• Title/Summary/Keyword: Risk calculation

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A method of determining pulse start points for reduction in computational amount of intercept array sonar (방수배열소나의 연산량 감소를 위한 펄스 시작점 산출 방법)

  • Do-Young Kim;Kee-Cheol Shin;Tae-Jin Jung;Min-Jeong Eom
    • Journal of the Institute of Convergence Signal Processing
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    • v.25 no.1
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    • pp.1-6
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    • 2024
  • The main function of intercept array sonar is to detect pulses radiated from enemy surface ships, submarines, and torpedoes. When a pulse is detected, it is a high risk situation for the own ship, so it is very important to find the target's location for the ship's maneuverability and survival. The target's location is calculated by finding the starting point of the pulse received form each sensor and calculating the time delay between sensors. In order to find starting point, the envelope of the signal is calculated and differential filtering is performed. However, since intercept array sonar has a high sampling frequency of the signal, the number of samples to be processed is large, so this process has a problem with a large computational amount. In this paper, we propose a pulse starting point calculation method using decimation for reducing computational amount. Simulations were performed while changing the decimation factor, and it was confirmed that computational amount was reduced. The proposed method is expected to be effective in real-time processing system and have advantages in resource utilization.

Intelligent optimal grey evolutionary algorithm for structural control and analysis

  • Z.Y. Chen;Yahui Meng;Ruei-Yuan Wang;Timothy Chen
    • Smart Structures and Systems
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    • v.33 no.5
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    • pp.365-374
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    • 2024
  • This paper adopts a new approach in which nonlinear vibrations can be controlled using fuzzy controllers by optimal grey evolutionary algorithm. If the fuzzy controller cannot stabilize the systems, then the high frequency is injected into the system to assist the controller, and the system is asymptotically stabilized by adjusting the parameters. This paper uses the GM (grey model) and the neural network prediction model. The structure of the neural network is improved from a single factor, and multiple data inputs are extended to various factors and numerous data inputs. The improved model expands the applicable range of uncontrolled elements and improves the accuracy of controlled prediction, using the model that has been trained and stabilized by multiple learning. The simulation results show that the improved gray neural network model has higher prediction accuracy and reliability than the traditional GM model, improving controlled management and pre-control ability. In the combined prediction, the time series parameters and the predicted values obtained from the GM (1,1) (Grey Model of first order and one variable) are simultaneously used as the input terms of the neural network, considering the influence of the non-equal spacing of the data, which makes the results of the combined gray neural network model more rationalized. By adjusting the model structure and system parameters to simulate and analyze the controlled elements, the corresponding risk change trend graphs and prediction numerical calculation results are obtained, which also realize the effective prediction of controlled elements. According to the controlled warning principle and objective, the fuzzy evaluation method establishes the corresponding early warning response method. The goals of this paper are towards access to adequate, safe and affordable housing and basic services, promotion of inclusive and sustainable urbanization and participation, implementation of sustainable and disaster-resilient buildings, sustainable human settlement planning and manage.

A Prediction of N-value Using Artificial Neural Network (인공신경망을 이용한 N치 예측)

  • Kim, Kwang Myung;Park, Hyoung June;Goo, Tae Hun;Kim, Hyung Chan
    • The Journal of Engineering Geology
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    • v.30 no.4
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    • pp.457-468
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    • 2020
  • Problems arising during pile design works for plant construction, civil and architecture work are mostly come from uncertainty of geotechnical characteristics. In particular, obtaining the N-value measured through the Standard Penetration Test (SPT) is the most important data. However, it is difficult to obtain N-value by drilling investigation throughout the all target area. There are many constraints such as licensing, time, cost, equipment access and residential complaints etc. it is impossible to obtain geotechnical characteristics through drilling investigation within a short bidding period in overseas. The geotechnical characteristics at non-drilling investigation points are usually determined by the engineer's empirical judgment, which can leads to errors in pile design and quantity calculation causing construction delay and cost increase. It would be possible to overcome this problem if N-value could be predicted at the non-drilling investigation points using limited minimum drilling investigation data. This study was conducted to predicted the N-value using an Artificial Neural Network (ANN) which one of the Artificial intelligence (AI) method. An Artificial Neural Network treats a limited amount of geotechnical characteristics as a biological logic process, providing more reliable results for input variables. The purpose of this study is to predict N-value at the non-drilling investigation points through patterns which is studied by multi-layer perceptron and error back-propagation algorithms using the minimum geotechnical data. It has been reviewed the reliability of the values that predicted by AI method compared to the measured values, and we were able to confirm the high reliability as a result. To solving geotechnical uncertainty, we will perform sensitivity analysis of input variables to increase learning effect in next steps and it may need some technical update of program. We hope that our study will be helpful to design works in the future.

