• 제목/요약/키워드: Risk Risk stratification

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Negative DEA를 이용한 국내항만의 운영위험평가 측정방법 (A Measurement Way of Operation Risk Evaluation of Korean Seaports Using Negative DEA)

  • 박노경
    • 한국항만경제학회지
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    • 제25권2호
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    • pp.57-72
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    • 2009
  • 본 논문에서는 국내 13개 항만을 대상으로, 정상DEA 제1모형에서는 2개의 산출물(수출입 물량, 선박입출항척수)과 2개의 투입물(접안능력, 하역능력), 제2모형에서는 4개의 투입물(접안능력, 하역능력, 경비함정수, 특수함정수)과 2개의 산출물(수출입물량, 선박입출항척수)을 이용하여 전통적인 투입지향, 가변규모수확조건하에서 분석을 통해 상대적인 효율성을 측정하였으며, 기존연구의 한계를 확장시키기 위해서 국내 항만분야에서는 처음으로 Negative DEA분석(산출지향, 가변규모수확조건, 투입요소: 수출입물량, 선박입출항척수, 산출요소: 해양사고, 해상범죄, 해양오염사고)을 통해서 항만운영에 위험이 되는 산출요소를 반영하여 가장 효율적인 항만들이 가장 운영위험이 큰 항만들임을 실증분석을 통해서 보여 주었다. 주요한 실증분석 결과는 다음과 같다. 첫째, 정상 DEA모형에서 운영효율성이 가장 낮은 동해항은 여수항, 부산항, 울산항들의 운영방법을 중-장기적인 측면에서 벤치마킹해야만 한다. 둘째, Negative DEA모형에서 가장 운영위험이 높은 항만들은 태안, 여수, 통영, 부산, 속초항으로 나타났다. 본 연구의 정책적인 함의는 다음과 같다. 즉, 첫째, 항만운영에 관여하는 정책입안가들은 본 연구에서 사용한 정상DEA모형에 의해서 비효율적인 항만들은 단기 중기 장기적으로 벤치마킹항만들의 운영방법을 추구해야만 한다. 둘째, Negative DEA분석을 통해서 가장 운영위험이 높은 항만은 5개 항만인 것으로 나타났다. 즉, 태안, 여수, 통영, 부산, 속초항들이다. 따라서 이러한 항만들은 중-장기적으로는 2층 효율성 분석에서 효율적이지 않은 것으로 나타난 인천, 울산, 포항, 동해항을 벤치마킹해야만 한다. 본 논문의 한계점은 Simak(2000)이 제시한 것과 같은 다양한 방법과 다년도분석법을 사용하여 항만들의 운영위험을 예측하는 측정을 했어야만 했지만 자료수집의 문제점 때문에 그렇게 하지 못하였다. 차후연구에서는 그러한 방법을 다루고자 한다.

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Central Sarcopenia, Frailty and Comorbidity as Predictor of Surgical Outcome in Elderly Patients with Degenerative Spine Disease

  • Kim, Dong Uk;Park, Hyung Ki;Lee, Gyeoung Hae;Chang, Jae Chil;Park, Hye Ran;Park, Sukh Que;Cho, Sung Jin
    • Journal of Korean Neurosurgical Society
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    • 제64권6호
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    • pp.995-1003
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    • 2021
  • Objective : People are living longer and the elderly population continues to increase. The incidence of degenerative spinal diseases (DSDs) in the elderly population is quite high. Therefore, we are facing more cases of DSD and offering more surgical solutions in geriatric patients. Understanding the significance and association of frailty and central sarcopenia as risk factors for spinal surgery in elderly patients will be helpful in improving surgical outcomes. We conducted a retrospective cohort analysis of prospectively collected data to assess the impact of preoperative central sarcopenia, frailty, and comorbidity on surgical outcome in elderly patients with DSD. Methods : We conducted a retrospective analysis of patients who underwent elective spinal surgery performed from January 1, 2019 to September 30, 2020 at our hospital. We included patients aged 65 and over who underwent surgery on the thoracic or lumbar spine and were diagnosed as DSD. Central sarcopenia was measured by the 50th percentile of psoas : L4 vertebral index (PLVI) using the cross-sectional area of the psoas muscle. We used the Korean version of the fatigue, resistance, ambulation, illnesses, and loss of weight (K-FRAIL) scale to measure frailty. Comorbidity was confirmed and scored using the Charlson Comorbidity Index (CCI). As a tool for measuring surgical outcome, we used the Clavien-Dindo (CD) classification for postoperative complications and the length of stay (LOS). Results : This study included 85 patients (35 males and 50 females). The mean age was 74.05±6.47 years. Using the K-FRAIL scale, four patients were scored as robust, 44 patients were pre-frail and 37 patients were frail. The mean PLVI was 0.61±0.19. According to the CD classification, 50 patients were classified as grade 1, 19 as grade 2, and four as grade 4. The mean LOS was 12.35±8.17 days. Multivariate stepwise regression analysis showed that postoperative complication was significantly associated with surgical invasiveness and K-FRAIL scale. LOS was significantly associated with surgical invasiveness and CCI. K-FRAIL scale showed a significant correlation with CCI and PLVI. Conclusion : The present study demonstrates that frailty, comorbidity, and surgical invasiveness are important risk factors for postoperative complications and LOS in elderly patients with DSD. Preoperative recognition of these factors may be useful for perioperative optimization, risk stratification, and patient counseling.

