• Title/Summary/Keyword: Risk assessment Model

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Ecological Risk Assessment of Residual Petroleum Hydrocarbons using a Foodweb Bioaccumulation Model (먹이연쇄 생물축적 모형을 이용한 잔류유류오염물질의 생태위해성평가)

  • Hwang, Sang-Il;Kwon, Jung-Hwan
    • Journal of Korean Society of Environmental Engineers
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    • v.31 no.11
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    • pp.947-956
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    • 2009
  • Residual petroleum hydrocarbons after an oil spill may accumulate in the marine benthic ecosystem due to their high hydrophobicity. A lot of monitoring data are required for the estimation of ecosystem exposure to residual petrochemicals in an ecological risk assessment in the affected region. To save time and cost, the environmental exposure to them in the affected ecosystem can also be assessed using a simple food-web bioaccumulation model. In this study, we evaluated residual concentrations of four selected polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (phenanthrene, anthracene, pyrene, and benzo[a]pyrene) in a hypothetic benthic ecosystem composed of six species under two exposure scenarios. Body-residue concentration ranged 5~250 mg/kg body depending on trophic positions in an extreme scenario in which the aqueous concentrations of PAHs were assumed to be one-tenth of their aqueous solubility. In addition, bioconcentration factors (BCFs) and bioaccumulation factors (BAFs) were evaluated for model species. The logarithm of bioconcentration factor (log BCF) linearly increased with increasing the logarithm of 1-octanol-water partition coefficient (log $K_{OW}$) until log $K_{OW}$ of 7.0, followed by a gradual decrease with further increase in log $K_{OW}$ without metabolic degradation. Biomagnification became significant when log $K_{OW}$ of a pollutant exceeded 5.0 in the model ecosystem, indicating that investigation of food-web structure should be critical to predict biomagnifications in the affected ecosystem because log $K_{OW}$ values of many petrochemicals are higher than 5.0. Although further research is required for better site-specific evaluation of exposure, the model simulation can be used to estimate the level of the ecosystem exposure to residual oil contaminants at the screening level.

Assessment of Small Mountainous Catchment Runoff at Yongdam-dam Guryang (산지 소규모 유역의 유출 특성 평가-용담 구량천)

  • Kim, Seong-Goo;Chang, Hyung-Joon;Lee, Hyo-Sang
    • Journal of the Korea Academia-Industrial cooperation Society
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    • v.19 no.4
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    • pp.633-641
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    • 2018
  • The risk of disasters, such as floods and drought, has increased. Reliable hydrological data is important for analyzing the water resource and designing hydraulic structure to manage these risks. The Yongdam Guryang river catchment located in the central of Korea is the research catchment of K-water and UNESCO IHP, and the hydrological data, such as rainfall, runoff, evapotranspiration, etc. has been observed at the catchment. The aim of this study was to assess the runoff characteristics of the small mountainous catchment of Korea based on the observed hydrological data, and the Probability Distributed Model was applied as the Rainfall-Runoff Model at the Yongdam Guryang river catchment. The hydrological data was divided into the wet period from June to September and dry period from October to May according to data analysis. The runoff ratio was 0.27~0.41 in the wet period and 0.30~0.45 in the dry period. The calibration result by the Probability Distributed Model showed a difference in the calibrated model parameters according to the periods. In addition, the model simulated the runoff accurately except for the dry period of 2015, and the result revealed the applicability of the PDM. This study showed the runoff characteristics of the small mountainous catchment by dividing the hydrological data into dry and wet periods.