A study on the efficient application of the replicating portfolio according to the tax imposition within K-OTC market for activating financial transactions of small-medium and venture business (중소 벤처 기업의 금융거래 활성화를 위하여 K-OTC 시장에서 조세부과에 따른 복제포트폴리오의 효율적 활용에 대한 연구)

  • Yoo, Joon-soo
    • Journal of Venture Innovation
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    • v.1 no.1
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    • pp.83-98
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    • 2018
  • This paper makes a theoretical approach to the differences between transaction tax and capital gains tax when the financial instruments are traded and imposed taxes in K-OTC market, a newly emerging off-board market. Since it is difficult to reduce risk to the level which investors would like to pursue - depending on the taxation methods of portfolio-composed financial instruments - when it comes to forming a synthetic bond to hedge risk, this paper also seeks for effective taxation methods to make this applicable. First of all, to thoroughly review the taxation balance of synthetic bonds, this paper analyzed the effects of the transaction tax and capital gains tax imposed upon synthetic bonds according to the changes in final stock price and strike price in K-OTC market, and analyzed after-tax profit differences among them depending on whether income tax deduction took place or not. As a result of the research upon the tax gap in transaction tax and capital gains tax according to the changes of final stock prices, it was shown that imposing transaction tax is more likely to be effective for some level of risk hedging with replicating portfolio considering taxation policies and financial markets, since the effect of the transaction tax has a much lower tax gap than that of capital gains tax. In addition, in relation to whether income tax deduction was permitted or not, it was proved that the effect of the transaction tax and the capital gains tax vary depending on the variation in the strike price. Above all, it was shown that if the strike price is lower than the stock price, the transaction tax will be less affected by the existence of income tax deduction than the capital gains tax, while both will be equally affected by the existence of income tax deduction if the strike price is higher than the stock price. Further study would be to demonstrate the validation of this in the K-OTC market with actual financial instruments and, also, to seek for a more systematic hedging method by using a ratio analysis approach to the calculation of the option transaction tax

A Study on the Reliability Analysis and Risk Assessment of Liquefied Natural Gas Supply Utilities (천연가스 공급설비에 대한 기기신뢰도 분석 및 위험성 평가)

  • Ko, Jae-Sun;Kim, Hyo
    • Fire Science and Engineering
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    • v.17 no.1
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    • pp.8-20
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    • 2003
  • Natural gas has been supplied through underground pipelines and valve stations as a new city gas in Seoul. In contrast to its handiness the natural gas has very substantial hazards due to fires and explosions occurring from careless treatments or malfunctions of the transporting system. The main objectives of this study are to identify major hazards and to perform risk assessments after assessing reliabilities of the composing units in dealing with typical pipeline networks. there-fore two method, fault tree analysis ;1nd event tree analysis, are used here. Random valve stations are selected and considered its situation in location. The value of small leakage, large rupture, and no supply of liquefied natural gas is estimated as that of top event. By this calculation the values of small leakage are 3.29 in I)C valve station, 1.41 in DS valve station, those of large rup-lure are $1.90Times10_{-2}$ in DC valve station, $2.32$\times$10^{-2}$ in DS valve station, and those of no supply of LNG to civil gas company are $2.33$\times$10 ^{-2}$ , $2.89$\times$10^{-2}$ in each valve station. And through minimal cut set we can find the parts that is important and should be more important in overall system. In DC valve station one line must be added between basic event 26,27 because the potential hazard of these parts is the highest value. If it is added the failure rate of no supply of LNG is reduced to one fourth. In DS valve station the failure rate of basic event 4 is 92eye of no supply of LNG. Therefore if the portion of this part is reduced (one line added) the total failure rate can be decreased to one tenth. This analytical study on the risk assessment is very useful to prepare emergency actions or procedures in case of gas accidents around underground pipeline networks and to establish a resolute gas safety management system for loss prevention in Seoul metropolitan area.

