• The Journal of Asian Finance, Economics and Business
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• v.7 no.12
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• pp.683-692
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• 2020

The primary purpose of the study is to investigate the volatility spillovers from global economic policy uncertainty and macroeconomic factors to the Islamic stock market returns. The study focuses on the Islamic stock indices of emerging economies including Indonesia, Malaysia, and Turkey. The Macroeconomic factors are industrial production, consumer price index, exchange rate. EGARCH model is employed for investigation of volatility spillovers. The results show that the global economic policy uncertainty has a significant spillover effect only on the returns of Turkish Islamic stock index. Similarly, the shocks in macroeconomic factors have little influence on the volatility of Islamic indices returns. The volatility of Indonesian and the Turkish Islamic stock indices returns is not influenced from the fluctuations in macroeconomic factors. However, there is significant volatility spillover only from industrial production to the returns of Malaysian Islamic index. The results suggest that the Islamic stock markets are less likely to influence from the global economic policies and macroeconomic factors. The stability of Islamic stocks provide opportunity for diversification of portfolios, particularly in stressed market conditions. The major price factors of Islamic markets could be firms' specific factors or investors' behaviors. The findings are helpful for policy makers and investors in formulating policies and portfolios.

• East Asian Economic Review
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• v.27 no.1
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• pp.33-60
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• 2023

This paper analyzes the entire distribution of stock market returns/volatility in five emerging markets (ASEAN5) and figures out the conditional distribution of the CHI_EPU index. The aim is to examine the impact of CHI_EPU on the stock returns/volatility density of ASEAN5 markets. It also examined whether changes in CHI_EPU explain returns at higher or lower points (abnormal returns). This paper models the behaviour of stock returns from March 2011 to June 2018 using a non-parametric conditional density estimation approach. The results indicate that CHI_EPU diminishes stock returns and augments volatility in ASEAN5 markets, except for Malaysia, where it affects stock returns positively. The possible reason for this positive impact is that EPU is not the leading factor reducing Malaysian stock returns; but, other forces, such as dependency on other countries' stock markets and global factors, may have a positive impact on stock returns (Bachmann and Bayer, 2013). Thus, the risk of simultaneous investment in Chinese and ASEAN5 stock markets, except Malaysia, is high. Further, the degree of this influence intensifies at extreme high/low intervals (positive/negative tails). The findings of this study have significant implications for investors, policymakers, market agents, and analysts of ASEAN5.

• KDI Journal of Economic Policy
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• v.24 no.2
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• pp.83-119
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• 2002

In this paper, we study the relationship between the U.S. daily stock returns and the corresponding Korean returns. More specifically, we examine whether the previously realized U.S. stock returns would help predict the current Korean returns. We find that for dose-to-close daily stock returns, the U.S. returns would help predict the Korean returns. However, for open-to-close stock returns, the U.S. intraday stock returns would not help predict the corresponding Korean returns. After distinguishing investors by their nationality and types, we then examine whether there is a relationship between investors' net purchase of Korean stocks and the previous days' U.S. stock returns. We find that the amount of international investors' net purchase of Korean stocks today would vary significantly with the previous days' U.S. stock returns. The Korean individual investors and the Korean investment trust companies, however, would follow the opposite investment pattern.

• Management Science and Financial Engineering
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• v.11 no.2
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• pp.1-17
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• 2005

In this article we consider a supply chain consisting of a risk-sensitive manufacturer and a riskneutral retailer. The manufacturer maximizes her individual expected profit by designing a supply chain coordinating returns contract (SCRC) that consists of (i) a channel coordinating returns policy that maximizes the supply chain joint expected profit, and (ii) a profit sharing arrangement that gives the retailer an expected profit only slightly higher than that in the no returns case so that it is just enough to induce the retailer to accept the SCRC. Thus, the manufacturer captures as high a percentage as possible of the jointly maximum supply chain profit. However, this contract can sometimes lead to the manufacturer's resulting realized profit being lower than that in the no returns case when demand is lower than expected. In this context, even though profit is sufficiently attractive on average, will the risk-sensitive manufacturer ever consider applying a SCRC? Our research raises this question and focuses on designing a SCRC that can significantly increase the probability of the manufacturer's resulting realized profit being at least higher than that in the no returns case.

