• Title/Summary/Keyword: Risk value

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A Risk-Averse Insider and Asset Pricing in Continuous Time

  • Lim, Byung Hwa
    • Management Science and Financial Engineering
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    • v.19 no.1
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    • pp.11-16
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    • 2013
  • This paper derives an equilibrium asset price when there exist three kinds of traders in financial market: a risk-averse informed trader, noise traders, and risk neutral market makers. This paper is an extended version of Kyle's (1985, Econometrica) continuous time model by introducing insider's risk aversion. We obtain not only the equilibrium asset pricing and market depth parameter but also insider's value function and optimal insider's trading strategy explicitly. The comparative static shows that the market depth (the reciprocal of market pressure) increases with time and volatility of noise traders' trading.

Effects of Omni-channel Service Characteristics on Utilitarian/Hedonic Shopping Value and Reuse Intention (옴니채널 서비스 특성이 실용적·쾌락적 쇼핑가치 지각과 재이용의도에 미치는 영향)

  • Shin, Jong-Kuk;Oh, Mi-Ok
    • Journal of Digital Convergence
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    • v.15 no.10
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    • pp.183-191
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    • 2017
  • This study tries to explain the relationships among omni-channel service characteristics, utilitarian/hedonic shopping value, and reuse intention. We derive instant connectivity, localization, consistency, integration, privacy risk as omni-channel service characteristics from previous studies and collect data from 190 omni-channel service users. The major findings are as follows. First, localization, consistency, and privacy risk have a significant effect on utilitarian shopping value but no significant effect on hedonic shopping value. Second, instant connectivity and integration have a positive effect on both utilitarian and hedonic value. Third, utilitarian and hedonic shopping value have a positive effect on reuse intention. This study extends the scope of omni-channel consumer behaviors by focusing on multi-dimensionality of shopping value. The results of this research can provide useful implications for practitioners to build successful strategies on omni-channel service.

Valuing Reduction of Mortality and Cancer Risks from a Contingent Valuation (사망위험감소 및 암 발생확률감소가치의 추정)

  • Hocheol Jeon
    • Environmental and Resource Economics Review
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    • v.32 no.1
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    • pp.1-26
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    • 2023
  • This study employs the dichotomous choice contingent valuation method to estimate the Value of a Statistical Life (VSL) and the Value per Statistical Case (VSCC) of cancer risk. In contrast to the previous studies, which presented the mortality risk probability directly, the study uses conditional probability, which combines the chance of getting cancer and dying from it. In addition, the study examines the impact of variables that may affect willingness to pay for reducing the risk of death from cancer and getting cancer, such as the impact on daily life and pain levels associated with cancer. The results indicate that the estimated cancer VSL ranges from approximately 952 million won to 3.359 billion won, while the VSCC is estimated to be between about 0.42 billion won and 2.72 billion won. The study finds a significant difference in the VSL depending on whether the reduction in mortality risk is from a decrease in the chance of getting cancer or a decrease in the chance of dying from cancer. However, the effect of impacts on daily activities and pain on willingness to pay is inconclusive.

A Study on Risk Analysis and Relevant Measures for the Successful Performance in Overseas Construction Projects - Including Case Analysis on A Overseas Construction Project - (해외건설 프로젝트의 성공적 수행을 위한 위험요소 및 대처방안에 대한 연구 - 해외건설 사례분석을 포함하여 -)

  • Kim, Sang-Man
    • THE INTERNATIONAL COMMERCE & LAW REVIEW
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    • v.50
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    • pp.215-250
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    • 2011
  • Korean won overseas construction projects worth 71.6 billion US Dollars in 2010, which exceeded that of 2009 by 45.6%. An overseas construction project is a transaction of large scale, long term project, many parties participating, deferred payment, and of high-technology. It contributes to foreign currency earning, and also leads the nation's export restructuring work towards high value-added one. There are various kinds of risks towards the relevant parties respectively, which are key elements in successfully performing the overseas construction project. There are completion risk, financing risk, operating risk, revenue risk etc, in an employer's place. A contractor may be confronted with payment risk, issuance risk of performance bond, financing risk, performance risk of sub-contractors, and exchange rate risk. In lenders place there are repayment risk, completion risk, and political risk in the host country. In order to mitigate risks, the parties shall take relevant measures or require relevant securities. A contractor needs to evaluate the credibility of an employer in respect of payment risk, and can also request export insurance cover by the Korea Trade Insurance Corporation(the former 'Korea Export Insurance Corporation"). An employer can require a contractor to provide performance bond in respect of completion risk, and employ a well-known first class bank as a mandated arranger to arrange financing with regard to completion risk. Lenders needs to evaluate the credibility of an employer and accomplish feasibility study of the project. Lenders can request insurance cover from export credit agency. Once the parties assess the respective risks and obtain relevant securities, the project will be successfully completed. The success of the project will be sure to bring the parties involved enormous profits and another opportunity to participate in overseas construction project afterwards.

