• Title/Summary/Keyword: Regional prediction

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Ka Band Rain Attenuation Analysis of Domestic Regional Rainfall-Rate Distribution by Crane Prediction Model (Crane 예측 모델을 활용하여 국내 지역별 강우강도 분포에 따른 Ka대역 강우감쇠 분석)

  • Cho, Yongwan
    • Journal of Satellite, Information and Communications
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    • v.11 no.3
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    • pp.110-113
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    • 2016
  • In this paper of ka band satellite communication using geostationary satellite is very weak to rainfall. So the rain attenuation reflect the values calculated using the satellite communication links vulnerable when designing a more reliable rainfall area distribution of rain attenuation and accurate predictive models must analyze the link budget. In this paper, by utilizing domestic distribution analysis in the recent local rainfall Crane and regional rainfall in the model and compared with the country of the regional distribution of rainfall in your area to fit the rain attenuation in Ka band frequency characteristics Crane rain attenuation prediction models were analyzed to between geostationary satellites and ground station position, distance and year time percentage(%).

A Study on the Gust with Thunderstorm in Honam Area (호남지역에서 뇌우에 의한 돌풍사례 분석)

  • Cho, Eun-Hee
    • Journal of Integrative Natural Science
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    • v.2 no.2
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    • pp.101-130
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    • 2009
  • In recent years, South Korea has often witnessed damages by gusts caused by thunderstorms in summer. The Korea Meteorological Administration defines that a gust happens when the maximum instantaneous wind velocity is 10m/s or more and draws up hourly observation reports. When a cumulonimbus develops due to an ascending current and reaches the height of 12~16 km, the temperature of the cloud top drops and a lightening happens, which causes a gust accompanied by a thunderstorm and further regional meteorological damage. It's difficult to predict a regional gust with the mesoscale prediction model at the administration. Thus this study set out to analyze the damage cases by a gust accompanied by a thunderstorm and to make a contribution to the prediction and understanding of a gust by a thunderstorm. A gust by a thunderstorm happens where potential equivalent temperature converges or is higher than the surrounding areas. The convergence area of potential equivalent temperature matches the track of thunderstorm cells. The Kimje gust took place where high potential equivalent temperature converged, and the Jangsu gust did as the area of high potential equivalent temperature approached. There should be a good amount of vapor supply with the moisture flux converging at the bottom layer in order to bring instability. In addition, it should collide into a dry and cold atmosphere at 700 hPa. The moving track at the center of the low dew point spread corresponds to that of a gust.

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Nudging of Vertical Profiles of Meteorological Parameters in One-Dimensional Atmospheric Model: A Step Towards Improvements in Numerical Simulations

  • Subrahamanyam, D. Bala;Rani, S. Indira;Ramachandran, Radhika;Kunhikrishnan, P. K.
    • Ocean Science Journal
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    • v.43 no.4
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    • pp.165-173
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    • 2008
  • In this article, we describe a simple yet effective method for insertion of observational datasets in a mesoscale atmospheric model used in one-dimensional configuration through Nudging. To demonstrate the effectiveness of this technique, vertical profiles of meteorological parameters obtained from GLASS Sonde launches from a tiny island of Kaashidhoo in the Republic of Maldives are injected in a mesoscale atmospheric model - Advanced Regional Prediction System (ARPS), and model simulated parameters are compared with the available observational datasets. Analysis of one-time nudging in the model simulations over Kaashidhoo show that incorporation of this technique reasonably improves the model simulations within a time domain of +6 to +12 Hrs, while its impact on +18 Hrs simulations and beyond becomes literally null.

