• Title/Summary/Keyword: Risk simulation

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Structural Performance of Reinforced Concrete Flat Plate Buildings Subjected to Fire

  • George, Sara J.;Tian, Ying
    • International Journal of Concrete Structures and Materials
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    • v.6 no.2
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    • pp.111-121
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    • 2012
  • The research presented in this paper analytically examines the fire performance of flat plate buildings. The modeling parameters for the mechanical and thermal properties of materials are calibrated from relevant test data to minimize the uncertainties involved in analysis. The calibrated models are then adopted to perform a nonlinear finite element simulation on a flat plate building subjected to fire. The analysis examines the characteristics of slab deflection, in-plane deformation, membrane force, bending moment redistribution, and slab rotational deformation near the supporting columns. The numerical simulation enables the understanding of structural performance of flat plate under elevated temperature and, more importantly, identifies the high risk of punching failure at slab-column connections that may trigger large-scale failure in flat plate structures.

Performance of Pairs Trading Algorithm with the Implementation of Structural Changes Detection Procedure (구조적 변화 감지 과정이 포함된 페어트레이딩 알고리즘의 성과분석)

  • Jung, In Kon;Park, Dae Keun;Jun, Duk Bin
    • Journal of the Korean Operations Research and Management Science Society
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    • v.42 no.3
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    • pp.13-24
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    • 2017
  • This paper aims to implement "structural changes detection procedure" in pairs trading algorithm and to show that the proposed approach outperforms the extant pair trading algorithm. Structural changes in pairs trading are defined in terms of changes in cointegrating factors and broken cointegration relationship. These changes are designed to test extant structural changes and unit root test methodologies. The simulation finds that expanding the changes in structure, increasing the mean reverting process of spread, and extending the consecutive days of broken cointegration will increase the performances of the proposed algorithm. Empirical study results are also consistent those of the simulation studies. The proposed algorithm outperforms the extant algorithm relative to risk and return given that the cumulative profit/loss has a significant upward-slope with minimal variance.

Analysis of Small reservoir system by Flood control ability augmentation (치수능력 증대에 따른 저수지시스템 분석)

  • Park Ki-Bum;Lee Soon-Tak
    • Journal of Environmental Science International
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    • v.14 no.11
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    • pp.995-1004
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    • 2005
  • As a research establish reservoir safety operation for small dam systems. This study presents hydrologic analysis conducted in the Duckdong and Bomun dam watershed based on various rainfall data and increase inflow. Especially the Duckdong dam without flood control feature are widely exposed to the risk of flooding, thus it is constructed emergency gate at present. In this study reservoir routing program was simulation for basin runoff estimating using HEC-HMS model, the model simulation the reservoir condition of emergency Sate with and without. At the reservoir analysis results is the Duckdong dam average storage decrease $20\%$ with emergency gate than without emergency gate. Also, the Bomun dam is not affected by the Duckdong flood control augmentation.

Confounding of Time Trend with Dropout Process in Longitudinal Data Analysis

  • Kim, Ji-Hyun;Choi, Hye-Hyun
    • Communications for Statistical Applications and Methods
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    • v.9 no.3
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    • pp.703-713
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    • 2002
  • In longitudinal studies, outcomes are repeatedly measured over time for each subject. It is common to have missing values or dropouts for longitudinal data. In this study time trend in longitudinal data with dropouts is of concern. The confounding of time trend with dropout process is investigated through simulation studies. Some simulation results are reported for binary responses as well as continuous responses with patterns of dropouts varying. It has been found that time trend is not confounded with random dropout process for binary responses when it is estimated using GEE.

Analysis of Runaway Reaction at Styrene Suspension Polymerization (스티렌 현탁 중합반응에서 폭주반응 해석)

  • 박형일;신석주;이헌창;장서일;김태옥
    • Journal of the Korean Society of Safety
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    • v.17 no.3
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    • pp.81-89
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    • 2002
  • The runaway reaction was analyzed experimently and theoretically at the batch styrene suspension polymerization process. In the experiments, the reaction temperature with time was measured at various experimental conditions. According to the experimental results, the risk of the runaway reaction was increased with increasing the ratio of the monomer(styrene, M) to the dispersion medium(water, W), the concentration of the initiator(BPO), and the monomer mass, respectively. And simulation results showed that the runaway reaction was significantly affected by the reaction rate constant of the propagation and that the phenomena of the runaway reaction occurred at about 70% conversion. Also, we found that the runaway reaction did not occur under the operating condition of below 0.5 for M/W, approximate 3 wt% BPO, and below 75$^{\circ}C$ for the cooling temperature.

