• Title/Summary/Keyword: Relative Bias

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Estimation of Design Rainfall by the Regional Frequency Analysis using Higher Probability Weighted Moments and GIS Techniques(l ) - On the method of L-moments- (고차확률가중모멘트법에 의한 지역화빈도분석과 GIS기법에 의한 설계강우량 추정(II) - L-모멘트법을 중심으로 -)

  • 이순혁;박종화;류경식
    • Magazine of the Korean Society of Agricultural Engineers
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    • v.43 no.5
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    • pp.70-82
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    • 2001
  • This study was conducted to derive the regional design rainfall by the regional frequency analysis based on the regionalization of the precipitation suggested by the first report of this project. Using the L-moment ratios and Kolmogorov-Smirnov test, the underlying regional probability distribution was identified to be the Generalized extreme value distribution among applied distributions. Regional and at-site parameters of the generalized extreme value distribution were estimated by the linear combination of the probability weighted moments, L-moment. The regional and at-site analysis for the design rainfall were tested by Monte Carlo simulation. Relative root-mean-square error(RRMSE), relative bias(RBIAS) and relative reduction(RR) in RRMSE were computed and compared with those resulting from at-site Monte Carlo simulation. All show that the regional analysis procedure can substantially reduce the RRMSE, RBIAS and RR in RRMSE in the prediction of design rainfall. Consequently, optimal design rainfalls following the legions and consecutive durations were derived by the regional frequency analysis.

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The Influence of Presentation Mode on Preference of the Meaningful Entities: The Interaction between Inward Bias and Canonical View Point (의미 있는 개체 제시 방식이 선호도에 미치는 영향: 중심 편향 원리와 규범적 관점의 상호작용을 중심으로)

  • Hye-Nyeong Chung;Shin-Ae Yoon;Hyun-Suk Lee;U-Pyong Hong
    • Science of Emotion and Sensibility
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    • v.26 no.2
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    • pp.103-116
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    • 2023
  • This study aims to investigate the interaction between inward bias and canonical viewpoint, which are factors known to affect preference for meaningful objects. It also considered the familiarity of each entity in terms of their influence on the existence of a canonical viewpoint and demonstrated whether the relative strength of two preferences varies depending on familiarity. To confirm this, we conducted a behavior experiment using a two-alternative forced-choice task. The experimental stimuli were eight single objects for familiarity level (high/low), whereas the entity's inward bias and canonical viewpoint were observed or violated. Results showed that when inward bias was obeyed, the frequency of being chosen as a preferred option was higher, and the reaction time for preference judgment was shorter. However, the observation of a canonical viewpoint did not affect frequency and reaction time. Moreover, familiarity played an interference role in aesthetic judgment. These results indicate that inward bias is stronger than canonical viewpoint, ultimately implying that a single object's interaction with the visual context is superior to the entity's attribute as regards to preference judgment.

Assessment of Frequency Analysis using Daily Rainfall Data of HadGEM3-RA Climate Model (HadGEM3-RA 기후모델 일강우자료를 이용한 빈도해석 성능 평가)

  • Kim, Sunghun;Kim, Hanbeen;Jung, Younghun;Heo, Jun-Haeng
    • Journal of Wetlands Research
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    • v.21 no.spc
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    • pp.51-60
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    • 2019
  • In this study, we performed At-site Frequency Analysis(AFA) and Regional Frequency Analysis(RFA) using the observed and climate change scenario data, and the relative root mean squared error(RMMSE) was compared and analyzed for both approaches through Monte Carlo simulation. To evaluate the rainfall quantile, the daily rainfall data were extracted for 615 points in Korea from HadGEM3-RA(12.5km) climate model data, one of the RCM(Regional Climate Model) data provided by the Korea Meteorological Administration(KMA). Quantile mapping(QM) and inverse distance squared methods(IDSM) were applied for bias correction and spatial disaggregation. As a result, it is shown that the RFA estimates more accurate rainfall quantile than AFA, and it is expected that the RFA could be reasonable when estimating the rainfall quantile based on climate change scenarios.

