• Title/Summary/Keyword: Risk value

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Development of a Risk Scoring Model to Predict Unexpected Conversion to Thoracotomy during Video-Assisted Thoracoscopic Surgery for Lung Cancer

  • Ga Young Yoo;Seung Keun Yoon;Mi Hyoung Moon;Seok Whan Moon;Wonjung Hwang;Kyung Soo Kim
    • Journal of Chest Surgery
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    • v.57 no.3
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    • pp.302-311
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    • 2024
  • Background: Unexpected conversion to thoracotomy during planned video-assisted thoracoscopic surgery (VATS) can lead to poor outcomes and comparatively high morbidity. This study was conducted to assess preoperative risk factors associated with unexpected thoracotomy conversion and to develop a risk scoring model for preoperative use, aimed at identifying patients with an elevated risk of conversion. Methods: A retrospective analysis was conducted of 1,506 patients who underwent surgical resection for non-small cell lung cancer. To evaluate the risk factors, univariate analysis and logistic regression were performed. A risk scoring model was established to predict unexpected thoracotomy conversion during VATS of the lung, based on preoperative factors. To validate the model, an additional cohort of 878 patients was analyzed. Results: Among the potentially significant clinical variables, male sex, previous ipsilateral lung surgery, preoperative detection of calcified lymph nodes, and clinical T stage were identified as independent risk factors for unplanned conversion to thoracotomy. A 6-point risk scoring model was developed to predict conversion based on the assessed risk, with patients categorized into 4 groups. The results indicated an area under the receiver operating characteristic curve of 0.747, with a sensitivity of 80.5%, specificity of 56.4%, positive predictive value of 1.8%, and negative predictive value of 91.0%. When applied to the validation cohort, the model exhibited good predictive accuracy. Conclusion: We successfully developed and validated a risk scoring model for preoperative use that can predict the likelihood of unplanned conversion to thoracotomy during VATS of the lung.

MDM2 T309G has a Synergistic Effect with P21 ser31arg Single Nucleotide Polymorphisms on the Risk of Acute Myeloid Leukemia

  • Ebid, Gamal T.;Sedhom, Iman A.;El-Gammal, Mosaad M.;Moneer, Manar M.
    • Asian Pacific Journal of Cancer Prevention
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    • v.13 no.9
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    • pp.4315-4320
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    • 2012
  • Background: The P53 tumor suppressor gene plays a pivotal role in maintaining cellular homeostasis by preventing the propagation of genome mutations. P53 in its transcriptionally active form is capable of activating distinct target genes that contribute to either apoptosis or growth arrest, like P21. However, the MDM2 gene is a major negative regulator of P53. Single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNP) in codon Arg72Pro of P53 results in impairment of the tumor suppressor activity of the gene. A similar effect is caused by a SNP in codon 31 of P21. In contrast, a SNP in position 309 of MDM2 results in increased expression due to substitution of thymine by guanine. All three polymorphisms have been associated with increased risk of tumorigenesis. Aim of the study: We aimed to study the prevalence of SNPs in the P53 pathway involving the three genes, P53, P21 and MDM2, among acute myeloid leukemia (AML) patients and to compare it to apparently normal healthy controls for assessment of impact on risk. Results: We found that the P21 ser31arg heterozygous polymorphism increases the risk of AML (P value=0.017, OR=2.946, 95% CI=1.216-7.134). Although the MDM2 309G allele was itself without affect, it showed a synergistic effect with P21 ser/arg polymorphism (P value=0.003, OR=6.807, 95% CI=1.909-24.629). However, the MDM2 309T allele abolish risk effect of the P21 polymorphic allele (P value=0.71). There is no significant association of P53 arg72pro polymorphism on the risk of AML. Conclusion: We suggest that SNPs in the P53 pathway, especially the P21 ser31arg polymorphism and combined polymorphisms especially the P21/MDM2 might be genetic susceptibility factors in the pathogenesis of AML.

Risk based Value Index Evaluation Model for Modular Design Alternatives in Plant Construction Projects (플랜트 건설사업의 모듈러 설계대안별 RVI 평가 모델)

  • Kang, Hyun Wook
    • Korean Journal of Construction Engineering and Management
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    • v.23 no.5
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    • pp.98-107
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    • 2022
  • The purpose of this study is to suggest a model for evaluation of a risk based value index for modular design alternatives in plant construction projects. Accordingly, 1) Setting the basic project cost and the scope to apply the module, 2) Evaluating the importance, easiness, and effectiveness index for Engineering, Procurement, Fabrication, transportation, and construction work, 3) Estimating the total project cost by analyzing the risk reserve Step, 4) Comparing the effectiveness index and total project cost for each modular design alternative, it was composed of the steps of deriving RVI. To verify such a model, Plan-A, which applied a module to one process, and Plan-B, which applied a module to three processes, were composed to evaluate RVI.

