• Journal of Preventive Medicine and Public Health
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• v.30 no.3 s.58
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• pp.530-539
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• 1997

This study was conducted to assess the health risk on the volatile organic compounds such as toluene, xylene, and styrene in painting workplace. It was monitored through personal air sampling during working time in selected 5 workplaces and analysed using gas chromatography. For the settlement of exposure situation, there were regarded working conditions such as working hours, yearly working days, and working years. Also, Monte-Carlo simulation was used for the induction of hazard index using toxicity value from IRIS(Integrated risk information system) database. The results of risk assessment were summarized as follows. 1. The air concentration of toluene was $7.096{\pm}15,644ppm,\;2.586{\pm}4.275ppm\;for\;xylene,\;1.914{\pm}5.320ppm$ for styrene in blast painting workplaces. The level of toluene was different significantly compared with the level of xylene and styrene. 2. Computated chronic daily intake values of 95th percentile on toluene, xylene and styrene treated by Monte-Carlo simulation were 9.616, 3.567, 2.782 mg/kg/day, respectively. 3. Computated hazard index values of 75th percentile on toluene, xylene and styrene treated by Monte-Carlo simulation were 3.5, 1.0 and 1.6, respectively. Adverse health effects on the toluene, xylene and styrene would be expected by working exposure in selected 5 workplaces since the hazard indices of three compounds were exceeded 1 in the surroundings of 75th percentile though having the low emerged frequency.

• Journal of the Korea Society for Simulation
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• v.33 no.1
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• pp.27-34
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• 2024

This study aims to propose an optimal asset allocation that minimizes the risk of insufficient realized replacement rates compared to the OECD average replacement rate. To do this, we set the shortfall risk of replacement rates and calculates an asset allocation plan to minimize this risk based on the period of enrollment, the income level and additional contribution. We consider stocks and deposits as investment assets, using Monte Carlo simulation with a GBM model to generate return distributions for stocks. Our result show that, for individuals with a enrollment period of less than 30 years, participants should invest a minimum of 70-80% of their funds in risky assets to minimize the shortfall risk. However, the proportion of funds that need to be invested in risky assets declines significantly when participants contribute an additional premiums. This effect is particularly pronounced among low-income individuals. Therefore, to achieve OECD average replacement rates, the government needs to incentivize participants to invest more in risky assets, while also providing policies to encourage additional contributions, especially for the low-income population.

• Korean Management Science Review
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• v.12 no.3
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• pp.77-95
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• 1995

This paper shows the case study of risk analysis in an weapon system research and development project. For risk analysis, an advanced stochastic networking technique-VERT (Venture Evaluation and Review Technique) is used. Assumptions for activities of network diagram and conversion methods from PERT ( Program Evaluation and Review Technique) to VERT are discussed. Also, simulation result is presented and discussed.

• Journal of Information Technology Services
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• v.7 no.1
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• pp.117-130
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• 2008

Multi-attribute risk assessments provide a useful framework for systematic quantitative risk assessment that the security manager can use to prioritize security requirements and threats. In the first step, the security managers identify the four significant outcome attributes(lost revenue, lost productivity, lost customer, and recovery cost). Next. the security manager estimates the frequency and severity(three points estimates for outcome attribute values) for each threat and rank the outcome attributes according to AHP(Analytic Hierarchy Process). Finally, we generate the threat index by using muiti-attribute function and make sensitivity analysis with simulation package(Crystal Ball). In this paper, we show how multi-attribute risk analysis techniques from the field of security risk management can be used by security managers to prioritize their organization's threats and their security requirements, eventually they can derive threat index. This threat index can help security managers to decide whether their security investment is consistent with the expected risks. In addition, sensitivity analysis allows the security manager to explore the estimates to understand how they affect the selection.

• Journal of Korean Tunnelling and Underground Space Association
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• v.12 no.5
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• pp.379-387
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• 2010

In this study, a case study was introduced for the design of a twin tunnel along high speed national highway Route 12 from Damyang to Sungsan. It was related to determine the optimal tunnel support pattern and excavation method based on a risk analysis in order to incorporate the uncertainty of ground properties. To this end, three alternatives with different amounts of support and excavation method were selected and risk analysis was performed by applying Monte Carlo simulation technique, respectively. Stability of the tunnel was quantified by the factor of safety. To improve the result, the 729 cases of the combination of ground properties (deformation modulus, cohesion, and internal friction angle) satisfying a Gaussian distribution were generated and applied. Also, stability of the tunnel was confirmed by analyzing the distribution of both displacement and shotcrete bending stress.

• Journal of the Korean Data and Information Science Society
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• v.20 no.5
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• pp.887-894
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• 2009

The two-stage minimum risk point estimation of mean, the probability of success in a sequence of Bernoulli trials, is considered for the case where loss is taken to be symmetrized relative squared error of estimation, plus a fixed cost per observation. First order asymptotic expansions are obtained for large sample properties of two-stage procedure. Monte Carlo simulation is carried out to obtain the expected sample size that minimizes the risk and to examine its finite sample behavior.

• Water Engineering Research
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• v.3 no.4
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• pp.215-234
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• 2002

Uncertainty in dam breach flood routing results was analyzed in order to provide the basis fer the investigation of their effects on the flood damage assessments and dam safety risk assessments. The Monte Carlo simulation based on Latin Hypercube Sampling technique was used to generate random values for two uncertain input parameters (i.e., dam breach parameters and Manning's n roughness coefficients) of a dam breach flood routing analysis model. The flood routing results without considering the uncertainty in two input parameters were compared with those with considering the uncertainty. This paper showed that dam breach flood routing results heavily depend on the two uncertain input parameters. This study indicated that the flood damage assessments in the downstream areas can be critical if uncertainty in dam breach flood routing results are considered in a reasonable manner.

• Journal of the Korean Statistical Society
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• v.26 no.4
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• pp.429-443
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• 1997

We consider the problem of obtaining several types of simultaneous confidence bands for the survival curve under the additive risk model. The derivation uses the weak convergence of normalized cumulative hazard estimator to a mean zero Gaussian process whose distribution can be easily approxomated through simulation. The bands are illustrated by applying them from two well-known clinicla studies. Finally, simulation studies are carried outo to compare the performance of the proposed bands for the survival function under the additive risk model.

• Proceedings of the Korean Institute of Building Construction Conference
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• 2019.05a
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• pp.246-247
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• 2019

This study was conducted to provide useful information to enable planned repair and cost planning during the operation and maintenance phase of aged multi-family housing. For this purpose, The concept of probabilistic maintenance cost analysis considering the risk factors of the aged multi-family housing is presented in the following six steps. 1. Risk factor investigation and analysis 2. Classification and deriving of maintenance cost 3. Investigation and deriving cost maintenance cost of old apartment house 4. Analysis of expert questionnaire 5. Analysis of Monte -Carlo simulation 6. Probabilistic maintenance cost Deriving the result. This study has limitations that need to be verified by applying actual data.

• Proceedings of KOSOMES biannual meeting
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• 2017.11a
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• pp.130-130
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• 2017