• Title/Summary/Keyword: Risk Processes

Search Result 682, Processing Time 0.027 seconds

Comparison of methods of approximating option prices with Variance gamma processes (Variance gamma 확률과정에서 근사적 옵션가격 결정방법의 비교)

  • Lee, Jaejoong;Song, Seongjoo
    • The Korean Journal of Applied Statistics
    • /
    • v.29 no.1
    • /
    • pp.181-192
    • /
    • 2016
  • We consider several methods to approximate option prices with correction terms to the Black-Scholes option price. These methods are able to compute option prices from various risk-neutral distributions using relatively small data and simple computation. In this paper, we compare the performance of Edgeworth expansion, A-type and C-type Gram-Charlier expansions, a method of using Normal inverse gaussian distribution, and an asymptotic method of using nonlinear regression through simulation experiments and real KOSPI200 option data. We assume the variance gamma model in the simulation experiment, which has a closed-form solution for the option price among the pure jump $L{\acute{e}}vy$ processes. As a result, we found that methods to approximate an option price directly from the approximate price formula are better than methods to approximate option prices through the approximate risk-neutral density function. The method to approximate option prices by nonlinear regression showed relatively better performance among those compared.

Measurement of Neutron Production Double-differential Cross-sections on Carbon Bombarded with 430 MeV/Nucleon Carbon Ions

  • Itashiki, Yutaro;Imahayashi, Youichi;Shigyo, Nobuhiro;Uozumi, Yusuke;Satoh, Daiki;Kajimoto, Tsuyoshi;Sanami, Toshiya;Koba, Yusuke;Matsufuji, Naruhiro
    • Journal of Radiation Protection and Research
    • /
    • v.41 no.4
    • /
    • pp.344-349
    • /
    • 2016
  • Background: Carbon ion therapy has achieved satisfactory results. However, patients have a risk to get a secondary cancer. In order to estimate the risk, it is essential to understand particle transportation and nuclear reactions in the patient's body. The particle transport Monte Carlo simulation code is a useful tool to understand them. Since the code validation for heavy ion incident reactions is not enough, the experimental data of the elementary reaction processes are needed. Materials and Methods: We measured neutron production double-differential cross-sections (DDXs) on a carbon bombarded with 430 MeV/nucleon carbon beam at PH2 beam line of HIMAC facility in NIRS. Neutrons produced in the target were measured with NE213 liquid organic scintillators located at six angles of 15, 30, 45, 60, 75, and $90^{\circ}$. Results and Discussion: Neutron production double-differential cross-sections for carbon bombarded with 430 MeV/nucleon carbon ions were measured by the time-of-flight method with NE213 liquid organic scintillators at six angles of 15, 30, 45, 60, 75, and $90^{\circ}$. The cross sections were obtained from 1 MeV to several hundred MeV. The experimental data were compared with calculated results obtained by Monte Carlo simulation codes PHITS, Geant4, and FLUKA. Conclusion: PHITS was able to reproduce neutron production for elementary processes of carbon-carbon reaction precisely the best of three codes.

Towards UAV-based bridge inspection systems: a review and an application perspective

  • Chan, Brodie;Guan, Hong;Jo, Jun;Blumenstein, Michael
    • Structural Monitoring and Maintenance
    • /
    • v.2 no.3
    • /
    • pp.283-300
    • /
    • 2015
  • Visual condition inspections remain paramount to assessing the current deterioration status of a bridge and assigning remediation or maintenance tasks so as to ensure the ongoing serviceability of the structure. However, in recent years, there has been an increasing backlog of maintenance activities. Existing research reveals that this is attributable to the labour-intensive, subjective and disruptive nature of the current bridge inspection method. Current processes ultimately require lane closures, traffic guidance schemes and inspection equipment. This not only increases the whole-of-life costs of the bridge, but also increases the risk to the travelling public as issues affecting the structural integrity may go unaddressed. As a tool for bridge condition inspections, Unmanned Aerial Vehicles (UAVs) or, drones, offer considerable potential, allowing a bridge to be visually assessed without the need for inspectors to walk across the deck or utilise under-bridge inspection units. With current inspection processes placing additional strain on the existing bridge maintenance resources, the technology has the potential to significantly reduce the overall inspection costs and disruption caused to the travelling public. In addition to this, the use of automated aerial image capture enables engineers to better understand a situation through the 3D spatial context offered by UAV systems. However, the use of UAV for bridge inspection involves a number of critical issues to be resolved, including stability and accuracy of control, and safety to people. SLAM (Simultaneous Localisation and Mapping) is a technique that could be used by a UAV to build a map of the bridge underneath, while simultaneously determining its location on the constructed map. While there are considerable economic and risk-related benefits created through introducing entirely new ways of inspecting bridges and visualising information, there also remain hindrances to the wider deployment of UAVs. This study is to provide a context for use of UAVs for conducting visual bridge inspections, in addition to addressing the obstacles that are required to be overcome in order for the technology to be integrated into current practice.

