• Title/Summary/Keyword: Regional climate model

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Evaluation of Thermal Environments during the Heat Waves of Summer 2013 in Busan Metropolitan Area (2013년 부산지역 폭염사례일의 열쾌적성 평가)

  • Kim, Young-Jun;Kim, Hyunsu;Kim, Yoo-Keun;Kim, Jin-Kuk;Kim, Yeon-Mai
    • Journal of Environmental Science International
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    • v.23 no.11
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    • pp.1929-1941
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    • 2014
  • Now a days, frequency of abnormally high temperatures like heat wave by global warming and climate change is increasing constantly and the number of patient with heat related illness are jumping rapidly. In this study, we chose the case day for the heat wave in Busan area(Busan and Yangsan), 2013 which it was the most hottest year during 21th century. And then, we analysed the weather condition using automatic synoptic observing system(ASOS) data. Also, four indices, heat index(HI), wet bulb globe temperature(WBGT), Man-ENvironment heat EXchange model(MENEX)'s results like Physiological subjective temperature(PST), Physiological strain(PhS), were calculated to evaluate the thermal comfort and stress quantitatively. However, thermal comfort was different as the each station and thermal comfort index during same time. Busan's thermal indices (HI: hot, WBGT: sweltering, PST: very hot, PhS: very hot) indicated relatively higher than Yansan's (HI: very hot, WBGT: sweltering, PST: very hot, PhS: sweltering). It shows that Busan near coast is relatively more comfortable than Yangsan located in inland.

Variation and Trends of Irrigation Requirements of Rice Paddies in Korea

  • Nkomozepi, Temba Darlington;Chung, Sang-Ok
    • Current Research on Agriculture and Life Sciences
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    • v.31 no.4
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    • pp.233-239
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    • 2013
  • Understanding the temporal variability of agricultural parameters derived from historical climate data is important for planning in agriculture. Therefore, this study assessed the magnitude and recent trends of the transpiration ratio defined as the crop water use per harvested yield for the period from 1980 to 2010. The crop water use was estimated using the Food and Agriculture Organization's Crop Wat model for eight administrative provinces in Korea. The temporal trends and spatial uncertainty were explored using the Mann-Kendall and Theil Sen's methods. The regional average rice yield was $6.31t\;ha^{-1}$(range 5.9 to $6.9t\;ha^{-1}$). The results showed that the rice yield in Korea increased by $26kg\;ha^{-1}yr^{-1}$. Overall, the regional average transpiration ratio was $1,298m^3t^{-1}$ (range 1,162 to $1,470m^3t^{-1}$). From 1980 to 2010, the transpiration ratio decreased by $8.2m^3t^{-1}$ (range 2.7 to $14.4m^3t^{-1}$), largely as a result of the increasing yield. The statistical approach to historical data used in this study also provides a basis for simulating the future transpiration ratio.

Global Warming Effects on the Cambial Growth of Larix leptolepis in Central Korea : Predictions from Simulation Modeling (지구온난화에 따른 중부 한국 낙엽송의 형성층 생장 예측: 시뮬레이션 모델링)

  • Won-Kyu Park;Eugene Vaganov;Maria Arbatskaya;Jeong-Wook Seo;Je-Su Kim
    • The Korean Journal of Quaternary Research
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    • v.14 no.1
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    • pp.57-63
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    • 2000
  • A simulation model was used to examine the effects of climate variation on the tree-ring structure of Larix leptolepis trees growing at a plantation plot in Worak National Park in central Korea. The model uses mathematical equations to simulate processes affecting cell(tracheid) size variations for individual rings using daily precipitation and temperature measurements. Limiting conditions are estimated from temperature, day length and a calculated water balance. The results indicate that the seasonal growth is mostly limited by the soil moisture content and precipitation income during April and May. The April-May temperature also inversely influences the growth by increasing water losses from soil. The global climate-change scenario which includes regional warming(increasing temperature in spring-summer periods) appears to decrease the duration of optimal growths. Consequently, the model estimated that Larix leptolepis would lose the total production of xylem by 25%.

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Assessment of the Distributional Probability for Evergreen Broad-Leaved Forests(EBLFs) Using a Logistic Regression Model (로지스틱 회귀모형을 이용한 상록활엽수림 생육분포 확률 평가)

  • YOO, Byung-Oh;PARK, Joon-Hyung;PARK, Yong-Bae;JUNG, Su-Young;LEE, Kwang-Soo
    • Journal of the Korean Association of Geographic Information Studies
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    • v.19 no.1
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    • pp.94-105
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    • 2016
  • This study was carried out to assess the distributional probability for Evergreen Broad-Leaved Forests(EBLFs) using the field data and digital climate data that were occurred during the period of 1980 to 2010. For the validation of logistic regression model, the probabilistic value ranged from 33 to 84%, especially the probabilistic value of growing distribution becomes lower patterns with higher altitude. In addition, it has been estimated that the probabilistic value of growing distribution is the highest with 63~83% among the regional units in temperate/warm-temperate forests.