A discretization method of the three dimensional heat flow equation with excellent convergence characteristics (우수한 수렴특성을 갖는 3차원 열흐름 방정식의 이산화 방법)

  • Lee, Eun-Gu;Yun, Hyun-Min;Kim, Cheol-Seong
    • Journal of IKEEE
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    • v.6 no.2 s.11
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    • pp.136-145
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    • 2002
  • The simulator for the analysis of the lattice temperature under the steady-state condition is developed. The heat flow equation using the Slotboom variables is discretized and the integration method of the thermal conductivity without using the numerical analysis method is presented. The simulations are executed on the $N^+P$ junction diode and BJT to verify the proposed method. The average relative error of the lattice temperature of $N^+P$ diode compared with DAVINCI is 2% when 1.4[V] forward bias is applied and the average relative error of the lattice temperature of BJT compared with MEDICI is 3% when 5.0[V] is applied to the collector contact and 0.5[V] is applied to the base contact. BANDIS using the proposed method of integration of thermal conductivity needs 3.45 times of matrix solution to solve one bias step and DAVINCI needs 5.1 times of matrix solution MEDICI needs 4.3 times of matrix solution.

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The Analysis of Changma Structure using Radiosonde Observational Data from KEOP-2007: Part I. the Assessment of the Radiosonde Data (KEOP-2007 라디오존데 관측자료를 이용한 장마 특성 분석: Part I. 라디오존데 관측 자료 평가 분석)

  • Kim, Ki-Hoon;Kim, Yeon-Hee;Chang, Dong-Eon
    • Atmosphere
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    • v.19 no.2
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    • pp.213-226
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    • 2009
  • In order to investigate the characteristics of Changma over the Korean peninsula, KEOP-2007 IOP (Intensive Observing Period) was conducted from 15 June 2007 to 15 July 2007. KEOP-2007 IOP is high spatial and temporal radiosonde observations (RAOB) which consisted of three special stations (Munsan, Haenam, and Ieodo) from National Institute of Meteorological Research, five operational stations (Sokcho, Baengnyeongdo, Pohang, Heuksando, and Gosan) from Korea Meteorological Administration (KMA), and two operational stations (Osan and Gwangju) from Korean Air Force (KAF) using four different types of radiosonde sensors. The error statistics of the sensor of radiosonde were investigated using quality control check. The minimum and maximum error frequency appears at the sensor of RS92-SGP and RS1524L respectively. The error frequency of DFM-06 tends to increase below 200 hPa but RS80-15L and RS1524L show vice versa. Especially, the error frequency of RS1524L tends to increase rapidly over 200 hPa. Systematic biases of radiosonde show warm biases in case of temperature and dry biases in case of relative humidity compared with ECMWF (European Center for Medium-Range Weather Forecast) analysis data and precipitable water vapor from GPS. The maximum and minimum values of systematic bias appear at the sensor of DFM-06 and RS92-SGP in case of temperature and RS80-15L and DFM-06 in case of relative humidity. The systematic warm and dry biases at all sensors tend to increase during daytime than nighttime because air temperature around sensor increases from the solar heating during daytime. Systematic biases of radiosonde are affected by the sensor type and the height of the sun but random errors are more correlated with the moisture conditions at each observation station.

$PM_{10}$ Exposure and Non-accidental Mortality in Asian Populations: A Meta-analysis of Time-series and Case-crossover Studies

  • Park, Hye Yin;Bae, Sanghyuk;Hong, Yun-Chul
    • Journal of Preventive Medicine and Public Health
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    • v.46 no.1
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    • pp.10-18
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    • 2013
  • Objectives: We investigated the association between particulate matter less than $10{\mu}m$ in aerodynamic diameter ($PM_{10}$) exposure and non-accidental mortality in Asian populations by meta-analysis, using both time-series and case-crossover analysis. Methods: Among the 819 published studies searched from PubMed and EMBASE using key words related to $PM_{10}$ exposure and non-accidental mortality in Asian countries, 8 time-series and 4 case-crossover studies were selected for meta-analysis after exclusion by selection criteria. We obtained the relative risk (RR) and 95% confidence intervals (CI) of non-accidental mortality per $10{\mu}g/m^3$ increase of daily $PM_{10}$ from each study. We used Q statistics to test the heterogeneity of the results among the different studies and evaluated for publication bias using Begg funnel plot and Egger test. Results: Testing for heterogeneity showed significance (p<0.001); thus, we applied a random-effects model. RR (95% CI) per $10{\mu}g/m^3$ increase of daily $PM_{10}$ for both the time-series and case-crossover studies combined, time-series studies relative risk only, and case-crossover studies only, were 1.0047 (1.0033 to 1.0062), 1.0057 (1.0029 to 1.0086), and 1.0027 (1.0010 to 1.0043), respectively. The non-significant Egger test suggested that this analysis was not likely to have a publication bias. Conclusions: We found a significant positive association between $PM_{10}$ exposure and non-accidental mortality among Asian populations. Continued investigations are encouraged to contribute to the health impact assessment and public health management of air pollution in Asian countries.

