• Title/Summary/Keyword: Relative bias

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Forecast and verification of perceived temperature using a mesoscale model over the Korean Peninsula during 2007 summer (중규모 수치 모델 자료를 이용한 2007년 여름철 한반도 인지온도 예보와 검증)

  • Byon, Jae-Young;Kim, Jiyoung;Choi, Byoung-Cheol;Choi, Young-Jean
    • Atmosphere
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    • v.18 no.3
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    • pp.237-248
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    • 2008
  • A thermal index which considers metabolic heat generation of human body is proposed for operational forecasting. The new thermal index, Perceived Temperature (PT), is forecasted using Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) mesoscale model and validated. Forecasted PT shows the characteristics of diurnal variation and topographic and latitudinal effect. Statistical skill scores such as correlation, bias, and RMSE are employed for objective verification of PT and input meteorological variables which are used for calculating PT. Verification result indicates that the accuracy of air temperature and wind forecast is higher in the initial forecast time, while relative humidity is improved as the forecast time increases. The forecasted PT during 2007 summer is lower than PT calculated by observation data. The predicted PT has a minimum Root-Mean-Square-Error (RMSE) of $7-8^{\circ}C$ at 9-18 hour forecast. Spatial distribution of PT shows that it is overestimated in western region, while PT in middle-eastern region is underestimated due to strong wind and low temperature forecast. Underestimation of wind speed and overestimation of relative humidity have caused higher PT than observation in southern region. The predicted PT from the mesoscale model gives appropriate information as a thermal index forecast. This study suggests that forecasted PT is applicable to the prediction of health warning based on the relationship between PT and mortality.

An analysis of consumer choice between the Internet and TV home shopping channels (인터넷 및 TV 홈쇼핑 채널 간의 소비자 선호 결정 요인)

  • Lee, Gwang-Hoon
    • Journal of Distribution Research
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    • v.12 no.4
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    • pp.27-47
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    • 2007
  • Using survey data and the Heckit model that adequately controls the sample selection bias, we analyze shoppers expenditure through two major emerging shopping channels: Internet shopping and TV home shopping channels. Age, Internet experience, daily Internet usage, the number of computers are factors that affect the ratio of consumers' expenditure through Internet shopping relative to the expenditure through TV home shopping. Shopping frequency which represents the shoppers' incentives to reduce transaction costs also has a positive effect on the proportion of shoppers' expenditure through the Internet shopping. Shoppers' perceptions of convenience, reliability, speed, and diversity are also shown to affect shoppers' relative expenditure ratio through Internet shopping. In contrast, shoppers' perception of prices does not seem to affect their purchasing behavior.

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Correlation Between the “seeing FWHM” of Satellite Optical Observations and Meteorological Data at the OWL-Net Station, Mongolia

  • Bae, Young-Ho;Jo, Jung Hyun;Yim, Hong-Suh;Park, Young-Sik;Park, Sun-Youp;Moon, Hong Kyu;Choi, Young-Jun;Jang, Hyun-Jung;Roh, Dong-Goo;Choi, Jin;Park, Maru;Cho, Sungki;Kim, Myung-Jin;Choi, Eun-Jung;Park, Jang-Hyun
    • Journal of Astronomy and Space Sciences
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    • v.33 no.2
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    • pp.137-146
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    • 2016
  • The correlation between meteorological data collected at the optical wide-field patrol network (OWL-Net) Station No. 1 and the seeing of satellite optical observation data was analyzed. Meteorological data and satellite optical observation data from June 2014 to November 2015 were analyzed. The analyzed meteorological data were the outdoor air temperature, relative humidity, wind speed, and cloud index data, and the analyzed satellite optical observation data were the seeing full-width at half-maximum (FWHM) data. The annual meteorological pattern for Mongolia was analyzed by collecting meteorological data over four seasons, with data collection beginning after the installation and initial set-up of the OWL-Net Station No. 1 in Mongolia. A comparison of the meteorological data and the seeing of the satellite optical observation data showed that the seeing degrades as the wind strength increases and as the cloud cover decreases. This finding is explained by the bias effect, which is caused by the fact that the number of images taken on the less cloudy days was relatively small. The seeing FWHM showed no clear correlation with either temperature or relative humidity.

