• Journal of the Korea Institute of Military Science and Technology
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• v.16 no.5
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• pp.675-682
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• 2013

Reliability analysis and prediction of next failure time is critical to sustain weapon systems, concerning scheduled maintenance, spare parts replacement and maintenance interventions, etc. Since 1981, many methodology derived from various probabilistic and statistical theories has been suggested to do that activity. Nowadays, many A.I. tools have been used to support these predictions. Support Vector Regression(SVR) is a nonlinear regression technique extended from support vector machine. SVR can fit data flexibly and it has a wide variety of applications. This paper utilizes SVM and SVR with combining time series to predict the next failure time based on historical failure data. A numerical case using failure data from the military equipment is presented to demonstrate the performance of the proposed approach. Finally, the proposed approach is proved meaningful to predict next failure point and to estimate instantaneous failure rate and MTBF.

• Smart Structures and Systems
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• v.22 no.2
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• pp.193-200
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• 2018

From the viewpoint of engineering applications, the prediction of the failure of bogies plays an important role in preventing the occurrence of fatigue. Fatigue is a complex phenomenon affected by many uncertainties (such as load, environment, geometrical and material properties, and so on). The key to predict fatigue damage accurately is how to quantify these uncertainties. A Bayesian model is used to account for the uncertainty of various sources when predicting fatigue damage of structural components. In spite of improvements in the design of fatigue-sensitive structures, periodic non-destructive inspections are required for components. With the help of modern nondestructive inspection techniques, the fatigue flaws can be detected for bogie structures, and fatigue reliability can be updated by using Bayesian theorem with inspection data. A practical fatigue analysis of welded bogies is utilized to testify the effectiveness of the proposed methods.

• Magazine of the Korean Society of Agricultural Engineers
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• v.34 no.1
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• pp.66-77
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• 1992

A prototype probabilistic approach to thickness design for asphalt pavement surface course was developed using first-order second moment probability model. The tensile strain (load effect) developing at the bottom of surface layer due to the wheel load and the critical strain (resistance) of asphalt concrete were used as random variables for pavement reliability analysis. Based on the parameters for load effect and resistance data collected from reference and field, simulated data were generated by Monte Carlo method for reliability evaluation of the pavement for a typical rural highway. Thickness of pavement surface course was defined in terms of target reliability of the pavement, growth factor of traffic, design life of pavement and resistance of the asphalt concrete to be placed on the pavement. According to these rationales, prototype thickness design chrats were sugested through example studies. From these, similar design charts can be developed for many pavements if appropriate data and target reliability are determined.

• Journal of the Korean Society of Safety
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• v.16 no.4
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• pp.65-73
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• 2001

This paper is a study on the fatigue analysis using BS5400 Part10(1980), code of practice for fatigue for a double link type level luffing jib crane which has been operated since the crane was built in 1985 at a domestic pier. South Korea. In addition, on the basis of the design lift due to fatigue analysis and the number of cracks detected from the nondestructive test the structural reliability and the residual life of the crane is predicted by evaluating the expected development of detectable fatigue oracle during the next five to ten years using Paris's Law for predicting fatigue crack growth and Gaussian probability density function to be reasonable for stress ranges below the mean values determined by laboratory tests. The statistical data used for the analysis of the structural reliability and life expectancy is given in the above referred code.

• Proceedings of the Korean Reliability Society Conference
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• 2005.06a
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• pp.199-208
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• 2005

In the calendar and the advertising catalog, the surface Is usually coated by coating polypropylene film. The delamination failure of coating film depends on surface roughness and quality of the substrate paper. In this paper, the mechanisms of delamination failure between the coating film and the paper is investigated by using the root cause analysis as one of techniques of reliability evaluation. The papers used in failure analysis are three kind products made by two domestic and one foreign companies. It found that the main causes of delamination failure between the coating film and the paper were the creation of microvoids caused by shape of filler and their growth caused by contraction of paper.

