• Journal of the Korea institute for structural maintenance and inspection
• /
• v.14 no.5
• /
• pp.119-127
• /
• 2010

This paper provides a new approach for durability prediction of reinforced concrete structures exposed to carbonation. In this method, the prediction can be updated successively by a Bayes' theorem when additional data are available. The stochastic properties of model parameters are explicitly taken into account in the model. To simplify the procedure of the model, the probability of the durability limit is determined based on the samples obtained from the Latin Hypercube Sampling(LHS) technique. The new method may be very useful in design of important concrete structures and help to predict the remaining service life of existing concrete structures which have been monitored. For using the new method, in which the prior distribution is developed to represent the uncertainties of the carbonation velocity using data of concrete structures(3700 specimens) in Korea and the likelihood function is used to monitor in-situ data. The posterior distribution is obtained by combining a prior distribution and a likelihood function. Efficiency of the LHS technique for simulation was confirmed through a comparison between the LHS and the Monte Calro Simulation(MCS) technique.

• Structural Engineering and Mechanics
• /
• v.63 no.6
• /
• pp.703-712
• /
• 2017

The composite blades of offshore wind turbines accumulate structural damage such as fatigue cracking due to harsh operation environments during their service time, leading to premature structural failures. This paper investigates various fatigue crack models for reproducing crack development in composite blades and proposes a stochastic approach to predict fatigue crack evolution and to analyse failure probability for the composite blades. Three typical fatigue models for the propagation of fatigue cracks, i.e., Miner model, Paris model and Reifsnider model, are discussed to reproduce the fatigue crack evolution in composite blades subjected to cyclical loadings. The lifetime probability of fatigue failure of the composite blades is estimated by stochastic deterioration modelling such as gamma process. Based on time-dependent reliability analysis and lifecycle cost analysis, an optimised maintenance policy is determined to make the optimal decision for the composite blades during the service time. A numerical example is employed to investigate the effectiveness of predicting fatigue crack growth, estimating the probability of fatigue failure and evaluating an optimal maintenance policy. The results from the numerical study show that the stochastic gamma process together with the proper fatigue models can provide a useful tool for remaining useful life predictions and optimum maintenance strategies of the composite blades of offshore wind turbines.

• Proceedings of the KIPE Conference
• /
• 2016.07a
• /
• pp.311-312
• /
• 2016

본 논문에서는 사이즈가 다른 고출력 원통형 리튬이온 배터리의 Remaining Useful Life(RUL)을 방전용량 기반으로 전기적 특성분석을 실시하였다. 우선, 배터리의 충/방전이 계속될 시 용량이 어떻게 변화하는지 실험해보았으며, 만충 전압(Fully Charged)에서 만방 전압(Fully Discharged) 까지의 각각의 State-Of-Charge(SOC)에서 Hybrid Pulse Power Characterization (HPPC) Test를 이용해 충전 저항과 방전 저항을 구하여, 용량과 저항의 관계를 파악하였으며, 배터리 RUL을 알기 위한 기본 정보를 확보했다.

• International Journal of Fuzzy Logic and Intelligent Systems
• /
• v.7 no.4
• /
• pp.221-227
• /
• 2007

This paper introduces an on-line particle-filtering-based framework for failure prognosis in nonlinear, non-Gaussian systems. This framework uses a nonlinear state-space model of the plant(with unknown time-varying parameters) and a particle filtering(PF) algorithm to estimate the probability density function(pdf) of the state in real-time. The state pdf estimate is then used to predict the evolution in time of the fault indicator, obtaining as a result the pdf of the remaining useful life(RUL) for the faulty subsystem. This approach provides information about the precision and accuracy of long-term predictions, RUL expectations, and 95% confidence intervals for the condition under study. Data from a seeded fault test for a UH-60 planetary carrier plate are used to validate the proposed methodology.

• Transactions of the Korean Society for Noise and Vibration Engineering
• /
• v.21 no.3
• /
• pp.199-205
• /
• 2011

This paper proposes a framework to predict the mechanical fault of hot rolling mill system (HRMS). The optimum process of HRMS is usually identified by the rotating velocity of working roll. Therefore, observing the velocity of working roll is relevant to early know the HRMS condition. In this paper, we propose the framework which consists of two methods namely spectrum matrix which related to case-based fast Fourier transform(FFT) analysis, and three dimensional condition monitoring based on novel visualization. Validation of the proposed method has been conducted using vibration data acquired from HRMS by accelerometer sensors. The acquired data was also tested by developed software referred as hot rolling mill facility analysis module. The result is plausible and promising, and the developed software will be enhanced to be capable in prediction of remaining useful life of HRMS.

