• Title/Summary/Keyword: Risk simulation

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Estimation of In-plant Source Term Release Behaviors from Fukushima Daiichi Reactor Cores by Forward Method and Comparison with Reverse Method

  • Kim, Tae-Woon;Rhee, Bo-Wook;Song, Jin-Ho;Kim, Sung-Il;Ha, Kwang-Soon
    • Journal of Radiation Protection and Research
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    • v.42 no.2
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    • pp.114-129
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    • 2017
  • Background: The purpose of this paper is to confirm the event timings and the magnitude of fission product aerosol release from the Fukushima accident. Over a few hundreds of technical papers have been published on the environmental impact of Fukushima Daiichi accident since the accident occurred on March 11, 2011. However, most of the research used reverse or inverse method based on the monitoring of activities in the remote places and only few papers attempted to estimate the release of fission products from individual reactor core or from individual spent fuel pool. Severe accident analysis code can be used to estimate the radioactive release from which reactor core and from which radionuclide the peaks in monitoring points can be generated. Materials and Methods: The basic material used for this study are the initial core inventory obtained from the report JAEA-Data/Code 2012-018 and the given accident scenarios provided by Japanese Government or Tokyo Electric Power Company (TEPCO) in official reports. In this research a forward method using severe accident progression code is used as it might be useful for justifying the results of reverse or inverse method or vice versa. Results and Discussion: The release timing and amounts to the environment are estimated for volatile radioactive fission products such as noble gases, cesium, iodine, and tellurium up to 184 hours (about 7.7 days) after earthquake occurs. The in-plant fission product behaviors and release characteristics to environment are estimated using the severe accident progression analysis code, MELCOR, for Fukushima Daiichi accident. These results are compared with other research results which are summarized in UNSCEAR 2013 Report and other technical papers. Also it may provide the physically based arguments for justifying or suspecting the rationale for the scenarios provided in open literature. Conclusion: The estimated results by MELCOR code simulation of this study indicate that the release amount of volatile fission products to environment from Units 1, 2, and 3 cores is well within the range estimated by the reverse or inverse method, which are summarized in UNSCEAR 2013 report. But this does not necessarily mean that these two approaches are consistent.

Bargaining Game using Artificial agent based on Evolution Computation (진화계산 기반 인공에이전트를 이용한 교섭게임)

  • Seong, Myoung-Ho;Lee, Sang-Yong
    • Journal of Digital Convergence
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    • v.14 no.8
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    • pp.293-303
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    • 2016
  • Analysis of bargaining games utilizing evolutionary computation in recent years has dealt with important issues in the field of game theory. In this paper, we investigated interaction and coevolution process among heterogeneous artificial agents using evolutionary computation in the bargaining game. We present three kinds of evolving-strategic agents participating in the bargaining games; genetic algorithms (GA), particle swarm optimization (PSO) and differential evolution (DE). The co-evolutionary processes among three kinds of artificial agents which are GA-agent, PSO-agent, and DE-agent are tested to observe which EC-agent shows the best performance in the bargaining game. The simulation results show that a PSO-agent is better than a GA-agent and a DE-agent, and that a GA-agent is better than a DE-agent with respect to co-evolution in bargaining game. In order to understand why a PSO-agent is the best among three kinds of artificial agents in the bargaining game, we observed the strategies of artificial agents after completion of game. The results indicated that the PSO-agent evolves in direction of the strategy to gain as much as possible at the risk of gaining no property upon failure of the transaction, while the GA-agent and the DE-agent evolve in direction of the strategy to accomplish the transaction regardless of the quantity.