• International journal of steel structures
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• v.18 no.4
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• pp.1242-1251
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• 2018

Not all loads contribute to fatigue crack propagation in the welded detail of steel bridges when they are subjected to variable amplitude loading. For fatigue assessment, therefore, non-contributing stress cycles should be truncated. However, stress range truncation is not considered during typical fatigue reliability assessment. When applying the first order reliability method, stress range truncation occurs mismatch between the expected number of cycles to failure and the number of cycles obtained at the time of evaluation, because the expected number of cycles only counts the stress cycles that contribute to fatigue crack growth. Herein, we introduce a calibration factor to coordinate the expected number of cycles to failure to the equivalent value which includes both contributing and non-contributing stress cycles. The effectiveness of stress range truncation and the proposed calibration factor was validated via case studies.

• Structural Engineering and Mechanics
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• v.17 no.1
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• pp.29-50
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• 2004

A total life model was developed to assess the service life of aging aircraft. The primary focus of this paper is the development of crack growth life projection using the response surface method. Crack growth life projection is a necessary component of the total life model. The study showed that the number of load cycles N needed for a crack to propagate to a specified size can be linearly related to the geometric parameter, material, and stress level of the component considered when all the variables are transformed to logarithmic values. By the Central Limit theorem, the ln N was approximated by Gaussian distribution. This Gaussian model compared well with the histograms of the number of load cycles generated from simulated crack growth curves. The outcome of this study will aid engineers in designing their crack growth experiments to develop the stochastic crack growth models for service life assessments.

• Journal of Korean Institute of Industrial Engineers
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• v.33 no.4
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• pp.487-493
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• 2007

In this paper, we deal with an optimal software-release problem of determining the time to stop testing and release the software system to the user. The optimal release time problem is considered from maintenance like the periodic distribution of service packs and the unpredictable distribution of patches after the release. Moreover, the environment of software error-detection during operation differs from the environment during testing. This paper proposes the software reliability growth model which incorporates periodic service packs, unpredictable patches and operational environment. Based on the proposed model, we derive optimal release time to minimize total cost composed of fixing an error, testing and maintenance. Using numerical examples, optimal release time is determined and illustrated.

• Structural Engineering and Mechanics
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• v.75 no.4
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• pp.455-464
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• 2020

Reinforcement corrosion is one of the major problems in the durability of reinforced concrete structures exposed to aggressive environments. Deterioration caused by reinforcement corrosion reduces the durability and the safety margin of concrete structures, causing excessive costs in managing these structures safely. This paper aims to investigate the effects of reinforcement corrosion on the load bearing capacity deterioration of the corroded reinforced concrete structures. A new analytical method is proposed to predict the crack growth of cover concrete and evaluate the residual strength of concrete structures with corroded reinforcement failing in bond. The structural performance indicators, such as concrete crack growth and flexural strength deterioration rate, are assumed to be a stochastic process for lifetime distribution modelling of structural performance deterioration over time during the life cycle. The Weibull life evolution model is employed for analysing lifetime reliability and estimating remaining useful life of the corroded concrete structures. The results for the worked example show that the proposed approach can provide a reliable method for lifetime performance assessment of the corroded reinforced concrete structures.

• The Transactions of the Korea Information Processing Society
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• v.7 no.4
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• pp.1103-1111
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• 2000

The hyper-geometric distribution software reliability growth model (HGDM) usually assumes that all the software faults detected are perfectly removed without introducing new faults. However, since new faults can be introduced during the test-and-debug phase, the perfect debugging assumption should be relaxed. In this context, Hou, Kuo and Chang [7] developed a modified HGDM for imperfect debugging environment, assuming tat the learning factor is constant. In this paper we extend the existing imperfect debugging HGDM for tow respects: introduction of random sensitivity factor and allowance of variable learning factor. Then the statistical characteristics of he suggested model are studied and its applications to two real data sets are demonstrated.