• Title/Summary/Keyword: Relative risk

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Excess Deaths During the COVID-19 Pandemic in Southern Iran: Estimating the Absolute Count and Relative Risk Using Ecological Data

  • Mohammadreza Zakeri;Alireza Mirahmadizadeh;Habibollah Azarbakhsh;Seyed Sina Dehghani;Maryam Janfada;Mohammad Javad Moradian;Leila Moftakhar;Mehdi Sharafi;Alireza Heiran
    • Journal of Preventive Medicine and Public Health
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    • v.57 no.2
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    • pp.120-127
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    • 2024
  • Objectives: The coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic led to increased mortality rates. To assess this impact, this ecological study aimed to estimate the excess death counts in southern Iran. Methods: The study obtained weekly death counts by linking the National Death Registry and Medical Care Monitoring Center repositories. The P-score was initially estimated using a simple method that involved calculating the difference between the observed and expected death counts. The interrupted time series analysis was then used to calculate the mean relative risk (RR) of death during the first year of the pandemic. Results: Our study found that there were 5571 excess deaths from all causes (P-score=33.29%) during the first year of the COVID-19 pandemic, with 48.03% of these deaths directly related to COVID-19. The pandemic was found to increase the risk of death from all causes (RR, 1.26; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.19 to 1.33), as well as in specific age groups such as those aged 35-49 (RR, 1.21; 95% CI, 1.12 to 1.32), 50-64 (RR, 1.38; 95% CI, 1.28 to 1.49), and ≥65 (RR, 1.29; 95% CI, 1.12 to 1.32) years old. Furthermore, there was an increased risk of death from cardiovascular diseases (RR, 1.17; 95% CI, 1.11 to 1.22). Conclusions: There was a 26% increase in the death count in southern Iran during the COVID-19 pandemic. More than half of these excess deaths were not directly related to COVID-19, but rather other causes, with cardiovascular diseases being a major contributor.

Risk Assessment with the Development of CAES (Compressed Air Energy Storage) Underground Storage Cavern (CAES(Compresses Air Energy Storage) 지하 저장 공동 개발에 따른 리스크 사정)

  • Yoon, Yong-Kyun;Seo, Saem-Mul;Choi, Byung-Hee
    • Tunnel and Underground Space
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    • v.23 no.4
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    • pp.319-325
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    • 2013
  • The objective of this study is to assess risks which might occur in connection with the storage of the highly compressed air in underground opening. Risk factors were selected throughout literature survey and analysis for the characteristic of CAES. Large risk factors were categorized in three components; planning and design phase, construction phase, and operation & maintenance phases. Large category was composed of 8 medium risk groups and 24 sub-risks. AHP technique was applied in order to analyze the questionnaires answered by experts and high-risk factors were selected by evaluating the relative importance of risks. AHP analysis showed that the operation & maintenance phases are the highest risk group among three components of large category and the highest risk group of eight medium risk groups is risk associated with the quality and safety. Risk having the highest risk level in 24 sub-risks is evaluated to be a failure of tightness security of inner containment storing compressed air.

Potential Risk Assessment of Cardiovascular Disease in Low Calcium-Score (낮은 칼슘 수치에서 심혈관질환의 잠재 위험도 평가)

  • Yoo, Heangsoo;Park, Jikoon;Jung, Bongjae;Noh, Sicheol;Choi, IlhHong;Jung, Hyungjn;Kang, Sangsik
    • Journal of the Korean Society of Radiology
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    • v.7 no.6
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    • pp.369-376
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    • 2013
  • Prepared her for the early detection of the risk of cardiovascular disease prevention for the various attempts being made ill through a lot of research to the criteria of coronary artery calcification, but the figure is more than 100 the progress of the flow can be expected to be was. In this study, we quantify the correlation between body composition analysis, blood lipid levels of calcium and public asymptomatic even at low calcium levels in comparison with the existing studies by analyzing potential risk of cardiovascular disease will be represented on the were evaluated. Studies, the calcium scores in the body composition analysis "1-10", and when "11-100" when there was a significant correlation in BMI and WHR look more normal frequency range of the mean values in the normal range meomulreoteuna 21% relative HDL and TG in lipid profiles, no significant correlation look more normal frequency range of risk were derived from the mean values in the normal range, 21% to 40% of the relative risk were derived. meomulreoteuna. In addition, there is no correlation between BFM and BMR Also, average increases in the frequency of a higher standard was higher relative risk derived 31 to 93%, and geological correlation test TC above 20mg/dl atherosclerotic sclerosis seems to be the value of HDL to act to remove cholesterol from atheroma already looking at the same time to suppress the occurrence of atherosclerosis, increased LDL showed higher values occurs rapidly increasing. At this time, the relative risk of 43-50% have been identified. In other words, even when calcium levels are low, that is inherent in the incidence of cardiovascular disease was unknown.

