• Title/Summary/Keyword: Response option

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Real Option Analysis to Value Government Risk Share Liability in BTO-a Projects (손익공유형 민간투자사업의 투자위험분담 가치 산정)

  • KU, Sukmo;LEE, Sunghoon;LEE, Seungjae
    • Journal of Korean Society of Transportation
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    • v.35 no.4
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    • pp.360-373
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    • 2017
  • The BTO-a projects is the types, which has a demand risk among the type of PPP projects in Korea. When demand risk is realized, private investor encounters financial difficulties due to lower revenue than its expectation and the government may also have a problem in stable infrastructure operation. In this regards, the government has applied various risk sharing policies in response to demand risk. However, the amount of government's risk sharing is the government's contingent liabilities as a result of demand uncertainty, and it fails to be quantified by the conventional NPV method of expressing in the text of the concession agreement. The purpose of this study is to estimate the value of investment risk sharing by the government considering the demand risk in the profit sharing system (BTO-a) introduced in 2015 as one of the demand risk sharing policy. The investment risk sharing will take the form of options in finance. Private investors have the right to claim subsidies from the government when their revenue declines, while the government has the obligation to pay subsidies under certain conditions. In this study, we have established a methodology for estimating the value of investment risk sharing by using the Black - Scholes option pricing model and examined the appropriateness of the results through case studies. As a result of the analysis, the value of investment risk sharing is estimated to be 12 billion won, which is about 4% of the investment cost of the private investment. In other words, it can be seen that the government will invest 12 billion won in financial support by sharing the investment risk. The option value when assuming the traffic volume risk as a random variable from the case studies is derived as an average of 12.2 billion won and a standard deviation of 3.67 billion won. As a result of the cumulative distribution, the option value of the 90% probability interval will be determined within the range of 6.9 to 18.8 billion won. The method proposed in this study is expected to help government and private investors understand the better risk analysis and economic value of better for investment risk sharing under the uncertainty of future demand.

Cisplatin Plus Gemcitabine for Treatment of Breast Cancer Patients with Brain Metastases: a Preferential Option for Triple Negative Patients?

  • Erten, Cigdem;Demir, Lutfiye;Somali, Isil;Alacacioglu, Ahmet;Kucukzeybek, Yuksel;Akyol, Murat;Can, Alper;Dirican, Ahmet;Bayoglu, Vedat;Tarhan, Mustafa Oktay
    • Asian Pacific Journal of Cancer Prevention
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    • v.14 no.6
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    • pp.3711-3717
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    • 2013
  • Background: To assess the efficacy and tolerability of Cisplatin plus Gemcitabine combination in patients with brain metastases (BM) from breast cancer (BC). Materials and Methods: Eighteen BC patients with BM who were treated with Cisplatin plus Gemcitabine regimen between 2003-2011 were evaluated. Results: A median of 6 cycles of this regimen were received, in fifteen patients (83.3%) as first-line chemotherapy, in 2 as second-line and in 1 as third-line after diagnosis of BM. Dose reduction was performed in 11 (61.1%) patients; major reasons were neutropenia and leukopenia. Grade III neutropenia and Grade II trombocytopenia rates were 33.3% and 16.7% respectively. Overall response rate (ORR; complete+partial response rate) was 33.4% (n=6) for the entire study population; triple negative patients achieved an 66.6% ORR while hormone receptor (HR) positive patients had 25% and HER2 positive patients 12.5%. Median progression-free survival was 5.6 months (2.4-8.8 months, 95%CI) and longer in patients with triple negative breast cancer (TNBC) (median 7.4 months, 95%CI, 2.4-12.3 months) than the patients with other subtypes (median 5 months for HER2 positive and 3.6 months for HR positive patients). Median PFS of the patients with TNBC who received this regimen as first-line was 9.2 months (5.2-13.2 months, 95%CI). Conclusions: Cisplatin plus Gemcitabine may be a treatment option for patients with BM from breast cancer. Longer PFS and higher response rates are results that support the usage of this regimen especially for the triple negative subtype. However, further prospective and randomized trials are clearly required to provide more exact information.