• Journal of the Korean Institute of Electrical and Electronic Material Engineers
• /
• v.19 no.3
• /
• pp.287-291
• /
• 2006

This paper describes mechanical and electric properties of ACSR $410\;mm^2$ conductor from many of older overhead conductor. Samples of conductors itemized two division according to operation sector, green area, salt and pollution area. Samples of conductors operated various environment conditions have undergone laboratory metallurigical investigation and tensile strength torsional ductility and electrical performance. The steel core were found to have retained their original properties to a large degree in both tensile strength and the number of turns to failure. On the other hand the aluminum conductor showed reductions in tensile strength. To determine the remaining useful life of aged conductor, an unacceptable deterioration level has to established for each diagnostic procedure.

• International Journal of Fluid Machinery and Systems
• /
• v.5 no.4
• /
• pp.143-151
• /
• 2012

Predicting the future condition of machine and assessing the remaining useful life are the center of prognostics. This paper contributes a new prognostic method based on grey model and survival probability. The first step of the method is building a normal condition model then determining the error indicator. In the second step, the survival probability value is obtained based on the error indicator. Finally, grey model coupled with one-step-ahead forecasting technique are employed in the last step. This work has developed a modified grey model in order to improve the accuracy of prediction. For evaluating the proposed method, real trending data of low methane compressor acquired from condition monitoring routine were employed.

• Journal of Korean Society of Industrial and Systems Engineering
• /
• v.36 no.1
• /
• pp.78-85
• /
• 2013

Since the basic built-in-test, prognostic health management (PHM) has evolved into more sophisticated and complex systems with advanced warning and failure detection devices. Aerospace and military systems, manufacturing equipment, structural monitoring, automotive electronic systems and telecommunication systems are examples of fields in which PHM has been fully utilized. Nowadays, the automotive electronic system has become more sophisticated and increasingly dependent on accurate sensors and reliable microprocessors to perform vehicle control functions which help to detect faults and to predict the remaining useful life of automotive parts. As the complication of automotive system increases, the need for intelligent PHM becomes more significant. Given enormous potential to be developed lays ahead, this paper presents findings and discussions on the trends of automotive PHM research with the expectation to offer opportunity for further improving the current technologies and methods to be applied into more advanced applications.

• Proceedings of the KIPE Conference
• /
• 2020.08a
• /
• pp.130-132
• /
• 2020

배터리 시스템은 어플리케이션의 대영화에 따른 데이터 저장공간 문제 및 연속적인 배터리 신뢰성 문제 해결을 위한 건전성 예측 및 관리기술 접목에 관한 문제에 직면해 있으며, 이러한 문제 해결을 위해서는 배터리 시스템 신호를 통해 추출 가능한 건전성 지표 수립이 중요하다. 본 논문은 건전성 지표를 물리적, 간접적 지표로써 정의하고, 사이클 노화 데이터를 통해 건전성 지표로써의 성능을 검증하였다.

• Smart Structures and Systems
• /
• v.18 no.3
• /
• pp.569-584
• /
• 2016

This paper presents a method for stochastic modelling of fatigue crack growth and optimising inspection and maintenance strategy for the structural members of steel bridges. The fatigue crack evolution is considered as a stochastic process with uncertainties, and the Gamma process is adopted to simulate the propagation of fatigue crack in steel bridge members. From the stochastic modelling for fatigue crack growth, the probability of failure caused by fatigue is predicted over the service life of steel bridge members. The remaining fatigue life of steel bridge members is determined by comparing the fatigue crack length with its predetermined threshold. Furthermore, the probability of detection is adopted to consider the uncertainties in detecting fatigue crack by using existing damage detection techniques. A multi-objective optimisation problem is proposed and solved by a genetic algorithm to determine the optimised inspection and maintenance strategy for the fatigue affected steel bridge members. The optimised strategy is achieved by minimizing the life-cycle cost, including the inspection, maintenance and failure costs, and maximizing the service life after necessary intervention. The number of intervention during the service life is also taken into account to investigate the relationship between the service life and the cost for maintenance. The results from numerical examples show that the proposed method can provide a useful approach for cost-effective inspection and maintenance strategy for fatigue affected steel bridges.