Development of Mid-range Forecast Models of Forest Fire Risk Using Machine Learning (기계학습 기반의 산불위험 중기예보 모델 개발)

  • Park, Sumin;Son, Bokyung;Im, Jungho;Kang, Yoojin;Kwon, Chungeun;Kim, Sungyong
    • Korean Journal of Remote Sensing
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    • v.38 no.5_2
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    • pp.781-791
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    • 2022
  • It is crucial to provide forest fire risk forecast information to minimize forest fire-related losses. In this research, forecast models of forest fire risk at a mid-range (with lead times up to 7 days) scale were developed considering past, present and future conditions (i.e., forest fire risk, drought, and weather) through random forest machine learning over South Korea. The models were developed using weather forecast data from the Global Data Assessment and Prediction System, historical and current Fire Risk Index (FRI) information, and environmental factors (i.e., elevation, forest fire hazard index, and drought index). Three schemes were examined: scheme 1 using historical values of FRI and drought index, scheme 2 using historical values of FRI only, and scheme 3 using the temporal patterns of FRI and drought index. The models showed high accuracy (Pearson correlation coefficient >0.8, relative root mean square error <10%), regardless of the lead times, resulting in a good agreement with actual forest fire events. The use of the historical FRI itself as an input variable rather than the trend of the historical FRI produced more accurate results, regardless of the drought index used.

Assessing the Contributions of Non-bank Financial Institutions (NBFI) and ELS Issuance to Systemic Risk in Korea

  • JONG SOO HONG
    • KDI Journal of Economic Policy
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    • v.46 no.1
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    • pp.21-51
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    • 2024
  • Since the Global Financial Crisis of 2008-2009, the importance of nonbank financial institutions in macroprudential management has increased significantly. Consequently, major countries and international financial institutions have been actively discussing and implementing macroprudential supervision and regulation for non-bank financial institutions (NBFI). In this context, this paper analyzes the systemic risk of both banks and non-bank sectors (securities firms and insurance companies) in South Korea over different time periods. Using the widely recognized ΔCoVaR methodology for measuring systemic risk, the analysis reveals that systemic risk increased substantially across all three sectors (banks, securities firms, and insurance companies) during the Global Financial Crisis, the European Sovereign Debt Crisis, and the COVID-19 pandemic. Although the banking sector exhibited relatively high systemic risk compared to the securities and insurance sectors, the relative differences in systemic risk varied across the different crisis periods. Notably, during the margin call crisis in March of 2020, the gap in systemic risk between the banking and securities sectors decreased significantly compared to that during both the Global Financial Crisis and the European Sovereign Debt Crisis, indicating that securities firms had a more substantial impact on risk in the overall financial system during this period. Furthermore, I analyze the impact of the issuance of equity-linked securities (ELS) by financial institutions on systemic risk, as measured by ΔCoVaR, finding that an increase in the outstanding balance of ELS issuance by financial institutions had an impact on increasing ΔCoVaR during the three crisis periods. These findings underscore the growing importance of non-bank financial institutions in relation to South Korea's macroprudential management and supervision. To address this evolving landscape, enhanced monitoring and regulatory measures focusing on non-bank systemic risk are essential components of maintaining financial stability in the country.

A Development of Docking Phase Analysis Tool for Nanosatellite

  • Jeong, Miri;Cho, Dong-Hyun;Kim, Hae-Dong
    • Journal of Astronomy and Space Sciences
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    • v.37 no.3
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    • pp.187-197
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    • 2020
  • In order to avoid the high cost and high risk of demonstration mission of rendezvous-docking technology, missions using nanosatellites have recently been increasing. However, there are few successful mission cases due to many limitations of nanosatellites like small size, power limitation, and limited performances of sensor, thruster, and controller. To improve the probability of rendezvous-docking mission success using nanosatellite, a rendezvous-docking phase analysis tool for nanosatellites is developed. The tool serves to analyze the relative position and attitude control of the chaser satellite at the docking phase. In this tool, the Model Predictive Controller (MPC) is implemented as a controller, and Extended Kalman Filter (EKF) is adopted as a filter for noise filtering. To verify the performance and effectiveness of the developed tool for nanosatellites, simulation study was conducted. Consequently, we confirmed that this tool can be used for the analysis of relative position and attitude control for nanosatellites in the rendezvous-docking phase.

PORTFOLIO SELECTION WITH NONNEGATIVE WEALTH CONSTRAINTS: A DYNAMIC PROGRAMMING APPROACH

  • Shin, Yong Hyun
    • Journal of the Chungcheong Mathematical Society
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    • v.27 no.1
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    • pp.145-149
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    • 2014
  • I consider the optimal consumption and portfolio selection problem with nonnegative wealth constraints using the dynamic programming approach. I use the constant relative risk aversion (CRRA) utility function and disutility to derive the closed-form solutions.