• Title/Summary/Keyword: Relative Uncertainty

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Study on the influence of structural and ground motion uncertainties on the failure mechanism of transmission towers

  • Zhaoyang Fu;Li Tian;Xianchao Luo;Haiyang Pan;Juncai Liu;Chuncheng Liu
    • Earthquakes and Structures
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    • v.26 no.4
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    • pp.311-326
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    • 2024
  • Transmission tower structures are particularly susceptible to damage and even collapse under strong seismic ground motions. Conventional seismic analyses of transmission towers are usually performed by considering only ground motion uncertainty while ignoring structural uncertainty; consequently, the performance evaluation and failure prediction may be inaccurate. In this context, the present study numerically investigates the seismic responses and failure mechanism of transmission towers by considering multiple sources of uncertainty. To this end, an existing transmission tower is chosen, and the corresponding three-dimensional finite element model is created in ABAQUS software. Sensitivity analysis is carried out to identify the relative importance of the uncertain parameters in the seismic responses of transmission towers. The numerical results indicate that the impacts of the structural damping ratio, elastic modulus and yield strength on the seismic responses of the transmission tower are relatively large. Subsequently, a set of 20 uncertainty models are established based on random samples of various parameter combinations generated by the Latin hypercube sampling (LHS) method. An uncertainty analysis is performed for these uncertainty models to clarify the impacts of uncertain structural factors on the seismic responses and failure mechanism (ultimate bearing capacity and failure path). The numerical results show that structural uncertainty has a significant influence on the seismic responses and failure mechanism of transmission towers; different possible failure paths exist for the uncertainty models, whereas only one exists for the deterministic model, and the ultimate bearing capacity of transmission towers is more sensitive to the variation in material parameters than that in geometrical parameters. This research is expected to provide an in-depth understanding of the influence of structural uncertainty on the seismic demand assessment of transmission towers.

A Study on Uncertainty of Risk of Failure Based on Gumbel Distribution (Gumbel 분포형을 이용한 위험도에 관한 불확실성 해석)

  • Heo Jun-Haeng;Lee Dong-Jin;Shin Hong-Joon;Nam Woo-Sung
    • Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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    • v.39 no.8 s.169
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    • pp.659-668
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    • 2006
  • The uncertainty of the risk of failure of hydraulic structures can be determined by estimating the variance of the risk of failure based on the methods of moments, probability weighted moments, and maximum likelihood assuming that the underlying model is the Gumbel distribution. In this paper, the variance of the risk of failure was derived. Monte Carlo simulation was peformed to verify the characteristics of the derived formulas for various sample size, design life, nonexceedance probability, and variation coefficient. As the results, PWM showed the smallest relative bias and root mean square error than the others while ML showed the smallest ones for relatively large sample siBes regardless of design life and nonexceedance probability. Also, it was found that variation coefficient does not effect on the relative bias and relative root mean square error.

Measurement Uncertainty of Methane Concentrations from a Rice Paddy Measured by a Closed Automated Chamber System (벼논에서 폐쇄형 자동 챔버 시스템으로 측정한 메탄 농도에 대한 요인별 측정 불확도 비교)

  • Ju, Ok Jung;Kang, Namgoo;Lim, Gap June
    • Korean Journal of Environmental Agriculture
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    • v.39 no.3
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    • pp.228-236
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    • 2020
  • BACKGROUND: The closed chamber method is the most commonly used for measuring greenhouse gas emissions from rice fields. This method has the advantages of being simple, easily available and economical. However, a measurement result using the chamber method is an estimated value and is complete when the uncertainty is estimated. The methane emissions from a rice paddy account for the largest portion of the greenhouse gas emissions in the agriculture sectors. Although assessment of uncertainty components affecting methane emission from a rice paddy is necessary to take account of dispersion characteristics, research on these uncertainty components is very rare to date. The goal of this study was to elucidate influencing factors on measurement uncertainty of methane concentrations measured by a closed automated chamber system from a rice paddy. METHODS AND RESULTS: The methane sampling system is located in the rice paddy in Gyeonggi-do Agricultural Research and Extension Services (37°13'15"N, 127°02'22"E). The primary measurement uncertainty components influencing methane concentrations (influencing factors) investigated in this research were repeatability, reproducibility and calibration in the aspects of methane sampling and analytical instrumentation. The magnitudes of the relative standard uncertainty of each influencing factor were quantified and compared. CONCLUSION: Results of this study showed what influencing factors were more important in determination of methane concentrations measured using the chamber system and analytical instrumentation located in the monitoring site. Quantifying the measurement uncertainty of the methane concentrations in this study would contribute to improving measurement quality of methane fluxes.

