• Title/Summary/Keyword: Risk simulation

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Estimation of Road-Network Performance and Resilience According to the Strength of a Disaster (재난 강도에 따른 도로 네트워크의 성능 및 회복력 산정 방안)

  • Jung, Hoyong;Choi, Seunghyun;Do, Myungsik
    • International Journal of Highway Engineering
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    • v.20 no.1
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    • pp.35-45
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    • 2018
  • PURPOSES : This study examines the performance changes of road networks according to the strength of a disaster, and proposes a method for estimating the quantitative resilience according to the road-network performance changes and damage scale. This study also selected high-influence road sections, according to disasters targeting the road network, and aimed to analyze their hazard resilience from the network aspect through a scenario analysis of the damage recovery after a disaster occurred. METHODS : The analysis was conducted targeting Sejong City in South Korea. The disaster situation was set up using the TransCAD and VISSIM traffic-simulation software. First, the study analyzed how road-network damage changed the user's travel pattern and travel time, and how it affected the complete network. Secondly, the functional aspects of the road networks were analyzed using quantitative resilience. Finally, based on the road-network performance change and resilience, priority-management road sections were selected. RESULTS : According to the analysis results, when a road section has relatively low connectivity and low traffic, its effect on the complete network is insignificant. Moreover, certain road sections with relatively high importance can suffer a performance loss from major damage, for e.g., sections where bridges, tunnels, or underground roads are located, roads where no bypasses exist or they exist far from the concerned road, including entrances and exits to suburban areas. Relatively important roads have the potential to significantly degrade the network performance when a disaster occurs. Because of the high risk of delays or isolation, they may lead to secondary damage. Thus, it is necessary to manage the roads to maintain their performance. CONCLUSIONS : As a baseline study to establish measures for traffic prevention, this study considered the performance of a road network, selected high-influence road sections within the road network, and analyzed the quantitative resilience of the road network according to scenarios. The road users' passage-pattern changes were analyzed through simulation analysis using the User Equilibrium model. Based on the analysis results, the resilience in each scenario was examined and compared. Sections where a road's performance loss had a significant influence on the network were targeted. The study results were judged to become basic research data for establishing response plans to restore the original functions and performance of the destroyed and damage road networks, and for selecting maintenance priorities.

A Study on Improving the Efficiency of the Survival Rate for the Offshore Accommodation Barge Resident Using Fire Dynamic Simulation (화재시뮬레이션을 이용한 해양플랜트 전용생활부선 거주자의 생존율 향상에 대한 연구)

  • Kim, Won-Ouk;Lee, Chang-Hee
    • Journal of the Korean Society of Marine Environment & Safety
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    • v.21 no.6
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    • pp.689-695
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    • 2015
  • The offshore plant crews that were commissioned in the commercial startup phase boarded the offshore plant in two shifts until the end of the project. The crews who were hired by the owner side stayed in the original offshore plant during the project. However, most of the offshore plant commissioned members who were dispatched from the shipyard were accommodated in the offshore accommodation barge. For this reason, they were exposed to many accidents since there are a lot of people staying in a small space. This study suggested a method for improving survival rate at offshore accommodation barge in terms of life safety. It is assumed that the fire accident among unfortunate events which take place in the offshore accommodation barge mainly occurred. So, this study analyzed the safety evacuation for offshore plant employees using fire simulation model based on both domestic and international law criteria. In particular, When fire occurs in the offshore accommodation barge, the periodically well trained crews are followed safety evacuation procedure. whereas many employees who have different background such as various occupations, cultural differences, races and nationality can be commissioned with improper evacuation behaviors. As a result, the risk will be greater than normal situation due to these inappropriate behaviors. Therefore, This study analyzed the Required Safe Escape Time (RSET) and Available Safe Escape Time (ASET). Also it was suggested the improvement of structure design and additional arrangement of safety equipment to improve the survival rate of the residents in offshore accommodation barge.