Design and Implementation of Response type of Flickering Green Signal System using Beacon Message (비콘메세지를 이용한 반응형 녹색점멸 신호시스템 설계 및 구현)

  • An, Hyo-In;Mun, Hyung-Jin;Kim, Chang-Geun
    • Journal of Digital Convergence
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    • v.14 no.11
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    • pp.241-247
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    • 2016
  • As a domestic traffic control signal system, either the system with which a traffic signal turns into green at regular intervals or the system with which an amber or a red signal flickers on local roads without heavy traffic at midnight has been utilized. However, when the former system is used for roads with light traffic at midnight, delays and congestion can be incurred. Besides, in case of the latter signal system, the risk of vehicle crash is high. This study proposes a response type of flickering green signal system that rearranges signal system after analyzing beacon messages including sensor data. The proposed system, on a trunk road or a branch road at midnight, makes the signal keep flickering in green; When a vehicle enters the range of RSE, the transfer coverage, it transmits beacon messages regularly and Agent System analyzes the messages and alters the signal. It is a system by which vehicles move following the altered signal system, which will not only ensure smooth flow but also prevent vehicles from crashing on a road with light traffic. As a result of a simulation, traffic throughput and the average waiting time displayed 10 to 30 percent better improvement than existing signal systems, in terms of performance.

Daily Water Intake and Exposure Parameters Related to the Multi-route Exposure in Drinking Water (음용수의 섭취량 및 다경로 노출평가를 위한 노출변수 조사연구)

  • Chung, Yong;Shin, Dong-Chun;Park, Seong-Eun;Choi, Shi-Nai;Park, Seon-Mee
    • Environmental Analysis Health and Toxicology
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    • v.11 no.1_2
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    • pp.19-29
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    • 1996
  • Human exposure to volatile compounds in tap water can occur from inhalation and dermal absorption as well as direct ingestion. The relative contribution to total human exposure from these pathways has been considered to be important especially for VOC's (volatile organic compounds). In an attempt to reduce the uncertainty of the risk assessment, it has been suggested that the exposure assessment process could be significantly improved by adopting Monte-Carlo simulation. However, there is no actual data in Korea for each exposure parameter to determine the level of exposure, and the distributional pattern. Therefore, we surveyed water use patterns and behavior related to multi-route exposure to VOC's in household tap water in Korea, and compared these values to the those in western countries. In the first survey, we calculated daily water intake using data from a sample of 1322 persons of several cities in Korea. In the second survey, we obtained questionnaire data on exposure time for showering, bathing and household activities, and tap water intake from 851households in Korea. In the last survey, we measured the exposure parameters (exposure time, water use rate etc.) related to showers, baths, toilets, dish washing, washing and cooking, and tap water intake was surveyed. Also, the subjects were measured their body weight, height and tidal volume, etc. A diary, a flow meter and a measuring cup were used to measure these values as precisely as possible. Average daily water intake was ranged 0.79-1.71 L/day for adults in three surveys. Tap water intake measured by log-sheet during one week in third survey was 1.26 (average), 1.98 L/day (90 percentlie), respectively. These results were comparable with results from EPA (1.4, 2L/day). The average amount of water used by housewives in the third survey was 515.0 $\pm$ 564.6L/day. In usual activity, the amount of water used in the bathroom, the laundry and the kitchen was 140.0 $\pm$ 538.9, 148.0 $\pm$ 174.5, 229.3 $\pm$ 205.4 L/day, respectively. Exposure parameters such as water intake rate, exposure duration, body weight, inhalation rates in surveyed data of Korean people differed from those published from western countries. This could be attributed to variations in lifestyle, dietary habits and physiological characteristics.

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A Study on the Safety Improvement of Child Protected Zone (어린이 보호구역의 안전성 향상에 관한 연구)

  • Ju, Seokjun;Jeong, Myeongjin;Kwak, Cheol;Song, Taeseung;Cha, Juhee
    • The Journal of the Convergence on Culture Technology
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    • v.6 no.4
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    • pp.139-147
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    • 2020
  • The number of deaths from child traffic accidents in Korea is currently higher than the average figure of OECD members, and attention needs to be paid to reduce the school zone accident rate. According to the TAAS statistics of the Traffic Accident Analysis System, the number of deaths from traffic accidents in children (under 12 years of age) in Korea has been steadily decreasing recently, but the number of accidents and injuries has been continuously increasing and decreasing. With the number of accidents and injuries of children in Korea continuing to increase and decrease, the number of traffic accidents, deaths, and injuries of children in the school zone (under 12 years of age) has also been on the rise since 2019. Therefore, we were different from the preceding study (Study on Improvement through School Zone Accident Risk Survey, Study on Improvement of Children's Traffic Safety Facilities through Simulation Program). In order to prevent traffic accidents among school zones, which have the highest accident rate among children, a survey was conducted on traffic safety facilities and safety awareness of drivers. After that, we will analyze the problems and present measures for improving traffic safety in the school zone and improving drivers' safety awareness.

