• Journal of Environmental Impact Assessment
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• v.20 no.4
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• pp.489-496
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• 2011

The water pollution such as oil spill from stream and river because of car accidents have been frequent cases in the watershed of Dam. However we don't have any simulation methods about flow modeling on the watershed and stream tree. In this study aims to analyze water pollution accidents area on impact range for ANDONG-Dam. The focused watershed and the risk range of path analysis model was designed by GIS database. The frequency of transportation accidents which may occur from road accidents in the level of quantitative and qualitative analysis to map flow analysis using ArcHydro Model and Open Geospatial Consortium(OGC) API. and the path way from the accident point to the reservoir stayed on the path was simulated. The area of risk accessment index was displayed with cell and grid of dam area.

• The Transactions of the Korean Institute of Electrical Engineers C
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• v.51 no.4
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• pp.164-168
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• 2002

The main hazard leading to breakdown in GIS(Gas Insulated Switchgear) comes from free conducting particles, which can cross between tee electrodes and cause dielectric failure under the influence of the electric field. Bouncing height of the particle can be an important factor to evaluate the possibility of breakdown occurrence. In this paper, how to estimate, outside a GIS, the bouncing height of the particle was newly suggested when GIS is in service. Both experimental results using 362 kV test chamber and computer simulation results on estimating the height were presented and compared with each other.

• Proceedings of the Korea Water Resources Association Conference
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• 2010.05a
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• pp.581-585
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• 2010

This study introduced a Bayesian based frequency analysis in which the statistical trend seasonal analysis for hydrologic extreme series is incorporated. The proposed model employed Gumbel and GEV extreme distribution to characterize extreme events and a fully coupled bayesian frequency model was finally utilized to estimate design rainfalls in Seoul. Posterior distributions of the model parameters in both trend and seasonal analysis were updated through Markov Chain Monte Carlo Simulation mainly utilizing Gibbs sampler. This study proposed a way to make use of nonstationary frequency model for dynamic risk analysis, and showed an increase of hydrologic risk with time varying probability density functions. In addition, full annual cycle of the design rainfall through seasonal model could be applied to annual control such as dam operation, flood control, irrigation water management, and so on. The proposed study showed advantage in assessing statistical significance of parameters associated with trend analysis through statistical inference utilizing derived posterior distributions.

• The Korean Journal of Applied Statistics
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• v.18 no.3
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• pp.543-553
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• 2005

Linear logistic regression is one of the most widely used method for credit scoring in credit risk management. This paper deals with credit scoring using splines based on Logistic regression. Linear splines and an automatic basis selection algorithm are adopted. The final model is an example of the generalized additive model. A simulation using a real data set is used to illustrate the performance of the spline method.

• Proceedings of the Korean Institute of Navigation and Port Research Conference
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• 2006.10a
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• pp.144-153
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• 2006

In order to take TC forecasts from different observatories into consideration, and make quantitative assessment and analysis for avoiding TC routes from the view of safety and cost, a new safe-economic decision making method of TC avoidance routing on ocean was put forward. This model is based on combining forecast of TC trace based on neural networks, technical method to determine the future TC wind and wave fields, technical method of fuzzy information optimization, risk analysis theory, and meteorological-economic decision making theory. It has applied to the simulation of MV Tianlihai's shipping on ocean. The result shows that the model can select the optimum plan from 7 plans, the selected plan is in accordance with the one selected by experienced captains.

• Communications for Statistical Applications and Methods
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• v.23 no.6
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• pp.555-562
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• 2016

Interval censored data often occur in an observational study where the subject is followed periodically. Instead of observing an exact failure time, two inspection times that include it are available. There are several methods to analyze interval censored failure time data (Sun, 2006). However, in the presence of competing risks, few methods have been suggested to estimate covariate effect on interval censored competing risk data. A sub-distribution hazard model is a commonly used regression model because it has one-to-one correspondence with a cumulative incidence function. Alternatively, Klein and Andersen (2005) proposed a pseudo-value approach that directly uses the cumulative incidence function. In this paper, we consider an extension of the pseudo-value approach into the interval censored data to estimate regression coefficients. The pseudo-values generated from the estimated cumulative incidence function then become response variables in a generalized estimating equation. Simulation studies show that the suggested method performs well in several situations and an HIV-AIDS cohort study is analyzed as a real data example.

