• Smart Structures and Systems
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• v.14 no.5
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• pp.847-867
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• 2014

There are continuous efforts to mitigate structural losses from earthquakes and manage risk through seismic risk assessment; seismic fragility curves are widely accepted as an essential tool of such efforts. Seismic fragility curves can be classified into four groups based on how they are derived: empirical, judgmental, analytical, and hybrid. Analytical fragility curves are the most widely used and can be further categorized into two subgroups, depending on whether an analytical function or simulation method is used. Although both methods have shown decent performances for many seismic fragility problems, they often oversimplify the given problems in reliability or structural analyses owing to their built-in assumptions. In this paper, a new method is proposed for the development of seismic fragility curves. Integration with sophisticated software packages for reliability analysis (FERUM) and structural analysis (ZEUS-NL) allows the new method to obtain more accurate seismic fragility curves for less computational cost. Because the proposed method performs reliability analysis using the first-order reliability method, it provides component probabilities as well as useful byproducts and allows further fragility analysis at the system level. The new method was applied to a numerical example of a 2D frame structure, and the results were compared with those by Monte Carlo simulation. The method was found to generate seismic fragility curves more accurately and efficiently. Also, the effect of system reliability analysis on the development of seismic fragility curves was investigated using the given numerical example and its necessity was discussed.

• Journal of Korean Academy of Nursing
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• v.45 no.5
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• pp.723-732
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• 2015

Purpose: The purpose of this study was to develop a system dynamics model for adolescent obesity in Korea that could be used for obesity policy analysis. Methods: On the basis of the casual loop diagram, a model was developed by converting to stock and flow diagram. The Vensim DSS 5.0 program was used in the model development. We simulated method of moments to the calibration of this model with data from The Korea Youth Risk Behavior Web-based Survey 2005 to 2013. We ran the scenario simulation. Results: This model can be used to understand the current adolescent obesity rate, predict the future obesity rate, and be utilized as a tool for controlling the risk factors. The results of the model simulation match well with the data. It was identified that a proper model, able to predict obesity probability, was established. Conclusion: These results of stock and flow diagram modeling in adolescent obesity can be helpful in development of obesity by policy planners and other stakeholders to better anticipate the multiple effects of interventions in both the short and the long term. In the future we suggest the development of an expanded model based on this adolescent obesity model.

• Smart Structures and Systems
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• v.26 no.2
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• pp.175-184
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• 2020

Conventional Monte Carlo simulation-based methods for seismic risk assessment of water networks often require excessive computational time costs due to the hydraulic analysis. In this study, an Artificial Neural Network-based surrogate model was proposed to efficiently evaluate the flow-based system reliability of water distribution networks. The surrogate model was constructed with appropriate training parameters through trial-and-error procedures. Furthermore, a deep neural network with hidden layers and neurons was composed for the high-dimensional network. For network training, the input of the neural network was defined as the damage states of the k-dimensional network facilities, and the output was defined as the network system performance. To generate training data, random sampling was performed between earthquake magnitudes of 5.0 and 7.5, and hydraulic analyses were conducted to evaluate network performance. For a hydraulic simulation, EPANET-based MATLAB code was developed, and a pressure-driven analysis approach was adopted to represent an unsteady-state network. To demonstrate the constructed surrogate model, the actual water distribution network of A-city, South Korea, was adopted, and the network map was reconstructed from the geographic information system data. The surrogate model was able to predict network performance within a 3% relative error at trained epicenters in drastically reduced time. In addition, the accuracy of the surrogate model was estimated to within 3% relative error (5% for network performance lower than 0.2) at different epicenters to verify the robustness of the epicenter location. Therefore, it is concluded that ANN-based surrogate model can be utilized as an alternative model for efficient seismic risk assessment to within 5% of relative error.

• Fire Science and Engineering
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• v.30 no.5
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• pp.144-150
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• 2016

An apartment house with a pilotis that raises the architectural volume and provides a space for circulation is becoming popular. With the popularity of pilotis in apartment houses, people also have a keen interest in the potential fire risk at the pilotis. As residents can only access their apartment house through the pilotis, there is a risk to the occupants if there is fire there. Therefore, this study evaluated the pilotis fire cases of urban multifamily housing to conduct a Fire Dynamics Simulator (FDS) and Fire Evacuation Simulation (FES). Through these two simulation methods, it is possible to validate the riskiness of fire at an apartment with a pilotis. The study identified that the toxic gases and flame spread out to the pilotis within hundred seconds after ignition. In addition, the toxic gases and flame also reach the second floor within three seconds and the entire building within 735 seconds if the entrance doors at the pilotis are opened. On the other hand, the FES simulation results showed that it also takes about approximately 609 seconds to excavate from the apartment house with a pilotis. Therefore, this research shows that an apartment house with a pilotis can ensure the building occupants' lives and their safety if there is fire.