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Development of a Risk Assessment Tool for Emerging Infectious Diseases (신종감염병의 양적 및 질적 혼합 위험 평가 모델 개발)

  • Woo, Darae;Choi, Eunmi;Choe, Young June;Yeh, Jungyong;Park, Sangshin
    • Health Policy and Management
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    • v.32 no.4
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    • pp.356-367
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    • 2022
  • Background: The emergence of new infectious diseases threatens public health, increasing socioeconomic damage, and national risks. This study aimed to develop an evidence-based risk assessment tool to quickly respond to new infectious diseases. Methods: The risk elements were extracted by reviewing the risk assessment methods of the World Health Organization, United States, Europe, United Kingdom, and Germany, and the validity and priority of elements were determined through expert meetings and Delphi surveys. Then, the scale and level for each risk element were defined and a final score calculation method according to the risk evaluation result was derived. The developed risk assessment tool was verified using data at the time of domestic transmission of an emerging infectious disease. Results: In case of spread of actual infectious diseases, priority is determined based on the criticality of the elements in each area of transmissibility and severity, from which the weighted score of the risk assessment is derived. Then, the risk score for each element was calculated by multiplying the average value of the risk evaluation by its weight and the evaluation risk assessment score for the two areas was calculated. At last, the final score is plotted in a matrix where the x-axis indicates the transmissibility and the y-axis the severity and plotted on the coordinate plane for time series use. Conclusion: With respect to transmissibility and severity, this risk assessment method to respond to new and re-emerging infectious diseases enables rapid and evidence-based evaluation by quantitatively and qualitatively assessing various risk elements.

A Study on the Risk Assessment Method of Indoor-Impulsive Noise (실내 충격소음 위험 평가 방법에 관한 연구)

  • Chung, Sung Hak;Song, Ki Hyeok
    • Journal of the Korean Society of Safety
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    • v.31 no.2
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    • pp.90-97
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    • 2016
  • The objective of this study is to evaluate the operator's safety for the risk assessment method of impulsive noise division. Literature reviews on the basis of the impulsive noise study, the measuring methods and procedures, based on the results of the analysis process presents a risk assessment methods. In this study, analysis of the MIL-STD-1474D, B-duration graph for the peak noise level to cross the line from the measurement results is limited by the risk retracted. It is possible to determine whether there is quick can be determined whether the risk. Measurement positions measured by the microphone is installed on the risk of applying results are so located within the tolerance impulsive noise in the measurement position can interpret subjective safety is ensured. In addition, Proportional Dose technology was the proposed by the Patterson with the risk assessment method was applied to the indoor-impulsive noise. As results of this study, results for the same value of applying the technique of Proportional Dose technology results calculated by MIL-STD-1474D methods allows 1 count once increased in comparison to the result obtained.

Risk assessment of wastewater reuse for Irrigation water (하수처리수의 관개용수 재이용을 위한 위해성 평가)

  • Han, Jung-Yoon;Yoon, Chun-Gyeong;Jung, Kwang-Wook;Jang, Jae-Ho
    • Proceedings of the Korean Society of Agricultural Engineers Conference
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    • 2005.10a
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    • pp.661-666
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    • 2005
  • Wastewater reuse are exposed public health risk by pathogens. Therefore, this study was examined for microbial risk assessment after irrigation as treated wastewater in paddy rice plots. Five treatments were used: biofilter effluent, UV disinfected water, pond treatment, wetland treatment and conventional irrigation water. Risk assessment was calculated based on the beta-Poisson model by concentration of E. coli from 2003 to 2005. Monte-Carlo simulation (n=10,000) was used to estimate the risk characterization of uncertainty. The risk range was from $10^{-5}$ to $10^{-8}$ except biofilter effluent was $10^{-4}$ in June. The USEPA(1992) has recommended that risk of < $10^{-4}$ is acceptable level of safety for potable waters. In 2005, risk value was lower than 2003, 2004 because of the first irrigation for plowing water is lower E. coli concentration used tap water. It is shown that the first irrigation water quality was important for wastewater irrigation in paddy. UV disinfection and natural treatment used pond and wetland were thought to be an effective for wastewater reuse.

