• Title/Summary/Keyword: Risk calculation

Search Result 364, Processing Time 0.025 seconds

A Study on the Calculation and Application of the Risk in the Hydrogen Stations (수소충전소의 위험도 산출 및 적용에 대한 고찰)

  • Seo, Doo-Hyoun;Kim, Tae-Hun;Rhi, Kwang-Won
    • Journal of the Korean Institute of Gas
    • /
    • v.24 no.5
    • /
    • pp.1-9
    • /
    • 2020
  • In Korea, hydrogen stations are being promoted and commercialized. However, the risk assessment for the hydrogen station is not clear. In particular, it is not clear how to calculate the risk and acceptable criteria for a hydrogen station. Therefore, in this study, three hydrogen stations being installed were selected and general risks were calculated and the social risk of each hydrogen station was calculated. In general, the method of risk assessment is individual/social risk. This is an individual's death rate considering the frequency of accidents, And the likelihood of death according to the number of nearby residents. These can be used to calculate the level of risk for a hydrogen station. However, this method of calculate risks is the criteria for judging whether it is acceptable are unclear. For this reason, this study investigated the allowable standards for foreign risks and considered that they were acceptable by applying the risks of selected domestic hydrogen stations.

A Study on the Development of Regional Risk Mapping Program for Marine Oil Spills (해역별 기름유출사고 위험도 매핑 프로그램 개발에 관한 연구)

  • Moon, Jung-Hwan;Yun, Jong-Hwui
    • Journal of the Korean Society of Marine Environment & Safety
    • /
    • v.22 no.5
    • /
    • pp.423-429
    • /
    • 2016
  • A study was conducted to analyze the oil spill dynamic state using system dynamics method, and to developed regional risk program based on oil spill history for better judgement of the situation at the early stage of oil spill. Results were obtained as follows: Firstly, various variables were calculated by a score based on raw data of oil spill history in Korea. Regional oil spill risk was also calculated in a quantitative way. Secondly, calculated regional oil spill risk was analyzed and programmed with a help of smart-device for better use. Thirdly, comparison of oil spill risk between regions became possible and regional oil spill risk program proved to be useful in prompt decision under urgent situation in response to oil spill at sea. Convenient and quick oil spill risk without special restrictions have been able to determine. and it can help in anticipative preparation (strategy) for oil spills.

A Study on Comparison of Risk Estimates Among Various Exposure Scenario of Several Volatile Organic Compounds in Tap Water (음용수중 휘발성 유기오염물질의 노출경로에 따른 위해도 추정치 비교연구)

  • Chung, Yong;Shin, Dong-Chun;Kim, Jong-Man;Yang, Ji-Yeon;Park, Seong-Eun
    • Environmental Analysis Health and Toxicology
    • /
    • v.10 no.1_2
    • /
    • pp.21-35
    • /
    • 1995
  • Risk assessment processes, which include processes for the estimation of human cancer potency using animal bioassay data and calculation of human exposure, entail uncertainties. In the exposure assessment process, exposure scenarios with various assumptions could affect the exposure amount and excess cancer risk. We compared risk estimates among various exposure scenarios of vinyl chloride, trichloroethylene and tetrachloroethylene in tap water. The contaminant concentrations were analyzed from tap water samples in Seoul from 1993 to 1994. The oral and inhalation cancer potencies of the contaminants were estimated using multistage, Weibull, lognormal, and Mantel-Bryan model in TOX-RISK computer software. In the first case, human excess cancer risk was estimated by the US EPA method used to set the MCL(maximum contaminant level). In the second and third case, the risk was estimated for multi-route exposure with and without adopting Monte-Carlo simulation, respectively. In the second case, exposure input parameters and cancer potencies used probability distributions, and in the third case, those values used point estimates(mean, and maximum or 95% upper-bound value). As a result, while the excess cancer risk estimated by US EPA method considering only direct ingestion tended to be underestimated, the risk which was estimated by considering multi-route exposure without Monte-Carlo simulation and then using the maximum or 95% upper-bound value as input parameters tended to be overestimated. In risk assessment for volatile organic compounds, considering multi-route exposure with adopting Monte-Carlo analysis seems to provide the most reasonable estimations.

