• Journal of Society of Preventive Korean Medicine
• /
• 제21권1호
• /
• pp.41-48
• /
• 2017

Objectives : The aims of the current study were to assess the reliability and validity of the CoRe-Ditec-BS Questionnaire-II (BSQ-II; Blood stasis questionnaire-II) with 8 items including 5 items related women added to BSQ-I that was consisted of 36 items and developed in 2013. Methods : Between May 2014 and November 2014, 411 patients from 3 traditional Korean medical hospitals were asked to complete the BSQ-II. Each patient was independently diagnosed with BSS by two traditional Korean medical physicians from the same site. We estimated the internal consistency using Cronbach's ${\alpha}$ coefficient, the discriminant validity using the means score of BSS, and the predictive validity using logistic regression (sensitivity and specificity). Results : The BSQ-II had satisfactory internal consistency (Cronbach's ${\alpha}$ coefficient=0.765) and validity, with significant differences in the mean scores between the BSS($63.60{\pm}9.56$) and non-BSS groups($48.36{\pm}5.93$). The area under the receiver operating curve was about 98%, and the sensitivity and specificity were 91.4% and 94.9%, respectively. Conclusions : These results suggest that the CoRE-Ditec-BSQ-II is more reliable and valid instrument for estimating BSS than BSQ-I.

• Journal of Preventive Medicine and Public Health
• /
• 제43권4호
• /
• pp.283-291
• /
• 2010

Objectives: The purpose of this study was to develop a prediction model for future smoking intention among Korean adolescents aged 13 to 15 in order to identify the high risk group exposed to future smoking. Methods: The data was collected from a total of 5940 students who participated in a self-administrated questionnaire of a cross-sectional school-based survey, the 2004 Korea Global Youth Tobacco Survey. Chi-square tests and logistic regression analyses were carried out to identify the relevant determinants associated with intentions of adolescents’ future smoking. Receiver Operation Characteristic (ROC) assessment was applied to evaluate the explanation level of the developed prediction model. Results: 8.4% of male and 7.2% of female participants show their intentions of future smoking. Among non-smoking adolescents; who have past smoking experience [odds ratio (OR) 2.73; 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.92- 3.88]; who have intentions of smoking when close friends offer a cigarette (OR 31.47; 95% CI = 21.50 - 46.05); and who have friends that are mostly smokers (OR 5.27; 95% CI = 2.85 - 9.74) are more likely to be smokers in the future. The prediction model developed from this study consists of five determinants; past smoking experience; parents smoking status; friends smoking status; ownership of a product with a cigarette brand logo; and intentions of smoking from close friends’ cigarette offer. The area under the ROC curve was 0.8744 (95% CI=0.85 - 0.90) for current non-smokers. Conclusions: For efficiency, school-based smoking prevention programs need to be designed to target the high risk group exposed to future smoking through the prediction model developed by the study, instead of implementing the programs for all the students.

• Fire Science and Engineering
• /
• 제20권1호
• /
• pp.6-14
• /
• 2006

The data of city gas accidents has been collected and analysed for not only predictions of the fire and explosion accidents but also the criteria of societal risk. The accidents of the recent 11 years have been broken up into such 3 groups roughly as "release", "explosion", "fire" d 16 groups in detail. Owing to the Poisson probability distribution functions, 'careless work-explosion-pipeline' and 'joint loosening & erosion-release-pipeline' items respectively have turned out to record the lowest and most frequency among the recent 11-years accidents. And thus the proper counteractions must be carried out. In order to assess the societal risks tendency of the fatal gas accidents and set the more obvious safety policies up, the D. O. Hogon equation and the regression method has been used to range the acceptable range in the F-N curve of the cumulative casualties. The further works requires setting up successive database on the fire and explosion accidents systematically to obtain reliable analyses. Also the standard codification will be demanded.