Preoperative Prediction for Early Recurrence Can Be as Accurate as Postoperative Assessment in Single Hepatocellular Carcinoma Patients

  • Dong Ik Cha;Kyung Mi Jang;Seong Hyun Kim;Young Kon Kim;Honsoul Kim;Soo Hyun Ahn
    • Korean Journal of Radiology
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    • 제21권4호
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    • pp.402-412
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    • 2020
  • Objective: To evaluate the performance of predicting early recurrence using preoperative factors only in comparison with using both pre-/postoperative factors. Materials and Methods: We retrospectively reviewed 549 patients who had undergone curative resection for single hepatcellular carcinoma (HCC) within Milan criteria. Multivariable analysis was performed to identify pre-/postoperative high-risk factors of early recurrence after hepatic resection for HCC. Two prediction models for early HCC recurrence determined by stepwise variable selection methods based on Akaike information criterion were built, either based on preoperative factors alone or both pre-/postoperative factors. Area under the curve (AUC) for each receiver operating characteristic curve of the two models was calculated, and the two curves were compared for non-inferiority testing. The predictive models of early HCC recurrence were internally validated by bootstrap resampling method. Results: Multivariable analysis on preoperative factors alone identified aspartate aminotransferase/platelet ratio index (OR, 1.632; 95% CI, 1.056-2.522; p = 0.027), tumor size (OR, 1.025; 95% CI, 0.002-1.049; p = 0.031), arterial rim enhancement of the tumor (OR, 2.350; 95% CI, 1.297-4.260; p = 0.005), and presence of nonhypervascular hepatobiliary hypointense nodules (OR, 1.983; 95% CI, 1.049-3.750; p = 0.035) on gadoxetic acid-enhanced magnetic resonance imaging as significant factors. After adding postoperative histopathologic factors, presence of microvascular invasion (OR, 1.868; 95% CI, 1.155-3.022; p = 0.011) became an additional significant factor, while tumor size became insignificant (p = 0.119). Comparison of the AUCs of the two models showed that the prediction model built on preoperative factors alone was not inferior to that including both pre-/postoperative factors {AUC for preoperative factors only, 0.673 (95% confidence interval [CI], 0.623-0.723) vs. AUC after adding postoperative factors, 0.691 (95% CI, 0.639-0.744); p = 0.0013}. Bootstrap resampling method showed that both the models were valid. Conclusion: Risk stratification solely based on preoperative imaging and laboratory factors was not inferior to that based on postoperative histopathologic risk factors in predicting early recurrence after curative resection in within Milan criteria single HCC patients.

Medulloblastoma in the Molecular Era

  • Kuzan-Fischer, Claudia Miranda;Juraschka, Kyle;Taylor, Michael D.
    • Journal of Korean Neurosurgical Society
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    • 제61권3호
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    • pp.292-301
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    • 2018
  • Medulloblastoma is the most common malignant brain tumor of childhood and remains a major cause of cancer related mortality in children. Significant scientific advancements have transformed the understanding of medulloblastoma, leading to the recognition of four distinct clinical and molecular subgroups, namely wingless (WNT), sonic hedgehog, group 3, and group 4. Subgroup classification combined with the recognition of subgroup specific molecular alterations has also led to major changes in risk stratification of medulloblastoma patients and these changes have begun to alter clinical trial design, in which the newly recognized subgroups are being incorporated as individualized treatment arms. Despite these recent advancements, identification of effective targeted therapies remains a challenge for several reasons. First, significant molecular heterogeneity exists within the four subgroups, meaning this classification system alone may not be sufficient to predict response to a particular therapy. Second, the majority of novel agents are currently tested at the time of recurrence, after which significant selective pressures have been exerted by radiation and chemotherapy. Recent studies demonstrate selection of tumor sub-clones that exhibit genetic divergence from the primary tumor, exist within metastatic and recurrent tumor populations. Therefore, tumor resampling at the time of recurrence may become necessary to accurately select patients for personalized therapy.