Study on the Tiered Applicability of Health-Based Reference Value in Chemical Risk Assessment (화학물질 위험성 평가 시 건강영향 기준값의 단계적 적용에 관한 고찰)

  • Hye Jin, Lee;Naroo, Lee
    • Journal of Korean Society of Occupational and Environmental Hygiene
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    • v.32 no.4
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    • pp.350-358
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    • 2022
  • Objectives: For chemical risk assessment in workplaces, it is necessary to determine a reference value through hazard assessment. In general, OEL (Occupational Exposure Limit) is used for this value. However, since chemicals with OEL were not enough, the concept of DNEL (Derived No Effect Level) was introduced in chemical safety assessment. In this study, the possibility and approach of applying DNEL for chemical risk assessment in domestic workplaces were investigated. Methods: The characteristics of OEL and DNEL were investigated. In addition, ACGIH TLV and GESTIS DNEL were compared and the corresponding scopes were analyzed among the chemical substances notified in South Korea. Results: OEL and DNEL are similar concepts reflecting reference values that should not be exposed based on health effects. While their evaluation and derivation are determined based on similar information and procedures, they may vary depending on the responsible actor, data availability, principles of judgment, and more. As a result of the comparative analysis of ACGIH TLV and GESTIS DNEL, it was confirmed that there is some correlation between TWA and DNEL. The conservatism of DNEL was around 50%. Additionally, it was found that the available range of DNEL among chemicals in South Korea is considerable. Conclusions: This study showed that DNEL can be applied when assessing the risk of chemical substances in domestic workplaces considering several regards. However, since this is not the same level as OEL, we have proposed a proper approach to carry out risk assessment step by step.

Estimating the Value of Statistical Life by Analysing Disease Protective Behavior: Focusing on Medical Examination of Cancer (질병예방행위 분석을 통한 확률적 인간생명가치 추정: 암 검진 행위 분석을 중심으로)

  • Shin, YoungChul
    • Environmental and Resource Economics Review
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    • v.17 no.4
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    • pp.845-873
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    • 2008
  • This study estimates the VSL(value of a statistical life) as well as the WTP(willingness to pay) for mortality risk reduction using sample selection model with data on liver cancer examination which is associated with little possibility of multi-purpose(i.e. joint production) in averting behavior. The marginal benefits of mortality risk reduction are estimated by applying for household production function model with medical expense and the time required for medical examination of liver cancer. Individuals are more likely to take liver cancer test if they are male, older, higher educated, those with spouse, smoker, more income of household, and more anxious about their health. The costs of liver cancer examination are statistically significantly affected with expected signs by size of mortality risk reduction, sex, period of eduction, those with spouse, and household income. The marginal effect of mortality risk reduction owing to taking liver cancer examination is estimated at 321,097 won. The costs of liver cancer examination are increased by 905 won with more one year of education period and by 1,743 won with more one million won in household income. On liver cancer examination, male spends more 12,310 won than female and those with spouse pay more 7,969 won than those without spouse. Therefore the VSL from mortality risk reduction due to liver cancer examination is 321.10 million won at mean size of mortality risk reduction and mean cost of liver cancer examination. The results of sensitivity tests on costs and effects of liver cancer test shows that the VSLs are estimated in a range from 160.55 million won to 642.19 million won.

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A Study on the Conceptual model of Enterprise Risk Management System (전사적 Risk Management System의 개념적 모형에 관한 연구)

  • Yoon, Seung-Ok;Lee, Chang-Ho
    • Journal of the Korea Safety Management & Science
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    • v.14 no.2
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    • pp.113-121
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    • 2012
  • The important elements and conditions to improve corporate competitiveness are customer development, new product development, sales increase, net profit increase, and other factors. Even if those competitiveness elements are well prepared, obstacles may exist. In this paper, we examined the risk, the deadliest obstacle that can affect corporate. We selected the risk factors that exist in functional categories in the system connected complicatedly and variously by organizational value chain of corporate, and examined the conceptual model of Enterprise Risk Management System based on the precedent studies.

