• Journal of Climate Change Research
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• v.6 no.4
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• pp.389-397
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• 2015

The changes in the teleconnection associated with El Nin?o-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) over the East Asia and North Pacific under greenhouse warming are analyzed herein by comparing the Historical run (1970/1971~1999/2000) and the Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 4.5 run with 31 climate models, participated in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5). It is found that CMIP5 models have diverse systematic errors in simulating the ENSO teleconnection pattern from model to model. Therefore, we select 21 models based on the models' performance in simulating teleconnection pattern in the present climate. It is shown that CMIP5 models tend to project an overall weaker teleconnection pattern associated with ENSO over East Asia in the future climate than that in the present climate. It can be also noted that the cyclonic flow over the North Pacific is weakened and shifted eastward. However, uncertainties for the ENSO teleconnection changes still exist, suggesting that much consistent agreements on this future teleconnections associated with ENSO should be taken in a further study.

• Proceedings of the Korea Water Resources Association Conference
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• 2023.05a
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• pp.38-38
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• 2023

Pleikrong reservoir with a concrete gravity dam that impound more than 1 billion cubic meter storage volume is one of the largest reservoir in Central Highland of Vietnam. Sedimentation is a major problem in this area and it becomes more severe due to the effect of climate change. Over time, it gradually reduces the reservoir storage capacity affecting to the reliability of water and power supply. This study aims to integrate the soil and water assessment tool (SWAT) model with 14 bias-corrected GCM/RCM models under two emissions scenarios, representative concentration pathway (RCP) 4.5 and 8.5 to estimate sediment inflow to Pleikrong reservoir in the long term period. The result indicated that the simulated total amount of sediment deposited in the reservoir from 2010 to 2018 was approximately 39 mil m³ which is a 17% underestimate compared with the observed value of 47 mil m³. The results also show the reduction in reservoir storage capacity due to sedimentation ranges from 25% to 62% by 2050, depending on the different climate change models. The reservoir reduced storage volume's rate in considering the impact of climate change is much faster than in the case of no climate change. The outcomes of this study will be helpful for a sustainable and climate-resilient plan of sediment management for the Pleikrongreservoir.

• Proceedings of the Korea Water Resources Association Conference
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• 2020.06a
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• pp.197-197
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• 2020

기후변화 연구의 주요 요소 중 하나는 온도, 강수량 및 증발과 같은 기후 요인의 변화를 연구하는 것이다. General Circulation Model(GCM)은 다양한 기후 요인의 변화를 연구하는 데 일반적으로 사용되고 있다. Coupled Model Intercomparison Project(CMIP)는 전 세계의 30여 개 이상의 기관에서 개발한 GCM의 모의 결과를 연구 및 공유하기 위해 개발되었다. 기후 연구에서 대표적으로 사용하고 있는 CMIP5의 GCM은 미래 시나리오인 Representative Concentration Pathway(RCP)를 기반으로 전망 기간의 기후요소를 예측한다. 현재 개발하고 있는 CMIP6의 미래 시나리오인 Shared Socioeconomic Pathways(SSP)는 인구, 경제개발, 생태계, 자원, 제도 및 사회적 요인에 대한 미래의 사회적, 경제적 변화에 따른 기후변화에 대한 대응을 포함하고 있으며, CMIP6의 미래 시나리오는 사회적 및 경제적 결합을 통해 기후변화에 대한 정책 영향에 대한 증진된 결과를 도출할 것으로 예측하고 있다. 따라서 본 연구는 CMIP5의 INM-CM4와 CMIP6의 INM-CM5를 사용하여 대한민국의 과거 기간(1970-2005)의 월 강수량에 대한 성능을 비교하였다. 격자형 자료인 GCM을 Inverse distance weight를 사용하여 대한민국 22개 관측소로 거리 보간을 수행하였으며, 편이보정 방법으로는 분위사상법(Quantile mapping) 방법 중 Smoothing Spline 방법을 사용하여 관측소와의 오차를 수정하였다. 산정된 강수량을 토대로 6개의 평가지표(NRMSE, Pbias, NSE, PRCP100, PRCP200, PRCP300)를 사용하여 GCM의 성능을 평가하여 INM-CM4와 INM-CM5의 성능을 비교하였다.

• Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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• v.55 no.6
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• pp.421-435
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• 2022

As natural disasters have been increasing due to climate change, sustainable solutions are in need to alleviate the degree of drought hazard, assess and project the drought influence based on future climate change scenarios. In assessing drought risk, socio-economic factors of the region must be considered along with meteorological factors. This study categorized drought hazard, exposure, and vulnerability as three major components of drought risk according to the Intergovernmental panel on Climate Change (IPCC) risk assessment framework, and selected indices for each component to quantify the drought risk in South Korea according to the mid-size basins. Combinations of climate scenarios (Representative Concentration Pathway; RCP 2.6 and RCP 8.5) and socio-economic scenarios (Shared Socio-economic Pathways; SSP 1, SSP2 and SSP3) for the near future (2030-2050) ant the far future (2080-2099) were utilized in drought risk analysis, and results were compared with the historical data (1986-2005). In general, the drought risks for all scenarios shows large increases as time proceeds to the far furture. In addition, we analyzed the rank of drought hazard, exposure, vulnerability for drought risk, and each of their contribution. The results showed that the drought hazard is the most contributing component to the increase of drought risk in future and each basin shows varying contributing components. Finally, we suggested countermeasures for each basin according to future climate change scenarios, and thus this study provides made the basis for establishing drought management measures.

• Korean Journal of Agricultural and Forest Meteorology
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• v.25 no.4
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• pp.284-301
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• 2023

The changes in rice climatic yield potential (CYP) across the Korean Peninsula are evaluated based on the new climate change scenario produced by the National Institute of Agricultural Sciences with 18 ensemble members at 1 km resolution under a Shared Socioeconomic Pathway (SSP) and Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP) emission scenarios. To overcome the data availability, we utilize solar radiation f or CYP instead of sunshine duration which is relatively uncommon in the climate prediction f ield. The result show that maximum CYP(CYPmax) decreased, and the optimal heading date is progressively delayed under warmer temperature conditions compared to the current climate. This trend is particularly pronounced in the SSP5-85 scenario, indicating faster warming, except for the northeastern mountainous regions of North Korea. This shows the benef its of lower emission scenarios and pursuing more efforts to limit greenhouse gas emissions. On the other hand, the CYPmax shows a wide range of feasible futures, which shows inherent uncertainties in f uture climate projections and the risks when analyzing a single model or a small number of model results, highlighting the importance of the ensemble approach. The f indings of this study on changes in rice productivity and uncertainties in temperature and solar radiation during the 21st century, based on climate change scenarios, hold value as f undamental information for climate change adaptation efforts.

• Atmosphere
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• v.34 no.2
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• pp.123-138
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• 2024

Using 18 multi-model-based a Shared Socioeconomic Pathway (SSP) and Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP) climate change scenarios, future changes in temperature and warmth index on the Korean Peninsula in the 21st century (2011~2100) were analyzed. In the analysis of the current climate (1981~2010), the ensemble averaged model results were found to reproduce the observed average values and spatial patterns of temperature and warmth index similarly well. In the future climate projections, temperature and warmth index are expected to rise in the 21st century compared to the current climate. They go further into the future and the higher carbon scenario (SSP5-8.5), the larger the increase. In the 21st century, in the low-carbon scenario (SSP1-2.6), temperature and warmth index are expected to rise by about 2.5℃ and 24.6%, respectively, compared to the present, while in the high-carbon scenario, they are expected to rise by about 6.2℃ and 63.9%, respectively. It was analyzed that reducing carbon emissions could contribute to reducing the increase in temperature and warmth index. The increase in the warmth index due to climate change can be positively analyzed to indicate that the effective heat required for plant growth on the Korean Peninsula will be stably secured. However, it is necessary to comprehensively consider negative aspects such as changes in growth conditions during the plant growth period, increase in extreme weather such as abnormally high temperatures, and decrease in plant diversity. This study can be used as basic scientific information for adapting to climate change and preparing response measures.

• Korean journal of applied entomology
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• v.57 no.3
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• pp.127-135
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• 2018

Climate change can affect variables related to the life cycle of insects, including growth, development, survival, reproduction and distribution. As it encourages alien insects to rapidly spread and settle, climate change is regarded as one of the direct causes of decreased biodiversity because it disturbed ecosystems and reduces the population of native species. Hypera postica caused a great deal of damage in the southern provinces of Korea after it was first identified on Jeju lsland in the 1990s. In recent years, the number of individuals moving to estivation sites has concerned scientists due to the crop damage and national proliferation. In this study, we examine how climate change could affect inhabitation of H. postica. The MaxEnt model was applied to estimate potential distributions of H. postica using future climate change scenarios, namely, representative concentration pathway (RCP) 4.5 and RCP 8.5. As variables of the model, this study used six bio-climates (bio3, bio6, bio10, bio12, bio14, and bio16) in consideration of the ecological characteristics of 66 areas where inhabitation of H. postica was confirmed from 2015 to 2017, and in consideration of the interrelation between prediction variables. The fitness of the model was measured at a considered potentially useful level of 0.765 on average, and the warmest quarter has a high contribution rate of 60-70%. Prediction models (RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5) results for the year 2050 and 2070 indicated that H. postica habitats are projected to expand across the Korean peninsula due to increasing temperatures.