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Five Year's Follow-up of the Cardiovascular Disease Risk Factors among the Low Level Organic Solvent Exposure Workers (저농도 유기용제 노출 사업장 근로자의 심혈관질환 위험인자 변화 추적(2008~2012))

  • Kim, Mi-Ae
    • Korean Journal of Occupational Health Nursing
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    • v.24 no.2
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    • pp.67-75
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    • 2015
  • Purpose: The objective of the present study was to evaluate the effects of occupational exposure to low dose organic solvents on the prevalence of cardiovascular risk factors. Methods: Study design was retrospective cohort study subjected on 191 exposures and 118 controls working in a petrochemical manufacture company. The eight indicators related to CVD risk were followed up for five years from 2008 to 2012. The risk level was compared during the follow up years and subject's characteristics, and the change of risk level were analyzed with repeated measures ANOVA and multiple logistic regression analysis. Results: At the start year 2008, the rate over cutoff value (ROCV) of BS (p<.001) and mean systolic BP (p=.017) were higher in organic solvent exposure group and the others showed no difference. And by the subject's characteristics, odds ratio of the ROCV of BS were higher in organic solvent exposure group and work shift group as 2.51 and 3.07. Comparing the results in 2012 to those of 2008, cardiovascular disease risk in organic solvent exposure group was about 1.5 times higher than that of in the control group. Conclusion: Gradual increase in the CVD risk was identified in organic solvent exposure group. However, the risk might be influenced by shift work and bad behaviors rather than organic solvent exposure.

Development of Integrated Method and Tool for Railway Risk Assessment (철도 위험도 통합 평가 방법 및 도구 개발)

  • Han, Sang-Hoon;Ahn, Kwang-Il;Wang, Jong-Bae;Lee, Ho-Joong
    • Proceedings of the KSR Conference
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    • 2006.11b
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    • pp.1132-1139
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    • 2006
  • Railway risk is evaluated by a method of linking event trees and fault trees as the general PSA(Probabilistic Safety Assessment) model for the risk assessment of complex systems. Accident scenarios causing undesirable events are modeled by event trees comprised of several accident sequences. Each branch located in the accident progression of the event tree is modeled by an fault tree or can be represented by some value too simply. We usually evaluate the frequency of the whole sequence by adding them after calculating the frequency of each sequence at a time. However, since there are quite a number of event trees and fault trees in the railway risk assessment model, the number of sequence to evaluate increases and preparation for the risk assessment costs much time all the more. Also, it may induce errors when analysts perform the work of quantification. Therefore, the systematic maintenance and control of event trees and fault trees will be essential for the railway risk assessment. In this paper we introduce an integrated assessment method using one-top model and develop a risk assessment tool for the maintenance and control of the railway risk model.

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Risk assessment of heavy metals in soil based on the geographic information system-Kriging technique in Anka, Nigeria

  • Johnbull, Onisoya;Abbassi, Bassim;Zytner, Richard G.
    • Environmental Engineering Research
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    • v.24 no.1
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    • pp.150-158
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    • 2019
  • Soil contaminated with heavy metals from artisanal gold mining in Anka Local Government Area in Northwestern Nigeria was investigated to evaluate the human health risk as a result of heavy metals. Measured concentration of heavy metals and exposure parameters were used to estimate human carcinogenic and non-carcinogenic risk. GIS-based Kriging method was utilized to create a prediction maps of human health risks and probability maps of heavy metals concentrations exceeding their threshold limits. Hazard index calculation showed that 21 out of 23 locations are posing non-cancer risk for children. Adults and children are at high cancer risk in all locations as the total cancer risk exceeded $1{\times}10^{-6}$ (the lower limit CTR value). Kriging model showed that only a very small area in Anka has a hazard index of less than unity and cumulative target risk of less than $1{\times}10^{-4}$, indicating a significant carcinogenic and non-carcinogenic risks for children. The probability of heavy metals to exceed their threshold concentrations around the study area was also found to be high.