• The Korean Journal of Applied Statistics
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• v.26 no.3
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• pp.483-494
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• 2013

The importance of financial risk management has been highlighted after several recent incidences of global financial crisis. One of the issues in financial risk management is how to measure the risk; currently, the most widely used risk measure is the Value at Risk(VaR). We can consider to estimate VaR using extreme value theory if the financial data have heavy tails as the recent market trend. In this paper, we study estimations of VaR using Peaks over Threshold(POT), which is a common method of modeling fat-tailed data using extreme value theory. To use POT, we first estimate parameters of the Generalized Pareto Distribution(GPD). Here, we compare three different methods of estimating parameters of GPD by comparing the performance of the estimated VaR based on KOSPI 5 minute-data. In addition, we simulate data from normal inverse Gaussian distributions and examine two parameter estimation methods of GPD. We find that the recent methods of parameter estimation of GPD work better than the maximum likelihood estimation when the kurtosis of the return distribution of KOSPI is very high and the simulation experiment shows similar results.

• Journal of the Korea Academia-Industrial cooperation Society
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• v.14 no.7
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• pp.3358-3367
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• 2013

This study was conducted to examine the effects of the elderly patient's simulation experience on attitudes toward elderly and elderly patients, and empathy of elderly patients among nursing students. Study results showed that elderly patient's simulation experience did not have significant effects on attitudes toward elderly or elderly patients, whereas it had significant effect on enhancing the empathy on elderly patients. The subjects of experimental group indicated that the factors decreasing the effect of intervention are single event of experience, raising aging anxiety, lack of the reality of simulation clothing, and risk of accident during simulation experience, etc. In order to maximize the positive effects of the elderly patient's simulation program, it is necessary to find a way to improve those limiting factors identified from this study, and to continue to work on positive effects of elderly simulation applied for their curriculum.

• Journal of the Korea Institute of Information and Communication Engineering
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• v.21 no.6
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• pp.1218-1224
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• 2017

With the increasing risk in building liquefied natural gas carriers (LNGC), pre-simulation of various scenarios is required for system integration and safe operation. In particular, the power management system (PMS) is an important part of the LNGC; it works in tight integration with the power control systems to achieve the desired performance and safety. To verify and improve unpredicted errors, we implemented a simulation model of power generation and consumption for testing PMS based on software-in-the-loop (SIL) method. To control and verify the PMS, numeric and physical simulation modeling was undertaken utilizing MATLAB/Simulink. In addition, the simulation model was verified with a load sharing test scenario for a sea trial. This simulation allows shipbuilders to participate in new value-added markets such as commissioning, installation, operation, and maintenance.

• Asia-Pacific Journal of Business Venturing and Entrepreneurship
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• v.10 no.6
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• pp.253-260
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• 2015

In this study, using the FDS as the fire simulation and evacuation simulations of the Pathfinder, set the main control room of the building to the fire point fire safety assessment studies were carried out. At first the quantitative result such as distribution of visibility as time passing, distribution of temperature, distribution of CO density produced results using fire-simulation and evacuation-simulation was carried out based on the result that produced the final safety evaluation result as being calculated of evacuation time. As the risk increased with the distribution of visibility at the result of fire-simulation, evacuation-simulation was carried out using the result. Finally the result was made 127.9 sec that everyone could evacuate. The numerical results are analyzed in case of the places in the building required safe egress time for safety a as the analysis to be no more than available safe egress time was analyzed to be secured. The results of this safety evaluation represent that more smooth evacuation safety performance can be secured by linking the event of fire firefighting equipment as a result of simulating the worst conditions.

• Journal of the Korea Society for Simulation
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• v.19 no.3
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• pp.127-135
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• 2010

Modern marine navigation requires officers on the bridge to monitor a torrent of data on both the insides and outsides of the ship from numerous useful devices. But despite these tools, navigators can still find it difficult to make a safe decision for two reasons: one is that too much data if provided too quickly tends to cause fatigue and overwhelm the officer, and the other is that any inconsistency across data from several different types of devices can lead to confusion. Indeed, the fact remains that the many marine accidents can be attributed to human error, and hence there is a strong need for decision-support tools for marine navigation. One technique of providing decision support is through the use of simulation to evaluate or predict system dynamics over time using an accurate model. This paper, as a simulation method for risk prediction for a navigation safety information system of ship, suggests a navigation prediction simulation system using various knowledge bases and discrete event simulation methodology, and supports the validity of the system through the examples of components in a restricted navigation situation scenario.