Molecular Investigation of Isocitrate Dehydrogenase Gene (IDH) Mutations in Gliomas: First Report of IDH2 Mutations in Indian Patients

  • Ranjan Das, Bibhu;Tangri, Rajiv;Ahmad, Firoz;Roy, Arnab;Patole, Kamlakar
    • Asian Pacific Journal of Cancer Prevention
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    • 제14권12호
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    • pp.7261-7264
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    • 2013
  • Recent genome wide sequencing has identified mutations in IDH1/IDH2 predominantly in grade II-III gliomas and secondary glioblastomas which are associated with favorable clinical outcome. These mutations have become molecular markers of significant diagnostic and prognostic relevance in the assessment of human gliomas. In the current study we evaluated IDH1 (R132) and IDH2 (R172) in 32 gliomas of various grades and tumor subtypes. Sequencing analysis revealed R132H mutations in 18.7% tumors, while none of the cases showed IDH2 (R172) mutations. The frequency of IDH1 mutations was higher in females (21.4%) than males (11.1%), and it was significantly higher in younger patients. Histological analyses demonstrated presence of necrosis and micro vascular proliferation in 69% and 75% respectively. Interestingly, IDH1 mutations were predominantly present in non-necrotic tumors as well as in cases showing microvascular proliferation. Of the six IDH1 positive cases, three were glioblastomas (IV), and one each were anaplastic oligoastrocytoma (III), anaplastic oligodendroglioma III (n=1) and diffuse astrocytoma. In conclusion, IDH1 mutations are quite frequent in Indian glioma patients while IDH2 mutations are not observed. Since IDH mutations are associated with good prognosis, their use in routine clinical practice will enable better risk stratification and management of glioma patients.

I-123 MIBG Cardiac SPECT의 임상적 적응증 (Clinical Application of I-123 MIBG Cardiac Imaging)

  • 강도영
    • 대한핵의학회지
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    • 제38권5호
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    • pp.331-337
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    • 2004
  • Cardiac neurotransmission imaging allows in vivo assessment of presynaptic reuptake, neurotransmitter storage and postsynaptic receptors. Among the various neurotransmitter, I-123 MIBG is most available and relatively well-established. Metaiodobenzylguanidine (MIBG) is an analogue of the false neurotransmitter guanethidine. It is taken up to adrenergic neurons by uptake-1 mechanism as same as norepinephrine. As tagged with I-123, it can be used to image sympathetic function in various organs including heart with planar or SPECT techniques. I-123 MIBG imaging has a unique advantage to evaluate myocardial neuronal activity in which the heart has no significant structural abnormality or even no functional derangement measured with other conventional examination. In patients with cardiomyopathy and heart failure, this imaging has most sensitive technique to predict prognosis and treatment response of betablocker or ACE inhibitor. In diabetic patients, it allow very early detection of autonomic neuropathy. In patients with dangerous arrhythmia such as ventricular tachycardia or fibrillation, MIBG imaging may be only an abnormal result among various exams. In patients with ischemic heart disease, sympathetic derangement may be used as the method of risk stratification. In heart transplanted patients, sympathetic reinnervation is well evaluated. Adriamycin-induced cardiotoxicity is detected earlier than ventricular dysfunction with sympathetic dysfunction. Neurodegenerative disorder such as Parkinson's disease or dementia with Lewy bodies has also cardiac sympathetic dysfunction. Noninvasive assessment of cardiac sympathetic nerve activity with I-123 MIBG imaging nay be improve understanding of the pathophysiology of cardiac disease and make a contribution to predict survival and therapy efficacy.

Clinical Features of Oxaliplatin Induced Hypersensitivity Reactions and Therapeutic Approaches

  • Bano, Nusrat;Najam, Rahila;Qazi, Faaiza;Mateen, Ahmed
    • Asian Pacific Journal of Cancer Prevention
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    • 제17권4호
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    • pp.1637-1641
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    • 2016
  • Oxaliplatin, a third generation novel platinum compound is the most effective first line chemotherapeutic agent for colorectal cancer (CRC) in combination with 5FU and leucovorin. It is indicated for pancreatic, gastric and testicular cancers combined with bevacuzimab, capecitabine, irinotecan and other cytotoxic agents. However, moderate to severe hypersensitivity reactions (HSR) during or after oxaliplatin infusion usually require cessation of chemotherapy or substitution of the key therapeutic drug which largely interferes with improved patient prognosis. This mini- review showcases recent and accepted opinions/approaches in oxaliplatin induced HSR management. Physicians and oncologists have varying attitudes regarding the decision to rechallenge the patient after an HSR experience, efficacy of desensitization protocols, effectiveness and selection of drugs for premedication and possibilities of cross sensitivity to other platinum agents (e.g. carboplatin). A brief insight into underlying molecular mechanisms and clinical manifestations of oxaliplatin induced HSR is offered. We have also discussed the management of oxaliplatin induced HSR and risk stratification for a successful and complete chemotherapeutic plan.