An Evaluation Method of Water Supply Reliability for a Dam by Firm Yield Analysis (보장 공급량 분석에 의한 댐의 물 공급 안전도 평가기법 연구)

  • Lee, Sang-Ho;Kang, Tae-Uk
    • Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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    • v.39 no.5 s.166
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    • pp.467-478
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    • 2006
  • Water supply reliability for a dam is defined with a concept of probabilistic reliability. An evaluation procedure of the water supply reliability is shown with an analysis of long term firm yield reliability. The water supply reliabilities of Soyanggang Dam and Chungju Dam were evaluated. To evaluate the water supply reliability, forty one sets of monthly runoff series were generated by SAMS-2000. HEC-5 model was applied to the reservoir simulation to compute the firm yield from a monthly data of time series. The water supply reliability of the firm yield from the design runoff data of Soyanggang Dam is evaluated by 80.5 % for a planning period of 50 years. The water supply reliability of the firm yield from the historic runoff after the dam construction is evaluated by 53.7 %. The firm yield from the design runoff is 1.491 billion $m^3$/yr and the firm yield from the historic runoff is 1.585 billion $m^3$/yr. If the target draft Is 1.585 billion $m^3$/yr, additional water of 0.094 billion $m^3$ could be supplied every year with its risk. From the similar procedures, the firm yield from the design runoff of Chungju Dam is evaluated 3.377 billion $m^3$/yr and the firm yield from the historic runoff is 2.960 billion $m^3$/yr. If the target draft is 3.377 billion $m^3$/yr, water supply insufficiency occurs for all the sets of time series generated. It may result from overestimation of the spring runoff used for design. The procedure shown can be a more objective method to evaluate water supply reliability of a dam.

Inundation Analysis in Urban Area Considering of Head Loss Coefficients at Surcharged Manholes (과부하 맨홀의 손실계수를 고려한 도시지역 침수해석)

  • Lee, Won;Kim, Jung Soo;Yoon, Sei Eui
    • Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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    • v.48 no.2
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    • pp.127-136
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    • 2015
  • In general, XP-SWMM regards manholes as nodes, so it can not consider local head loss in surcharged manhole depending on shape and size of the manhole. That might be a reason why XP-SWMM underestimates inundated-area compared with reality. Therefore, it is necessary to study how we put the local head loss in surcharged manhole in order to simulate storm drain system with XP-SWMM. In this study, average head loss coefficients at circular and square manhole were estimated as 0.61 and 0.68 respectively through hydraulic experiments with various discharges. The estimated average head loss coefficients were put into XP-SWMM as inflow and outflow energy loss of nodes to simulate inundation area of Gunja basin. Simulated results show that not only overflow discharge amount but inundated-area increased considering the head loss coefficients. Also, inundation area with considering head loss coefficients was matched as much as 58% on real inundation area. That was more than simulated results without considering head loss coefficients as much as 18 %. Considering energy loss in surcharged manholes increases an accuracy of simulation. Therefore, the averaged head loss coefficients of this study could be used to simulate storm drain system. It was expected that the study results will be utilized as basic data for establishing the identification of the inundation risk area.