• KSII Transactions on Internet and Information Systems (TIIS)
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• v.14 no.5
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• pp.2186-2203
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• 2020

Security administrators of companies and organizations need to come up with proper countermeasures against cyber-attacks considering infrastructures and security policies in their possession. In order to develop and verify such countermeasures, the administrators should be able to reenact both cyber-attacks and defenses. Simulations can be useful for the reenactment by overcoming its limitations including high risk and cost. If the administrators are able to design various scenarios of cyber-attacks and to develop simulation models from their viewpoints, they can simulate desired situations and observe the results more easily. It is challenging to simulate cyber-security issues, because there is lack of theoretical basis for modeling a wide range of the security field as well as pre-defined basic components used to model cyber-attacks. In this paper, we propose a modeling method for cyber-security simulations by developing a basic component and a composite model, called Abstracted Cyber-Security Unit Model (ACSUM) and Abstracted Cyber-security SIMulation model (ACSIM), respectively. The proposed models are based on DEVS(Discrete Event systems Specification) formalism, a modeling theory for discrete event simulations. We develop attack scenarios by sequencing attack behaviors using ACSUMs and then model ACSIMs by combining and abstracting the ACSUMs from a security perspective. The concepts of ACSUM and ACSIM enable the security administrators to simulate numerous cyber-security issues from their viewpoints. As a case study, we model a worm scenario using ACSUM and simulate three types of simulation models based on ACSIM from a different security perspective.

• Journal of the Society of Disaster Information
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• v.11 no.4
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• pp.581-588
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• 2015

This study was conducted by utilizing simulation (FDS6) the fire characteristics of the flammable substances such as cable compartment of a small space in the EPS room type. In the partitioned space of a room EPS supply of oxygen does not facilitate the combustion of the upward-sloping curve, as in a standard fire curve is not observed. Simulation results in a situation where ventilation is limited to the heat release rate and smoke emission characteristics of the fire showed a complex and unstable form a repeating rise and fall. Fire time was longer than the fire load. Change in the smoke emission than the heat release rate is slow, but changes of the overall surface was found to exhibit affinity.

• Journal of the Society of Disaster Information
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• v.11 no.3
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• pp.337-345
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• 2015

As the modern society becoms industry acceleration and urbanization, disaster and safetry education becoms important to educate and exercise the people for the disaster response and safety. This study suggests safety management method by simulation training and an attitude survey. The researchers of the study suggest as followers: First must be about strengthening eduation that accords to responsibility and part. The second need about manual build and simulation training for expansion disaster and crisis management. The last must be consideration to reconstitute of organization which of be not up to the disaster and crisis management.

• Journal of the Regional Association of Architectural Institute of Korea
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• v.21 no.3
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• pp.109-116
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• 2019

This study aimed to suggest a quantitative model analyzing overcrowding area under emergency evacuation situation in the outpatient department of hospital. Overall study process included the review on legal conditions of an emergency evacuation, the investigation of precedent research documents and the analysis of spatial configuration. The user movement with considering exit gates and the one without considering exit gates were analyzed for routine activity condition. An agent-based simulation was applied for the analysis. Also, user movement for the emergency condition was tested with evacuation simulation. The variation of simulation conditions revealed the difference between overcrowding spaces from situation change. At all nodes, visit frequencies derived from different conditions and situations were compared. The overcrowding spaces are to increase the risk of delaying emergency evacuation time which is critical for user safety. It suggests the need for dispersing overcrowding spaces under evacuation situation. The suggested analysis model can evaluate overcrowding spaces in the outpatient department of hospital and provide locational data for distributing evacuation design resources.

• Nuclear Engineering and Technology
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• v.55 no.3
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• pp.801-813
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• 2023

The events at Three Mile Island in the United States brought about fundamental changes in the ways that simulation would be used in nuclear operations. The need for research simulators was identified to scientifically study human-centered risk and make recommendations for process control system designs. This paper documents the human factors research conducted at the Human Systems and Simulation Laboratory (HSSL) since its inception in 2010 at Idaho National Laboratory. The facility's primary purposes are to provide support to utilities for system upgrades and to validate modernized control room concepts. In the last decade, however, as nuclear industry needs have evolved, so too have the purposes of the HSSL. Thus, beyond control room modernization, human factors researchers have evaluated the security of nuclear infrastructure from cyber adversaries and evaluated human-in-the-loop simulations for joint operations with an integrated hydrogen generation plant. Lastly, our review presents research using human reliability analysis techniques with data collected from HSSL-based studies and concludes with potential future directions for the HSSL, including severe accident management and advanced control room technologies.