• Title/Summary/Keyword: Revenue Estimate

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A Study on the Fair Returns of Private Participants' Investments on BTO PPI Projects (BTO 민간투자사업 적정수익률에 관한 연구)

  • Shin, Sung-Hwan
    • Korean Journal of Construction Engineering and Management
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    • v.10 no.2
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    • pp.121-131
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    • 2009
  • This study will estimate the fair return on private participants' investments on BTO type PPI (Private Public Infrastructure) projects using the data from past BTO projects in Korea. In the past, the real returns of $6%\sim9%$ were provided to private participants. The results of this study show that those returns were too high compared with the estimated fair returns, especially for projects with the minimum revenue guarantee (MRG) by the government. Moreover, the excess portion of the return over the fair return becomes even larger when there is a demand forecast bias. In reality, most of the BTO projects have far lower actual revenues than the initial forecasted revenue in concession agreements. This phenomenon implies that BTO projects have a tendency of overly forecasting revenues. If so, the value of the minimum revenue guarantee becomes larger, and therefore, the fair return to private participants should decrease. It is hoped that this study helps future BTO projects' concession agreements between the government and private participants to become more fair from the perspectives of risk and return profiles.

The Effect of AI Development on the Economic Growth: The Case of South Korea (인공지능산업 발전이 경제성장에 미치는 효과 분석)

  • Dong Jin Lee
    • Analyses & Alternatives
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    • v.8 no.1
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    • pp.59-85
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    • 2024
  • This study examines the impact of the development of the artificial intelligence (AI) industry on the economic growth of South Korea. The study uses variables such as the revenue and patent applications of AI-related companies, as well as industry-specific total factor productivity and GDP, to estimate the effects. The results suggest that the growth of the AI industry has a positive effect on the economic growth with a lag of about one year. Specifically, the effect of government AI revenue on GDP growth appears to be greater than that of private companies or consumer-focused AI revenue. This indicates that government policies aimed at promoting the diffusion of the AI industry have had significant effects. The study notes that the period covered by the AI industry survey data is relatively short, and there is a lack of detailed data for the manufacturing sector. I suggest that further improvements and accumulation of data could lead to more robust results.

Trade Liberalization and Customs Revenue in Vietnam

  • LE, Thi Anh Tuyet
    • The Journal of Asian Finance, Economics and Business
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    • v.7 no.8
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    • pp.213-224
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    • 2020
  • The study assesses the impact of trade liberalization factors on changes in customs revenues in Vietnam. Research data was conducted between 2002 and 2017 on the official website of the Government's Web Portal and The World Bank. This paper uses the vector error correction model to estimate the short-term and long term relationship between data series. The results have proven that tariff reductions have a positive effect on short-term and long-term customs revenues in Vietnam. However, the implementation of other international commitments on trade liberalization has positive short-term and long-term negative impacts on customs revenues in Vietnam. The study's results also show that exchange rate has no effect on changes in customs revenues in the short term but it has a strong impact on increasing customs revenues in the long run. Based on these findings, the article also suggests a number of policies to ensure customs revenues in Vietnam in future. In order to ensure customs revenues, the government of Vietnam should: (1) having some policy to improve the efficiency of customs management in Vietnam; (2) Building appropriate VND exchange rate policy; (3) Establishing reasonable non - tariff barriers to prevent fraud and ovations cause losses in customs revenues.

A Practical Study on the New Revenue Estimate Model Of SSM (국내 대형슈퍼의 개량확률모델에 관한 실증연구)

  • Ahn, Sung-Woo;Lee, Sang-Youn;Kim, Pan-Jin;Youn, Myoung-Kil
    • Journal of Distribution Science
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    • v.7 no.3
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    • pp.5-24
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    • 2009
  • In the retail management, store location has an important influence like business skills. The reason for failure to selecting location is that the market analysis model is not popular in business field. It gets worse in supermarket industry. Currently, store developers are relying on simple statistics and the sixth sense as market analysis techniques. lt proves that the market analysis model is not distributed well in the field. This market analysis model can apply to medium and small business market using an existing market analysis model, broad market model. And its study outcome can be theorized as a result. Converse's new retail model can be used as to analyze junction market. Pareto_Huff model can also be used to compute shopping probability. To do so, this study can be divided into walking distance market and driving distance market as a model market. Also it examines industry type such as SM and SSM. By taking consumer survey, condition of consumers to select store will be counted in shopping probability so that it improves the objectivity and reliability. Through this process, derived study outcome can be a new estimated revenue model for practical application of selecting store location in large and medium-sized supermarket.

