • 2018
  • Risk management is a method to 1) identify risks that can adversely affect the cost, schedule, and target achievement performance of a system development project, and 2) manage the identified risks based on the severity and likelihood assigned to each risk item. Risk management is applicable to various fields, since it can manage the cost/schedule and effectively guides accomplishing the target performance by identifying and managing the risks in advance, which necessitates many concurrent studies. This paper proposes a procedure to estimate the severity value for a risk item using a Kalman filter. It is assumed that the severity can be expressed as an equation consisting of cost/schedule loss during the risk event. A linear Kalman filter is used to reduce the error between the true and estimated values, which can eventually save resources spent on the risk management procedure. A simulation test case was conducted to demonstrate the validity of the proposed method.

Estimating Values of Statistical Lives using Choice Experiment Method (선택실험법을 이용한 확률적 인간생명가치의 추정)

  • Shin, Young Chul
    • Environmental and Resource Economics Review
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    • v.16 no.3
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    • pp.683-699
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    • 2007
  • This study applied the choice experiment (CE) method to measure values of statistical lives from multi-attributed mortality risk reduction choices. The four characteristics of mortality risk (i.e. cause of death, voluntariness of mortality risk, timing of death, magnitude of mortality risk reduction) are utilized to design the alternatives of choice sets. The estimation results for the multinomial logit model show that individuals are willing to pay 27,930 won per year for a change from the status quo to a $\frac{1}{100}$ mortality risk reduction for 10 years, 116,773 won per year for mortality risk reduction associated with adults, 97,682 won per year for voluntary mortality risk reduction, 77,234 won per year for involuntary mortality risk reduction. There were several estimates of VSL related to different attributes of mortality risk. The mean VSLs of infant/child/young adult ranged from 1,165 million won to 1,367 million won. The mean VSLs ranged from 1,631 million won to 1,833 million won for adult, and were between 1,128 million won and 1,330 million won for old person.

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Assessment of Chemical Risks in Moroccan Medical Biology Laboratories in Accordance with the CLP Regulation

  • Mourry, Ghita E.;Alami, Rachid;Elyadini, Adil;Hajjaji, Souad El;kabba, Saad El;Zouhdi, Mimoun
    • Safety and Health at Work
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    • v.11 no.2
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    • pp.193-198
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    • 2020
  • Background: Medical laboratory workers are frequently exposed to a wide range of chemicals. This exposure can have adverse effects on their health. Furthermore, a knowledge lack of the chemical risk increases the likelihood of exposure. The chemical risk assessment reduces the risk of exposure to hazardous chemicals and therefore, guarantees health and safety of the workers. Method: The chemical risk assessment was conducted using a modified INRS method, according to the new CLP Regulation, of 11 unit laboratories in a Moroccan medical laboratory. Observation of each workstation and analysis of safety data sheets are key tools in this study. Results: A total of 144 substances and reagents that could affect the health of the analytical technicians were identified. Among these products, 17% are concerned by the low priority risk score, with 55% concerned by the average priority risk score and 28% concerned by the high priority risk score. This study also enabled to better identify the chemical agents that have restrictive occupational exposure limit value and controls were conducted to this effect. On the basis of the results obtained, several corrective and preventive measures have been proposed and implemented. Conclusion: Risk assessment is essential to ensure the health and safety of workers and to meet regulatory requirements. It enables to identify all the risky manipulations and to adopt appropriate preventive measures. However, it is not a one-time activity but it must be continuous in order to master the changes and thus ensure the best safety of all.

Impact of Individual and Combined Health Behaviors on All Causes of Premature Mortality Among Middle Aged Men in Korea: The Seoul Male Cohort Study

  • Rhee, Chul-Woo;Kim, Ji-Young;Park, Byung-Joo;Li, Zhong Min;Ahn, Yoon-Ok
    • Journal of Preventive Medicine and Public Health
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    • v.45 no.1
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    • pp.14-20
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    • 2012
  • Objectives: The aim of this study was to evaluate and quantify the risk of both individual and combined health behaviors on premature mortality in middle aged men in Korea. Methods: In total, 14 533 male subjects 40 to 59 years of age were recruited. At enrollment, subjects completed a baseline questionnaire, which included information about socio-demographic factors, past medical history, and life style. During the follow-up period from 1993 to 2008, we identified 990 all-cause premature deaths using national death certificates. A Cox proportional hazard regression model was used to estimate the hazard ratio (HR) of each health risk behavior, which included smoking, drinking, physical inactivity, and lack of sleep hours. Using the Cox model, each health behavior was assigned a risk score proportional to its regression coefficient value. Health risk scores were calculated for each patient and the HR of all-cause premature mortality was calculated according to risk score. Results: Current smoking and drinking, high body mass index, less sleep hours, and less education were significantly associated with all-cause premature mortality, while regular exercise was associated with a reduced risk. When combined by health risk score, there was a strong trend for increased mortality risk with increased score (p-trend < 0.01). When compared with the 1-9 score group, HRs of the 10-19 and 20-28 score groups were 2.58 (95% confidence intervals [CIs], 2.19 to 3.03) and 7.09 (95% CIs, 5.21 to 9.66), respectively. Conclusions: Modifiable risk factors, such as smoking, drinking, and regular exercise, have considerable impact on premature mortality and should be assessed in combination.

