• Title/Summary/Keyword: Risk simulation

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Study of flood prevention alternative priorities using MCDM (Multi-Criteria Decision Making) (MCDM을 이용한 홍수방어대안 우선순위 정립에 관한 연구)

  • Lim, Donghwa;Jeong, Soonchan;Lee, Eunkyung;Yi, Jaeeung
    • Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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    • v.50 no.3
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    • pp.169-179
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    • 2017
  • Recently, due to global warming and climate change in Korea, local heavy storm occurs frequently. In this study, the risky areas for flooding in urban areas are analyzed for flood inundation based on two-dimensional urban flood runoff model (XP-SWMM) focusing on coastal high flood-risk urban areas. In addition, the MCDM (Multi-Criteria Decision Making) technique is utilized in order to establish the flood defense structural measures. The alternative flood reduction method are compared and the optimum flood defense measures are selected. A simulation model was used with three structural flood prevention measures (drainage pipe construction, water detention, flood pumping station). In order to decrease the flooding area, flood assessment criteria are suggested (flooded area, maximum inundation depth, damaged residential area, construction cost). Priorities of alternatives are determined by using compromise programming. As a result, the optimal flood defence alternative suggested for Janghang Zone 1 is flood pumping station and for Janghang Zone 2, 3 are drainage pipe construction.

Priority assessment and estimation of annual power generation for potential development site of hydroelectric dam in North Korea (북한지역 수력발전댐 개발가능지점에 대한 연간가능발생전력량 분석 및 개발 우선순위 평가)

  • Kwon, Minsung;Kim, Tae-Woong;Ahn, Jaehyun
    • Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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    • v.51 no.10
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    • pp.929-939
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    • 2018
  • In North Korea, hydropower which occupies about 63% of power generation is a major electric power source, and North Korea has many advantages in the geographical for developing hydroelectric power. In this study, Information on the basin and dam capacity for 33 potential development site of hydroelectric dam was analyzed using DEM, and potential annual power generation was estimated by applying results of long-term runoff simulation with MWSWAT model for recent 30-year. The potential annual power generation at 33 dam was estimated to be about 28% of the current hydroelectric power in North Korea. In addition, a priority of dam development in each province was assessed by estimating the scale of an industry and prospecting the population change in the future. And a priority for dam development within the province was estimated based on the dam capacity and the potential annual power generation. The priority of each province was ranked in order of Pyeongannamdo, Hamgyungnamdo, Hamgyungbukdo, Hwanghaebukdo, Pyeonganbukdo, Jagangdo, Ryanggangdo, Hwanghaenamdo, and Gangwondo. The results of this study can be used as an initial review data for advancing to hydropower development project in North Korea.

A Study on the Market Efficiency in a Pari-Mutuel Betting Market in Korea (경마 베팅시장의 효율성에 관한 연구)

  • Yu, Woong;Nahm, Jun-woo
    • Review of Culture and Economy
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    • v.20 no.2
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    • pp.149-171
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    • 2017
  • This paper presents empirical findings about the market inefficiency field in the korean horse track. We first use the place betting data instead of the win betting data inevitably depended on by past studies, and discuss the degree of the long shot anomaly and the bettor's risk attitude sequentially in the place betting market. The empirical result of betting simulations using the place winning function in this study reveals persistently higher returns than the expected payoff in korean racetrack betting market. The clear departures from perfect efficiency in horse-racing betting imply that much of the market information is insufficient and less accurate. This market asymmetry aggravates popular speculations exquisitely since people are attracted by the higher odds figures in the racetrack display although those are much uncertain in future. The findings suggest the more objective and credible information of winning possibilities such as the place winning function including the smart information of marginal odds needs to be available to the betting decision of the public, which contributes to reducing the speculative spirit in korean racetrack.

A Study on Smoke Extract Vents in a Subway with Screen door by Evacuation Performance Evaluation through RSET vs. ASET based on Computer Simulations (스크린도어가 설치된 지하철 승강장의 대피안전성 평가를 통한 제연환기구의 방재성능 개선방안 연구)