An Intercomparison of Counting Efficiency and the Performance of Two Whole-Body Counters According to the Type of Phantom

  • Pak, Minjung;Yoo, Jaeryong;Ha, Wi-Ho;Jin, Young-Woo
    • Journal of Radiation Protection and Research
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    • v.41 no.3
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    • pp.274-281
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    • 2016
  • Background: Whole-body counters are widely used to evaluate internal contamination of the internal presence of gamma-emitting radionuclides. In internal dosimetry, it is a basic requirement that quality control procedures be applied to verify the reliability of the measured results. The implementation of intercomparison programs plays an important role in quality control, and the accuracy of the calibration and the reliability of the results should be verified through intercomparison. In this study, we evaluated the reliability of 2 whole-body counting systems using 2 calibration methods. Materials and Methods: In this study, 2 whole-body counters were calibrated using a reference male bottle manikin absorption (BOMAB) phantom and a Radiation Management Corporation (RMC-II) phantom. The reliability of the whole-body counting systems was evaluated by performing an intercomparison with International Atomic Energy Agencyto assess counting efficiency according to the type of the phantom. Results and Discussion: In the analysis of counting efficiency using the BOMAB phantom, the performance criteria of the counters were satisfied. The relative bias of activity for all radionuclides was -0.16 to 0.01 in the Fastscan and -0.01 to 0.03 in the Accuscan. However, when counting efficiency was analyzed using the RMC- II phantom, the relative bias of $^{241}Am$ activity was -0.49 in the Fastscan and 0.55 in the Accuscan, indicating that its performance criteria was not satisfactory. Conclusion: The intercomparison process demonstrated the reliability of whole-body counting systems calibrated with a BOMAB phantom. However, when the RMC-II phantom was used, the accuracy of measurements decreased for low-energy nuclides. Therefore, it appears that the RMC-II phantom should only be used for efficiency calibration for high-energy nuclides. Moreover, a novel phantom capable of matching the efficiency of the BOMAB phantom in low-energy nuclides should be developed.

The change of rainfall quantiles calculated with artificial neural network model from RCP4.5 climate change scenario (RCP4.5 기후변화 시나리오와 인공신경망을 이용한 우리나라 확률강우량의 변화)

  • Lee, Joohyung;Heo, Jun-Haeng;Kim, Gi Joo;Kim, Young-Oh
    • Proceedings of the Korea Water Resources Association Conference
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    • 2022.05a
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    • pp.130-130
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    • 2022
  • 기후변화로 인한 기상이변 현상으로 폭우와 홍수 등 수문학적 극치 사상의 출현 빈도가 잦아지고 있다. 따라서 이러한 기상이변 현상에 적응하기 위하여 보다 정확한 확률강우량 측정의 필요성이 증가하고 있다. 대장 지점의 미래 확률강우량 계산을 위해선 기후변화 시나리오의 비정상성을 고려해야 한다. 본 연구는 비정상적인 미래 기후에서 확률강우량이 어떻게 변화하는지 측정하는 것을 목표로 한다. Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP4.5)에 따른 우리나라의 확률강우량 계산에 인공신경망을 포함한 정상성, 비정상성 확률강우량 산정 모델들이 사용되었다. 지점빈도해석(AFA), 홍수지수법(IFM), 모분포홍수지수법(PIF), 인공신경망을 이용한 Quantile & Parameter regression technique(QRT & PRT)이 정상성 자료에 대해 확률강우량을 계산하는 모델로 사용되었으며, 비정상성 자료에 대해서는 비정상성 지점빈도해석(NS-AFA), 비정상성 홍수지수법(NS-IFM), 비정상성 모분포홍수지수법(NS-PIF), 인공신경망을 사용한 비정상성 Quantile & Parameter regression technique(NS-QRT & NS-PRT)이 사용되었다. Rescaled Akaike information criterion(rAIC)를 사용한 불확실성 분석과 적합도 검정을 통해서 generalized extreme value(GEV) 분포형 모델이 정상성 및 비정상성 확률강우량 산정에 가장 적합한 모델로 선정되었다. 이후, 관측자료가 GEV(0,0,0)을 따르고 시나리오 자료가 GEV(1,0,0)을 따르는 지점들을 선택하여 미래의 확률강우량 변화를 추정하였다. 각 빈도해석 모델들은 몬테카를로 시뮬레이션을 통해 bias, relative bias(Rbias), root mean square error(RMSE), relative root mean square error(RRMSE)를 바탕으로 측정하여 정확도를 계산하였으며 그 결과 QRT와 NS-QRT가 각각 정상성과 비정상성 자료로부터 가장 정확하게 확률강우량을 계산하였다. 본 연구를 통해 향후 기후변화의 영향으로 확률강우량이 증가할 것으로 예상되며, 비정상성을 고려한 빈도분석 또한 필요함을 제안하였다.

