• Title/Summary/Keyword: Risk Processes

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Contingency and Management Reserves Estimation Method for Project Budget (프로젝트 예비비 편성 방법에 관한 연구)

  • Kwon, Hyukchun;Kang, Changwook
    • Journal of Korean Society of Industrial and Systems Engineering
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    • v.39 no.1
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    • pp.17-24
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    • 2016
  • Many organizations have transformed their business in order to survive and compete in the future. They generate projects by creating a vision, using strategies and objectives with funds aligning strategies and make efforts to complete them successfully because project success leads to business success. All projects have triple constraints such as scope, time, and cost to be completed. Project cost performance is a key factor to achieve project goals and which is mostly related with risks among various cost drivers. Projects require a cost estimation method to complete them within their budget and on time. An accurate budget cannot be estimated due to the uncertainties and risks. Thus some additional money should be funded in addition to the base budget as a contingency reserve for identified risks and a management reserve for unidentified risks. While research on contingency reserve for identified risks included in project budget baseline have been presented, research on management reserve for unidentified risks included in total project budget is still scarce. The lack of research on estimation method and role of the management reserve have made project managers little confidence to estimate project budget accurately with reasonable basis. This study proposes a practical model to estimate budgets including contingency and management reserves for not only project cost management but also to keep the balance of organization's total funds to maximize return on investments for project portfolio management. The advantages of the proposed model are demonstrated by its application to construction projects in Korea and the processes to apply this model for verification are also provided.

Integration Approach Environment and Health through Introduce to Health Impact Assessment (보건영향평가제도도입을 통한 보건과 환경의 통합적 접근방안 연구)

  • Kim Im-Soon;Han Sang-Wook;Kim Yoon-Shin;Kim Dae-Seon;Moon Jung-Suk;Lee Cheol-Min
    • Journal of environmental and Sanitary engineering
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    • v.19 no.4 s.54
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    • pp.34-47
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    • 2004
  • Although Environmental Impact Assessment(EIA) in Korea has been improved markedly over the past two decades, by enlarging the range of projects for assessment, instituting pub lic participation and environmental monitoring, and similar measures, it remains deficient in its coverage of human health in Environmental Impact Statements(EISs). Health Impact Assessment(HIA) can supply the necessary correctives. HIA is a combination of procedures, methods and tools by which a policy, programme, projects or legislative procedure may be judged for its potential effects on the health of a population, and the distribution of these effects within it. The principle of health protection is, however, established as a primary concern in EIA processes, in practice health is scarcely mentioned or the discussion is limited to a description of effects through the biophysical environment. The whole range of possible effects on health, including those mediated by socio-economic factors is often ignored, and no effective mechanism are in place to successfully incorporating health criteria and expertise into environmental, assessment(EA) that include ElA, SEA. These are foremost among the current issues facing EIA in Korea.

Linearity Verification of Measured Voltage Deterioration of High Voltage Cable based on Weibull Lifetime Index (와이불 수명지수에 의한 고전압 케이블의 전압열화 측정값의 선형성 확인)

  • Um, Kee-Hong;Lee, Kwan-Woo
    • The Journal of the Institute of Internet, Broadcasting and Communication
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    • v.16 no.1
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    • pp.227-232
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    • 2016
  • As the demand for electric power increases, all devices operating in power stations and all devices adopted in order to deliver distant loads need to be operating in perfect condition at the level of reliability expected by consumers. In general, the lifetime of cables used in delivering high power is declared to be 30 years from the time of production. Deterioration (which is the worsening of electric properties) starts from the very moment of operation. In spite of the reduction in reliability caused by deterioration, the reality is that cables often operate at considerable risk of accidents because the reliability of operation has not been diagnosed. We have invented a device to diagnose the deterioration processes of high-voltage power cables. It has been installed and is currently operating at Korea Western Power Co., Ltd., located in Chungnam, Korea. In previously published papers we have shown graphs obtained by plotting insulation resistances versus time, through analyzing the data extracted from operating cables using the devices we have invented. In this paper, we verify that the previously plotted graphs agree with the life time index of Weibull distribution of probability.

Heterogeneous Lifelog Mining Model in Health Big-data Platform (헬스 빅데이터 플랫폼에서 이기종 라이프로그 마이닝 모델)

  • Kang, JI-Soo;Chung, Kyungyong
    • Journal of the Korea Convergence Society
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    • v.9 no.10
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    • pp.75-80
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    • 2018
  • In this paper, we propose heterogeneous lifelog mining model in health big-data platform. It is an ontology-based mining model for collecting user's lifelog in real-time and providing healthcare services. The proposed method distributes heterogeneous lifelog data and processes it in real time in a cloud computing environment. The knowledge base is reconstructed by an upper ontology method suitable for the environment constructed based on the heterogeneous ontology. The restructured knowledge base generates inference rules using Jena 4.0 inference engines, and provides real-time healthcare services by rule-based inference methods. Lifelog mining constructs an analysis of hidden relationships and a predictive model for time-series bio-signal. This enables real-time healthcare services that realize preventive health services to detect changes in the users' bio-signal by exploring negative or positive correlations that are not included in the relationships or inference rules. The performance evaluation shows that the proposed heterogeneous lifelog mining model method is superior to other models with an accuracy of 0.734, a precision of 0.752.