  • Park, Hyung-Joo;Lee, Young-Jae;Shin, Dong-Cheol;Baek, Dong-Ho
    • Journal of the Korean Society for Railway
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    • v.10 no.5
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    • pp.511-519
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    • 2007
  • This study provides comprehensive design improvements covering technical issues concerning life safety matter In case of fire train stoppage in the middle of a tunnel. Recently Government announced that most of subway platforms will have screen doors in 3 years. Therefore, many fire safety engineers considered that they may contribute on life safety on train stoppage in tunnel. Especially The screen door can protect platform from smoke along tunnel ceiling when fire train stopped in tunnel. The study showed that platform ventilation ducts and the a tunnel ventilation chimney in the middle of tunnel in exiting subway tunnel could not guarantee life safety ability in terms of RSET vs. ASET comparison. Furthermore during evacuation process many peoples may be threatened from the smoke spread from the origin of fire. Although only additional vertical route can be installed in tunnels In order to decrease RSET, it will costs high or no spaces remains in outside on the road. The study suggested that increase of ASET can be best solution without additional escape route, therefore alternative design methods suggested on the base of simulation results. Finally the study shows alternative methods can give good result in terms of evacuation performance evaluation. The evacuation performance evaluation helps the decision-maker to determine the preferred alternatives or upgrades to existing tunnel infrastructure and other measure to meet safety objectives. Finally, the study details the effectiveness of measures the can be taken to reduce the risk of incidents in subway tunnels.

Non-ablative Fractional Thulium Laser Irradiation Suppresses Early Tumor Growth

  • Yoo, Su Woong;Park, Hee-Jin;Oh, Gyungseok;Hwang, Soonjoo;Yun, Misun;Wang, Taejun;Seo, Young-Seok;Min, Jung-Joon;Kim, Ki Hean;Kim, Eung-Sam;Kim, Young L.;Chung, Euiheon
    • Current Optics and Photonics
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    • v.1 no.1
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    • pp.51-59
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    • 2017
  • In addition to its typical use for skin rejuvenation, fractional laser irradiation of early cancerous lesions may reduce the risk of tumor development as a byproduct of wound healing in the stroma after the controlled injury. While fractional ablative lasers are commonly used for cosmetic/aesthetic purposes (e.g., photorejuvenation, hair removal, and scar reduction), we propose a novel use of such laser treatments as a stromal treatment to delay tumorigenesis and suppress carcinogenesis. In this study, we found that non-ablative fractional laser (NAFL) irradiation may have a possible suppressive effect on early tumor growth in syngeneic mouse tumor models. We included two syngeneic mouse tumor models in irradiation groups and control groups. In the irradiation group, a thulium fiber based NAFL at 1927 nm was used to irradiate the skin area including the tumor injection region with 70 mJ/spot, while no laser irradiation was applied to the control group. Numerical simulation with the same experimental condition showed that thermal damage was confined only to the irradiation spots, sparing the adjacent tissue area. The irradiation groups of both tumor models showed smaller tumor volumes than the control group at an early tumor growth stage. We also detected elevated inflammatory cytokine levels a day after the NAFL irradiation. NAFL treatment of the stromal tissue could potentially be an alternative anticancer therapeutic modality for early tumorigenesis in a minimally invasive manner.

Estimation of Traffic Safety Improvement Effect of Forward Collision Warning (FCW) (전방충돌경보(FCW)의 교통안전 증진효과 추정)

  • Kim, Hyung-kyu;Lee, Soo-beom;Lee, Hye-rin;Hong, Su-jeong;Min, hye-Ryung
    • The Journal of The Korea Institute of Intelligent Transport Systems
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    • v.20 no.2
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    • pp.43-57
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    • 2021
  • The Forward Collision Warning, a representative technology of the Advanced Driver Assistance Systems, was selected as the target technology. The cognitive response time, deceleration, and impact were selected as the measures of effectiveness. And the amount of change with and without the Forward Collision Warning was measured. The experimental scenarios included a sudden stop event (1) of the vehicle in front of the driver and an event (2) in which the vehicle intervened in the next lane. All experiments were divided into day and night. As a result of the analysis, response time and the deceleration rate decreased when the forward collision warning system was installed. It was analyzed that the driver's risk situation could be detected quickly and the number of front-end collisions could be reduced as a result. Reflecting the driver's operating habits and diversifying the experimental scenarios will increase the installation effectiveness of ADAS and be used to estimate the effectiveness of other technologies.

Whiplash Injury Conditions of Rear-End Collisions at Low-Speed (저속 추돌사고에서 목 상해 조건에 대한 연구)

  • Kim, Myeongju;Yun, Ilsoo
    • The Journal of The Korea Institute of Intelligent Transport Systems
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    • v.18 no.2
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    • pp.58-76
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    • 2019
  • As the number of reported injuries has tended to increase over time, large hospitalization expenditure from excessive medical treatments and hospitalization, and insurance frauds associated with moral hazard in minor collisions have caused a global societal problem. Many occupants of rear-ended vehicles involved in rear-end collisions complain of whiplash injury, which is also known as neck injury, without any anatomical and radiological evidence. With only clinical symptoms, stating that a whiplash injury is a type of injury defined by the Abbreviated Injury Scale would be difficult. Therefore, this study focuses on minor rear-end collisions, where the rear-ender vehicle collides with the rear-ended vehicle at rest. The mathematics dynamic model is employed to simulate a total of 100 rear-end collision scenarios based on various weights and collision speeds and identify how the weights and speeds of both vehicles influence the risk of whiplash injury in occupants involved in minor rear-end collisions. The possibility of an injury is very high when the same-weight vehicles are involved in accidents at collision speeds of 15 km/h or higher. The possibilities are 36% and 84% with collision speeds of 15 km/h and 20 km/h, respectively, if weights are disregarded.