The Urban Water Cycle Planning Elements and Hydrologic Cycle Simulation for Green City (녹색도시 물순환 계획요소 및 수문순환 모의)

  • Lee, Jung-Min;Kim, Jong-Lim
    • Land and Housing Review
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    • v.3 no.3
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    • pp.271-278
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    • 2012
  • The climate change and global warming has been a world-wide issue. Also, the green growth has been a widely adopted strategy for national and regional development. In particular, after the Kyoto Protocol to United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change was declared, the low carbon society was inevitable phenomenon. The hydrologic cycle in urban catchment has been changed due to the expansion of impervious area by rapid urban development. This paper has examined the Water cycle planning elements for green city in the scale of urban planning as well as site planning including housing site. In this study, the SWMM5-LID (Storm Water Management Model5-LID) model was used to simulate the hydrologic cycle of the test catchment as a typical urban catchment. We performed continuous simulation on urban runoff before and after the development of the test catchment and after the installation of Green city planning Elements.

Evaluation of Groundwater Recharge using a Distributed Water Balance Model (WetSpass-M model) for the Sapgyo-cheon Upstream Basin (분포형 물수지 모델(WetSpass-M)을 이용한 삽교천 상류 유역에서의 월별 지하수 함양량 산정)

  • An, Hyowon;Ha, Kyoochul
    • Journal of Soil and Groundwater Environment
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    • v.26 no.6
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    • pp.47-64
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    • 2021
  • In this study, the annual and monthly groundwater recharge for the Sapgyo-cheon upstream basin in Chungnam Province was evaluated by water balance analysis utilizing WetSpass-M model. The modeling input data such as topography, climate parameters, LAI (Leaf Area Index), land use, and soil characteristics were established using ArcGIS, QGIS, and Python programs. The results showed that the annual average groundwater recharge in 2001 - 2020 was 251 mm, while the monthly groundwater recharge significantly varied over time, fluctuating between 1 and 47 mm. The variation was high in summer, and relatively low in winter. Variation in groundwater recharge was the largest in July in which precipitation was heavily concentrated, and the variation was closely associated with several factors including the total amount of precipitation, the number of days of the precipitation, and the daily average precipitation. This suggests the extent of groundwater recharge is greatly influenced not only by quantity of precipitation but also the precipitation pattern. Since climate condition has a profound effect on the monthly groundwater recharge, evaluation of monthly groundwater recharge need to be carried out by considering both seasonal and regional variability for better groundwater usage and management. In addition, the mathematical tools for groundwater recharge analysis need to be improved for more accurate prediction of groundwater recharge.

Projecting Future Paddy Irrigation Demands in Korea Using High-resolution Climate Simulations (고해상도 기후자료를 이용한 우리나라의 논 관개요구량 예측)

  • Chung, Sang-Ok
    • Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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    • v.44 no.3
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    • pp.169-177
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    • 2011
  • The impacts of climate change on paddy irrigation water demands in Korea have been analyzed. High-resolution ($27{\times}27\;km$) climate data for the SRES A2 scenario produced by the Korean Meteorological Research Institute (METRI) and the observed baseline climatology dataset were used. The outputs from the ECHO-G GCM model were dynamically downscaled using the MM5 regional model by the METRI. The Geographic information system (GIS) was used to produce maps showing the spatial changes in irrigation water requirements for rice paddies. The results showed that the growing season mean temperature for future scenarios was projected to increase by $1.5^{\circ}C$ (2020s), $3.3^{\circ}C$ (2050s) and $5.3^{\circ}C$ (2080s) as compared with the baseline value (1971~2000). The growing season rainfall for future scenarios was projected to increase by 0.1% (2020s), 4.9% (2050s) and 19.3% (2080s). Assuming cropping area and farming practices remain unchanged, the total volumetric irrigation demand was projected to increase by 2.8% (2020s), 4.9% (2050s) and 4.5% (2080s). These projections are contrary to the previous study that used HadCM3 outputs and projected decreasing irrigation demand. The main reason for this discrepancy is the difference with the projected climate of the GCMs used. The temporal and spatial variations were large and should be considered in the irrigation water resource planning and management in the future.

Development of High-frequency Data-based Inflow Water Temperature Prediction Model and Prediction of Changesin Stratification Strength of Daecheong Reservoir Due to Climate Change (고빈도 자료기반 유입 수온 예측모델 개발 및 기후변화에 따른 대청호 성층강도 변화 예측)