Development of ANSP Safety Maturity Survey Model for Enhancement of Air Traffic Service (항행 서비스 향상을 위한 항행시설 안전성숙도 평가 모델 개발)

  • Park, Dam-yong
    • Journal of Advanced Navigation Technology
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    • v.20 no.2
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    • pp.141-147
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    • 2016
  • Stable and reliable air traffic service is required for users (aircraft pilot, air traffic controller, airlines and public) through enhancing capability related to airport operation and continuously improving air navigation system. ASMS (air navigation service provider (ANSP) safety maturity survey) is to determine the level of management and safety requirement such as organization, risk, policy, process, training and environment in Air traffic service field. We designed and developed the survey (26 study areas of management part and 23 study areas of safety part) considering global best practices (Eurocontrol and FAA) and customizing domestic circumstances with quantitative level assessment regarding management and safety issue of Air navigation system. The survey enables the performance of Air navigation system to enhance and prevents from occurring accident or incident. Therefore, we provides best information with users as well as high quality Air traffic service.

L-Tetrahydropalmatine Ameliorates Development of Anxiety and Depression-Related Symptoms Induced by Single Prolonged Stress in Rats

  • Lee, Bombi;Sur, Bongjun;Yeom, Mijung;Shim, Insop;Lee, Hyejung;Hahm, Dae-Hyun
    • Biomolecules & Therapeutics
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    • v.22 no.3
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    • pp.213-222
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    • 2014
  • Abnormal adaptation of the stress-response system following traumatic stress can lead to alterations in the hypothalamic-pituitaryadrenal (HPA) axis that may contribute to the development of post-traumatic stress disorder (PTSD). The present study used several behavioral tests to investigate the anxiolytic-like and antidepressant activity of L-tetrahydropalmatine (L-THP) in an experimental rat model of anxiety and depression induced by single prolonged stress (SPS), an animal model of PTSD. Male rats were treated intraperitoneally (i.p.) with vehicle or varied doses of THP 30 min prior to SPS for 8 consecutive days. Daily THP (50 mg/kg) administration significantly increased the number and duration of open arm visits in the elevated plus maze (EPM) test, reduced the anxiety index, increased the risk assessment, and increased the number of head dips over the borders of the open arms after SPS. THP was also associated with increased time spent at the center of the open field, reduced grooming behaviors in the EPM test, and reduced time spent immobile in the forced swimming test (FST). It also blocked the decrease in neuropeptide Y (NPY) and the increase in corticotrophin-releasing factor (CRF) expression in the hypothalamus. This is the first study to determine that THP exerts pronounced anxiolytic-like and antidepressant effects on the development of the behavioral and biochemical symptoms associated with PTSD, indicating its prophylactic potential. Thus, THP reversed several behavioral impairments triggered by the traumatic stress of SPS and is a potential non-invasive therapeutic intervention for PTSD.

Chamnamul [Pimpinella brachycarpa (Kom.) Nakai] ameliorates hyperglycemia and improves antioxidant status in mice fed a high-fat, high-sucrose diet

  • Lee, Soo-Jin;Choi, Ha-Neul;Kang, Min-Jung;Choe, Eunok;Auh, Joong Hyuck;Kim, Jung-In
    • Nutrition Research and Practice
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    • v.7 no.6
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    • pp.446-452
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    • 2013
  • Chronic consumption of a high-fat, high-sucrose (HFHS) diet increases insulin resistance and results in type 2 diabetes mellitus in C57BL/6J mice. Hyperglycemia in diabetics increases oxidative stress, which is associated with a high risk of diabetic complications. The purpose of this study was to examine the hypoglycemic and antioxidant effects of chamnamul [Pimpinella brachycarpa (Kom.) Nakai] in an animal model of type 2 diabetes. The ${\alpha}$-glucosidase inhibitory activity of a 70% ethanol extract of chamnamul was measured in vitro. Five-week-old male C57BL/6J mice were fed a basal or HFHS diet with or without a 70% ethanol extract of chamnamul at a 0.5% level of the diet for 12 weeks after 1 week of adaptation. After sacrifice, serum glucose, insulin, adiponectin, and lipid profiles, and lipid peroxidation of the liver were determined. Homeostasis model assessment for insulin resistance (HOMA-IR) was determined. Chamnamul extract inhibited ${\alpha}$-glucosidase by 26.7%, which was 78.3% the strength of inhibition by acarbose at a concentration of 0.5 mg/mL. Serum glucose, insulin, and cholesterol levels, as well as HOMA-IR values, were significantly lower in the chamnamul group than in the HFHS group. Chamnamul extract significantly decreased the level of thiobarbituric acid reactive substances and increased the activities of superoxide dismutase, catalase, and glutathione peroxidase in the liver compared with the HFHS group. These findings suggest that chamnamul may be useful in prevention of hyperglycemia and reduction of oxidative stress in mice fed a HFHS diet.