A Study on the Inventory Estimation for the Activated Bioshield Concrete of KRR-2 (연구로 2호기 방사화 수조 콘크리트의 재고량 평가에 관한 연구)

  • Hong, Sang Bum;Seo, Bum Kyoung;Cho, Dong Keun;Jeong, Gyeong Hwan;Moon, Jei Kwon
    • Journal of Radiation Protection and Research
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    • v.37 no.4
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    • pp.202-207
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    • 2012
  • The radioactivity inventory significantly affects all steps of decommissioning projects including planning, cost estimation, risk assessment, waste management and site remediation. The decommissioning project of the KRR-2 was completed in 2009 and a large amount of activated concrete waste was generated. The bioshield concrete, containing minute amount of impurity elements, was activated by neutron reaction during the operation of the reactor. A variety radionuclides was generated in the concrete, including $^3H$, $^{14}C$, $^{55}Fe$, $^{60}Co$ $^{63}Ni$, $^{134}Cs$, $^{152}Eu$ and $^{154}Eu$. In this paper, the comparison between the calculated results and previous measured results was carried out to estimate the inventory of the bioshield concrete of the KRR-2. The combined computer codes of MCNP5 and ORIGEN 2.1 for calculation of the distribution of neutron flux, cross-section and generation of radionuclides were used. The results were shown that 99.8% of the total radioactivity of $^3H$, $^{55}Fe$, $^{60}Co$ and $^{152}Eu$ in the bioshield concrete 12 years after shutdown. The effects on the variation of inventory were analysed depending on the operation periods and the cooling times in the bioshield concrete.

The Study on the Economic Appraisal of Fishing Port Investments (어항투자사업의 경제성 평가에 관한 연구)

  • 정형찬
    • The Journal of Fisheries Business Administration
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    • v.14 no.2
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    • pp.15-68
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    • 1983
  • From the economic point of view the fishing port is the complex of installations on land, organized to serve the fishing fleet and its cargo, and is the main link in the production chain of all components of the fishing industry, with the aim of achieving the planned targets with the minimum cost. Fishing port investment decisions have had significant impact on the development aims of Korean fisheries. Fishing port investments in Korea are made mostly by public or semipublic port authorities. Such investments should be judged not purely on the basis of financial profitability but rather on the extent to which they serve the development aims of the fishing industry. This makes the economic appraisal process more complex and presents certain problems in correctly quantifying the economic costs and benefits of the fishing port projects. This study concentrates more on the theoretical economic appraisal models than on the purely financial aspects of fishing port investments and points out the difference between the two approaches. In the result, there is clearly an element of judgment as to whether or not a shadow price needs to be used in estimating economic benefits and costs. From this viewpoint, some attempts are made to provide definitions of the possible economic benefits and costs, and methods for estimating and evaluating them in Part III and IV. Especially queueing theory is applied in the calculation of economic benefits. When a project is contemplated and analysis shows it to Lave a positive NPV, one question that arises is whether it should be implemented now or delayed. In this paper, the first year rate of return method is regarded as a more concise way of solving the timing of investment, At the end of Part IV, risk analysis of fishing port investments is considered. It can be handled in a number of ways, ranging from informal judgment to complex statistical analyses involving large-scale computer models, This paper recommends that evaluators of fishing port investments use the sensitivity analysis indicating exactly how much NPV will change in response to a given change in an input variable, other things held constant. Decisions regarding the amount of capacity to provide must be made in fishing port investments. Providing too much service would involve excessive capital costs. On the other hand, not providing enough service capacity would cause the waiting line of fishing vessels to become excessively long at times. Therefore, in Part V, the optimal number of berths and berth productivity in fishing port are defined as follows: Minimize E(TC) = E(WC)+E(SC) The minimum of this function is the solution and that is the optimal number of berth and berth productivity in fishing port.