A Comparative Study on The Improvement of Logistics Support in Island Area using Unmanned Vehicles (무인 이동체를 활용한 도서 지역의 군수지원 향상 비교 연구)

  • Lee, Hak-Jae;Shin, Sang-Hee;Hwang, Seong-Guk;Kim, Moo-Young;Kwon, Ki-Sang
    • Journal of the Korea Academia-Industrial cooperation Society
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    • v.20 no.9
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    • pp.315-322
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    • 2019
  • Recently, the Marine Corps of South Korea started to introduce and possess its own weapon systems. On the other hand, the level of maintenance is lower than that of other military forces, and depending on the other military forces, maintenance occurs intermittently when transporting weapons systems. In this case, unmanned vehicles can be used to reduce the cost, manpower, time, and risk of carrying weapons systems. In addition, the transport of weapon systems between islands or between an island and inland of the Marine Corps using unmanned vehicles is easier in terms of the maintenance level and surrounding environment than other military forces. This paper compares the improvement of operational availability and cost of spare parts in terms of logistics support when using unmanned vehicles in the West Sea area, and quantitatively show the efficiency and usability of the weapon system. To compare operational availability and costs for spare parts, a simulation was performed based on the OO weapons system between islands or between an island and inland, and the results were compared and analyzed.

Seismic Performance Evaluation of Multi-Story Piping Systems using Triple Friction Pendulum Bearing (지진격리장치를 적용한 복층구조파이핑 시스템의 내진성능평가)

  • Ryu, Yonghee;Ju, Buseog;Son, Hoyoung
    • Journal of the Society of Disaster Information
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    • v.14 no.4
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    • pp.450-457
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    • 2018
  • Purpose: The evaluation of seismic performance of critical structures has been emerging a key issue in Korea, since a magnitude 5.8 earthquake, the worst in Koran history, struck Gyeongju, southern area in Korea on september 12th, 2016. In particular, the catastrophic failure of nonstructural components such as sprinkler piping systems can cause significant economic loss or loss of life during and after an earthquake. The nonstructural components can be more fragile than structural components in seismic behavior. Method: This study presents the seismic performance evaluation of fire protection piping system, using coupled building-piping system installed with Triple Friction Pendulum Bearings (TPBs). Kobe (Japan), Kocaeli (Turkey), and GyeongJu (Korea) were selected to consider the uncertainty of ground motions in this study. Result: In the simulation results, it was observed that the reduction of maximum displacements of the piping system with the TPBs' system was significant: Kobe, Kocaeli, and Gyeongju cases were 49%, 14.4% and 21.5%, respectively. Conclusion: Therefore, using seismically isolated system in a building-piping system can be more effective to reduce the seismic risk than a normally installed building-piping systems without TPBs in strong earthquakes.

Method for evaluating the safety performance and protection ability of the mobile steel protective wall during the high-explosive ammunition test (고폭탄 탄약시험 간 이동형 강재 방호벽의 안전성능 판단 및 유효 방호력 평가 방법)

  • Jeon, In-Beom
    • Journal of the Korea Academia-Industrial cooperation Society
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    • v.22 no.6
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    • pp.573-582
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    • 2021
  • In this study, a series of processes for evaluating the effective protection against barriers that should be equipped in institutions that perform reliability tests on high-risk ammunition, such as high-explosive ammunition, were introduced. The impact that high-explosive bombs can have on personnel includes damage to the eardrum and lungs caused by explosion overpressure and penetrating wounds that can be received by fragments generated simultaneously with the explosion. Therefore, a high-explosive with COMP B explosives as its contents were set up, and an explosion protection theory investigation to calculate the degree of damage, numerical calculations and simulations were performed to verify the protection power. A numerical calculation revealed the maximum explosion overpressure on the protective wall when the high-explosive exploded and the penetration force of the fragment against a 50 mm-thick protective wall to be 77.74 kPa and 41.34 mm, respectively. In the simulation verification using AUTODYN, the maximum explosion overpressures affecting the firewall and personnel were 56.68 kPa and 18.175 kPa, respectively, and the penetration of fragments was 35.56 mm. This figure is lower than the human damage limit, and it was judged that the protective power of the barrier would be effective.