Re-irradiation of unresectable recurrent head and neck cancer: using Helical Tomotherapy as image-guided intensity-modulated radiotherapy

  • Jeong, Songmi;Yoo, Eun Jung;Kim, Ji Yoon;Han, Chi Wha;Kim, Ki Jun;Kay, Chul Seung
    • Radiation Oncology Journal
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    • v.31 no.4
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    • pp.206-215
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    • 2013
  • Purpose: Re-irradiation (re-RT) is considered a treatment option for inoperable locoregionally recurrent head and neck cancer (HNC) after prior radiotherapy. We evaluated the efficacy and safety of re-RT using Helical Tomotherapy as image-guided intensity-modulated radiotherapy in recurrent HNC. Materials and Methods: Patients diagnosed with recurrent HNC and received re-RT were retrospectively reviewed. Primary endpoint was overall survival (OS) and secondary endpoints were locoregional control and toxicities. Results: The median follow-up period of total 9 patients was 18.7 months (range, 4.1 to 76 months) and that of 3 alive patients was 49 months (range, 47 to 76 months). Median dose of first radiotherapy and re-RT was 64.8 and 47.5 $Gy_{10}$. Median cumulative dose of the two courses of radiotherapy was 116.3 $Gy_{10}$ (range, 91.8 to 128.9 $Gy_{10}$) while the median interval between the two courses of radiation was 25 months (range, 4 to 137 months). The response rate after re-RT of the evaluated 8 patients was 75% (complete response, 4; partial response, 2). Median locoregional relapse-free survival after re-RT was 11.9 months (range, 3.4 to 75.1 months) and 5 patients eventually presented with treatment failure (in-field failure, 2; in- and out-field failure, 2; out-field failure, 1). Median OS of the 8 patients was 20.3 months (range, 4.1 to 75.1 months). One- and two-year OS rates were 62.5% and 50%, respectively. Grade 3 leucopenia developed in one patient as acute toxicity, and grade 2 osteonecrosis and trismus as chronic toxicity in another patient. Conclusion: Re-RT using Helical Tomotherapy for previously irradiated patients with unresectable locoregionally recurrent HNC may be a feasible treatment option with long-term survival and acceptable toxicities.

Development of FEA-based Metal Sphere Signal Map for Nuclear Power Plant Structure (유한요소해석 기반 원전 기계구조물 충격-질량지표 개발)

  • Moon, Seongin;Kang, To;Han, Soonwoo
    • Transactions of the Korean Society of Pressure Vessels and Piping
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    • v.14 no.1
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    • pp.38-47
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    • 2018
  • For safe operation of nuclear power plants, a loose-part monitoring system (LPMS) is used to detect and locate loose-parts within the reactor coolant system, and to estimate their mass and damage potential. There are several methods to estimate mass, such as the center frequency method based on the Hertz's impact theory, a frequency ratio method and so on, but it is known that these methods cannot provide accurate information on impact response for identifying the impact source. Thanks to increasing computing power, finite element analysis (FEA) method recently become an available option to calculate reliably impact response behavior. In this paper, a finite element analysis model to simulate the propagation behavior of the bending wave, generated by a metal ball impact, is validated by performing a series of impact tests and the corresponding finite element analyses for flat plate and shell structures. Also, a FEA-based metal sphere signal map is developed, and then blind tests are performed to verify the map. This study provides an accurate simulation method for predicting the metal impact behavior and for building a metal sphere signal map, which can be used to estimate the mass of loose-parts on site in nuclear power plants.