Measurement Bias of Heat Flux Gauge based on Calibration Constant supported by Manufacturer (제조사 보정상수에 기인한 열유속계의 측정 오차)

  • Kim, Sung-Chan;Hamins, Anthony
    • Fire Science and Engineering
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    • v.32 no.4
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    • pp.1-6
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    • 2018
  • As a preliminary study to quantify the measurement uncertainty of the Schmidt-Boelter type heat flux gauge, the present study has been conducted to evaluate the measurement error due to the calibration constant supported by manufacturer. Calibrations of heat flux gauges are performed at NIST Fire Research Division using a calibration facility with heat source of a 2000 W halogen-tungsten filament lamp and the calibration constant is obtained by comparing the response of the reference and a standard heat flux gauge at the same irradiance conditions. Calibration for heat flux gauges made by three different manufacturers is compared with their factory calibration constant. Relative error due to fluctuation of output signal from heat flux gauges does not exceed 1% of the mean value and the relative error between calibration of this study and factory calibration constant ranged from 1.5% to 14.3%. The present study shows that a continuous and periodic calibration is necessary for accurate heat flux measurement.

Insights into factors affecting synonymous codon usage in apple mosaic virus and its host adaptability

  • Pourrahim, R.;Farzadfar, Sh.
    • Journal of Plant Biotechnology
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    • v.49 no.1
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    • pp.46-60
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    • 2022
  • The genetic variability and population structure of apple mosaic virus (ApMV) have been studied; however, synonymous codon usage patterns influencing the survival rates and fitness of ApMV have not been reported. Based on phylogenetic analyses of 52 ApMV coat protein (CP) sequences obtained from apple, pear, and hazelnut, ApMV isolates were clustered into two groups. High molecular diversity in GII may indicate their recent expansion. A constant and conserved genomic composition of the CP sequences was inferred from the low codon usage bias. Nucleotide composition and relative synonymous codon usage (RSCU) analysis indicated that the ApMV CP gene is AU-rich, but G- and U-ending codons are favored while coding amino acids. This unequal use of nucleotides together with parity rule 2 and the effective number of codon (ENC) plots indicate that mutation pressure together with natural selection drives codon usage patterns in the CP gene. However, in this combination, selection pressure plays a more crucial role. Based on principal component analysis plots, ApMV seems to have originated from apple trees in Europe. However, according to the relative codon deoptimization index and codon adaptation index (CAI) analyses, ApMV exhibited the greatest fitness to hazelnut. As inferred from the results of the similarity index analysis, hazelnut has a major role in shaping ApMV RSCU patterns, which is consistent with the CAI analysis results. This study contributes to the understanding of plant virus evolution, reveals novel information about ApMV evolutionary fitness, and helps find better ApMV management strategies.

Enhancing Medium-Range Forecast Accuracy of Temperature and Relative Humidity over South Korea using Minimum Continuous Ranked Probability Score (CRPS) Statistical Correction Technique (연속 순위 확률 점수를 활용한 통합 앙상블 모델에 대한 기온 및 습도 후처리 모델 개발)

  • Hyejeong Bok;Junsu Kim;Yeon-Hee Kim;Eunju Cho;Seungbum Kim
    • Atmosphere
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    • v.34 no.1
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    • pp.23-34
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    • 2024
  • The Korea Meteorological Administration has improved medium-range weather forecasts by implementing post-processing methods to minimize numerical model errors. In this study, we employ a statistical correction technique known as the minimum continuous ranked probability score (CRPS) to refine medium-range forecast guidance. This technique quantifies the similarity between the predicted values and the observed cumulative distribution function of the Unified Model Ensemble Prediction System for Global (UM EPSG). We evaluated the performance of the medium-range forecast guidance for surface air temperature and relative humidity, noting significant enhancements in seasonal bias and root mean squared error compared to observations. Notably, compared to the existing the medium-range forecast guidance, temperature forecasts exhibit 17.5% improvement in summer and 21.5% improvement in winter. Humidity forecasts also show 12% improvement in summer and 23% improvement in winter. The results indicate that utilizing the minimum CRPS for medium-range forecast guidance provide more reliable and improved performance than UM EPSG.