Quantitative Microbial Risk Assessment for Campylobacter spp. on Ham in Korea

  • Lee, Jeeyeon;Ha, Jimyeong;Kim, Sejeong;Lee, Heeyoung;Lee, Soomin;Yoon, Yohan
    • Food Science of Animal Resources
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    • v.35 no.5
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    • pp.674-682
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    • 2015
  • The objective of this study was to evaluate the risk of illness from Campylobacter spp. on ham. To identify the hazards of Campylobacter spp. on ham, the general characteristics and microbial criteria for Campylobacter spp., and campylobacteriosis outbreaks were investigated. In the exposure assessment, the prevalence of Campylobacter spp. on ham was evaluated, and the probabilistic distributions for the temperature of ham surfaces in retail markets and home refrigerators were prepared. In addition, the raw data from the Korea National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (KNHNES) 2012 were used to estimate the consumption amount and frequency of ham. In the hazard characterization, the Beta-Poisson model for Campylobacter spp. infection was used. For risk characterization, a simulation model was developed using the collected data, and the risk of Campylobacter spp. on ham was estimated with @RISK. The Campylobacter spp. cell counts on ham samples were below the detection limit (<0.70 Log CFU/g). The daily consumption of ham was 23.93 g per person, and the consumption frequency was 11.57%. The simulated mean value of the initial contamination level of Campylobacter spp. on ham was −3.95 Log CFU/g, and the mean value of ham for probable risk per person per day was 2.20×10−12. It is considered that the risk of foodborne illness for Campylobacter spp. was low. Furthermore, these results indicate that the microbial risk assessment of Campylobacter spp. in this study should be useful in providing scientific evidence to set up the criteria of Campylobacter spp..

An Empirical Study on Perceived Value and Continuous Intention to Use of Smart Phone, and the Moderating Effect of Personal Innovativeness (스마트폰의 지각된 가치와 지속적 사용의도, 그리고 개인 혁신성의 조절효과)

  • Han, Joonhyoung;Kang, Sungbae;Moon, Taesoo
    • Asia pacific journal of information systems
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    • v.23 no.4
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    • pp.53-84
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    • 2013
  • With rapid development of ICT (Information and Communications Technology), new services by the convergence of mobile network and application technology began to appear. Today, smart phone with new ICT convergence network capabilities is exceedingly popular and very useful as a new tool for the development of business opportunities. Previous studies based on Technology Acceptance Model (TAM) suggested critical factors, which should be considered for acquiring new customers and maintaining existing users in smart phone market. However, they had a limitation to focus on technology acceptance, not value based approach. Prior studies on customer's adoption of electronic utilities like smart phone product showed that the antecedents such as the perceived benefit and the perceived sacrifice could explain the causality between what is perceived and what is acquired over diverse contexts. So, this research conceptualizes perceived value as a trade-off between perceived benefit and perceived sacrifice, and we need to research the perceived value to grasp user's continuous intention to use of smart phone. The purpose of this study is to investigate the structured relationship between benefit (quality, usefulness, playfulness) and sacrifice (technicality, cost, security risk) of smart phone users, perceived value, and continuous intention to use. In addition, this study intends to analyze the differences between two subgroups of smart phone users by the degree of personal innovativeness. Personal innovativeness could help us to understand the moderating effect between how perceptions are formed and continuous intention to use smart phone. This study conducted survey through e-mail, direct mail, and interview with smart phone users. Empirical analysis based on 330 respondents was conducted in order to test the hypotheses. First, the result of hypotheses testing showed that perceived usefulness among three factors of perceived benefit has the highest positive impact on perceived value, and then followed by perceived playfulness and perceived quality. Second, the result of hypotheses testing showed that perceived cost among three factors of perceived sacrifice has significantly negative impact on perceived value, however, technicality and security risk have no significant impact on perceived value. Also, the result of hypotheses testing showed that perceived value has significant direct impact on continuous intention to use of smart phone. In this regard, marketing managers of smart phone company should pay more attention to improve task efficiency and performance of smart phone, including rate systems of smart phone. Additionally, to test the moderating effect of personal innovativeness, this research conducted multi-group analysis by the degree of personal innovativeness of smart phone users. In a group with high level of innovativeness, perceived usefulness has the highest positive influence on perceived value than other factors. Instead, the analysis for a group with low level of innovativeness showed that perceived playfulness was the highest positive factor to influence perceived value than others. This result of the group with high level of innovativeness explains that innovators and early adopters are able to cope with higher level of cost and risk, and they expect to develop more positive intentions toward higher performance through the use of an innovation. Also, hedonic behavior in the case of the group with low level of innovativeness aims to provide self-fulfilling value to the users, in contrast to utilitarian perspective, which aims to provide instrumental value to the users. However, with regard to perceived sacrifice, both groups in general showed negative impact on perceived value. Also, the group with high level of innovativeness had less overall negative impact on perceived value compared to the group with low level of innovativeness across all factors. In both group with high level of innovativeness and with low level of innovativeness, perceived cost has the highest negative influence on perceived value than other factors. Instead, the analysis for a group with high level of innovativeness showed that perceived technicality was the positive factor to influence perceived value than others. However, the analysis for a group with low level of innovativeness showed that perceived security risk was the second high negative factor to influence perceived value than others. Unlike previous studies, this study focuses on influencing factors on continuous intention to use of smart phone, rather than considering initial purchase and adoption of smart phone. First, perceived value, which was used to identify user's adoption behavior, has a mediating effect among perceived benefit, perceived sacrifice, and continuous intention to use smart phone. Second, perceived usefulness has the highest positive influence on perceived value, while perceived cost has significant negative influence on perceived value. Third, perceived value, like prior studies, has high level of positive influence on continuous intention to use smart phone. Fourth, in multi-group analysis by the degree of personal innovativeness of smart phone users, perceived usefulness, in a group with high level of innovativeness, has the highest positive influence on perceived value than other factors. Instead, perceived playfulness, in a group with low level of innovativeness, has the highest positive factor to influence perceived value than others. This result shows that early adopters intend to adopt smart phone as a tool to make their job useful, instead market followers intend to adopt smart phone as a tool to make their time enjoyable. In terms of marketing strategy for smart phone company, marketing managers should pay more attention to identify their customers' lifetime value by the phase of smart phone adoption, as well as to understand their behavior intention to accept the risk and uncertainty positively. The academic contribution of this study primarily is to employ the VAM (Value-based Adoption Model) as a conceptual foundation, compared to TAM (Technology Acceptance Model) used widely by previous studies. VAM is useful for understanding continuous intention to use smart phone in comparison with TAM as a new IT utility by individual adoption. Perceived value dominantly influences continuous intention to use smart phone. The results of this study justify our research model adoption on each antecedent of perceived value as a benefit and a sacrifice component. While TAM could be widely used in user acceptance of new technology, it has a limitation to explain the new IT adoption like smart phone, because of customer behavior intention to choose the value of the object. In terms of theoretical approach, this study provides theoretical contribution to the development, design, and marketing of smart phone. The practical contribution of this study is to suggest useful decision alternatives concerned to marketing strategy formulation for acquiring and retaining long-term customers related to smart phone business. Since potential customers are interested in both benefit and sacrifice when evaluating the value of smart phone, marketing managers in smart phone company has to put more effort into creating customer's value of low sacrifice and high benefit so that customers will continuously have higher adoption on smart phone. Especially, this study shows that innovators and early adopters with high level of innovativeness have higher adoption than market followers with low level of innovativeness, in terms of perceived usefulness and perceived cost. To formulate marketing strategy for smart phone diffusion, marketing managers have to pay more attention to identify not only their customers' benefit and sacrifice components but also their customers' lifetime value to adopt smart phone.