Measurement Uncertainty of Nitrous Oxide Concentrations from a Upland Soil Measured by an Automated Open Closed Chamber Method (밭토양에서 폐쇄형 자동 챔버법으로 측정한 아산화질소 농도에 대한 측정 불확도)

  • Ju, Ok Jung;Kang, Namgoo;Lim, Gap June
    • Korean Journal of Environmental Agriculture
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    • v.39 no.3
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    • pp.237-245
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    • 2020
  • BACKGROUND: The closed chamber method is the most commonly used for measuring greenhouse gas emissions from upland fields. This method has the advantages of being simple, easily available and economical. However, uncertainty estimation is essential for accurate assessment of greenhouse gas emissions and verification of emission reductions. The nitrous oxide emissions from upland field is very important for the nitrogen budget in the agriculture sectors. Although assessment of uncertainty components affecting nitrous oxide emission from upland field is necessary to take account of dispersion characteristics, research on these uncertainty components is very rare to date. This study aims at elucidation of influencing factors on measurement uncertainty of nitrous oxide concentrations measured by an automated open closed chamber method from upland field. METHODS AND RESULTS: The nitrous oxide sampling system is located in the upland field in Gyeonggi-do Agricultural Research and Extension Services (37°13'22"N, 127°02'22"E). The primary measurement uncertainty components influencing nitrous oxide concentrations (influencing factors) investigated in this research are repeatability, reproducibility and calibration in the aspects of nitrous oxide sampling and analytical instrumentation. The magnitudes of the relative standard uncertainty of each influencing factor are quantified and compared. CONCLUSION: Results of this study show what influencing factors are more important in determination of nitrous oxide concentrations measured using the automated open closed chambers located in the monitoring site. Quantifying the measurement uncertainty of the nitrous oxide concentrations in this study would contribute to improving measurement quality of nitrous oxide fluxes.

Calculation of Uncertainty in Measuring Heat Release Rate in Room Corner Test (룸코너 시험기의 발열량 측정에 대한 불확도 산정)

  • Noh, Kwang-Chul;Kim, Chi-Hoon;Lee, Seung-Chul;Lee, Duck-Hee
    • Fire Science and Engineering
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    • v.26 no.1
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    • pp.16-22
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    • 2012
  • In fire test, accurate heat release rate measurements provide important information to define the fire safety characteristics of products. The calculation of heat release rate depends on the errors of measuring parameters in experimental set-up. In this study, the uncertainty factors of heat release rate in the room corner test facility, which is installed at Korea Railroad Research Institute, were analyzed. Through the fire testings for the KTX interior materials, the uncertainties of heat release rate were calculated. Results showed that uncertainty was high in the initial stage of fire test and gradually decreased with the growth of fire. The oxygen concentration was a major factor contributing to the combined relative standard uncertainty.

Uncertainty quantification of the power control system of a small PWR with coolant temperature perturbation

  • Li, Xiaoyu;Li, Chuhao;Hu, Yang;Yu, Yongqi;Zeng, Wenjie;Wu, Haibiao
    • Nuclear Engineering and Technology
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    • v.54 no.6
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    • pp.2048-2054
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    • 2022
  • The coolant temperature feedback coefficient is an important parameter of reactor core power control system. To study the coolant temperature feedback coefficient influence on the core power control system of small PWR, the core power control system is built with the nonlinear model and fuzzy control theory. Then, the uncertainty quantification method of reactor core parameters is established based on the Latin hypercube sampling method and the Bootstrap method. Finally, under the conditions of reactivity step perturbation and coolant inlet temperature step perturbation, uncertainty analysis for two cases is carried out. The result shows that with fuzzy controller and fuzzy PID controller, the uncertainty of the coolant temperature feedback coefficient affects the core power control system, and the maximum uncertainties of core relative power, coolant temperature deviation, fuel temperature deviation and total reactivity are acceptable.