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Global Value Chain and Misallocation: Evidence from South Korea

  • Bongseok Choi;Seon Tae Kim
    • Journal of Korea Trade
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    • v.26 no.4
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    • pp.1-22
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    • 2022
  • Purpose - This paper empirically investigates the effect of a rise in the global value chain (GVC) on the industry-level efficiency of resource allocation (based on plant-level inefficiency measures) in Korea, with a focus on various channels through which a rise in the GVC can increase competition among firms and thus induce resources to be allocated more efficiently across firms. Design/methodology - We empirically investigate the relationship between the industry-specific importance of GVC and the industry-level allocative inefficiency that is measured as the dispersion of the plant-level marginal revenue of capital (MRK) as in Hsieh and Klenow's (2009) influential model. We compute MRK dispersion for industries sorted by various characteristics that are closely related to firm/industry sensitivity to the GVC. In other words, we compute the average industry-level MRK dispersion for industries sorted by industry-specific importance of GVC and compute the difference between the two groups of industries (higher vs. lower than the median GVC); we also calculate the difference between industries sorted by industry-specific export (import) intensity. This is our difference-in-difference estimate of the MRK dispersion associated with the GVC for the export (import)-intensive industry versus the non-export (non-import)-intensive industry. This difference-in-difference estimate of the MRK dispersion conditional vs. unconditional on firm-level productivity is then calculated further (triple-difference estimate). Findings - A rise in GVC is associated with a decrease in the MRK dispersion in the export-intensive industry compared to the non-export-intensive industry. The same is true for industries that rely heavily on imports versus those that do not (i.e., import intensive vs. non-intensive). Furthermore, the reduction in the MRK dispersion in the export-intensive industry associated with an increase in the GVC is disproportionately greater for high-productivity firms. In contrast, the negative relationship between GVC and MRK dispersion in the import-intensive industry is disproportionately smaller for high-productivity firms. Originality/value - Existing studies focus on the relationship between GVC and aggregate output, exports, and imports at the country level. We investigate detailed firm/industry-level mechanisms that determine the relationship between GVC, trade, and productivity. Using the plant-level data in South Korea, we investigate how GVC is related to the cross-firm MRK dispersion, an important measure of allocative inefficiency, based on Hsieh and Klenow's (2009) influential economic theory. This is the first study to provide plant-level evidence of how GVC affects MRK dispersion. Furthermore, we examine how the relationship between GVC and MRK-dispersion varies across export intensity, import intensity, and firm-level productivity, providing insight into how GVC can affect firms' exposure to competition in the global market differently depending on market conditions and thus generate trade-related productivity gains.

Methods and Applications to estimate the Conversion Factor of Resource-based Relative Value Scale for Nurse-Midwife's Delivery Service in the National Health Insurance (조산원(助産院)의 분만간호서비스에 대한 건강보험수가 산출방법과 적용방안)

  • Kim, Jin-Hyun;Jung, Yoo-Mi
    • Journal of Korean Academy of Nursing
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    • v.39 no.4
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    • pp.574-583
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    • 2009
  • Purpose: This paper analyzed alternative methods of calculating the conversion factor for nurse-midwife's delivery services in the national health insurance and estimated the optimal reimbursement level for the services. Methods: A cost accounting model and Sustainable Growth Rate (SGR) model were developed to estimate the conversion factor of Resource-Based Relative Value Scale (RBRVS) for nurse-midwife's services, depending on the scope of revenue considered in financial analysis. The data and sources from the government and the financial statements from nurse-midwife clinics were used in analysis. Results: The cost accounting model and SGR model showed a 17.6-37.9% increase and 19.0-23.6% increase, respectively, in nurse-midwife fee for delivery services in the national health insurance. The SGR model measured an overall trend of medical expenditures rather than an individual financial status of nurse-midwife clinics, and the cost analysis properly estimated the level of reimbursement for nurse-midwife's services. Conclusion: Normal vaginal delivery in nurse-midwife clinics is considered cost-effective in terms of insurance financing. Upon a declining share of health expenditures on midwife clinics, designing a reimbursement strategy for midwife's services could be an opportunity as well as a challenge when it comes to efficient resource allocation.

Investment Analysis of Venture Business for Probabilistic Cases (벤처사업의 투자결정기법: 확률적 사례를 중심으로)

  • 백관호
    • Journal of Technology Innovation
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    • v.6 no.2
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    • pp.178-207
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    • 1998
  • This article suggests a methodology to decide the priority of investment project for venture business under the dynamic circumstance. By the Monte Carlo procedure on the probability distribution of cost and revenue, the model simulates the investment project to estimate profit ratio and risk. The profit ratio is calculated on the yearly basis for the relative comparison. The project risk is calculated as semi-variance under the target yield. After sufficient simulations in this fashion for several projects, the efficient projects with more profit and less risk are selected by the dominance principle. Then the regression equation of the selected projects is produced to find the relative value of the projects. The relative value is obtained through dividing the raw profit ratio by the estimated one on the equation. This value shows the degree to which the simulated project yields over the equation. The priority of investment is decided by this value. An examplary venture business of chemical development for semi-conductor is presented as a case study.

