• Title/Summary/Keyword: Risk cost

Search Result 1,558, Processing Time 0.037 seconds

Cost-benefit Analysis of a Farmstead-specific Early Warning Service for Agrometeorological Disaster Risk Management (농업기상재해 위험 관리를 위한 농장별 조기경보서비스의 비용편익 분석)

  • Shim, Kyo-Moon;Jeong, Hak-Kyun;Lim, Young-Ah;Shin, Yong-Soon;Kim, Yong-Seok;Choi, In-tae;Jung, Myung-Pyo;Kim, Hojung
    • Korean Journal of Agricultural and Forest Meteorology
    • /
    • v.19 no.3
    • /
    • pp.195-202
    • /
    • 2017
  • This study aims to suggest the basics for the implementation of the farmstead-specific early warning system (FEWS) for weather risk management nationwide. A survey by questionnaire was conducted to examine farmer's response, and a cost-benefit analysis was made to examine the effect of the FEWS on the economy. The farmers who volunteered to participate in this survey responded that they were generally satisfied with the FEWS, and that they used it well for farming. Willingness to pay (WTP) for the early warning service was estimated to be 8,833 KRW per month by survey respondents. If the early warning service is extended to nationwide and 50% of farmers use it for six months, then the ratio of benefit to cost will be 2.2, indicating that nationwide expansion of the FEWS is very feasible.

The Tests of Free Cash Flows Hypothesis about Stock Repurchase (자사주매입에 관한 잉여현금흐름가설 검정)

  • Shin, Min-Shik;Lee, Jung-Suk
    • The Korean Journal of Financial Management
    • /
    • v.24 no.1
    • /
    • pp.59-83
    • /
    • 2007
  • In this paper, we test empirically free cash flows hypothesis about stock repurchase. The main results of this study can be summarized as follows. First, repurchasing firms do not experience a growth in profitability relative to their peer firms. Second, repurchasing firms experience a contraction in their investment opportunity, and so capital expenditures and cash reserves decline after the repurchase. Third, repurchasing firms experience a decline in systematic risk and investments and in their cost of capital. Fourth, the reduction in profitability and cost of capital are sources of the positive market reaction to the repurchase announcement. And the market reaction to stock repurchase announcements is stronger among those firms that are more likely to overinvest. Conclusively, these results support free cash flows hypothesis. When firms experience a decline in profitability, capital expenditures and cash reserves, systematic risk and cost of capital, they decide to repurchase stocks to reduce free cash flows.

  • PDF

Outcomes Analysis for Western Medicine and Korean Medicine Using the Propensity Score Matching in Allergic Rhinitis: Data from the Health Insurance Review and Assessment Service (알레르기 비염에서 성향 점수 매칭을 이용한 의과·한의과 간 성과 분석: 건강보험심사평가원 청구 자료 이용)

  • Kang, Chae-Yeong;Kim, Hui-Jun;Kim, Jeong-Hun;Hwang, Jin-Seub;Lee, Dong-Hyo
    • The Journal of Korean Medicine Ophthalmology and Otolaryngology and Dermatology
    • /
    • v.34 no.2
    • /
    • pp.53-69
    • /
    • 2021
  • Objectives : The purpose of this study is to analyze the effects of treatment between Western medicine and Korean medicine on Allergic rhinitis patients using national population-based claim data from the Health Insurance Review and Assessment Service. Methods : The subjects of the study were 30,024 patients in the Korean medicine group and 30,024 in the Western medicine group who were diagnosed with Allergic rhinitis from September 1, 2018 to December 31, 2018. Propensity score analysis was used for matching age, sex, etc. at a ratio of 1:1. Cox regression and subgroup analysis were used to estimate the adjusted hazard ratio of recurrence, Asthma, and Atopic dermatitis in Korean medicine group and Western medicine group. In addition, the total treatment period, total treatment cost, and average cost per day of visit were compared and analyzed. Results : Compared to Korean medicine, Western medicine had a significantly higher risk of recurrence at 1.701 times, Asthma occurrence risk at 1.609 times and Atopic dermatitis occurrence risk at 1.098 times. Compared to Western medicine, the total treatment period of Korean medicine was 14.27 days longer, the total treatment cost was 53,591 won more, and the average cost per day was 7,539 won more. Conclusions : This study is a retrospective cohort study using the propensity score matching in Korea to compare the outcomes of Allergic rhinitis between Western medicine and Korean medicine. Further research is needed by considering patients characteristics, and linking with additional data.