• Korean Journal of Agricultural and Forest Meteorology
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• v.18 no.4
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• pp.188-198
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• 2016

In soybeans, responses of high temperature according to shift of sowing dates during the growing season was explored using the crop model, CROPGRO-soybean. In addition, it analyzed impact on change of sowing dates affects yield potential of soybean under future climate scenario (2041-2070). In Jeonju and Miryang during 1981-2010, if sowing at 15 or ten days ahead from 10 June, namely in shorten of the sowing day (i.e. when sown on 25 or 30 May), the yield potential reduced. However, the yield potential increased when sown 5 June. In the case of delay of sowing day (i.e. when sown on 15 or 20 June), reduction of yield potential in the average -5% was higher than increase in the average +2%. In particular, the relative changes for shorten of the sowing day or delay of the sowing day do not be shown in normal years which high temperatures did not abnormally occur during the growing season from 2003 to 2010 except when sown on 25 May. In abnormal years which high temperatures occurred during the critical period, especially R5 to R7, shorten of the sowing day affected to the increase of yield potential in Miryang, while the yield potential decreased in Jeonju except when sown on 5 June. However, delay of the sowing day influenced on the reduction of yield potential both in two sites. In future climate scenario of Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 8.5 during from 2041 to 2070, the increase and decrease of yield potential for shorten of the sowing day were +10/-9% for RCP 8.5 of Jeonju, and +14/-9% for RCP 8.5 of Miryang, respectively. Additionally, it showed +10/-17% for RCP 8.5 in Jeonju, and +10/-29% for RCP 8.5 in Miryang, respectively in the increase and decrease of yield potential for delay of the sowing day.

• Journal of Climate Change Research
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• v.2 no.1
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• pp.55-68
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• 2011

The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change(IPCC) has identified the causes of climate change and come up with measures to address it at the global level. Its key component of the work involves developing and assessing future climate change scenarios. The IPCC Expert Meeting in September 2007 identified a new greenhouse gas concentration scenario "Representative Concentration Pathway(RCP)" and established the framework and development schedules for Climate Modeling (CM), Integrated Assessment Modeling(IAM), Impact Adaptation Vulnerability(IAV) community for the fifth IPCC Assessment Reports while 130 researchers and users took part in. The CM community at the IPCC Expert Meeting in September 2008, agreed on a new set of coordinated climate model experiments, the phase five of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project(CMIP5), which consists of more than 30 standardized experiment protocols for the shortterm and long-term time scales, in order to enhance understanding on climate change for the IPCC AR5 and to develop climate change scenarios and to address major issues raised at the IPCC AR4. Since early 2009, fourteen countries including the Korea have been carrying out CMIP5-related projects. Withe increasing interest on climate change, in 2009 the COdinated Regional Downscaling EXperiment(CORDEX) has been launched to generate regional and local level information on climate change. The National Institute of Meteorological Research(NIMR) under the Korea Meteorological Administration (KMA) has contributed to the IPCC AR4 by developing climate change scenarios based on IPCC SRES using ECHO-G and embarked on crafting national scenarios for climate change as well as RCP-based global ones by engaging in international projects such as CMIP5 and CORDEX. NIMR/KMA will make a contribution to drawing the IPCC AR5 and will develop national climate change scenarios reflecting geographical factors, local climate characteristics and user needs and provide them to national IAV and IAM communites to assess future regional climate impacts and take action.

• Journal of The Korean Society of Grassland and Forage Science
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• v.43 no.1
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• pp.11-21
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• 2023

This study was conducted to estimate the damage of Whole Crop Corn (WCC; Zea Mays L.) according to abnormal climate using machine learning as the Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 4.5 and present the damage through mapping. The collected WCC data was 3,232. The climate data was collected from the Korea Meteorological Administration's meteorological data open portal. The machine learning model used DeepCrossing. The damage was calculated using climate data from the automated synoptic observing system (ASOS, 95 sites) by machine learning. The calculation of damage was the difference between the dry matter yield (DMY)_normal and DMY_abnormal. The normal climate was set as the 40-year of climate data according to the year of WCC data (1978-2017). The level of abnormal climate by temperature and precipitation was set as RCP 4.5 standard. The DMY_normal ranged from 13,845-19,347 kg/ha. The damage of WCC which was differed depending on the region and level of abnormal climate where abnormal temperature and precipitation occurred. The damage of abnormal temperature in 2050 and 2100 ranged from -263 to 360 and -1,023 to 92 kg/ha, respectively. The damage of abnormal precipitation in 2050 and 2100 was ranged from -17 to 2 and -12 to 2 kg/ha, respectively. The maximum damage was 360 kg/ha that the abnormal temperature in 2050. As the average monthly temperature increases, the DMY of WCC tends to increase. The damage calculated through the RCP 4.5 standard was presented as a mapping using QGIS. Although this study applied the scenario in which greenhouse gas reduction was carried out, additional research needs to be conducted applying an RCP scenario in which greenhouse gas reduction is not performed.