• Asian Pacific Journal of Cancer Prevention
• /
• 제16권9호
• /
• pp.3735-3740
• /
• 2015

Context: Insulin-like growth factor peptides play important roles in regulating cell growth, cell differentiation, and apoptosis, and have been demonstrated to promote the development of colorectal cancer (CRC). Objective: To examine the association of insulin-related biomarkers including insulin-like growth factor-1 (IGF-1), insulin-like growth factor binding protein-3 (IGFBP-3) and C-peptide with CRC risk and assess their relevance in predictive models. Materials and Methods: The odds ratios of colorectal cancer for serum levels of IGF-1, IGFBP-3 and C-peptide were estimated using unconditional logistic regression models in 100 colorectal cancer cases and 100 control subjects. Areas under the receiving curve (AUC) and integrated discrimination improvement (IDI) statistics were used to assess the discriminatory potential of the models. Results: Serum levels of IGF-1 and IGFBP-3 were negatively associated with colorectal cancer risk (OR=0.07, 95%CI: 0.03-0.16, P for trend <.01, OR=0.06, 95%CI: 0.03-0.15, P for trend <.01 respectively) and serum C-peptide was positively associated with risk of colorectal cancer (OR=4.38, 95%CI: 2.13-9.06, P for trend <.01). Compared to the risk model, prediction for the risk of colorectal cancer had substantially improved when all selected biomarkers IGF-1, IGFBP-3 and inverse value of C-peptide were simultaneously included inthe reference model [P for AUC improvement was 0.02 and the combined IDI reached 0.166% (95 % CI; 0.114-0.219)]. Conclusions: The results provide evidence for an association of insulin-related biomarkers with colorectal cancer risk and point to consideration as candidate predictor markers.

• Asian Pacific Journal of Cancer Prevention
• /
• 제16권17호
• /
• pp.7991-7995
• /
• 2015

Background: To identify the epidemiological characteristics of colorectal cancer mortality in China during the period of 1991-2011, and forecast the future five-year trend. Materials and Methods: Mortality data for colorectal cancer in China from 1991 to 2011 was used to describe epidemiological characteristics in terms of age group, gender, and rural/urban residence. Trend surface analysis was performed to analyze the geographical distribution of colorectal cancer. Four models including curve estimation, time series modeling, gray modeling and joinpoint regression were applied to forecast the trends for the future five years. Results: Since 1991 the colorectal cancer mortality rate increased yearly, and our results showed that the trend would continue to increase in the ensuing 5 years. The mortality rate in males was higher than that of females and the rate in urban areas was higher than in rural areas. The mortality rate was relatively low for individuals less than 60 years of age, but increased dramatically afterwards. People living in the northeastern China provinces or in eastern China had a higher mortality rate for colorectal cancer than those living in middle or western China provinces. Conclusions: The steadily increasing mortality of colorectal cancer in China will become a substantial public health burden in the foreseeable future. For this increasing trend to be controlled, further efforts should concentrate on educating the general public to increase prevention and early detection by screening. More effective prevention and management strategies are needed in higher mortality areas (Eastern parts of China) and high-risk populations (60+ years old).

• Asian Pacific Journal of Cancer Prevention
• /
• 제16권15호
• /
• pp.6729-6734
• /
• 2015

Background: To analyze the mortality distribution of nasopharyngeal carcinoma in China from 1991 to 2013, to predict the mortality in the ensuing five years, and to provide evidence for prevention and treatment of nasopharyngeal carcinoma. Materials and Methods: Mortality data for Nasopharyngeal Carcinoma in China from 1991 to 2013 were used to describe its epidemiological characteristics, such as the change of the standardized mortality rate, sex and age differences, urban-rural differences. Trend-surface analysis was used to study the geographical distribution of the mortality. Curve estimation, time series, gray modeling, and joinpoint regression were used to predict the mortality for the ensuing five years in the future. Results: In China, the standardized mortality rate of Nasopharyngeal Carcinoma increased with time from 1996, reaching the peak values of $1.45/10^5$ at the year of 2002, and decreased gradually afterwards. With males being 1.51 times higher than females, and the city had a higher rate than the rural during the past two decades. The mortality rate increased from age 40. Geographical analysis showed the mortality rate increased from middle to southern China. Conclusions: The standardized mortality rate of Nasopharyngeal Carcinoma is falling. The regional disease control for Nasopharyngeal Carcinoma should be focused on Guangdong province of China, and the key targets for prevention and treatment are rural men, especially after the age of 40. The mortality of Nasopharyngeal Carcinoma will decrease in the next five years.