  • Han, Jongsu;Kim, Sungjin;Kim, Dongmin;Lee, Sawoo;Hwang, Sangchul;Kim, Jiwon;Chung, Sewoong
    • Journal of Environmental Impact Assessment
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    • v.30 no.5
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    • pp.271-296
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    • 2021
  • Since the thermal stratification in a reservoir inhibits the vertical mixing of the upper and lower layers and causes the formation of a hypoxia layer and the enhancement of nutrients release from the sediment, changes in the stratification structure of the reservoir according to future climate change are very important in terms of water quality and aquatic ecology management. This study was aimed to develop a data-driven inflow water temperature prediction model for Daecheong Reservoir (DR), and to predict future inflow water temperature and the stratification structure of DR considering future climate scenarios of Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP). The random forest (RF)regression model (NSE 0.97, RMSE 1.86℃, MAPE 9.45%) developed to predict the inflow temperature of DR adequately reproduced the statistics and variability of the observed water temperature. Future meteorological data for each RCP scenario predicted by the regional climate model (HadGEM3-RA) was input into RF model to predict the inflow water temperature, and a three-dimensional hydrodynamic model (AEM3D) was used to predict the change in the future (2018~2037, 2038~2057, 2058~2077, 2078~2097) stratification structure of DR due to climate change. As a result, the rates of increase in air temperature and inflow water temperature was 0.14~0.48℃/10year and 0.21~0.41℃/10year,respectively. As a result of seasonal analysis, in all scenarios except spring and winter in the RCP 2.6, the increase in inflow water temperature was statistically significant, and the increase rate was higher as the carbon reduction effort was weaker. The increase rate of the surface water temperature of the reservoir was in the range of 0.04~0.38℃/10year, and the stratification period was gradually increased in all scenarios. In particular, when the RCP 8.5 scenario is applied, the number of stratification days is expected to increase by about 24 days. These results were consistent with the results of previous studies that climate change strengthens the stratification intensity of lakes and reservoirs and prolonged the stratification period, and suggested that prolonged water temperature stratification could cause changes in the aquatic ecosystem, such as spatial expansion of the low-oxygen layer, an increase in sediment nutrient release, and changed in the dominant species of algae in the water body.

Comparative Analysis of Nitrogen Concentration of Rainfall in South Korea for Nonpoint Source Pollution Model Application (비점오염모델 적용을 위한 우리나라 행정구역별 강수 중 질소농도 비교분석)

  • Choi, Dong Ho;Kim, Min-Kyeong;Hur, Seung-Oh;Hong, Sung-Chang;Choi, Soon-Kun
    • Korean Journal of Environmental Agriculture
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    • v.37 no.3
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    • pp.189-196
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    • 2018
  • BACKGROUND: Water quality management of river requires quantification of pollutant loads and implementation of measures through monitoring study, but it requires labour and costs. Therefore, many researchers are performing nonpoint source pollution analysis using computer models. However, calibration of model parameters needs observed data. Nitrogen concentration in rainfall is one of the factors to be considered when estimating the pollutant loads through application of the nonpoint source pollution model, but the default value provided by the model is used when there are no observed data. Therefore, this study aims to provide the representative nitrogen concentration of the rainfall for the administrative district ensuring rational modeling and reliable results. METHODS AND RESULTS: In this study, rainfall monitoring data from June 2015 to December 2017 were used to determine the nitrogen concentration in rainfall for each administrative district. Range of the $NO_3{^-}$ and $NH_4{^+}$ concentrations were 0.41~6.05 mg/L, 0.39~2.27 mg/L, respectively, and T-N concentration was 0.80~7.71 mg/L. Furthermore, the national average of T-N concentration in this study was $2.84{\pm}1.42mg/L$, which was similar to the national average of T-N 3.03 mg/L presented by the Ministry of Environment in 2015. Therefore, the nitrogen concentrations suggested in this study can be considered to be resonable values. CONCLUSION: The nitrogen concentrations estimated in this study showed regional differences. Therefore, when estimating the pollutant loads through application of the nonpoint source pollution model, resonable parameter estimation of nitrogen concentration in rainfall is possible by reflecting the regional characteristics.

Channel Characteristics of Sincheon Experimental Catchment using HEC - RAS model (HEC-RAS 모델을 이용한 신천 시험유역의 하도 특성연구)

  • Park, Byeongky;Lee, Myunggu;Hong, Changsu;Lee, Jaekwan;Lee, Young Joon;Choi, Joongdae
    • Journal of Environmental Science International
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    • v.25 no.1
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    • pp.41-56
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    • 2016
  • In recent localized heavy rainfalls have been arising from abnormal climate change. People are concerning about damages with increasing the frequency of flooding. Therefore, we need to understand river hydraulic characteristics and management to reduce damage from flooding. To study hydraulic characterization of Sincheon experimental catchment HEC-RAS (Hydrologic Engineering Center River Analysis System) model which provided by U.S Army Corps of Engineers (USACE) was applied. This study analyzed and compared water level the frequency flood for 100 years and 200 years by clark unit Hydrography. The change of the water level of Daejeon bridge, Sincheon bridge and Singi bridge showed increased for all conditions. The flow rate for the Daejeon bridge and the Sincheon bridge showed an increase, but the Sinki bridge showed a decreasing flow rate overally, except for 1hour-100 years. The verification result showed that the model was able to simulate the water level with 0.4709 coefficient of determination and error ration ranging from 1 to 3%.