• Journal of Information Technology Applications and Management
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• 제22권2호
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• pp.201-217
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• 2015

In this paper, we report computational testing result to examine the validity of firm's bankruptcy risk estimation through quantification of supply chain risk. Supply chain risk in this study refers to upstream supply risk and downstream demand risk, To assess the firm's risk affected by supply chain risk, we adopt unit of analysis as industry level. since supply and demand relationships of the firm could be generalized by the industry input-output table and the availability of various valid economic indicators which are chronologically calculated. The research model to estimate firm's risk level is the linear regression model to assess the industry bankruptcy risk estimation of the focal firm's industry with the independent variables which could quantitatively reflect demand and supply risk of the industry. The publicly announced macro economic indicators are selected as the candidate independent variables and validated through empirical testing. To validate our approach, in this paper, we confined our research scope to steel industry sector and its related industry sectors, and implemented the research model. The empirical testing results provide useful insights to further refine the research model as the valid forecasting mechanism to capture firm's future risk estimation more accurately by adopting supply chain industry risk aspect, in conjunction with firm's financial and other managerial factors.

• 한국정보시스템학회지:정보시스템연구
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• 제28권2호
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• pp.129-152
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• 2019

Purpose The purpose of this study is to empirically identify the risky behavior of mobile device users using the Internet of Things on a situational perspective. Design/methodology/approach This study made a design of the research model based on model of the determinants of risk behavior. Data were collected through a survey including hypothetical scenario. SmartPLS 2.0 was used for the structural model analysis and t-test was conducted to compare the between normal and situational behavior. Findings The results were as follows. First, the central roles of risk propriety and risk perception were verified empirically. Second, we identified the role of locus of control as a new factor of impact on risky behavior. Third, mobile risk propensity has been shown to increase risk perception. Fouth, it has been shown that risk perception does not directly affect risky behavior and reduce the relationship between mobile risk propensity and risk behavior. According to the empirical analysis result, Determinants of risk behavior for mobile users were identified based on a theoretical framework. And it raised the need to pay attention to the impact of locus of control on risk behavior in the IS security field. It provided direction to the approach to risky behavior of mobile device users. In addition, this study confirmed that there was a possibility of taking risky behavior in the actual decision-making.

• Journal of Preventive Medicine and Public Health
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• 제38권2호
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• pp.132-140
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• 2005

Objectives: To propose a risk-adjustment model from insurance claims data, and analyze the changes in cesarean section rates of healthcare organizations after adjusting for risk distribution. Methods: The study sample included delivery claims data from January to September, 2003. A risk-adjustment model was built using the 1st quarter data, and the 2nd and 3rd quarter data were used for a validation test. Patients' risk factors were adjusted using a logistic regression analysis. The c-statistic and Hosmer-Lemeshow test were used to evaluate the performance of the risk-adjustment model. Crude, predicted and risk-adjusted rates were calculated, and compared to analyze the effects of the adjustment. Results: Nine risk factors (malpresentation, eclampsia, malignancy, multiple pregnancies, problems in the placenta, previous Cesarean section, older mothers, bleeding and diabetes) were included in the final risk-adjustment model, and were found to have statistically significant effects on the mode of delivery. The c-statistic (0.78) and Hosmer-Lemeshow test ($x^2$=0.60, p=0.439) indicated a good model performance. After applying the 2nd and 3rd quarter data to the model, there were no differences in the c-statistic and Hosmer-Lemeshow $x^2$. Also, risk factor adjustment led to changes in the ranking of hospital Cesarean section rates, especially in tertiary and general hospitals. Conclusion: This study showed a model performance, using medical record abstracted data, was comparable to the results of previous studies. Insurance claims data can be used for identifying areas where risk factors should be adjusted. The changes in the ranking of hospital Cesarean section rates implied that crude rates can mislead people and therefore, the risk should be adjusted before the rates are released to the public. The proposed risk-adjustment model can be applied for the fair comparisons of the rates between hospitals.

• 한국지반공학회:학술대회논문집
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• 한국지반공학회 2006년도 추계 학술발표회
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• pp.509-514
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• 2006

Considering the risk management, there are many examples and various studies for the corporation risk. However, I have never seen the project risk management that applied a construction site for practical approach. Therefore, I have developed a chart (I-Chart) for the project risk management, and also built a model (I-Chart scenario analysis) that I could use. I applied this model to container yard reclaimed land in harbor construction with approaching of geotechnical engineering.

• 한국건설관리학회논문집
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• 제2권2호
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• pp.98-108
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• 2001

본 연구에서는 프로젝트의 성공적 이행을 보장하기 위하여 리스크분석모델을 제안하였다. 리스크분석 모델은 CRAS라 칭하였으며, 시공자가 RBS를 통해서 리스크를 체계적으로 확인하고 분석하고 관리하는데 도움을 줄 수 있도록 설계되었다. 제안된 CRAS모델은 크게 3단계의 분석과정으로 이루어진다. 첫 단계는 시공자가 프로젝트와 관련된 리스크를 확인하고 분석해서 입찰여부를 판단하는 것이다. 두 번째 단계는 영향도, 의사결정나무, Monte Carlo 시뮬레이션을 이용하여 리스크를 정량적으로 평가하여 예비비를 산정하는 것이며, 세 번째 단계는 확률 노드, 확률 칼렌다 등의 일정관리기법과 시뮬레이션을 통해 공사일정상의 리스크를 파악하여 프로젝트의 성공여부를 판단하는 것이다. 결과적으로 본 모델은 시공자로 하여금 프로젝트에 내재된 리스크가 프로젝트의 공기와 공사비에 미치는 영향을 정량적으로 평가할 수 있도록 함으로서 시공자가 이들 리스크를 제거하는데 필요한 여러 대안을 고려할 수 있도록 하였다.