Baseflow and Streamflow Simulation Applying Baseflow Recession Constants in Individual Sub-watersheds (소유역 별 기저유출 감수상수를 적용한 유량 및 기저유출 모의)

  • Han, Jeong Ho;Lim, Kyoung Jae;Jung, Younghun
    • Journal of The Korean Society of Agricultural Engineers
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    • v.59 no.6
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    • pp.101-108
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    • 2017
  • This study attempted to improve the accuracy of streamflow and baseflow prediction of Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) by applying baselfow recession constants for each sub-watershed. This study set two different scenarios (S1 and S2) to evaluate the impact of application of baseflow recession constants for each sub-watershed on streamflow prediction. In S1, Only the baseflow recession constant obtained from the streamflow station located in the final outlet of study area was applied for whole sub-watersheds. In S2, baseflow recession constants obtained from six different streamflow stations were applied for each sub-watershed. Then, baseflow was separated form the measured streamflow data and the predicted streamflow of S1 and S2 using Web-based Hydrograph Analysis Tool (WHAT). The results showed Nash-Sutcliff efficiency (NSE) and $R^2$ of S2 were a little higher than these of S1 in both streamflow and baseflow prediction results. However, it is important that S2 reflected physical meaning of baseflow recess. Also, recession part of hydrograph in S2 was calibrated better than that of S1 compared to the measured hydrograph.

Dynamic Thermal Rating of Overhead Transmission Lines Based on GRAPES Numerical Weather Forecast

  • Yan, Hongbo;Wang, Yanling;Zhou, Xiaofeng;Liang, Likai;Yin, Zhijun;Wang, Wei
    • Journal of Information Processing Systems
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    • v.15 no.4
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    • pp.724-736
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    • 2019
  • Dynamic thermal rating technology can effectively improve the thermal load capacity of transmission lines. However, its availability is limited by the quantity and high cost of the hardware facilities. This paper proposes a new dynamic thermal rating technology based on global/regional assimilation and prediction system (GRAPES) and geographic information system (GIS). The paper will also explore the method of obtaining any point meteorological data along the transmission line by using GRAPES and GIS, and provide the strategy of extracting and decoding meteorological data. In this paper, the accuracy of numerical weather prediction was verified from the perspective of time and space. Also, the 750-kV transmission line in Shaanxi Province is considered as an example to analyze. The results of the study indicate that dynamic thermal rating based on GRAPES and GIS can fully excavate the line power potential without additional cost on hardware, which saves a lot of investment.

Economic Effects of Establishing a Logistic Free Zone in the Port of Busan (물류중심형 자유지대의 경제적 파급효과에 관한 연구 - 부산항을 중심으로 -)

  • Sohn, Ae-Hwi
    • Proceedings of the Korean Institute of Navigation and Port Research Conference
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    • 2000.11a
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    • pp.33.2-42
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    • 2000
  • This study probes the necessity of establishing a logistic free zone in Port of Busan. It considers the economic effects of establishing the logistic free zone of Busan Port, and suggests policy prescriptions for introducing the free zone system and improving the logistics functions of Busan Port. Using input-output table data, the regression analysis was able to provide a quantitative prediction on effects of making the Busan Port a tariff-free zone. Influence for the regional economy due to the enforcement of the free zone system this research found that a strong positive effects should be expected on the Busan regional economy once the logistic free zone would be set up at the Port of Busan. The positive economic effects on Busan regional industries might be further strengthened if the value-added logistics function of Busan Port could be supplemented by linking to the hinterland of Busan Port.

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Self-Assembled Nanoparticles of Bile Acid-Modified Glycol Chitosans and Their Applications for Cancer Therapy

  • Kim Kwangmeyung;Kim Jong-Ho;Kim Sungwon;Chung Hesson;Choi Kuiwon;Kwon Ick Chan;Park Jae Hyung;Kim Yoo-Shin;Park Rang-Won;Kim In-San;Jeong Seo Young
    • Macromolecular Research
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    • v.13 no.3
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    • pp.167-175
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    • 2005
  • This review explores recent works involving the use of the self-assembled nanoparticles of bile acid-modified glycol chitosans (BGCs) as a new drug carrier for cancer therapy. BGC nanoparticles were produced by chemically grafting different bile acids through the use of l-ethyl-3-(3-dimethylaminopropyl)-carbodiimide (EDC). The precise control of the size, structure, and hydrophobicity of the various BGC nanoparticles could be achieved by grafting different amounts of bile acids. The BGC nanoparticles so produced formed nanoparticles ranging in size from 210 to 850 nm in phosphate-buffered saline (PBS, pH=7.4), which exhibited substantially lower critical aggregation concentrations (0.038-0.260 mg/mL) than those of other low-molecular-weight surfactants, indicating that they possess high thermodynamic stability. The SOC nanoparticles could encapsulate small molecular peptides and hydrophobic anticancer drugs with a high loading efficiency and release them in a sustained manner. This review also highlights the biodistribution of the BGC nanoparticles, in order to demonstrate their accumulation in the tumor tissue, by utilizing the enhanced permeability and retention (EPR) effect. The different approaches used to optimize the delivery of drugs to treat cancer are also described in the last section.