An extension of multifactor dimensionality reduction method for detecting gene-gene interactions with the survival time (생존시간과 연관된 유전자 간의 교호작용에 관한 다중차원축소방법의 확장)

  • Oh, Jin Seok;Lee, Seung Yeoun
    • Journal of the Korean Data and Information Science Society
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    • v.25 no.5
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    • pp.1057-1067
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    • 2014
  • Many genetic variants have been identified to be associated with complex diseases such as hypertension, diabetes and cancers throughout genome-wide association studies (GWAS). However, there still exist a serious missing heritability problem since the proportion explained by genetic variants from GWAS is very weak less than 10~15%. Gene-gene interaction study may be helpful to explain the missing heritability because most of complex disease mechanisms are involved with more than one single SNP, which include multiple SNPs or gene-gene interactions. This paper focuses on gene-gene interactions with the survival phenotype by extending the multifactor dimensionality reduction (MDR) method to the accelerated failure time (AFT) model. The standardized residual from AFT model is used as a residual score for classifying multiple geno-types into high and low risk groups and algorithm of MDR is implemented. We call this method AFT-MDR and compares the power of AFT-MDR with those of Surv-MDR and Cox-MDR in simulation studies. Also a real data for leukemia Korean patients is analyzed. It was found that the power of AFT-MDR is greater than that of Surv-MDR and is comparable with that of Cox-MDR, but is very sensitive to the censoring fraction.

Modeling for the fate of Organic Chemicals in a Multi-media Environment Using MUSEM (다매체 환경 모델 MUSEM을 이용한 유해화학물질의 환경거동예측 모델링)

  • Roh, Kyong-Joon;Kim, Dong-Myung
    • Journal of the Korean Society for Marine Environment & Energy
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    • v.10 no.4
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    • pp.201-210
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    • 2007
  • Pollution by chemical substances such as POPs, EDCs and PBTs in the ecosystem has become more complex and varied, increasing the possibility of irreversible damage to human health or the ecosystem. It is necessary to have a exposure assessment in a multi-media environment for various chemical substances is required for efficient management. This study applied MUSEM(Multi-media Simplebox-systems Environmental Model), a multimedia environmental model that can simultaneously evaluate the possibility of exposure of hundreds of chemical substances in order to efficiently manage chemical substances that can have negative impact on human health or ecological environment through environmental contamination. MUSEM executed the modeling for Japan by setting all 47 prefectures of japan as the regional area for 62 chemical substances and the rest of the territory of japan, excluding regional area, as the continental area and made the estimation of concentration among environment media in each administrative area and made the sensitivity analysis on Tokyo area. The results of simulation for chemical distribution showed that most of the target chemicals located in water region. The result of sensitivity analysis for octanol-water partition rate showed that the concentration change of soil in urban/industrial area and sediment in freshwater was high. In the case of sensitivity analysis for degradation rate showed that the concentration change of freshwater, soil in urban/industrial area, and sediment in freshwater was high.

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Analysis of Influence for Breach Flow According to Asymmetry of Breach Cross-section (제방붕괴 형상의 비대칭성에 따른 붕괴흐름의 영향 분석)

  • Kim, Sooyoung;Choi, Seo-hye;Lee, Seung Oh
    • Journal of the Korea Academia-Industrial cooperation Society
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    • v.17 no.5
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    • pp.557-565
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    • 2016
  • The risk of collapse in hydraulic structures has become more elevated, due to the increased probability and scale of flooding caused by global warming and the resulting abnormal climatic conditions. When a levee, a typical hydraulic structure, breaks, an enormous breach flow pours into the floodplain and much flood damage then occurs. It is important to accurately calculate the breach discharge in order to predict this damage. In this study, the variation of the breach discharge with the asymmetry in the cross-section of the levee breach was analyzed. Through hydraulic experiments, the cross-section of the breach was analyzed during the collapse using the BASD (Bilateral ASymmetry Degree), which was developed to measure the degree of asymmetry. The relationship of the breach discharge was identified using the BASD. Additionally, the variation of the breach flow measured by the BASD was investigated through a 3-D numerical analysis under the same flow conditions as those in the experiment. It was found that the assumption of a rectangular breach cross-section, which is generally used for the estimation of the inundation area, can cause the breach discharge to be overestimated. According to the BASD, the breach flow is decreased by the interference effect in the breach section of the levee. If the breach flow is calculated while considering the BASD in the numerical analysis of the flooding, it is expected that the predicted inundation area can be estimated accurately.