Is FDG -PET-CT A Valuable Tool in Prediction of Persistent Disease in Head and Neck Cancer

  • Uzel, Esengul Kocak;Ekmekcioglu, Ozgul;Elicin, Olgun;Halac, Metin;Uzel, Omer Erol
    • Asian Pacific Journal of Cancer Prevention
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    • v.14 no.8
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    • pp.4847-4851
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    • 2013
  • Objectives: To evaluate accuracy of FDG-PET CT in prediction of persistent disease in head and neck cancer cases and to determine prognostic value of metabolic tumor response. Materials and Methods: Between 2009 and 2011, 46 patients with squamous cell carcinoma of head and neck receiving PET-CT were treated with definitive radiotherapy, with or without chemotherapy. There were 29 nasopharyngeal, 11 hypopharyngeal, 3 oropharyngeal and 3 laryngeal cancer patients, with a median age of 50.5 years (range 16-84), 32 males and 14 females. All patients were evaluated with PET-CT median 3-5 months (2.4-9.4) after completion of radiotherapy. Results: After a median 20 months of follow up, complete metabolic response was observed in 63% of patients. Suspicious residual uptake was present in 10.9% and residual metabolic uptake in 26.0% of patients. The overall sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive value and negative predictive value of FDG-PET-CT for detection of residual disease was 91% and 81%, 64% and 96% respectively. Two year LRC was 95% in complete responders while it was 34% in non-complete responders. Conclusions: FDG PET CT is a valuable tool for assessment of treatment response, especially in patients at high risk of local recurrence, and also as an indicator of prognosis. Definitely more precise criteria are required for assessment of response, there being no clear cut uptake value indicating residual disease. Futhermore, repair processes of normal tissue may consume glucose which appear as increased uptake in control FDG PET CT.

Relationships between Malignant Melanoma and Chromosome Damage in Human Peripheral Blood Lymphocytes

  • Narin, Abdullah;Tuncay, Orta
    • Asian Pacific Journal of Cancer Prevention
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    • v.13 no.10
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    • pp.5229-5232
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    • 2012
  • The incidence of malignant melanoma increases with age. One significiant effect of aging processes is an accumulation of oxidative damage in the genetical material. In this study, the relationship between malignant melanoma and damage in chromosomes and proliferative effectiveness of human peripheral lymphocytes were investigated by the micronucleus (MN) technique. A total of 15 malignant melanoma patients and appropriately matching 15 healthy controls were involved in the study. MN frequencies and proliferative indexes (PI) after non toxic levels of hydrogen peroxide treatment were also measured to determine damaging effect of oxidative stress in genome in addition to measuring the spontenous levels of micronuclei and PI. The patient group had a significantly higher rate of spontaneous MN than the control group (p<0.01). After treatment with $H_2O_2$, MN frequencies in the patient group was significantly decreased (p<0.01) although there was no difference between the treated and untreated results of control group (p=0.29). There was also difference (p<0.01) between the MN frequencies of the patient and the control group either in the spontaneous levels or in the $H_2O_2$ treated groups. The same significant difference persisted when the PI values were compared between patient and control groups. Increase in the MN frequency in patients could mean the alterations in the chromosomal structure which may lead to the chromosome instability and therefore genetic susceptibility to cancer. This increased number of micronuclei can also be used for cytological marker in identifying high risk cases for malignant melanoma.

Combined Genotype Analyses of Precursor miRNA-196a2 and -499a Variants with Hepatic and Renal Cancer Susceptibility- a Preliminary Study

  • Toraih, Eman A;Fawzy, Manal S;Elgazzaz, Mona G;Hussein, Mohammad H;Shehata, Rasha H;Daoud, Hisham G
    • Asian Pacific Journal of Cancer Prevention
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    • v.17 no.7
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    • pp.3369-3375
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    • 2016
  • MicroRNAs, a novel class of small non-coding RNAs, are key players in many cellular processes, including cell proliferation, differentiation, invasion and regeneration. Tissue and circulatory microRNAs could serve as useful clinical biomarkers and deregulated expression levels have been observed in various cancers. Gene variants may alter microRNA processing and maturation. Thus, we aimed to investigate the association of MIR-196a2 rs11614913 (C/T), MIR-499a rs3746444 (A/G) polymorphisms and their combination with cancer susceptibility in an Egyptian population. Sixty five renal cell carcinoma (RCC) and 60 hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) patients and 150 controls were enrolled in the study. They were genotyped using real-time polymerase chain reaction technology. Both $miR-196a2^*T$ and $miR-499a*G$ were associated with RCC risk, but only $miR-196a^*T$ was associated with HCC development. Carriage of the homozygote combinations ($MIR196a2^*TT+MIR499a^*AA$) and ($MIR196a2^*CC+MIR499a^*GG$) was associated with 25 and 48 fold elevation of likelhood to develop RCC, respectively. The miR-196a2 SNP was also linked with larger tumor size in RCC and advanced tumor stage in HCC. miR-196a2 and miR-499a combined genotypes were associated with RCC and HCC. Further functional analysis of SNPs is required to confirm relationships between genotypes and phenotypes.