Development of a Simulator of a Magnetic Suspension and Balance System

  • Lee, Dong-Kyu;Lee, Jun-Seong;Han, Jae-Hung;Kawamura, Yoshiyuki;Chung, Sang-Joon
    • International Journal of Aeronautical and Space Sciences
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    • v.11 no.3
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    • pp.175-183
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    • 2010
  • The increased demand for a higher performing magnetic suspension and balance system (MSBS) resulted in an increase in costs for the efforts necessary for achieving an improved MSBS. Therefore, MSBS performance should be predicted during the design in order to reduce risk. This paper presents the modeling and simulation of an MSBS that controls 6-degree of freedom (DOF) of an aerodynamic body within the MSBS. Permanent magnets and electromagnets were modeled as coils, and this assumption was verified by experimental results. Finally, an MSBS simulator was developed, predicting that the MSBS is able to contain the model within a bounded region as well as measure external forces acting on the body during wind tunnel tests.

Simulating Avoidance Actions and Evaluating Navigational Rules in An Expert System of Collision Avoidance

  • Jeong, Tae-Gwoen;Chao, Chen
    • Proceedings of the Korean Institute of Navigation and Port Research Conference
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    • 2007.12a
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    • pp.79-80
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    • 2007
  • An expert system of collision avoidance developed by CLIPS and Visual C++ is continuously introduced in this paper. Further, a simulation function of collision avoidance is added to the expert system, the function can simulate the avoidance actions of own ship and a specific target of a period of future time. This function can help navigators to estimate collision risk and make proper collision avoidance actions in dangerous situations for navigational safety of ships. Furthermore, navigational rules can also be evaluated during the process of simulation.

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Free-wing Tilt-body Aircraft Controllerability Analysis (자유날개 동체꺾임형 항공기의 조종성 해석)

  • Park, Wook-Je
    • Journal of the Korean Society for Aviation and Aeronautics
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    • v.19 no.1
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    • pp.1-6
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    • 2011
  • The free-wing tilt-body aircraft is researched in the flight performance characteristics such as short take-off and landing capability, and reduced sensitivity to gust and center of gravity (CG) change. Due to the main wing separating from the fuselage, the high tiltable empennage, and the stub-wing strongly influencing from the propeller wake, the resulting vehicle aerodynamics and flight dynamics are quite different from those of a conventional fixed-wing aircraft. Using the governing flight dynamics model was studied previously, all of speed and body tilt angle is simulated to determine the flight envelope by a non-linear 3-DOF flight simulation analysis. Though flight performance and trimmability are studied, the flight model of free-wing tilt-body aircraft is to reduce the hidden risk and to achieve the successful flight test. It is analyzed the flight characteristics that distinguishes free-wing tilt-body aircraft from the conventional aircraft.

A Study on Analysis of Passenger Safety in Railroad Tunnel Fire - Using Simulation - (시뮬레이션을 이용한 철도터널 화재 사고의 승객 안전도 분석)

  • Kim, Dong-Jin;Moon, Seong-Am;Kim, Dong-Gun;Kim, Kyung-Sup;Jang, Young-Joon;Jung, Woo-Sung
    • Journal of the Korean Society for Railway
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    • v.10 no.2 s.39
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    • pp.131-136
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    • 2007
  • In this paper, the methodology to predict the number of deaths and possible fire propagation scenarios will be described in case of fire on a train in a tunnel. We use a probabilistic analysis method for the evaluation of possibility for each scenario and the deaths tolls are calculated with the help of the passenger evacuation simulation program. The resulting safety of passengers is displayed on a F/N graph, which could be used in part as a guideline to predict the safety level of the tunnel in fire.

Mitigation of Sub-synchronous Oscillation Caused by Thyristor Controlled Series Capacitor Using Supplementary Excitation Damping Controller

  • Wu, Xi;Jiang, Ping;Chen, Bo-Lin;Xiong, Hua-Chuan
    • Journal of international Conference on Electrical Machines and Systems
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    • v.1 no.2
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    • pp.58-63
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    • 2012
  • The Test Signal Method is adopted to analyze the impact of thyristor controlled series capacitor (TCSC) on sub-synchronous oscillation. The results show that the simulation system takes the risk of Sub-synchronous Oscillation (SSO) while the TCSC is operating in the capacitive region. A supplementary excitation damping controller (SEDC) is used to mitigate SSO caused by the TCSC. A new optimization method which is aimed for optimal phase compensation is proposed. This method is realized by using the particle swarm optimization (PSO) algorithm. The simulation results show that the SEDC designed by this method has superior suitability, and that the secure operation scope of the TCSC is greatly increased.