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A Feasibility Investigation of adoption for the Seat-type Express Electric railway on the Railroad in Metropolitan area - Focus on the double tracked Seoul-Chuncheon line - (광역철도 좌석형급행열차 도입 타당성에 관한 연구 - 경춘선 복선화구간 중심으로 -)

  • Park, Min-Kyu;Kim, Si-Gon
    • Proceedings of the KSR Conference
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    • 2008.06a
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    • pp.1447-1457
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    • 2008
  • The operation of the Seat-type Express Electric railway (SEE) has been watched for an alternative plan according to the increase of competition among the vehicle in metropolitan city. The purpose of this study was to examine a feasibility for the adoption of the SEE by analysis of various condition in the double tracked Souel-Chuncheon line. Fare estimate, station selection for SEE, managerial plan, demanding forecasting and analysis were performed to compute financial efficiency. The results showed financial validity on Revenue Cost Ratio (R/C), Financial Net Present Value (FNPV), Financial Internal Rate of Return (FIRR). This results indicate the evidence that SEE is a new means which is able to complement for finance, transportation capacity in metropolitan city.

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Economic Effects of Subsidiary Services in Hospitals (병원급 의료기관 의료부대사업의 경제적 파급효과)

  • Lee, Ye Seol;Lee, Sang Gyu;Kwon, Sung Tak;Kim, Tae Hyun
    • Korea Journal of Hospital Management
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    • v.21 no.1
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    • pp.32-42
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    • 2016
  • This study is conducted to estimate economic ripple effects of subsidiary services of hospitals. Using the Input/Output Analysis, this study analyzes production inducement effect, added value inducement effect, and labor inducement effect. Also, it assesses potential economic effects of the subsidiary services of which the scope is expanded as the government's proposed in 2014. Data regarding hospital subsidiary services and economic effects are obtained from the hospitals' financial statements on the National Tax Services and the Bank of Korea. The major results of this study are summarized as follows; subsidiary service profits of hospitals are 466 billion won and rent profits of hospitals are 152 billion won. Of these, the rate of subsidiary service profits in tertiary hospitals is about 66% of total subsidiary service profits. Producement inducement effect of subsidiary services of hospitals is higher than that of total industry, service industry and medical service industry. Added value inducement effect of subsidiary services of hospitals is higher than that of total industry, manufacturing industry, service industry and medical service industry. Job position inducement effect of subsidiary service in hospitals is higher than that of total industry, service industry and medical service industry. Also, employment inducement effect of subsidiary service in hospitals is higher than that of total industry and medical service industry. The results may suggest that subsidiary services revenue in medical institutions contribute to improving operating profits. Facing with intense market competition and pressures to control health care costs, hospitals may need to determine whether subsidiary services help boost their profitability and improve customer satisfaction.

Economic Analysis and Fee Development by Relative Value Scale of Nursing Practices by Emergency Nurse Practitioner (응급전문간호행위에 대한 건강보험 상대가치 수가개발 및 경제성 평가)

  • Kim, Jin Hyun;Kim, Kyung Sook;Kim, Mi Won;Lee, Kyoung-A
    • Korean Journal of Adult Nursing
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    • v.25 no.3
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    • pp.275-288
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    • 2013
  • Purpose: The purpose of this study was to perform an economic analysis and estimate the fee for the practices that carried out by Emergency Nurse Practitioner (ENP) using relative value scale (RVS) and its conversion factor. Methods: First, we developed ENP's RVS for 25 advanced nursing services based on ENP's workload and its time spent by survey. A cost analysis was performed to evaluate the conversion factor of ENP's RVS. The share of ENP's contribution to fee-for-service in emergency setting was also analyzed. Results: Calculation of the RVS of 25 advanced nursing practices showed a range of points from 73.4 to 296.3 and an average of 145.1 points. The relevant conversion factor for advanced nursing practices among ENP was estimated at 12.2~15.9 won. The contribution rate of ENP's advanced nursing practices in the relative value scale of the national health insurance was estimated at 13.1~17.0%. Conclusion: The practices of ENP are not compensated separately and its reimbursement is usually included in physician fee. An estimation of nursing fee and an independent fee related to ENP's services shows the contribution rate to total revenue. It suggests that emergency nurse practitioners be considered as a revenue source the in emergency room.