Prediction of Asphalt Pavement Service Life using Deep Learning (딥러닝을 활용한 일반국도 아스팔트포장의 공용수명 예측)

  • Choi, Seunghyun;Do, Myungsik
    • International Journal of Highway Engineering
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    • v.20 no.2
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    • pp.57-65
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    • 2018
  • PURPOSES : The study aims to predict the service life of national highway asphalt pavements through deep learning methods by using maintenance history data of the National Highway Pavement Management System. METHODS : For the configuration of a deep learning network, this study used Tensorflow 1.5, an open source program which has excellent usability among deep learning frameworks. For the analysis, nine variables of cumulative annual average daily traffic, cumulative equivalent single axle loads, maintenance layer, surface, base, subbase, anti-frost layer, structural number of pavement, and region were selected as input data, while service life was chosen to construct the input layer and output layers as output data. Additionally, for scenario analysis, in this study, a model was formed with four different numbers of 1, 2, 4, and 8 hidden layers and a simulation analysis was performed according to the applicability of the over fitting resolution algorithm. RESULTS : The results of the analysis have shown that regardless of the number of hidden layers, when an over fitting resolution algorithm, such as dropout, is applied, the prediction capability is improved as the coefficient of determination ($R^2$) of the test data increases. Furthermore, the result of the sensitivity analysis of the applicability of region variables demonstrates that estimating service life requires sufficient consideration of regional characteristics as $R^2$ had a maximum of between 0.73 and 0.84, when regional variables where taken into consideration. CONCLUSIONS : As a result, this study proposes that it is possible to precisely predict the service life of national highway pavement sections with the consideration of traffic, pavement thickness, and regional factors and concludes that the use of the prediction of service life is fundamental data in decision making within pavement management systems.

Estimation of Design Rainfall by the Regional Frequency Analysis using Higher Probability Weighted Moments and GIS Techniques (III) - On the Method of LH-moments and GIS Techniques - (고차확률가중모멘트법에 의한 지역화빈도분석과 GIS기법에 의한 설계강우량 추정 (III) - LH-모멘트법과 GIS 기법을 중심으로 -)

  • 이순혁;박종화;류경식;지호근;신용희
    • Magazine of the Korean Society of Agricultural Engineers
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    • v.44 no.5
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    • pp.41-53
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    • 2002
  • This study was conducted to derive the regional design rainfall by the regional frequency analysis based on the regionalization of the precipitation suggested by the first report of this project. According to the regions and consecutive durations, optimal design rainfalls were derived by the regional frequency analysis for L-moment in the second report of this project. Using the LH-moment ratios and Kolmogorov-Smirnov test, the optimal regional probability distribution was identified to be the Generalized extreme value (GEV) distribution among applied distributions. regional and at-site parameters of the GEV distribution were estimated by the linear combination of the higher probability weighted moments, LH-moment. Design rainfall using LH-moments following the consecutive duration were derived by the regional and at-site analysis using the observed and simulated data resulted from Monte Carlo techniques. Relative root-mean-square error (RRMSE), relative bias (RBIAS) and relative reduction (RR) in RRMSE for the design rainfall were computed and compared in the regional and at-site frequency analysis. Consequently, it was shown that the regional analysis can substantially more reduce the RRMSE, RBIAS and RR in RRMSE than at-site analysis in the prediction of design rainfall. Relative efficiency (RE) for an optimal order of L-moments was also computed by the methods of L, L1, L2, L3 and L4-moments for GEV distribution. It was found that the method of L-moments is more effective than the others for getting optimal design rainfall according to the regions and consecutive durations in the regional frequency analysis. Diagrams for the design rainfall derived by the regional frequency analysis using L-moments were drawn according to the regions and consecutive durations by GIS techniques.