• Journal of the Korea Society for Simulation
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• v.29 no.2
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• pp.21-33
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• 2020

This study develops a simulator for determining the sonar sensor configuration of unmanned underwater vehicles (UUVs) based on a scenario, in order for UUVs to conduct an effective anti-submarine warfare (ASW). First, we analyze the missions and operational concepts of UUVs in the field of ASW, and then select a Hold-at-Risk scenario as the one with the highest priority. Next, for modeling the components of a simulator, the motion, acoustic characteristic, and environment condition of the platforms (UUV and target submarine) are specified. Especially, based on the beam pattern of each sonar configuration considered in this paper, the passive sonar equation is used to verify target detection, and we further estimate the azimuth and elevation of the target using amplitude and phase of the received signal, respectively. The simulation results show the performance tendency depending on the sonar sensor configurations of a UUV, and the simulator provides a high applicability under various scenarios.

• Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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• v.31 no.3
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• pp.337-345
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• 1998

DAMBRK-U model is developed for the evaluation of overtopping risk of dam and levee and for the estimation of uncertainty in floodwave simulation. The original algorithm is revised and expanded to include Monte-Carlo analysis to estimate them. The model is tested by applying to hypothetical channels of widening, uniform and narrowing geometry. Larger variation in discharge and water depth are expected at narrower sections of a river. It is calibrated by applying to the Hantan River, where severe damages from Yunchun dam-break and levee overtopping occurred on July, 1996. Overtopping risk of dam is calculated for various discharge conditions for Yunchun-dam, and that of levee is also calculated by comparing levee height with flood level at Hantan recreation area. Simulation results show that the overflow depth of flood level is 1,266~0.782 m and the overflow risk turns out to be 100%.

• Journal of the Korea Society for Simulation
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• v.28 no.2
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• pp.119-129
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• 2019

Although line production systems with finite buffers have been studied over several decades, except for some special cases there are no explicit expressions for system performances such as waiting times(or response time) and blocking probability. Recently, a max-plus algebraic approach for buffer-sharing systems with constant processing times was introduced and it can lead to analytic expressions for (higher) moment and tail probability of stationary waiting. Theoretically this approach can be applied to general processing times, but it cannot give a proper way for computing performance measures. To this end, in this study we developed simulation models using @RISK software and the expressions derived from max-plus algebra, and computed and compared blocking probability, waiting time (or response time) with respect to two blocking policies: communication(BBS: Blocking Before Service) and production(BAS: Blocking After Service). Moreover, an optimization problem which determines the minimum shared-buffer capacity satisfying a predetermined QoS(quality of service) is also considered.

• Journal of the Korean Society for Aeronautical & Space Sciences
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• v.50 no.3
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• pp.173-180
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• 2022

The operation and transportation environment for an unmanned aerial vehicle will be completely different from those for the conventional air and ground transportation. The requirement for a traffic management system for its safe operation has been emerging. Accordingly, investigation is being conducted to analyze the danger that unmanned aerial vehicle may encounter during the flight and to provide the countermeasure by the simulation. When the drones operate in an urban environment, they may be affected by the wind around the building. Thus it is essential to predict the influence of the gust and analyze the resulting risk. In this paper, a method for evaluating the safety for a flight mission under the gust is suggested. By using the precise 6-degree-of-freedom flight simulation that is capable of simulating the gust condition, possible deviation from the pre-planned flight path in terms of the attitude orientation will be predicted. A method of quantifying the probability of the flight mission failure will also be presented.

• Spatial Information Research
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• v.21 no.6
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• pp.43-55
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• 2013

Recently, the research to visualize and to reproduce evacuation situations such as terrorism, the disaster and fire indoor space has been come into the spotlight and designing a model for interior space and reliable analysis through safety evaluation of the life is required. Therefore, this paper aims to develop simulation model which is able to suggest evacuation route guidance and safety analysis by considering the major risk factor of fire in actual building. First of all, we designed 3D-based fire and evacuation model at a subway station building in Incheon and performed fire risk analysis through thermal parameters on the basis of interior materials supplied by Incheon Transit Corporation. In order to evaluate safety of a life, ASET (Available Safe Egress Time), which is the time for occupants to endure without damage, and RSET (Required Safe Egress Time) are calculated through evacuation simulation by Fire Dynamics Simulator. Finally, we can come to the conclusion that a more realistic safety assessment is carried out through indoor space model based on 3-dimension building information and simulation analysis applied by safety guideline for measurement of fire and evacuation risk.

• Journal of Korea Game Society
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• v.15 no.3
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• pp.41-50
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• 2015

This study attempted to identify differences in user experience such as spatial presence, social presence, flow, empathy, anxiety, and perceived risk between simulating characters of animation and of actual userimage. The playtesting method was conducted on 60 male smokers using 'Smoking Sims', a simulation game produced by The Center for Health Communication Studies. The results found that the simulation of actual image character is higher in the level of perceived risks for smoking, spatial presence, social presence, flow, and empathy than the simulation of animation character. The study shows that identification with a game character affects user experience and enhances the effectiveness of perceived risks as well. It emphasizes the importance of game design to implement identification in serious game like a smoking cessation simulation.