Assessment of Occupational Exposure to Antineoplastic Agents in a Healthcare Setting (무균조제 항암제 취급의 안전관리)

  • Lee, Su-Mi;Chung, Seon-Young;Im, Hyun-Jeong;Park, Hyo-Jung;Lee, Su-Yun;Jeon, Eun-Yong;Sohn, Kie-Ho
    • YAKHAK HOEJI
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    • v.55 no.2
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    • pp.81-90
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    • 2011
  • Most antineoplastic agents are nonselective in their mechanism of action, affecting noncancerous as well as cancerous cells, and resulting in acute effects such as irritation of mucous membranes and chronic effects such as genotoxicity, teratogenicity, and carcinogenicity. Healthcare workers occupationally exposed to antineoplastic agents are at risk. The present study aimed to develop and apply methods to monitor occupational exposure to antineoplastic agents, using cyclophosphamide (CP) as the model compound. To monitor environmental and biological exposure, potentially contaminated surfaces were wiped and 24 hour urine samples were collected from workers. Liquid chromatography combined with tandem mass spectrometry was performed, with a limit of detection of 0.05 ng/ml. Measurable amounts of CP were detected on 92% of the sampled surfaces, with a geometric mean of 175.22 $ng/m^2$. Despite the environmental contamination of the model compound, CP was below the detection limit in all urine samples. If workplace contamination cannot be completely avoided, it is importance to reduce exposure to the lowest possible levels. To this aim, efforts to minimize occupational exposure along with biological and environmental monitoring are required. The standardized sampling techniques, and specific and sensitive analytical methods reported in this study may be helpful in assessing occupational exposure and devising strategies to reduce exposure.

A Resilience-based Model for Performance Evaluation of Information Systems (복원탄력성기반 정보시스템 성과평가모델 연구)

  • Kim, Kyung-Ihl;Lee, Seong-Hyo
    • Journal of Convergence for Information Technology
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    • v.10 no.3
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    • pp.1-6
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    • 2020
  • Information System is influenced by the innovation of new IT. Therefore, IS should response to external environment's changes quickly. Particularly, resilience should be considered in barriers of IS. This study suggests a new information system evaluation model in which resilience is added to the existing factors of Delone and Mclean. Then the effect of resilience is evaluated through the DEA(Data Envelopment Analysis) based on a survey targeting 115 users of a mid-sized manufacturing company. The results show that the effect of resilience is stronger than any other factors in the previous researches. We, thus, suggest that the resilience should be included as an evaluation factor of the ISO27001 information security standard in order to enhance the absorptive capacity of the information system.

Analysis of the potential landslide hazard after wildfire considering compound disaster effect (복합재해 영향을 고려한 산불 후 산사태 잠재적 피해 위험도 분석)