• 대한안전경영과학회:학술대회논문집
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• 대한안전경영과학회 2004년도 춘계학술대회
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• pp.271-276
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• 2004

The risk assessment model is an important subsystem for effective establishment and operation of EMS (environment management system). In case of poor risk assessment long-term and large-scale failure expense might be brought. Managing policy, target and other indices based on risk assessment can guarantee successful EMS. In this paper, we aim at comparative analysis of various risk methods and propose an alternative risk assessment model for EMS.

• 한국경제지리학회지
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• 제12권4호
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• pp.665-680
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• 2009

본 연구의 목적은 위험조정모형을 활용하여 미국 REITs의 부동산 유형별 성과 특성을 분석하는 것이다. 특히, REITs의 성과가 성장기, 정체기, 금융위기기에 각각 어떻게 차별적인 지를 살펴본다. 분석결과를 요약하면 다음과 같다. 첫째로, 초과 종합수익률의 관점에서 REITs 부동산 유형별 성과를 보면, 1기와 2기에는 정(+)의 초과 성과가 발생한 반면, 3기에는 부(-)의 초과 성과가 나타난다. 금융위기 시기인 3기의 경우, 부(-)의 수익률이 발생한 뿐만 아니라 수익률의 변동성도 큰 것으로 나타난다. 둘째로, 자본자산가격결정모형에 의해 추정한 베타값을 보면, <분석모형 (1)>의 결과에서 평균적인 REITs에 비해 호텔, 지역몰, 상업모기지는 고위험-고수익 특성을, 자유입지, 아파트, 조립식주택, 특수목적 부동산은 저위험-저수익 특성을 가진 것으로 나타난다. <분석모형 (2)>의 결과를 보면, 금융위기 하에서 투자상품으로서의 REITs의 성격이 저위험-저수익에서 고위험-고수익으로 변화하고 있다. 마지막으로, 위험조정모형 추정결과를 보면, <분석모형 (1)>과 <분석모형 (2)> 모두 체계적 위험은 요구수익률에 정(+)의 영향을 미치는 반면, 비체계적위험은 요구수익률에 부(-)의 영향을 미치는 것으로 나타난다. 위험조정모형을 통해 도출된 요구수익률을 실제수익률과 비교한 결과, 헬쓰케어 부문이 가장 높은 정(+)의 성과를 보이고 있다.

• 한국건설관리학회논문집
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• 제6권6호
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• pp.81-89
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• 2005

건설사업은 위험에 대한 노출수위가 크기 때문에 프로젝트의 공정을 관리하는 적극적인 위험관리가 강하게 요구되고 있으나 현재의 일반적인 공정관리기법은 위험인지 및 위험분석을 하기에는 부적합한 것이 사실이다. 따라서 본 연구는 현재의 공정관리 문제점을 개선하기 위한 공정관리 모델의 개발을 목적으로, 건설현장에서 실질적 인 위험관리를 수행할 수 있는 모델을 개발하였다. 위험관리에 초점을 둔 새로운 공정관리모델은 주공정 관리 및 위험주공정 관리를 함께 수행할 수 있을 것이다.

• Journal of Construction Engineering and Project Management
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• 제3권2호
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• pp.21-34
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• 2013

Various risk factors affect construction projects. Due to the uncertainties created by risk factors, actual activity durations frequently deviate from the estimated durations in either favorable or adverse direction. For this reason, evaluation of schedule uncertainty is required to make decisions accurately when managing construction projects. In this regard, this paper presents a new computer simulation model - the Repetitive Schedule Risk Analysis Model (RSRAM) - to evaluate unit-based repetitive building project schedules under uncertainty when activity durations and risk factors are correlated. The proposed model utilizes Monte Carlo Simulation and a Critical Path Method based repetitive scheduling procedure. This new procedure concurrently provides the utilization of resources without interruption and the maintenance of network logic through successive units. Furthermore, it enables assigning variable production rates to the activities from one unit to another and any kind of relationship type with or without lag time. Details of the model are described and an example application is presented. The findings show that the model produces realistic results regarding the extent of uncertainty inherent in the schedule.

• Asian Pacific Journal of Cancer Prevention
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• 제13권8호
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• pp.3717-3721
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• 2012

Purpose: Any association between the CYP1A1 Ile462Val polymorphism and endometrial cancer risk remains inconclusive. For a more precise estimate, we performed the present meta-analysis. Methods: PUBMED, OVID and EMBASE were searched for the studies which met inclusion criteria. Data in all eligible studies were evaluated and extracted by two authors independently. The meta-analysis estimated pooled odds ratio (OR) with 95% confidence interval (CI) for endometrial cancer risk attributable to the CYP1A1 Ile462Val polymorphism. Results: A total of 7 studies were included in this meta-analysis. The results indicated no association between endometrial cancer risk and the CYP1A1 Ile462Val polymorphism (for Val vs Ile allele model [OR 1.09, 95% CI 0.73-1.62]; for Val.Val vs Ile.Ile genotype model [OR 1.54, 95% CI 0.56-4.23]; for (Ile.Val + Val.Val) vs Ile.Ile genotpye model [OR 1.08, 95% CI 0.71-1.63]; for Val.Val vs (Ile.Ile + Ile.Val) genotype model [OR 1.46, 95% CI 0.53-4.04]). Conclusions: This meta-analysis suggests that there is no association between endometrial cancer risk and the CYP1A1 Ile462Val polymorphism.