Life Insurance Ownership of Households: Term and Cash-value Life Insurance

  • Baek, Eun-Young
    • International Journal of Human Ecology
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    • v.5 no.1
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    • pp.9-21
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    • 2004
  • This study attempted to identify the factors related to life insurance focusing on two different types of life insurance: term life insurance and cash-value life insurance. Based on the human capital, bequest motives theories, and decision under risk, a conceptual framework was developed. The results showed a support for the conceptual framework indicating that human capital, bequest motives as well as attitude toward risk were important factors in predicting each of life insurance ownership. In addition, the factors related to each type of life insurance were different. For term life insurance, the variables representing households' bequest motives were found to play an important role while the variables reflecting human capital theory had significant impact on cash-value life insurance holding.

Regression analysis of interval censored competing risk data using a pseudo-value approach

  • Kim, Sooyeon;Kim, Yang-Jin
    • Communications for Statistical Applications and Methods
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    • v.23 no.6
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    • pp.555-562
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    • 2016
  • Interval censored data often occur in an observational study where the subject is followed periodically. Instead of observing an exact failure time, two inspection times that include it are available. There are several methods to analyze interval censored failure time data (Sun, 2006). However, in the presence of competing risks, few methods have been suggested to estimate covariate effect on interval censored competing risk data. A sub-distribution hazard model is a commonly used regression model because it has one-to-one correspondence with a cumulative incidence function. Alternatively, Klein and Andersen (2005) proposed a pseudo-value approach that directly uses the cumulative incidence function. In this paper, we consider an extension of the pseudo-value approach into the interval censored data to estimate regression coefficients. The pseudo-values generated from the estimated cumulative incidence function then become response variables in a generalized estimating equation. Simulation studies show that the suggested method performs well in several situations and an HIV-AIDS cohort study is analyzed as a real data example.