A Study of Robotic Risk Confrontation Administration on the Ship Fire (선박 화재시의 Robot을 이용한 Risk 대응 관리 연구)

  • Park, Dea-Woo;Park, Young-suk;Nam, Jae-Min
    • Proceedings of the Korean Institute of Information and Commucation Sciences Conference
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    • 2009.10a
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    • pp.276-279
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    • 2009
  • Is introducing ship automation system for the safety of ship and work environment mend recently. Is endeavoring for sea safety and fire at sea prevention solidifying control of standard technology and safety supervision aspect in IMO but sea accident and ship fire are happening continuously. Because using Robot in artistic talent of ship in this treatise, studied that correspond to Risk and manage. Attach fire perception sensor for Robot's Risk confrontation, and because using infrared rays sensor, TOUCH SWITCH, sound perception sensor, gas perception sensor, light perception sensor that is threaded in Robot and is achieved, controlled Robot, and establish Low-High value the speed of sound output use and DC MOTOR and COM SEN of when indicate Risk confrontation to Robot and establish Robot's Risk confrontation administration action.

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The Effects of ESG Performance on the Relationship between Tax Risk and Cost of Capital: An Empirical Analysis of Korean Multinational Corporations

  • Jeong-Yeon Kang;Im-Hyeon Kim
    • Journal of Korea Trade
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    • v.27 no.1
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    • pp.1-18
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    • 2023
  • Purpose - Using a sample of Korean multinational corporations, we examine whether the relationship between tax risk and the implied cost of capital discriminates between the environmental, social, and corporate governance (ESG) of highly rated firms. Design/methodology - Firms with high tax risks have an increased uncertainty of future cash flows. Therefore, as the volatility of future cash flow increases, information asymmetry and the required return increases. Highly rated ESG firms can reduce information asymmetry, thereby weakening the positive relationship between tax risk and cost of capital. We employ the standard deviation of the cash effective tax rate as proxy of tax risk. We utilize the ESG rating data of the Korea Corporate Governance Service (KCGS). We use a PEG model, MPEG model, and GM model to measure the implied cost of capital. Findings - We find a positive association between the implied cost of capital and tax risk. The positive relationship between tax risk and the implied cost of capital weakens in highly rated ESG firms. Highly rated ESG firms prefer a stable tax position to invest after-tax cash flows into sustainable management. Therefore, the negative effects of tax risk on cost of capital can be reduced. Originality/value - This study provides empirical evidence that ESG activities can mitigate the negative impact of tax risk on the cost of capital for Korean multinational corporations. In a business environment where ESG activities are more important, the empirical results that ESG activities can reduce the corporate risk of Korean FDI companies are expected to provide implications for the ESG activities of multinational corporations.

Estimation of Physical Climate Risk for Private Companies (민간기업을 위한 물리적 기후리스크 추정 연구)

  • Yong-Sang Choi;Changhyun Yoo;Minjeong Kong;Minjeong Cho;Haesoo Jung;Yoon-Kyoung Lee;Seon Ki Park;Myoung-Hwan Ahn;Jaehak Hwang;Sung Ju Kim
    • Atmosphere
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    • v.34 no.1
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    • pp.1-21
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    • 2024
  • Private companies are increasingly required to take more substantial actions on climate change. This study introduces the principle and cases of climate (physical) risk estimation for 11 private companies in Korea. Climate risk is defined as the product of three major determinants: hazard, exposure, and vulnerability. Hazard is the intensity or frequency of weather phenomena that can cause disasters. Vulnerability can be reflected in the function that explains the relationship between past weather records and loss records. The final climate risk is calculated by multiplying the function by the exposure, which is defined as the area or value of the target area exposed to the climate. Future climate risk is estimated by applying future exposure to estimated future hazard using climate model scenarios or statistical trends based on weather data. The estimated climate risks are developed into three types according to the demand of private companies: i) climate risk for financial portfolio management, ii) climate risk for port logistics management, iii) climate risk for supply chain management. We hope that this study will contribute to the establishment of the climate risk management system in the Korean industrial sector as a whole.