Analyzing the Status of Industrial Accidents and Investigation of Improve Methods of Hazard Factors in Franchise Industry (프랜차이즈 산업의 산업재해 현황 및 유해위험 요인에 대한 개선방안 조사)

  • A Ran Lee;Jung Hwan Byun;Kyung-Sun Lee
    • Journal of the Korean Society of Safety
    • /
    • v.39 no.3
    • /
    • pp.36-49
    • /
    • 2024
  • Article 79 of the Occupational Safety and Health Act mandates franchise headquarters with over 200 franchises to implement industrial accident prevention measures. Notably, the franchise business information provision system designates restaurants and wholesale/retail as the primary categories for information disclosure, with convenience stores classified as secondary. This study aims to identify law-regulated franchise headquarters and franchises and analyze industrial accidents within these sectors. Furthermore, it seeks to investigate adverse risk factors for individual processes across major industries. Pertinent franchise headquarters and franchises were discerned using the Fair Trade Commission's business information system. Data regarding the status of industrial accidents, as published by the Ministry of Employment and Labor, was leveraged in the analysis of industrial accidents. Additionally, a survey was conducted to derive detrimental factors for each process in major industries. The inquiry revealed a total of 7 wholesale and retail franchise headquarters subject to the law, along with 126 within the restaurant industry. Overall, there were 50,488 franchises in the wholesale and retail sector, and 71,283 in the restaurant business. Risk factors and improvement measures for industrial processes were determined for five industries: convenience stores, Korean food restaurants, coffee places, pizza eateries, and chicken vendors. Locating the currently developed safety and health program establishment guide proves to be challenging. Moreover, utilizing it can be difficult due to the industry-specific content, further complicated by the prevalence of franchise stores featuring numerous small businesses. Therefore, this study highlights the imperative need to develop guidelines that incorporate preventive measures tailored to each industry.

NATURAL ATTENUATION OF HAZARDOUS INORGANIC COMPONENTS: GEOCHEMISTRY PROSPECTIVE (유해 무기질의 자연정화 : 지화학적 고찰)

  • Lee, Suk-Young;Lee, Chae-Young;Yun, Jun-Ki
    • Proceedings of the KSEEG Conference
    • /
    • 2002.06a
    • /
    • pp.81-100
    • /
    • 2002
  • While most of regulatory communities in abroad recognize ' 'natural attenuation " to include degradation, dispersion, dilution, sorption (including precipitation and transformation), and volatilization as governing Processes, regulators prefer "degradation" because this mechanism destroys the contaminant of concern. Unfortunately, true degradation only applies to organic contaminants and short- lived radionuclides, and leaves most metals and long-lived radionuclides. The natural attenuation Processes may reduce the potential risk Posed by site contaminants in three ways: (i)contaminants could be converted to a less toxic form througy destructive processes such as biodegradation or abiotic transformations; (ii) potential exposure levels may be reduced by lowering concentrations (dilution and dispersion); and (iii) contaminant mobility and bioavailability may be reduced by sorption to geomedia. In this review, authors will focus will focul on "sorption" among the natural attenuation processes of hazardous inorganic contaminants including radionuclides. Note though that sorption and transformation processes of inorganic contaminants in the natural setting could be influenced by biotic activities but our discussion would limit only to geochemical reactions involved in the natural attenuation. All of the geochemical reactions have been studied in-depth by numerous researchers for many years to understand "retardation" process of contaminants in the geomedia. The most common approach for estimating retardation is the determination of distrubution coefficiendts ($K_{d}$) of contaminants using parametric or mechanistic models. As typocally used in fate and contaminant transport calculations such as predictive models of the natural attenuation, the $K_{d}$ is defined as the ratio of the contaminant concentration in the surrounding aqueous solution when the system is at equilibrium. Unfortunately, generic or default $K_{d}$ values can result in significant error when used to predict contaminant migration rate and to select a site remediation alternative. Thus, to input the best $K_{d}$ value in the contaminant transport model, it is essential that important geochemical processes affecting the transport should be identified and understood. Precipitation/dissolution and adsorption/desorption are considered the most important geochemical processes affecting the interaction of inorganic and radionuclide contaminants with geomedia at the near and far field, respectively. Most of contaminants to be discussed in this presentation are relatively immobile, i.e., have very high $K_{d}$ values under natural geochemical environments. Unfortunately, the obvious containment in a source area may not be good enough to qualify as monitored natural attenuation site unless owner demonstrate the efficacy if institutional controls that were put in place to protect potential receptors. In this view, natural attenuation as a remedial alternative for some of sites contaminated by hazardous-inorganic components is regulatory and public acceptance issues rather than scientific issue.