  • PDF

A Study on the Development of Calculation Tables and Formulas for Determining Separation Distance in Case of Cl2・HF Tank-lorry Leakage (염소・불화수소 탱크로리 누출사고 시 이격거리 산정을 위한 산정표 및 산정식 개발 연구)

  • Jeon, Byeong-Han;Kim, Hyun-Sub;Lim, Sang-Min;Lee, Joo-Chan;Lee, Gang-San
    • Journal of the Korea Academia-Industrial cooperation Society
    • /
    • v.22 no.4
    • /
    • pp.212-219
    • /
    • 2021
  • Chemical accidents caused by transport vehicles account for 20% of all chemical accidents every year, but there are difficulties in the accident-response process due to repeated situations where the impact assessment information is unknown. In this study, we developed a calculation table and formula for predicting the range of damage for chlorine and hydrogen fluoride, which have a high domestic usage, high risk of accidents, and high accident frequency in the last 7 years. The calculation table is based on the leakage rate, wind speed, and temperature, and the calculation formula was derived using R software for special situations where it is difficult to apply the calculation table. The calculation table and formula could be used on site by related organizations to obtain important information for decision making, which could help in minimizing damage from chemical accidents, setting separation distances, and deciding to evacuate residents.

A Study on the Quantitative Risk Level Calculation Model in Cooperation with the Reserve Fund (예비비와 연계한 정량적 리스크 수준 산정 모델에 관한 연구)

  • Kwoak, Song-Hae;Park, Koo-Rack;Kim, Dong-Hyun
    • Journal of Digital Convergence
    • /
    • v.14 no.10
    • /
    • pp.159-166
    • /
    • 2016
  • Recent public information project, which has been organized mainly to large companies is a situation that is being reorganized to small and medium-sized systems integration company. However, many of the small and medium-sized companies lack knowledge of the systematic risk management. Thus, in connection with the revenue, it involves a number of problems. Therefore, in this paper, we present a risk element that occurs mainly in the field of the project, providing a model for measuring the risk element by risk level costs associated with this. Through the convergence, we aim at providing a management system that is able to make the project successfully accomplished, predicting the risk that occurs in advance to pursue the project; Based on the proposed model, it is possible to secure a proper size of reserve fund so it is expected to enable companies to ensure the cost of risk analysis.

A Study on the Risk Assessment of Small Reservoirs using Reliability Analysis Methods (신뢰도 분석기법을 이용한 소규모 저수지의 위험도 분석)

  • Kim, Mun-Mo;Park, Chang-Eon
    • Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
    • /
    • v.33 no.1
    • /
    • pp.15-30
    • /
    • 2000
  • This study is to develop the applied method of reliability analysis to present risk - initial water level relationship in the small reservoir. To determine the reliability, the grasping of uncertainty sources is prerequisited and performance function is formulated. Reliability analysis method is a statistical method and the basic procedure of risk evaluation for overtopping of reservoir is as follows. 1. Define the risk criterion and performance function for the overtopping. 2. Determine the uncertainties of all the variables in the performance function. 3. Perform the risk analysis with suitable risk calculation method. Reliability analysis method such as Monte Carlo simulation(MCS) method and mean value first order second moment(MVFOSM) method are used to calculate the risk for reservoir. Finally, risk - initial water level relationship is established according to return period and it is useful for reservoir operation and safety assessment.ssment.

  • PDF

Development of Strategics for Establishment of Spatial Information by Assessment of GIS-Based Flood Risk (GIS기반 홍수위험도 평가를 통한 공간정보 구축 방안 개발)

  • Sim, Gyoo Seong;Lee, Choon Ho;Lee, Tae Geun;Jee, Gye Hwan
    • Spatial Information Research
    • /
    • v.23 no.2
    • /
    • pp.39-48
    • /
    • 2015
  • In this study, we evaluated flood risk by applying calculation fomula considering practical risk calculated by inundation analysis information through 2D inundation analysis, suggested a plan that provides a standardized information system. Generally, we evaluated flood risk to people and classified four degrees by using inundation depth, velocity, Debris Factor and Flood Hazard Rating relationship because current flood risk assessment method based inundation depth and area was considered to not fully reflect the actual risk to people on flood. We simulated overflow and levee break scenarios according to 500 year and 200 year floods, respectively, by using Flumen which is a 2D flood inundation model for Geumho river basin in Daegu. The result of this study could contribute to inform practical risk information to people in expected flood area. This study can be useful for the fields of disaster estimatingsuch as information analysis, evaluation, planning by offering Risk information based on standardized information system.