Building Information Model (BIM) and Geotechnical Baseline Report (GBR) for improving Project Management Tools of Underground Works

  • Muhammad Tajammal KHAN;Masahide HORITA
    • International conference on construction engineering and project management
    • /
    • 2024.07a
    • /
    • pp.532-539
    • /
    • 2024
  • Among various risk factors that need managing in large scale complex infrastructure projects, geotechnical risk is one of the most prominent factor particularly for underground works like tunnels. Uncertainties in soil conditions cannot be avoided 100% even after extensive geotechnical investigations. Therefore, underground works face large delays and cost overrun especially for hydropower projects in developing countries. Its uncertainty ex ante and ex post directly cause increased transaction cost in terms of contract administration, claims, variation orders and disputes. It also reduces trust and increases opportunistic behaviors due to asymmetric information between the parties. Subsequently, parties are spending more time on claim management rather than handling the project execution. Traditional project management tools are becoming less effective under these conditions. FIDIC published the Conditions of Contract for Underground Works wherein a Geotechnical Baseline Report (GBR) sets out the allocation of risks between the parties for subsurface physical conditions determining the foreseeable and unforeseeable conditions. At the same time, Building Information Modeling (BIM) is being adopted for efficient design, quality control and cost management. In this study, soil classification along the tunnel alignment for on-going hydropower projects is modelled in the virtual environment of Autodesk Revit (2024). The actual soil encountered along the tunnel during construction stage can be compared with the baseline conditions. In addition, BIM serves as a central source providing symmetric information to the Parties to develop an environment of trust and coordination. It is anticipated that these tools will improve the project management skills for underground works through minimizing the opportunistic behavior and transaction cost.

EVALUATING CRITICAL SUCCESS FACTORS FOR ACCURATE FIRST COST ESTIMATES OF LARGE-SCALE CONSTRUCTION PROJECTS

  • Jin-Lee Kim;Ok-Kyue Kim
    • International conference on construction engineering and project management
    • /
    • 2009.05a
    • /
    • pp.354-360
    • /
    • 2009
  • The demands for large-scale construction projects such as Mega-projects are largely increasing due to the rapid growth of increasing populations as well as the need to replace existing buildings and infrastructure. Increasing costs of materials, supplies, and labors require the first cost estimates at the preliminary planning stage to be as accurate as possible. This paper presents the results obtained from the survey on evaluating nine critical success factors that influence the accurate first cost estimates for large-scale projects from practical experiences. It then examines the current cost structures of construction companies for large-scale projects, followed by the causes for cost and schedule overrun. Twenty completed surveys were collected and the Analytic Hierarchy Process was applied to analyze the data. The results indicate that technology issues, the contract type, and social and environmental impacts are the significant leading factors for accurate first cost estimates of large-scale construction projects.

  • PDF

Improving a Risk-Averse Price-Fluctuating Inventory Model by Reallocating Initial Inventories (구매가격 변동 하에서 초기재고 재분배를 통한 위험회피 재고모형의 효율화)

  • Park, Chan-Kyoo
    • Journal of the Korean Operations Research and Management Science Society
    • /
    • v.38 no.2
    • /
    • pp.95-115
    • /
    • 2013
  • In traditional inventory models, purchase prices of raw materials are assumed to be fixed and have no effect on the optimal choice of inventory policies. However, when purchase prices fluctuate continuously over time, inventory costs are heavily affected by purchasing prices. Risk-averse inventory model decides order quantity and ordering time by considering not just purchase prices but also the risk from the discrepancy between estimated prices and realized prices. In this paper, we propose a myopic inventory policy which incorporates price risk into deciding ordering time and quantities. While the existing risk-averse model has no mechanism to reallocate inventories already purchased for a specific future period, the revised one reallocates initial inventories of each period to other future periods so that it can avoid purchasing raw materials at high prices. Experimental results demonstrate that the revised model outperforms the existing one in respect of total cost and variability.