Problems in Mandatory Course Evaluations (강제적인 대학 강의평가의 문제점)

  • Han, Kyung-Soo;Choi, Sook-Hee;Park, Jae-Cheol
    • Communications for Statistical Applications and Methods
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    • v.18 no.1
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    • pp.35-45
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    • 2011
  • Some researchers insist that many students respond to the course evaluation surveys without sincerity and even without reading the questions. To analyze the pattern of student responses, the results of course evaluations for five semesters at Jeonbuk National University are reviewed. In mandatory course evaluations, 20% of the students marked the same option numbers to all questions regarding their lectures. In addition, consistent responses were over 50%. These results show that the university administration should reform the current course evaluation system in all respects.

High-resolution MR Imaging of Carotid Atherosclerotic Plaques (경동맥 경화판의 고해상도 자기공명영상)

  • Shin, Won-Seon;Kim, Sung-Mok;Choe, Yeon-Hyeon
    • Investigative Magnetic Resonance Imaging
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    • v.16 no.2
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    • pp.97-102
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    • 2012
  • High-resolution carotid MRI allows visualization of carotid atherosclerotic plaque characteristics. MRI serves as a noninvasive option for the detection of active plaque inflammation and intraplaque hemorrhage. Significant gains in signal-tonoise ratio and contrast-to-noise ratio can be obtained for carotid atheroma imaging at 3T compared with 1.5T. Normalized wall index or wall area on MRI has shown its efficacy in monitoring the response after medical therapy. $T(2)^*$ quantification in carotid plaques before and after the administration of ultrasmall superparamagnetic iron oxide particles shows difference in response to treatment according to drug doses. In conclusion, high-resolution MRI is useful in the diagnosis and monitoring of carotid atherosclerotic plaques prone to transient ischemic attack and stroke.

Dynamic stiffness based computation of response for framed machine foundations

  • Lakshmanan, N.;Gopalakrishnan, N.;Rama Rao, G.V.;Sathish kumar, K.
    • Geomechanics and Engineering
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    • v.1 no.2
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    • pp.121-142
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    • 2009
  • The paper deals with the applications of spectral finite element method to the dynamic analysis of framed foundations supporting high speed machines. Comparative performance of approximate dynamic stiffness methods formulated using static stiffness and lumped or consistent or average mass matrices with the exact spectral finite element for a three dimensional Euler-Bernoulli beam element is presented. The convergence of response computed using mode superposition method with the appropriate dynamic stiffness method as the number of modes increase is illustrated. Frequency proportional discretisation level required for mode superposition and approximate dynamic stiffness methods is outlined. It is reiterated that the results of exact dynamic stiffness method are invariant with reference to the discretisation level. The Eigen-frequencies of the system are evaluated using William-Wittrick algorithm and Sturm number generation in the $LDL^T$ decomposition of the real part of the dynamic stiffness matrix, as they cannot be explicitly evaluated. Major's method for dynamic analysis of machine supporting structures is modified and the plane frames are replaced with springs of exact dynamic stiffness and dynamically flexible longitudinal frames. Results of the analysis are compared with exact values. The possible simplifications that could be introduced for a typical machine induced excitation on a framed structure are illustrated and the developed program is modified to account for dynamic constraint equations with a master slave degree of freedom (DOF) option.

Demand Response On End-Use Customers Through Critical Peak Pricing (Critical Peak Pricing 요금제를 이용한 일반수용가 대상 수요관리의 방법)