Adolescents resilience and learning motives -External protective factors and Intrinsic learning motives- (청소년 탄력성과 학습동기 -외적보호요인과 내재적 학습동기-)

  • Kim, Gil-Young;Cho, Sung-Je
    • Journal of the Korea Academia-Industrial cooperation Society
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    • v.14 no.6
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    • pp.2717-2726
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    • 2013
  • This study was conducted in order to analyze the theories behind external protective factors. In particular, it sought to understand the influence of adolescent resilience on learning motivation. Students of a public high school located in Gyeonggi Province participated in various questionnaires during the week of March 5th, 2013. Frequency analysis, one-way ANOVA (analysis of variance), correlation analysis, and multiple regression analysis were utilized to analyze the acquired data. The results revealed that when family relationships were strong and local community expectations were high, the students' 'attention to implementation processes,' one aspect of intrinsic motivation to learn, was also high. 'Suitable levels of adventurousness and risk-taking,' another aspect of intrinsic motivation to learn, was high when school expectations were also high and when relationships at the school level were weaker. The study results verified that the theory that intrinsic motivation to learn can be enhanced by strengthening external factors to protect adolescent resilience. This study is significant in that it establishes theoretical grounds to address adolescent issues, to develop programs to prevent school dropouts, and to apply the results to future legislative policies.

A Study on the Characteristic and Development of Art Furniture Applied with High Technology (아트퍼니처에서 하이 테크놀로지 활용의 특징 및 전개 연구)

  • Choi, Byung Hoon;Jung, Jaenah
    • Journal of the Korea Furniture Society
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    • v.27 no.3
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    • pp.175-184
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    • 2016
  • Art Furniture is a terminology of creative and developed activity related Art in the field of furniture design. In a broad sense, the extent of Art furniture reaches from humanities to technology because Art includes them. Due to Postmodernism, designers who were involving Art furniture started to fuse various studies including high technology to achieve their own goals. To illustrate with the characteristic of high technology, I compare between low technology and high technology. Even though high technology are used both commercial furniture and Art furniture, the latter has been utilized high technology in a more creative and experimental way to develop experimental furniture design. In contrast, in order to earn economic profit, there is no unnecessary risk for commercial furniture. Considering information revolution which is deeply related with high technology, Art furniture designers could get information easily about other fields and make multiple connections of different kinds of people and markets. As a result, a combination between Art furniture and high technology has distinctive features. At first, high technology was applied to craft among Dutch furniture designers. After that, designers began to lay out the method of high technology and pushed the boundary of Art furniture thanks to experts and scientists. In addition, there was a designer who have conducted a series of research as a scientist adopting scientific methodology. In doing so, Joris Laarman could obtain a revolutionized work which could contribute society. In conclusion, combining Art furniture and high technology leads the definition of design from deciding physical shapes to directing and organizing processes.

A FRAM-based Systemic Investigation of a Rail Accident Involving Human Errors (인적오류가 관여된 철도 사고의 체계적 분석을 위한 FRAM의 활용)

  • Choi, Eun-Bi;Ham, Dong-Han
    • Journal of the Korea Safety Management & Science
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    • v.22 no.1
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    • pp.23-32
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    • 2020
  • There has been a significant decline in the number of rail accidents in Korea since system safety management activities were introduced. Nonetheless, analyzing and preventing human error-related accidents is still an important issue in railway industry. As a railway system is increasingly automated and intelligent, the mechanism and process of an accident occurrence are more and more complicated. It is now essential to consider a variety of factors and their intricate interactions in the analysis of rail accidents. However, it has proved that traditional accident models and methods based on a linear cause-effect relationship are inadequate to analyze and to assess accidents in complex systems such as railway systems. In order to supplement the limitations of traditional safety methods, recently some systemic safety models and methods have been developed. Of those, FRAM(Functional Resonance Analysis Method) has been recognized as one of the most useful methods for analyzing accidents in complex systems. It reflects the concepts of performance adjustment and performance variability in a system, which are fundamental to understanding the processes of an accident in complex systems. This study aims to apply FRAM to the analysis of a rail accident involving human errors, which occurred recently in South Korea. Through the application of FRAM, we found that it can be a useful alternative to traditional methods in the analysis and assessment of accidents in complex systems. In addition, it was also found that FRAM can help analysts understand the interactions between functional elements of a system in a systematic manner.