Establishment of Risk Database and Development of Risk Classification System for NATM Tunnel (NATM 터널 공정리스크 데이터베이스 구축 및 리스크 분류체계 개발)

  • Kim, Hyunbee;Karunarathne, Batagalle Vinuri;Kim, ByungSoo
    • Korean Journal of Construction Engineering and Management
    • /
    • v.25 no.1
    • /
    • pp.32-41
    • /
    • 2024
  • In the construction industry, not only safety accidents, but also various complex risks such as construction delays, cost increases, and environmental pollution occur, and management technologies are needed to solve them. Among them, process risk management, which directly affects the project, lacks related information compared to its importance. This study tried to develop a MATM tunnel process risk classification system to solve the difficulty of risk information retrieval due to the use of different classification systems for each project. Risk collection used existing literature review and experience mining techniques, and DB construction utilized the concept of natural language processing. For the structure of the classification system, the existing WBS structure was adopted in consideration of compatibility of data, and an RBS linked to the work species of the WBS was established. As a result of the research, a risk classification system was completed that easily identifies risks by work type and intuitively reveals risk characteristics and risk factors linked to risks. As a result of verifying the usability of the established classification system, it was found that the classification system was effective as risks and risk factors for each work type were easily identified by user input of keywords. Through this study, it is expected to contribute to preventing an increase in cost and construction period by identifying risks according to work types in advance when planning and designing NATM tunnels and establishing countermeasures suitable for those factors.

A Study on The Risk on the Non-payment of Monthly Rent of Seoul Office Market in the Framework of Asymmetric Information (정보비대칭 관점에서 서울 오피스 시장의 월세미납리스크에 관한 연구)

  • Kim, Sung-Nam;Choi, Young-Sang;Koh, Sung-Soo
    • The Journal of the Korea Contents Association
    • /
    • v.15 no.7
    • /
    • pp.531-543
    • /
    • 2015
  • Benjamin, Lusht, and Shilling(1998) suggested that the level of deposit can be used as a tool to resolve the problem of adverse selection by the leaseholder under the circumstance of information asymmetry. In this respect, this research aims to verify how the level of deposit and monthly rent mitigate the problem of information asymmetry existing in the office market in Seoul. So far, the analysis of the office market in Seoul has been difficult due to the fixed rate of deposit and monthly rent. This research attempts to adopt the concept of occupancy cost, a global standard indicator that would replace the default risk of monthly payment for analyzing the market. As a result of a series of empirical analysis, the lessors tend to add about 9 percent of risk premium to the occupancy cost to hedge against the default risk of monthly payment. It allows for estimating at what extent one should reflect the leaseholder's default risk of monthly payment for operating deposit and monthly rent in the office building lease market.

Decision-making of alternative pylon shapes of a benchmark cable-stayed bridge using seismic risk assessment

  • Akhoondzade-Noghabi, Vahid;Bargi, Khosrow
    • Earthquakes and Structures
    • /
    • v.11 no.4
    • /
    • pp.583-607
    • /
    • 2016
  • One of the main applications of seismic risk assessment is that an specific design could be selected for a bridge from different alternatives by considering damage losses alongside primary construction costs. Therefore, in this paper, the focus is on selecting the shape of pylon, which is a changeable component in the design of a cable-stayed bridge, as a double criterion decision-making problem. Different shapes of pylons include H, A, Y, and diamond shape, and the two criterion are construction costs and probable earthquake losses. In this research, decision-making is performed by using developed seismic risk assessment process as a powerful method. Considering the existing uncertainties in seismic risk assessment process, the combined incremental dynamic analysis (IDA) and uniform design (UD) based fragility assessment method is proposed, in which the UD method is utilized to provide the logical capacity models of the structure, and the IDA method is employed to give the probabilistic seismic demand model of structure. Using the aforementioned models and by defining damage states, the fragility curves of the bridge system are obtained for the different pylon shapes usage. Finally, by combining the fragility curves with damage losses and implementing the proposed cost-loss-benefit (CLB) method, the seismic risk assessment process is developed with financial-comparative approach. Thus, the optimal shape of the pylon can be determined using double criterion decision-making. The final results of decision-making study indicate that the optimal pylon shapes for the studied span of cable-stayed bridge are, respectively, H shape, diamond shape, Y shape, and A shape.