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Effect of Homofermentative and Heterofermentative Lactic Acid Bacteria on the Quality and Aerobic Stability of Silage : Meta-Analysis (Homo형 발효 및 Hetero형 발효 젖산균의 사용이 사일리지의 품질 및 호기적 안정성에 미치는 효과 : 메타분석)

  • Cho, Sangbuem;Kang, Jung Sun;Cho, Kyung Jin;Lee, Kang Hee;Kwon, Chan Ho;Song, Jaeyong;Lee, Kihwan;Kim, Su Yeon;Kim, Eun Joong
    • Journal of The Korean Society of Grassland and Forage Science
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    • v.34 no.4
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    • pp.247-253
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    • 2014
  • In the silage quality, the process of fermentation and use of micro-organism as starter cultures are crucial. The present study investigated the effect of homo and heterofermentative lactic acid bacteria as a starter culture strain on the silage quality and its aerobic stability using meta-analysis. Total 19 studies were used in the analysis. According to the strains of lactic acid bacteria used, experimental groups were assigned to heterofermentative (HEL), mixture of hetero and homofermentative (HHO), homofermentative (HOL) and various homofermentative (HOM). In each experimental group, standardized result of the treatment (with inoculant) was compared with the control (without inoculant) using risk ratio calculation method. The effect of experimental group was also compared. Different starter culture strains did not influence on silage pH and propionic acid production. However, lactic acid and acetic acid production were significantly (p<0.05) influenced by the start culture strains. HOM showed the greatest lactic acid production and HEL was the lowest. In contrast, HEL showed the greatest in acetic acid production and HOM and HOL were the lowest. In terms of ammonia nitrogen, HHO produced more (p<0.05) than the rest of the treatment. In crude protein and water soluble carbohydrate contents, there were no significant effects among treatments. Different strain of lactic acid bacteria significantly influenced on the effect of aerobic stability (p<0.05). Use of heterofermentative showed greater aerobic stability and the use of homofermentative lactic acid bacteria.

A Study on the Examination of Explosion Hazardous Area Applying Ventilation and Dilution (환기 및 희석을 적용한 폭발위험장소 검토에 관한 연구)

  • kim, Nam Suk;Lim, Jae Geun;Woo, In Sung
    • Journal of the Korean Institute of Gas
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    • v.22 no.4
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    • pp.27-31
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    • 2018
  • Classification of explosion hazard areas is very important in terms of cost and safety in the workplace handling flammable materials. This is because the radius of the hazardous area determines whether or not the explosion-proof equipment is installed in the electrical machinery and apparatus. From November 6, 2017, KS C IEC-60079-10-1: 2015 will be issued and applied as a new standard. It is important to understand and apply the difference between the existing standard and the new standard. Leakage coefficients and compression factors were added to the leakage calculation formula, and the formula of evaporation pool leakage, application of leakage ball size, and shape of explosion hazard area were applied. The range of the safety factor K has also been changed. Also, in the radius of the hazardous area, the existing standard applies the number of ventilation to the virtual volume, but the revised standard is calculated by using the leakage characteristic value. In this study, we investigated the differences from existing standards in terms of ventilation and dilution and examined the effect on the radius of the hazard area. Comparisons and analyzes were carried out by applying revised standards to workplaces where existing explosion hazard locations were selected. The results showed that even if the ventilation and dilution were successful, the risk radius was not substantially affected.

An Experimental Study on Loll (음의 복원력에 의한 횡경사 실험 연구)

  • You, Su-Yeon;Pag, Chong-Lyong;Jung, Dae-Deug
    • Journal of the Korean Society of Marine Environment & Safety
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    • v.22 no.6
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    • pp.654-659
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    • 2016
  • Recently, the passenger ship 'Sewol' capsized with an abrupt inclination while she was making a small angle alteration. It is very important to fully understand the concepts, causes and relevant corrections for a ship's transverse inclination, which is classified into heel, list and loll. In this study, the concept, development and calculation of loll were well considered and the actual magnitude of the angle of loll was simulated in a box-shaped model-ship experiment. The experimental values and its development according to different values of negative stability were compared with calculated values. In the results, experimental values for the angle of loll coincided closely with calculated values and the model inclined symmetrically on both port and starboard sides indicating an outstanding feature of loll. This study is expected to expand the concept of loll and help in the analysis of capsize incidents with unknown causes. Further experimental research or case studies concerning the risk of inappropriate correction for loll arising from misunderstandings will be needed.