  • PDF

Endocrine Disrupting Effects of Lead on the Ontogeny of Oryzias Latipes (송사리수정란을 이용한 납의 내분비계장애에 관한 연구)

  • Park, Kwang-Sik;Choi, Pil-Son;Lee, Sang-Hyeop;Lee, Chul-Woo;Rhu, Ji-Sung;Choi, Sung-Su;Rhu, Hong-Il;Choi, Doug-Il
    • Toxicological Research
    • /
    • v.14 no.3
    • /
    • pp.379-384
    • /
    • 1998
  • Endocrine disruptor is an exogenous substance that changes endocrine function and causes adverse effects at the level of the organism, its progeny, and/or (sub)populations of the organisms. Purported adverse effects are cancers, declines in reproductive health, developmental learning disabilities in humans, and declining populations, altered morphology, physiology or behavior in wildlife. In these days, expert groups on chemicals in IPCS, IFCS and OECD are intensively discussing the identification of endocrine disruptors and the proper management of those chemicals. In this study, we screened the endocrine disrupting effects of lead using fertilized eggs of Oryzias latipes. In brief, the eggs were exposed to lead with different concentrations at Ringer's solution, and the mortality, the incidence of deformation, the body movement and the hatching success were determined after incubation. The histological analysis of normal and deformed larvae was also carried out. Compared to control, the mortality and the heart rate of eggs and/or larvae increased, but the hatching success and the tail movement decreased. The morphological observation showed the asymmetrical deformation of larvae and the distortion of spinal cord. The absorption of the liquid in yolk sac was hindered. The adverse effects of lead in the ontogeny of fertilized eggs of Oryzias latipes seemed to be stronger in pH5.6 than in pH7.5 solution. In summary, lead showed adverse effects on the ontogeny of fish fertilized eggs plays critical role in regulating biological systems and controlling developmental processes as an endocrine disruptor.

  • PDF

Study on the Impact of XAI Explanation Levels on Cognitive Load and User Satisfaction : Focusing on Risk Levels in Financial AI Systems

  • No-Ah Han;Yoo-Jin Hwang;Zoon-Ky Lee
    • Journal of the Korea Society of Computer and Information
    • /
    • v.29 no.9
    • /
    • pp.49-59
    • /
    • 2024
  • In this paper, we examine the impact of XAI explanations on user satisfaction and cognitive load according to the risk levels defined in the EU AI Act. XAI aims to make the internal processes of complex AI models understandable to humans and is widely used in both academia and industry. The importance and value of XAI are continuously rising; however, there has been little research determining the necessary level of explanation according to AI system risk levels. To address this gap, we designed an experiment with 120 participants, divided into 8 groups, each exposed to one of four levels of explainability(XAI) within low-risk and high-risk financial AI systems. A quantitative approach was used to measure cognitive load, user satisfaction, mental effort, and the clarity of the material design across the different AI system interfaces. The results indicate that the amount of information in explanations significantly affects cognitive load and user satisfaction, depending on the risk level. However, the impact of the level of explanation on user satisfaction was mediated by the material design, which determined how easily the information was understood. This research provides practical, regulatory, and academic contributions by offering guidelines for determining the necessary level of explanation based on AI system risk levels.