Asymmetric Effects of Inflation Uncertainty on Facilities Investment (인플레이션 불확실성의 기업 설비투자에 대한 비대칭적 효과 분석)

  • Son, Minkyu;Chang, Youngjae
    • The Korean Journal of Applied Statistics
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    • v.27 no.1
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    • pp.123-132
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    • 2014
  • Inflation uncertainty is known to have deleterious effects on facilities investment by disturbing the corporate decision on the opportunity cost of investment. In this paper, we test the validity of this hypothesis in Korea by estimating the inflation uncertainty with both a time-varing parameter model with GARCH disturbances and the relative price volatility and then, estimate the facilities investment equation which includes those uncertainty indicators. The uncertainty indexes estimated by the above-mentioned methods continue to fluctuate even after the inflation rate has dropped dramatically reflecting the structural changes of Korea's economy since the financial crisis in 1997. As a result of estimation of the investment equation by both OLS and GMM, we find the inflation uncertainty has a negative effect on facilities investment with a statistical significance. Moreover, by means of Markov-switching regression model utilized to verify the non-linearity of this relationship, we draw a conclusion that this negative effect of inflation uncertainty heightens asymmetrically during the downturn periods of business cycle.

A Study on the Statistical Method for the Target Component of a Glucose-lowering Functional Material in Extracts of Evening Primerose Seeds (혈당상승억제 기능성 소재인 달맞이꽃종자 추출물의 지표물질 분석법의 통계적 검증에 대한 연구)

  • Park, Sang-Wook;Bang, Joon Seok;Lee, Wonjae
    • Korean Journal of Clinical Pharmacy
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    • v.26 no.1
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    • pp.70-76
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    • 2016
  • Background: The use of the extracts from evening primrose seeds as a health functional food has been gradually increased. Therefore, the monitoring and screening process has been considerably required for its quality control. Objective: This study aimed to estimate the measurement uncertainty associated with determination of penta-o-galloyl ${\beta}$-D-glucose (PGG) in extracts from evening primrose seeds by high-performance liquid chromatography. Methods: The sources of measurement uncertainty was expressed in accordance with mathematical/statistical theories of GUM & EURACHEM Guide. The expanded uncertainty was calculated by using the relative standard uncertainty between analytical result and sources of uncertainty in measurement (sample weight, final volume, extraction volume, standard solution, matrix and instrument etc). Results: In the results of 95% confidence interval, the uncertainty in measurement was $10,253.34{\pm}1,844.50{\mu}g/kg$ (k = 2.0). Conclusion: In this study, it showed that the value of uncertainty in measurement for determination of PGG in extracts from evening primrose seeds by HPLC has about 18.0% influence on PGG contents of the analytical results. The results would be very useful for the monitoring and screening of evening primrose seeds marketed in Korea for its quality control as dietary supplement.

Large Force Measuring System Using Build-up Technique; (Build-up 기법을 이용한 대용량 힘 측정 시스템 개발)

  • Kang, Dae-Im;Song, Hou-Keun
    • Transactions of the Korean Society of Mechanical Engineers A
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    • v.21 no.3
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    • pp.477-484
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    • 1997
  • This paper describes the build-up force measuring system of 9.9 MN capacity which consists of nine force transducers of each having 1.1 MN capacity. We have specially designed a force transducer for a build-up force measuring system to reduce the uncertainty of a build-up system and to accomodate the new test procedure for a build-up system. It reveals that the relative uncertainty of the force measuring system is less than 1.5*10$^{-4}$ in the ran9e of 1-4.5 MN irrespective of loading direction. The force measuring system may be used to calibrate a 10 MN force standard machine to be used as a large force standard in Korea.