• Wind and Structures
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• v.4 no.6
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• pp.455-468
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• 2001

This paper presents recent research on the experimental evaluation of wind loads on low buildings and the recommendations provided in the form of traditional codification. These mainly include the wind loads on buildings with geometries different from those examined in previous studies. This is followed by the evaluation of simulated wind loads on low building roofs. The overall application of a recently proposed simulation methodology for codification purposes is discussed in detail. The traditional codification provides for a group of roof geometries a single peak design pressure coefficient for each roof zone considering a nominal worst-case scenario; this may often lead to uneconomical loads. Alternatively, the presented methodology is capable of providing peak pressure coefficients corresponding to specific roof geometries and according to risk levels; this can generate risk consistent and more economical design wind loads for specific roof configurations taking into account, for instance, directional design conditions and upstream roughnesses.

• Communications for Statistical Applications and Methods
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• v.26 no.3
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• pp.239-259
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• 2019

The transmuted generalized extreme value (TGEV) distribution was first introduced by Aryal and Tsokos (Nonlinear Analysis: Theory, Methods & Applications, 71, 401-407, 2009) and applied by Nascimento et al. (Hacettepe Journal of Mathematics and Statistics, 45, 1847-1864, 2016). However, they did not give explicit expressions for all the moments, tail behaviour, quantiles, survival and risk functions and order statistics. The TGEV distribution is a more flexible model than the simple GEV distribution to model extreme or rare events because the right tail of the TGEV is heavier than the GEV. In addition the TGEV distribution can adjusted various forms of asymmetry. In this article, explicit expressions for these measures of the TGEV are obtained. The tail behavior and the survival and risk functions were determined for positive gamma, the moments for nonzero gamma and the moment generating function for zero gamma. The performance of the maximum likelihood estimators (MLEs) of the TGEV parameters were tested through a series of Monte Carlo simulation experiments. In addition, the model was used to fit three real data sets related to financial returns.

• International conference on construction engineering and project management
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• 2015.10a
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• pp.174-178
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• 2015

This paper presents a new method for forecasting construction project cost and time at completion or at any intermediate time horizon of the project duration. The method is designed to overcome identified limitations of current applications of earned value method in forecasting project cost and time. The proposed method usesfuzzy set theory to model uncertainties associated with project performance and it integrates the earned value technique and the contractors' judgement. The fuzzy set theory is applied as an alternative approach to deterministic and probabilistic methods. Using fuzzy set theory allows contractors to: (1) perform risk analysis for different scenarios of project performance indices, and (2) perform different scenarios expressing vagueness and imprecision of forecasted project cost and time using a set of measures and indices. Unlike the current applications of Earned Value Method(EVM), The proposed method has a numberof interesting features: (1) integrating contractors' judgement in forecasting project performance; (2) enabling contractors to evaluate the risk associated with cost overrun in much simpler method comparing with that of simulation, and (3) accounting for uncertainties involved in the forecasting project cost.

• Journal of the Korea Society for Simulation
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• v.15 no.3
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• pp.93-101
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• 2006

Recently, work-related musculoskeletal disorders (WMSDs) become a hot issue in the industrial fields. To prevent the potential risk of workers, various approaches have been adopted. One of the approaches is to improve the design of product, that of jig (or fixture) and that of workstation in the early stage of the development. 3D simulation technology is known as the powerful method for detecting such problems before constructing the workstation, because it is possible to evaluate the posture of worker using 3D models in a cyber space. It enables to find the unexpected problems and save the time and cost for redesign and rework. This paper introduces a 3D simulation case study of workers in an excavator factory. 3D models of products, jigs were developed with CATIA. The assembly processes were animated in IGRIP and DPM. Finally the various postures of worker were simulated using Human. As a result, some postures were analysed as the risky jobs and the result of simulation was used to improve the system.