Quantitative Risk Analysis of a Pervaporation Process for Concentrating Hydrogen Peroxide (과산화수소 농축을 위한 투과증발공정의 정량적 위험성 분석)

  • Jung, Ho Jin;Yoon, Ik Keun;Choi, Soo Hyoung
    • Korean Chemical Engineering Research
    • /
    • v.52 no.6
    • /
    • pp.750-754
    • /
    • 2014
  • Quantitative risk analysis has been performed for a pervaporation process for production of high test peroxide. Potential main accidents are explosion and fire caused by a decomposition reaction. As the target process has a laboratory scale, the consequence is considered to belong to Category 3. An event tree has been developed as a model for occurrence of a decomposition reaction in the target process. The probability functions of the accident causes have been established based on the frequency data of similar events. Using the constructed model, the failure rate has been calculated. The result indicates that additional safety devices are required in order to achieve an acceptable risk level, i.e. an accident frequency less than $10^{-4}/yr$. Therefore, a layer of protection analysis has been applied. As a result, it is suggested to introduce inherently safer design to avoid catalytic reaction, a safety instrumented function to prevent overheating, and a relief system that prevents explosion even if a decomposition reaction occurs. The proposed method is expected to contribute to developing safety management systems for various chemical processes including concentration of hydrogen peroxide.

Association of lnc-LAMC2-1:1 rs2147578 and CASC8 rs10505477 Polymorphisms with Risk of Childhood Acute Lymphoblastic Leukemia

  • Hashemi, Mohammad;Bahari, Gholamreza;Naderi, Majid;Bojd, Simin Sadeghi;Taheri, Mohsen
    • Asian Pacific Journal of Cancer Prevention
    • /
    • v.17 no.11
    • /
    • pp.4985-4989
    • /
    • 2016
  • Long non-coding RNAs (lncRNAs) are a novel class of non-protein coding RNAs that are involved in a wide variety of biological processes. There are limited data regarding the impact of lnc-LAMC2-1:1 rs2147578 as well as CASC8 rs10505477 T>C polymorphisms on cancer development. Here we examined for the first time whether rs2147578 and rs10505477 polymorphisms are associated with childhood acute lymphoblastic leukemia (ALL) in a total of 110 cases and 120 healthy controls. Genotyping was achieved by the polymerase chain reaction-restriction fragment length polymorphism (PCR-RFLP) method. The rs2147578 variant increased the risk of ALL in codominant (OR=4.33, 95%CI=2.00-9.37, p<0.0001, CG vs CC, and OR=5.81, 95%CI=2.30-14.69, p=0.0002, GG vs CC), dominant (OR=4.63, 95%CI=2.18-9.86, p<0.0001, CG+GG vs CC), overdominant (OR=1.74, 95%CI=1.02-2.97, p=0.0444, CG vs CC+GG) and allele (OR=1.91, 95%CI=1.32-2.77, p=0.0008, G vs C) inheritance models tested. No significant association was found between the CASC8 rs10505477 T>C variant and risk of childhood ALL. In conclusion, the present study revealed that the lnc-LAMC2-1:1 rs2147578 polymorphism may be a risk factor for developing childhood ALL. Further studies with larger sample sizes with different ethnicities are now required to confirm our findings.

Polymorphisms in DNA Repair Genes and Risk of Glioma and Meningioma

  • Luo, Ke-Qin;Mu, Shi-Qing;Wu, Zhong-Xue;Shi, Yi-Ni;Peng, Ji-Cai
    • Asian Pacific Journal of Cancer Prevention
    • /
    • v.14 no.1
    • /
    • pp.449-452
    • /
    • 2013
  • Polymorphisms in DNA repair genes have been shown to influence DNA repair processes and to modify cancer susceptibility. Here we conducted a case-control study to assess the role of potential SNPs of DNA repair genes on the risk of glioma and meningioma. We included 297 cases and 458 cancer-free controls. Genotyping of XRCC1 Gln399Arg, XRCC1 Arg194Trp, XRCC2 Arg188His, XRCC3 Thr241Met, XRCC4 Ala247Ser, ERCC1 Asn118Asp, ERCC2 Lys751Gln and ERCC5 Asp1558His were performed in a 384-well plate format on the Sequenom MassARRAY platform. XRCC1 Arg194Trp (rs1799782) and ERCC2 Asp312Asn rs1799793 did not follow the HWE in control group, and genotype distributions of XRCC1 Gln399Arg rs25487, XRCC2 Arg188His rs3218536 and ERCC2 Asp312Asn rs1799793 were significantly different between cases and controls (P<0.05). We found XRCC1 399G/G, XRCC1 194 T/T and XRCC3 241T/T were associated with a higher risk when compared with the wild-type genotype. For ERCC5 Asp1558His, we found G/G genotype was associated with elevated susceptibility. In conclusion, our study has shown that XRCC1 Gln399Arg, XRCC1 Arg194Trp, XRCC3 Thr241Met and ERCC5 Asp1558His are associated with risk of gliomas and meningiomas. This finding could be useful in identifying the susceptibility genes for these cancers.