  • Lee, Jong-Ook;Lee, Dong-Kun;Song, Young-Il
    • Journal of the Korean Society of Environmental Restoration Technology
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    • v.22 no.1
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    • pp.33-45
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    • 2019
  • Compound disaster is the type that increases the impact affected by two or more hazard events, and attention to compound disaster and multi-hazards risk is growing due to potential damages which are difficult to predict. The objective of this study is to analyze the possible impacts of post-fire landslide scenario quantitatively by using TRIGRS (Transient Rainfall Infiltration and Grid-Based Regional Slope-Stability Analysis), a physics-based landslide model. In the case of wildfire, soil organic material and density are altered, and saturated hydraulic conductivity decrease because of soil exposed to high temperature. We have included the change of soil saturated hydraulic conductivity into the TRIGRS model through literature review. For a case study, we selected the area of $8km^2$ in Pyeongchang County. The landslide modeling process was calibrated before simulate the post-wildfire impact based on landslide inventory data to reduce uncertainty. As a result, the mean of the total factor of safety values in the case of landslide was 2.641 when rainfall duration is 1 hour with rainfall intensity of 100mm per day, while the mean value for the case of post-wildfire landslide was lower to 2.579, showing potential landslide occurrence areas appear more quickly in the compound disaster scenario. This study can be used to prevent potential losses caused by the compound disaster such as post-wildfire debris flow or landslides.

Association of Financial Distress and Predicted Bankruptcy: The Case of Pakistani Banking Sector

  • ULLAH, Hafeez;WANG, Zhuquan;ABBAS, Muhammad Ghazanfar;ZHANG, Fan;SHAHZAD, Umeair;MAHMOOD, Memon Rafait
    • The Journal of Asian Finance, Economics and Business
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    • v.8 no.1
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    • pp.573-585
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    • 2021
  • The banking sector is one of the most important sectors in Pakistan's struggling economy. Recent studies have recommended that suitable methods can be applied to predict bankruptcy. In this context, this work analyzes Pakistan's banking sector's financial status through the five-factor Altman Z-score model, which determines the probability of bankruptcy for an organization. Banking data has been collected through the Pakistan Stock Exchange (PSX) in the period 2013-2017. The Z-score assessment criteria is defined as: Z> 2.99 - "safe" zone; Z> 1.8 Z>2.98- "grey" zone; and Z <1.8 - "distress" zone. Results show good predictions for the local banking industry, while most foreign Pakistani banks were found bankrupt with the Z-score below 1.1. One of the financial risks investors face when investing in any company is the risk of bankruptcy. One of the most used models for predicting financial distress for any company is Altman's Z-score model. On the other hand, the Z-score analysis suggests that all banking establishments are not bankrupt because they have sufficient ability to control bankruptcy. At the same time, foreign banks failed financially and would not be able to be sustained in the future because they do not have the ability to pay the short-term and long-term debt.

Preliminary design and assessment of a heat pipe residual heat removal system for the reactor driven subcritical facility

  • Zhang, Wenwen;Sun, Kaichao;Wang, Chenglong;Zhang, Dalin;Tian, Wenxi;Qiu, Suizheng;Su, G.H.
    • Nuclear Engineering and Technology
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    • v.53 no.12
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    • pp.3879-3891
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    • 2021
  • A heat pipe residual heat removal system is proposed to be incorporated into the reactor driven subcritical (RDS) facility, which has been proposed by MIT Nuclear Reactor Laboratory for testing and demonstrating the Fluoride-salt-cooled High-temperature Reactor (FHR). It aims to reduce the risk of the system operation after the shutdown of the facility. One of the main components of the system is an air-cooled heat pipe heat exchanger. The alkali-metal high-temperature heat pipe was designed to meet the operation temperature and residual heat removal requirement of the facility. The heat pipe model developed in the previous work was adopted to simulate the designed heat pipe and assess the heat transport capability. 3D numerical simulation of the subcritical facility active zone was performed by the commercial CFD software STAR CCM + to investigate the operation characteristics of this proposed system. The thermal resistance network of the heat pipe was built and incorporated into the CFD model. The nominal condition, partial loss of air flow accident and partial heat pipe failure accident were simulated and analyzed. The results show that the residual heat removal system can provide sufficient cooling of the subcritical facility with a remarkable safety margin. The heat pipe can work under the recommended operation temperature range and the heat flux is below all thermal limits. The facility peak temperature is also lower than the safety limits.