• East Asian Economic Review
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• v.22 no.4
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• pp.467-505
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• 2018

We propose a simple identification scheme for the causes of the violations of uncovered interest parity. Our method uses the serial dependence patterns of excess returns as a criterion for judging performance of economic models. We show that a mean reverting component in excess returns, representing a violation of uncovered interest parity, mainly contributes to generating different serial dependence patterns of excess returns: rational expectations risk premium models tend to generate negative serial dependence of excess returns, while expectational errors models tend to generate positive serial dependence.

• Industrial Engineering and Management Systems
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• v.8 no.1
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• pp.1-13
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• 2009

This paper presents a coordinated planning model of price-dependent demand for a single-manufacturer and a single-retailer. The demand is assumed to be normally distributed, with its mean being price dependent. The manufacturer and retailer coordinate with each other to jointly and simultaneously determine the retail selling price and the retailer order quantity to maximize the joint expected total profit. This model is then compared to a 'returns' policy model where manufacturer buys back unsold items from the retailers. It is shown that the optimal total profit is higher for coordinated planning model than that for the returns policy model, in which the retail price is set by the retailer. A compensation or profit sharing scheme is then suggested and it is shown that the coordinated model with profit sharing yields a 'win-win' situation. Numerical results are presented to illustrate the profit patterns for both linear and nonlinear demand functions. The coordinated planning model, in addition, has a lower optimal price than for a returns policy model, which would result in higher sales, thus expanding the markets for the whole supply chain.

• Science & Technology Policy
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• v.1 no.2 s.2
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• pp.17-17
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• 1991

• East Asian Economic Review
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• v.18 no.3
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• pp.253-276
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• 2014

We examine which traditional asset pricing variables together with bank-specific accounting variables explain the cross-sectional variation of future bank stock returns, using a firm-level data of eight Asian countries. Our empirical evidence shows that exchange rate risk, firm size, the book-to-market ratio, and the net income ratio are important in explaining future bank stock returns during normal times. However, during the Global Financial Crisis period, different variables such as local market beta, illiquidity risk, equity ratio, and off-balance sheets ratio were statistically significant. Thus, researchers and policy practitioners should monitor these variables during normal times as well as during times of crisis.

• Industrial Engineering and Management Systems
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• v.14 no.2
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• pp.111-121
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• 2015

A correct information of customer returns ratio under e-commerce is not always shared between supply chain (SC) members. Also, it is important issue for SC members to handle the unsold products in a market. This paper discusses the impact of information sharing of customer returns ratio on an optimal sales strategy including resale of customer returns and buyback policy for a SC under e-commerce with a manufacturer and a retailer. A retailer sells a single product and resells the resalable customer returns in the same market. A manufacturer produces the products and buys back the unsold products as to their quality from the retailer. The integrated SC (ISC) determines the optimal product order quantity to maximize the expected profit of the whole SC. The decentralized SC (DSC) makes the optimal decisions for order quantity and the wholesale price of products to maximize the expected profit of each SC member. The effect of information sharing is discussed between SC members under ISC and DSC. The analysis numerically investigates how information sharing of the returns ratio affects the optimal decision and the expected profits under ISC and DSC. Besides, effect of SC coordination to encourage the shift to ISC is discussed.

• Asia-Pacific Journal of Business
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• v.11 no.2
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• pp.159-172
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• 2020

Purpose - The purpose of this study is to investigate economic variables which have impact on the prices and returns of preferred stocks and to provide investors, underwriters, and policy makers with information regarding correlations and causal relations between them. Design/methodology/approach - This study collected 98 monthly data from Korea Exchange and Bank of Korea. The Granger causal relation analysis, unit-root test and the multiple regression analysis were hired in order to analyze the data. Findings - First, our study derives the economic variables affecting the prices and returns of preferred stocks and their implications, while previous studies focused mainly on the differential characteristics and related economic factors between common and preferred stocks. Empirical results show that the significant variables influencing the prices and returns of preffered stocks are consumer sentiment index, consumer price index, industrial production index, KOSPI volatility index, and exchange rate between Korean won and US dollar. Second, consumer sentiment index, consumer price index, and industrial production index have significant casual relations with the returns of preferred stocks, providing market participants with important information regarding investment in preferred stocks. Research implications or Originality - This study is different from previous studies in that preferred stocks themselves are investigated rather than the gap between common stocks and preferred stocks. In addition, we derive the major macro variables affecting the prices and returns of preferred stocks and find some useful causal relations between the macro variables and returns of preferred stocks. These findings give important implications to market participants, including stock investors, underwriters, and policy makers.