갑상선암에서 진행된 림프절 전이에 대한 수술적 치료 (Surgery for Advanced Nodal Metastasis in Thyroid Cancer)

  • 박민우;노영수
    • International journal of thyroidology
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    • 제11권2호
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    • pp.117-122
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    • 2018
  • Metastases to regional cervical lymph nodes occur frequently in patients with thyroid cancer. The appropriate management of regional lymph node is important to achieve good disease control and to classify risk stratification for adjuvant radioactive iodine. However, there are some occasions that neck dissection is difficult and embarrassing in thyroid cancer. Especially, extensive or unusual nodal metastases bring challenges and makes neck dissection more difficult. Carotid artery management is one of the most difficult procedure in neck dissection. The management of patients who have persistent or recurrent cervical metastasis involving the carotid artery has been controversial and treatment dilemma to the surgeon. Metastasis of well differentiated thyroid cancer to the retropharyngeal lymph nodes is rare but occasionally encountered. The complete surgical excision is usually recommended for retropharyngeal lymph node metastasis of well differentiated thyroid cancer. An extensive mediastinal dissection in advanced differentiated thyroid carcinoma is occasionally required. This paper will review recent reports of management of advanced nodal metastasis of thyroid cancer and share the author's personal experience.

Decision-Making in Transcatheter Edge-to-Edge Repair: Insights into Atrial Functional Mitral Regurgitation

  • Kim, Joon Bum
    • Journal of Chest Surgery
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    • 제54권6호
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    • pp.449-453
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    • 2021
  • The 2020 American College of Cardiology focused update on the mitral regurgitation (MR) pathway provides an excellent summary of the decision-making trees in the treatment of severe MR, in which 2 main branches of the flowchart are suggested depending on whether MR is primary or secondary. Surgery is suggested as preferable over transcatheter edge-to-edge repair (TEER) in primary MR that needs intervention. The decision-making for secondary MR generally prioritizes TEER over surgery according to the guidelines, but further stratification is necessary based on the pathophysiologic mechanisms of MR. TEER is probably the more suitable option in secondary MR caused by left ventricular dysfunction or dilatation, given the high perceived surgical risks, despite the lack of sufficient evidence in support of overt clinical benefits from surgical therapy in these patients. In atrial functional MR associated with atrial fibrillation (AF), however, concomitant ablation of AF seems to be a desirable option, as it has been demonstrated to be a key factor leading to improved survival, reduced stroke risk, and more durable mitral and tricuspid function in patients undergoing mitral surgery. Therefore, atrial functional MR requiring intervention may be best treated by surgical therapy that combines mitral repair and AF ablation in the majority of patients. This particular issue, however, needs further research to obtain scientific evidence to guide optimal management strategies.

비정상 상황에서 '놀람과 깜짝놀람의 영향(Surprise and Startle Effect)'이 헬리콥터 조종사의 작업부하(Workload)에 미치는 영향에 관한 연구 - 자격증명(자가용 및 사업용) 조종사의 비교 - (A Study on the Helicopter Pilot's Workload Influences by 'Surprise and Startle Effect' in the Abnormal Situation - Comparison by Pilot Certificate (Private and Commercial) -)

  • 이석종;이강석;박원태
    • 한국항공운항학회지
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    • 제30권2호
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    • pp.44-54
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    • 2022
  • An empirical analysis was conducted on the workload of helicopter pilots flying in high-risk flight environments such as ground obstacles and weather effects at low altitudes. To evaluate the workload, an independent sample t-test was performed using the NASA-TLX evaluation method most suitable for the aviation field, and the workload score was calculated by applying the analytical stratification method (AHP) to compare and analyze private and commercial pilots. There is a significant difference in mean between private and commercial pilots and the result of work load was obtained over 70%. This paper studied the 'surprise and startle effect' on the helicopter field for the first time. In the future, it is intended to contribute to the safe operation of helicopters by presenting a method for effective safety management by utilizing it in the field of education and training for helicopter pilots and providing basic data for preventing accidents caused by human error.