Analysis on the Risk-Based Screening Levels Determined by Various Risk Assessment Tools (II): Derivation of Particulate Emission Factor at Former Janghang Smelter Site (다양한 위해성평가 방법에 따라 도출한 토양오염 판정기준의 차이에 관한 연구 (II): (구)장항제련소부지의 기상 및 부지 특성을 반영한 비산계수 결정)

  • Jung, Jae-Woong;Yang, Kyung;Lee, Gwang-Hun;Ryu, Hye-Rim;Nam, Kyoung-Phile
    • Journal of Soil and Groundwater Environment
    • /
    • v.17 no.3
    • /
    • pp.21-31
    • /
    • 2012
  • This paper presents the short-term and long-term measures to determine the fugitive dust concentration in a contaminated site, which is a crucial step for the determination of particulate emission factor (PEF) for risk assessment. As a long-term measure, USEPA method employing Q/C value (inverse of the ratio of the geometric mean air concentration to the emission flux at center of a 0.5-acre square source) seems to be suitable as it reflects regional-specific meteorological conditions. However, it requires nation-wide database collection and interpretation. Use of ASTM method is an alternative as a short-term measure. The method is readily field-applicable as PEF calculation equation is simple and input parameters can be easily derived at the site of interest as well without the nation-wide efforts. Using ASTM method, PEF at the Former Janghang Smelter Site was determined. According to various mode of aggregate size distribution and fractions of vegetative cover, which are the most important factors in PEF calculation, PEF values at the Former Janghang Smelter Site varied greatly. When the mode of aggregate size distribution was set at 0.25 mm, PEF values at the Former Janghang Smelter Site was 5~20 times higher than the default PEF value (i.e., 35 ${\mu}g/m^3$) shown in the current Korean Soil Contamination Risk Assessment Guidance. On contrast, when the mode was set at 2 mm, PEF values at the Former Janghang Smelter Site was 160~640 times lower than the default PEF value in the Korean Guidance.

Determination of Risk Ranking of Combination of Potentially Hazardous Foods and Foodborne Pathogens Using a Risk Ranger (Risk Ranger를 활용한 잠재적 위해식품과 미생물 조합에 대한 위해순위 결정)

  • Min, Kyung-Jin;Hwang, In-Gyun;Lee, Soon-Ho;Cho, Joon-Il;Yoon, Ki-Sun
    • Journal of Food Hygiene and Safety
    • /
    • v.26 no.2
    • /
    • pp.91-99
    • /
    • 2011
  • Risk ranking must be determined for various hazards/food combinations to conduct microbial risk management effectively. Risk Ranger is a simple, easy-to-use calculation tool developed in Microsoft Excel and designed to rank the risk (low, medium, and high) for semi-quantitative microbial risk assessment. The user is required to answer 11 questions in Risk Ranger related to 1) severity of the hazard, 2) likelihood of a disease-causing dose of the hazard being present in the meal, and 3) the probability of exposure to the hazard in a defined time. This study determined the risk ranking for twenty three combinations of foodborne pathogens/potentially hazardous foods (PHFs) using a Risk Ranger. In this study, pathogenic E. coli in fresh cut produce salad was scored as 79, which was the highest rank among the 23 combinations of the foodborne pathogens and PHFs. On the other hand, zero risk was obtained with V parahaemolyticus in sushi, Salmonella in meat products and E. coli O157:H7 in hamburger patties. Although Risk Ranger is very simple method to rate the risk of foodborne pathogens and PHFs combination, the accuracy of result was mainly affected by the availability and accuracy of data in the literature. According to the result of literature review, the data are needed for contamination rate of raw materials, consumption amount/frequency of PHFs, and the effect of processing on pathogen. Risk ranking must be continuously revalidated with new data.

A Study on Disaster Prevention and Risk Assessment System Applying Combustion Velocity at Traditional Housing Zone (전통건축물보존지구내에서의 연소속도식을 고려한 방재계획의 수립과 재난위험도평가 시스템 구축에 관한 연구)

  • 김희성;노삼규
    • Fire Science and Engineering
    • /
    • v.15 no.4
    • /
    • pp.1-9
    • /
    • 2001
  • The purpose of this study is to set up disaster prevention plan and risk assessment system considering combustion velocity at traditional housing zone. The combustion velocity analysis could contribute to build in disaster prevention technique through the potential risk analysis of the area, such analysis also able to set up comprehensive disaster prevention management system. Following results have achieved through the combustion velocity calculation. \circled1 The combustion velocity was calculated in order of the below winds, the above winds and the side winds. \circled2 It must be careful to set up disaster prevention plan in case of the below winds. \circled3 The combustion velocity was calculated at the density Bone where neighboring Distance and Length was small. \circled4 It proved that factors of each parameter not mostly effect to analyse the combustion velocity in limit of the 30 minutes after ignition. \circled5 At the density zone where Distance and Length is small the duration of transfer to neighboring house takes up to 4 minutes, it is required to set up of emergency response plan to minimize the fire dispersion.

  • PDF