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A study of glass and carbon fibers in FRAC utilizing machine learning approach

  • Ankita Upadhya;M. S. Thakur;Nitisha Sharma;Fadi H. Almohammed;Parveen Sihag
    • Advances in materials Research
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    • v.13 no.1
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    • pp.63-86
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    • 2024
  • Asphalt concrete (AC), is a mixture of bitumen and aggregates, which is very sensitive in the design of flexible pavement. In this study, the Marshall stability of the glass and carbon fiber bituminous concrete was predicted by using Artificial Neural Network (ANN), Support Vector Machine (SVM), Random Forest (RF), and M5P Tree machine learning algorithms. To predict the Marshall stability, nine inputs parameters i.e., Bitumen, Glass and Carbon fibers mixed in 100:0, 75:25, 50:50, 25:75, 0:100 percentage (designated as 100GF:0CF, 75GF:25CF, 50GF:50 CF, 25GF:75CF, 0GF:100CF), Bitumen grade (VG), Fiber length (FL), and Fiber diameter (FD) were utilized from the experimental and literary data. Seven statistical indices i.e., coefficient of correlation (CC), mean absolute error (MAE), root mean squared error (RMSE), relative absolute error (RAE), root relative squared error (RRSE), Scattering index (SI), and BIAS were applied to assess the effectiveness of the developed models. According to the performance evaluation results, Artificial neural network (ANN) was outperforming among other models with CC values as 0.9147 and 0.8648, MAE values as 1.3757 and 1.978, RMSE values as 1.843 and 2.6951, RAE values as 39.88 and 49.31, RRSE values as 40.62 and 50.50, SI values as 0.1379 and 0.2027 and BIAS value as -0.1 290 and -0.2357 in training and testing stage respectively. The Taylor diagram (testing stage) also confirmed that the ANN-based model outperforms the other models. Results of sensitivity analysis showed that the fiber length is the most influential in all nine input parameters whereas the fiber combination of 25GF:75CF was the most effective among all the fiber mixes in Marshall stability.

Improvement of Radar Rainfall Estimation Using Radar Reflectivity Data from the Hybrid Lowest Elevation Angles (혼합 최저고도각 반사도 자료를 이용한 레이더 강우추정 정확도 향상)

  • Lyu, Geunsu;Jung, Sung-Hwa;Nam, Kyung-Yeub;Kwon, Soohyun;Lee, Cheong-Ryong;Lee, Gyuwon
    • Journal of the Korean earth science society
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    • v.36 no.1
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    • pp.109-124
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    • 2015
  • A novel approach, hybrid surface rainfall (KNU-HSR) technique developed by Kyungpook Natinal University, was utilized for improving the radar rainfall estimation. The KNU-HSR technique estimates radar rainfall at a 2D hybrid surface consistings of the lowest radar bins that is immune to ground clutter contaminations and significant beam blockage. Two HSR techniques, static and dynamic HSRs, were compared and evaluated in this study. Static HSR technique utilizes beam blockage map and ground clutter map to yield the hybrid surface whereas dynamic HSR technique additionally applies quality index map that are derived from the fuzzy logic algorithm for a quality control in real time. The performances of two HSRs were evaluated by correlation coefficient (CORR), total ratio (RATIO), mean bias (BIAS), normalized standard deviation (NSD), and mean relative error (MRE) for ten rain cases. Dynamic HSR (CORR=0.88, BIAS= $-0.24mm\;hr^{-1}$, NSD=0.41, MRE=37.6%) shows better performances than static HSR without correction of reflectivity calibration bias (CORR=0.87, BIAS= $-2.94mm\;hr^{-1}$, NSD=0.76, MRE=58.4%) for all skill scores. Dynamic HSR technique overestimates surface rainfall at near range whereas it underestimates rainfall at far ranges due to the effects of beam broadening and increasing the radar beam height. In terms of NSD and MRE, dynamic HSR shows the best results regardless of the distance from radar. Static HSR significantly overestimates a surface rainfall at weaker rainfall intensity. However, RATIO of dynamic HSR remains almost 1.0 for all ranges of rainfall intensity. After correcting system bias of reflectivity, NSD and MRE of dynamic HSR are improved by about 20 and 15%, respectively.