A Probabilistic Prediction of Weapon Systems Evaluation Test Execution Ratio and Management Scheme (무기체계 평가시험 수행율의 확률적 예측 및 관리기법)

  • Jang, Young-sik;Han, Sung-hee;Han, Hyun-goo;Mun, Chang-min
    • Journal of the Korea Institute of Information and Communication Engineering
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    • v.21 no.2
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    • pp.468-474
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    • 2017
  • A test service for the weapon systems evaluation is one of the most important processes during the weapon systems acquisition or development life cycle. Before completion of weapon systems development, the appropriate evaluation test can reduce risk and expense which might be expected during weapon systems development procedure. In this paper, it is suggested that a probabilistic prediction method based on Monte Carlo simulation for how much the annual weapon systems evaluation test excution ratio can be reached compared to the yearly initial planned test quantity. And then a weapon systems evaluation test quantitative management scheme is suggested to assist decision making for the test schedule manager who can arrange monthly test schedule based on the prediction result of annual test excution ratio. And the proposed method is applied for the weapon systems evaluation firing test data of the 8th directorate, Agency for Defense Development(ADD). And also the application result is examined.

Analysis of Crash Load in Crash Impact Test for Fuel Tank of Rotorcraft (항공기용 연료탱크 Phase I 충돌충격시험 충격하중 분석)

  • Kim, Hyun-gi;Kim, Sung Chan
    • Journal of the Korea Academia-Industrial cooperation Society
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    • v.16 no.6
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    • pp.3736-3741
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    • 2015
  • Crash impact test is conducted to verify the crashworthiness of fuel tank. Success of the crash impact test means the improvement of survivability of crews by preventing post-crash fire. But, there is a big risk of failure due to huge external load in the crash impact test. The failure of crash impact test can result in serious delay of a entire rotorcraft development because of the design complement and re-production of the test specimens requiring a long-term preparation. Thus, the numerical simulations of the crash impact test has been required at the early design stage to minimize the possibility of trial-and-error in the real test. Present study conducts on the numerical simulation of phase I crash impact test using SPH supported by crash simulation software, LS-DYNA. Test condition of MIL-DTL-27422 is reflected on analysis and material data is acquired by specimen test of fuel cell material. As a result, the crash load on the skin material, overlap area and metal fitting is estimated to confirm the possibility of acquisition of the design load for the determination of the overlap area and adhesive strength.

Cellular Automata Simulation System for Emergency Response to the Dispersion of Accidental Chemical Releases (사고로 인한 유해화학물질 누출확산의 대응을 위한 Cellular Automata기반의 시뮬레이션 시스템)

  • Shin, Insup Paul;Kim, Chang Won;Kwak, Dongho;Yoon, En Sup;Kim, Tae-Ok
    • Journal of the Korean Institute of Gas
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    • v.22 no.6
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    • pp.136-143
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    • 2018
  • Cellular automata have been applied to simulations in many fields such as astrophysics, social phenomena, fire spread, and evacuation. Using cellular automata, this study develops a model for consequence analysis of the dispersion of hazardous chemicals, which is required for risk assessments of and emergency responses for frequent chemical accidents. Unlike in cases of detailed plant safety design, real-time accident responses require fast and iterative calculations to reduce the uncertainty of the distribution of damage within the affected area. EPA ALOHA and KORA of National Institute of Chemical Safety have been popular choices for these analyses. However, this study proposes an initiative to supplement the model and code continuously and is different in its development of free software, specialized for small and medium enterprises. Compared to the full-scale computational fluid dynamics (CFD), which requires large amounts of computation time, the relative accuracy loss is compromised, and the convenience of the general user is improved. Using Python open-source libraries as well as meteorological information linkage, it is made possible to expand and update the functions continuously. Users can easily obtain the results by simply inputting the layout of the plant and the materials used. Accuracy is verified against full-scale CFD simulations, and it will be distributed as open source software, supporting GPU-accelerated computing for fast computation.