• Asian Pacific Journal of Cancer Prevention
• /
• 제16권15호
• /
• pp.6391-6396
• /
• 2015

Background: To analyze cervical cancer mortality trends in China from 1991-2013 and forecast the mortality distribution in future five years (2014-2018), and provide clues for prevention and treatment. Materials and Methods: Mortality data for cervical cancer in China from 1991 to 2013 were used to describe the epidemiological characteristics and distribution, including the trend of the standardized mortality rate, urban-rural differences, and age variation. Trend-surface analysis was used to analyze the geographical distribution of mortality. Curve estimation, time series, gray modeling, and joinpoint regression were performed to predict and forecast mortality trends. Results: In recent years, the mortality rate of cervical cancer has increased, and there is also a steady increase in the incidence from 2003 to 2013 in China. Mortality rates in rural areas are higher than in urban areas. The mortality dramatically increases in the 40+ yr age group, reaching a peak in the >85 yr age group. In addition, geographical analysis showed that the cervical cancer mortality increased from the southwest to west-central and from the southeast to northeast of the country. Conclusions: The incidence rate and the mortality rate are increasing from 1991 to 2013, and the predictions show this will continue in the future. Thus, implementation of prevention and management programs for cervical cancer are necessary in China, especially for rural areas, young women in urban areas, and high risk regions (the west-central).

• Asian Pacific Journal of Cancer Prevention
• /
• 제13권4호
• /
• pp.1519-1524
• /
• 2012

Background: Human papillomavirus (HPV) infection is the main cause of cervical cancer. Limited epidemiologic data of HPV prevalence are available for women attending hospitals in southern China. This study aimed to evaluate the profiles of HPV infection and cytology status in gynecological outpatients in Chaozhou City. Methods: A total of 2833 eligible women were enrolled. The HPV GenoArray test was used for HPV detection and genotyping. Nearly one half of the HPV positive women received liquid-based cytology test. Logistic regression analysis was performed to assess the predictable effects of age and genotype for categories of abnormal cytology. Results: The prevalence of overall, high-risk, and low-risk HPV infection were 24.5%, 19.5% and 8.4%, respectively. A U-shaped age-specific prevalence curve was observed in overall HPV and high-risk HPV, but not in low-risk HPV, which declined with age increasing. The 6 most common high-risk HPV type in descending order, were types 52, 16, 58, 18, 68, and 33. Age and HPV genotype were both important determinants of abnormal cytology incidence, the older women (>45 years) and those infected with HPV type 16 and/or 18 having the highest risk for abnormal cytology. Conclusion: Our findings support the hypothesis that second-generation HPV prophylactic vaccines including HPV-52 and -58 may offer higher protection for women residing in Chaozhou and neighboring cities in Guangdong.

• Asian Pacific Journal of Cancer Prevention
• /
• 제13권8호
• /
• pp.4199-4202
• /
• 2012

Objective: The aim of our study is to compare an ovarian malignancy prediction model based on age and four sonographic findings (OMPS1) with a new model called OMPS2 which differs just by adding serum CA125 measurement to (OMPS1). Methods: In a cross sectional comparative study OMPS1 was validated in 830 operated ovarian masses within a 3 years period (2006-2009). Logistic regression analysis was used to construct OMPS2 based on OMPS1 adding serum CA125 findings. The area under the curve for two models was compared in 411 patients. Results: OMPS2 was calculated as follows: OMPS1 + 1.444 (if serum CA125= 36-200) or 3.842 (if serum CA125 is more than 200). AUC of OMPS2 was increased to 84.3% (CI 95% 78.1- 89.8) in comparison to OMPS1 with AUC of 78.1% (CI 95% 71.8-84.5). Conclusion: Our second model is more accurate in prediction of ovarian malignancy, compared with our first model.

• Journal of the Earthquake Engineering Society of Korea
• /
• 제21권6호
• /
• pp.277-286
• /
• 2017

On September 12, 2016, Gyeongju earthquake occurred. Its local magnitude was announced to be $M_L=5.8$ by Korea Meteorological Administration (KMA). Ground motion data recorded at KMA, EMC and KERC stations was obtained from their data bases. From the data, horizontal and vertical response spectra, and V/H ratio were calculated. The horizontal spectrum was defined as geometric mean spectrum, GMRotI50. From the statistical analysis of the geometric mean spectra, a mean plus one standard deviation spectrum in lognormal distribution is obtained. Regression analysis is performed on this curve to determine the shape of spectrum including transition periods. Applying the same procedure, the shape and transition periods of vertical spectrum was obtained. These results were compared with the Korean standard design spectra, which were developed from domestic and overseas intraplate earthquake records. The response spectra of Gyeongju earthquake were found to be almost identical with the newly proposed design spectra. Even the V/H ratios showed good agreement. These results confirmed that the method adopted when developing the standard design spectra were valid and the developed design spectra were reliable.