  • Joo, Jhi-Young;Ahn, Sang-Ho;Yoon, Yong-Tae
    • Proceedings of the KIEE Conference
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    • 2007.07a
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    • pp.830-831
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    • 2007
  • 부하의 가격에 대한 높은 반응성(price-responsiveness)과 이를 이끌어 낼 수 있는 적절한 수요관리(demand response) 정책은 구조 개편된 전력 시장에서 가격 변동성 및 설비에 대한 투자 부족 문제를 효과적으로 해결하는 데 필수적이라는 데에는 많은 연구자들이 동의하고 있다. 그럼에도 불구하고, 특히 전력 사용을 미리 계획하지 않는 소규모 소비자들의 경우, 전력 소비가 본질적으로 매우 탄력적이지 못하므로(inelastic) 가격에 민감한 부하를 이끌어 내기 위한 수요관리 정책은 신중하게 세워져야 한다. 본 논문은 최종 소비자에게 전력을 제공하면서 critical peak pricing(CPP)를 동적으로 관리하고 이러한 수요관리에 대한 인센티브를 가진 개체를 도입함으로써 가격에 민감한 부하를 이끌어 내는 수요 반응의 접근법을 제시할 것이다. 가격에 민감한 부하 및 수요 반응 정책의 문제는 정책적, 경제적, 기술적 측면에서 검토되어야 하는 바이나, 본 논문에서는 기술적 측면 및 경제적인 인센티브의 수식화에 초점을 맞추었다. 정책에 인센티브를 가진 개체의 이윤 방정식을 세움으로써 문제를 정식화하였으며, 문제의 최적 해를 구하기 위해 예측 가격을 바탕으로 backward dynamic programming을 통한 swing option 평가 기법을 사용하여 최적의 수요관리 시점을 구해야 함을 제안하는 바이다.

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Efficacy of Herbal Medicine as an Adjunctive Therapy of Chemotherapy for Cervical Cancer: A Systematic Review and Meta-analysis

  • Oh, Seung Yun;Kim, Mi Suk;Joo, Jong Cheon;Song, Yung Sun
    • Journal of Physiology & Pathology in Korean Medicine
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    • v.34 no.5
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    • pp.255-262
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    • 2020
  • This study aimed to evaluate the efficacy of herbal medicine (HM) combined with chemotherapy (CT) for cervical cancer. Ten electronic databases including Pubmed, Cochrane library, Embase, Korean databases, and Chinese medical databases were systematically searched up to October 2019. All randomized controlled trials with HM combined with CT to treat cervical cancer were included. A total of 21 trials were included for analysis. Compared to the control group, HM combined with CT group significantly increased tumor response (complete and partial response) (risk ratio [RR] = 1.24, 95% CI: 1.15-1.33, p < 0.00001) and Karnofsky performance score (standardized mean difference [SMD] = 1.71, 95% CI: 1.41-2.01, p < 0.00001). Also, HM combined with CT group remarkably reduced CT toxicity. In Conclusion, our study suggests that HM might be a potential option for cervical cancer to enhance curative efficacy and reduce CT toxicity.

Effectiveness of methylene blue photosensitizers compared to that of corticosteroids in the management of oral lichen planus: a systematic review and meta-analysis

  • Waingade, Manjushri;Medikeri, Raghavendra S;Rathod, Pooja
    • Journal of Dental Anesthesia and Pain Medicine
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    • v.22 no.3
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    • pp.175-186
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    • 2022
  • This study aimed to systematically review the effectiveness of methylene blue (MB) photosensitizers in the management of symptomatic oral lichen planus (OLP). Electronic online databases and manual searches were performed for randomized controlled trials (RCTs) published in English between January 2010 and February 2022. RCTs comparing photodynamic therapy (PDT) and corticosteroid therapy at baseline and follow-up period were identified. The Cochrane risk of bias tool was used to assess the quality of the included studies. A meta-analysis was performed regarding visual analog scale (VAS) scores, Thongprasom sign scores, lesion size, response to treatment, and exacerbation of lesions after therapy. The clinical severity was analyzed qualitatively. Five RCTs consisting of 180 samples fulfilled the inclusion and exclusion criteria. All parameters of VAS score, Thongprasom sign score, lesion size, and response to treatment were statistically non-significant. Our results indicate that both MB-PDT and corticosteroid therapy are effective for the management of OLP. Moreover, MB-PDT is an effective alternative treatment option for OLP when corticosteroids are contraindicated. However, conclusive evidence cannot be ascertained owing to the heterogeneity among the studies.