Optimal Gas Detection System in Cargo Compressor Room of Gas Fueled LNG Carrier (가스추진 LNG 운반선의 가스 압축기실에 설치된 가스검출장치의 최적 배치에 관한 연구)

  • Lee, Sang-Won;Shao, Yude;Lee, Seung-Hun;Lee, Jin-Uk;Jeong, Eun-Seok;Kang, Ho-Keun
    • Journal of the Korean Society of Marine Environment & Safety
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    • v.25 no.5
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    • pp.617-626
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    • 2019
  • This study analyzes the optimal location of gas detectors through the gas dispersion in a cargo compressor room of a 174K LNG carrier equipped with high-pressure cargo handling equipment; in addition, we propose a reasonable method for determining the safety regulations specified in the new International Code of the Construction and Equipment of Ships Carrying Liquefied Gases in Bulk (IGC). To conduct an LNG gas dispersion simulation in the cargo compressor room-equipped with an ME-GI engine-of a 174 K LNG carrier, the geometry of the room as well as the equipment and piping, are designed using the same 3D size at a 1-to-1 scale. Scenarios for a gas leak were examined under high pressure of 305 bar and low pressure of 1 bar. The pinhole sizes for high pressure are 4.5, 5.0, and 5.6mm, and for low pressure are 100 and 140 mm. The results demonstrate that the cargo compressor room will not pose a serious risk with respect to the flammable gas concentration as verified by a ventilation assessment for a 5.6 mm pinhole for a high-pressure leak under gas rupture conditions, and a low-pressure leak of 100 and 140 mm with different pinhole sizes. However, it was confirmed that the actual location of the gas detection sensors in a cargo compressor room, according to the new IGC code, should be moved to other points, and an analysis of the virtual monitor points through a computational fluid dynamics (CFD) simulation.

CFD-based Fire Accident Impact Analysis in Clean Room for semiconductor PR Process (반도체 PR 공정의 클린룸내 CFD 기반 화재 사고 영향 분석)

  • Chun, Kwang-Su;Yi, Jinseok;Park, Myeongnam
    • Journal of the Korean Institute of Gas
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    • v.25 no.6
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    • pp.35-44
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    • 2021
  • The PR (Photo Resist) process in the semiconductor process is a process that uses a mixture of flammable substances. Due to the process equipment is installed in a clean room and when flammable substances leak, there is a high risk of suffocation, fire, and explosion. It is necessary to analyze the impact of accidents that may occur during operation and to evaluate whether the safety of workers can be guaranteed. In this study, the value of radiant heat and temperature change at the monitor point set up virtual inside the clean room was confirmed through CFD simulation of 10 leak and fire scenarios using the FLACS CFD - Fire Module. A fire that occurs inside a clean room transfers high radiant heat to the inter-story structure, but its scope is quite limited, and it is unlikely that it will collapse in a single fire accident. There was no scenario in which two stairs leading to the exit were exposed to high radiant heat at the same time due to a fire accident, therefore workers were able to escape in case of a fire. In addition, it was confirmed that the level of radiant heat and temperature rise rapidly decreased as they moved downstairs. According to the API 520 standard, workers exposed to 6.31 kW/m2 of radiant heat that workers can withstand for 30 seconds were confirmed that it was possible to sufficiently escape from the inside.

A Study on the Safety Distance of the Fuelling Facilities by the Radiation Heat in the Fire at the Gas Station (주유소 내 부대시설 화재발생시 복사열에 따른 주유설비 안전거리에 관한 연구)