The etching characteristics of $(Ba_{0.6}Sr_{0.4})TiO_{3}$ film Using $Ar/CF_{4}$ Inductively Coupled Plasma ($Ar/CF_{4}$ 유도결합 플라즈마로 식각된 $(Ba_{0.6}Sr_{0.4})TiO_{3}$ 박막의 특성분석)

  • Kang, Pill-Seung;Kim, Kyoung-Tae;Kim, Dong-Pyo;Kim, Chang-Il;Lee, Soo-Jae
    • Proceedings of the Korean Institute of Electrical and Electronic Material Engineers Conference
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    • 2002.05b
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    • pp.16-19
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    • 2002
  • (Ba,Sr)TiO3(BST) thin film is an attractive material for the application in high-density dynamic random access memories (DRAMs) because of the high relative dielectric constant and small variation in dielectric properties with frequency. In this study, (Ba0.6,Sr0.4)TiO3 thin films on Pt/Ti/SiO2/Si substrates were deposited by a sol-gel method and the CF4/Ar inductively coupled plasma (ICP) etching behavior of BST thin films had been investigatedby varying the process parameters such as chamber pressure, ICP power, and substrate bias voltage. To analysis the composition of surface residue following etching BST films etched with different Ar/CF4 gas mixing ratio were investigated using x-ray photoelectron spectroscopy (XPS) and secondary ion mass spectrometer (SIMS).

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Spatial Spectrum Estimation of Broadband Incoherent Signals using Rotation of Signal Subspace Via Signal Enhancement (신호부각에 의한 신호 부공간 회전을 이용한 광대역 인코히어런트 신호의 공간 스펙트럼 추정)

  • 김영수;이계산;김정근
    • The Journal of Korean Institute of Electromagnetic Engineering and Science
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    • v.15 no.7
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    • pp.669-676
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    • 2004
  • In this paper, a new algorithm is proposed for resolving multiple broadband incoherent sources incident on a uniform linear array. The proposed method dose not require any initial estimates for finding the transformation matrix, while the Coherent Signal-Subspace Method(CSM) proposed by Wang and Kaveh requires preliminary estimates of multigroup source location. An effective procedure is derived for finding the enhanced spectral density matrix at the center frequency using signal enhancement approach and then constructing a common signal subspace by selecting a unitary transformation matrix which is obtained via rotation of signal subspace method. The proposed approach is found to provide superior performance relative to that obtained with the CSM method in terms of sample bias of direction-of-arrival estimates.

PREPROCESSING EFFECTS ON ON-LINE SSC MEASUREMENT OF FUJI APPLE BY NIR SPECTROSCOPY

  • Ryu, D.S.;Noh, S.H.;Hwang, I.G.
    • Proceedings of the Korean Society for Agricultural Machinery Conference
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    • 2000.11c
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    • pp.560-568
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    • 2000
  • The aims of this research were to investigate the preprocessing effect of spectrum data on prediction performance and to develop a robust model to predict SSC in intact apple. Spectrum data of 320 Fuji apples were measured with the on-line transmittance measurement system at the wavelength range of 550∼1100nm. Preprocess methods adopted for the tests were Savitzky Golay, MSC, SNV, first derivative and OSC. Several combinations of those methods were applied to the raw spectrum data set to investigate the relative effect of each method on the performance of the calibration model. PLS method was used to regress the preprocessed data set and the SSCs of samples, and the cross-validation was to select the optimal number of PLS factors. Smoothing and scattering corection were essential in increasing the prediction performance of PLS regression model and the OSC contributed to reduction of the number of PLS factors. The first derivative resulted in unfavorable effect on the prediction performance. MSC and SNV showed similar effect. A robust calibration model could be developed by the preprocessing combination of Savitzky Golay smoothing, MSC and OSC, which resulted in SEP= 0.507, bias=0.032 and R$^2$=0.8823.

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Time-to-go Polynomial Guidance Law for Target Observability Enhancement (표적 가관측성 향상을 위한 Time-to-go 다항식 유도법칙)

  • Kim, Tae-Hun;Lee, Chang-Hun;Tahk, Min-Jea
    • Journal of the Korean Society for Aeronautical & Space Sciences
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    • v.39 no.1
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    • pp.16-24
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    • 2011
  • In this paper, we propose a new guidance law for target observability enhancement, which can control both terminal impact angle and acceleration. The proposed guidance law is simple form, combined conventional time-to-go polynomial guidance and a additional bias term which consists of relative position and proportional gain. The guidance law provides oscillatory flight trajectory and it maintains the conventional time-to-go polynomial guidance performance. To investigate the characteristics of the guidance law, we derive the closed-form solution, and various simulations are performed for proving the validity of the proposed guidance.