  • Kim, Kisung;Lee, Sangwon;Song, Dongwoo
    • Journal of the Korean Institute of Gas
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    • v.25 no.6
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    • pp.7-13
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    • 2021
  • Various research has been done on fires and explosions at gas stations at home and abroad. However, only studies of off-site damage in the event of fire at the gas station were conducted, and research on fire at the auxiliary facilities in the gas station was insufficient. The gas station is a place where anyone can easily access dangerous goods. As the risk of fire increases due to the recent increase of auxiliary facilities such as convenience stores and car repair shops in gas stations, it is important to detect the effects of fire on the main oil refinery in case of fire and to verify the validity of existing regulations. In this thesis, we conducted a study to find out the effect of radiation heat on the separation between fixed and fixed oil reactors in the event of fire at an auxiliary facility. Simulation was modelled using FDS 5.5.3 Version, and the size of the fire source was configured with 13 fire assessment devices and the heat emission rate per unit area was entered. Simulation shows that the separation distance of 2 m does not secure the safety of the gas pump in the event of fire at the auxiliary facilities, and radiation heat does not damage at the separation distance of at least 4 m. Accordingly, facilities that can block radiant heat in the event of fire at auxiliary facilities, and measures to limit the use of auxiliary facilities or to re-impose the separation between buildings and fixtures will be needed.

Estimation of Potential Risk and Numerical Simulations of Landslide Disaster based on UAV Photogrammetry (무인 항공사진측량 정보를 기반으로 한 산사태 수치해석 및 위험도 평가)

  • Choi, Jae Hee;Choi, Bong Jin;Kim, Nam Gyun;Lee, Chang Woo;Seo, Jun Pyo;Jun, Byong Hee
    • KSCE Journal of Civil and Environmental Engineering Research
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    • v.41 no.6
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    • pp.675-686
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    • 2021
  • This study investigated the ground displacement occurring in a slope below a waste-rock dumping site and estimated the likelihood of a disaster due to a landslide. To start with, photogrammetry was conducted by unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs) to investigate the size and extent of the ground displacement. From April 2019 to July 2020, the average error rate of the five UAV surveys was 0.011-0.034 m, and an elevation change of 2.97 m occurred due to the movement of the soil layer. Only some areas of the slope showedelevation change, and this was believed to be due to thegroundwater generated during rainfall rather than the effect of the waste-rock load at the top. Sensitivity analysis for LS-RAPID simulation was performed, and the simulation results were compared and analyzed by applying a digital elevation model (DEM) and a digital surface model (DSM)as terrain data with 10 m, 5 m, and 4 m grids. When data with high spatial resolution were used, the extent of the sedimentation of landslide material tended to be excessively expanded in the DEM. In contrast, in the result of applying a DSM, which reflects the topography in detail, the diffusion range was not significantly affected even when the spatial resolution was changed, and the sedimentation behavior according to the river shape could be accurately expressed. As a result, it was concluded that applying a DSM rather than a DEM does not significantly expand the sedimentation range, and results that reflect the site situation well can be obtained.

Development of Modeling and Simulation Tool for the Performance Analysis of Pods Mounted on Highly Maneuverable Aircraft (고기동 항공기 탑재 파드 성능 분석을 위한 모델링 및 시뮬레이션 도구 개발)

  • Lee, Sanghyun;Shin, Jinyoung;Lee, Jaein;Kim, Jongbum;Kim, Songhyon;Kim, Sitae;Cho, Donghyurn
    • Journal of the Korean Society for Aeronautical & Space Sciences
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    • v.50 no.7
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    • pp.507-514
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    • 2022
  • The EO/IR targeting pod mounted on a fighter to acquire information about tactical targets is typically mounted and operated at the bottom of the aircraft fuselage. Since the aircraft equipped with such an external attachment has complexed aerodynamic and inertial characteristics compared to the aircraft flying without an external attachment, a method of system performance analyses is required to identify development risk factors in the early stages of development and reflect them in the design. In this study, a development plan was presented to provide the necessary modeling and simulation tools to develop a pod that can acquire measurement data stably in a highly maneuverable environment. The limiting operating conditions of the pods mounted on the highly maneuverable aircraft were derived, the aerodynamics and inertial loads of the mounted pods were analyzed according to the limiting operating conditions, and a flight data generation and transmission system were developed by simulating the mission of the aircraft equipped with the mounted pods.