• 한국경제지리학회지
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• 제15권4호
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• pp.601-614
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• 2012

본 논문은 세계화 기후변화시대에 지역 경쟁력에 영향을 미치는 요인을 추정하고, 요인들의 상대적 중요성을 분석하는 데 목적을 두었다. 2001~2010년 동안 16개 광역시 도의 균형 패널 데이터를 구축하여 패널분석을 수행하였다. 1인당 지역민총소득을 종속변수로 하고 경쟁력 기반요인, 경제적 생산요인, 기후변화 적응요인을 설명변수로 하는 패널모델을 구축하였다. 본 연구에서는 모델 1(전형적인 지역 경쟁력 모델)과 기후변화 적응요인을 추가시킨 모델 2를 비교하였다. 실증분석 결과 종속변수에 가장 영향력이 높은 요인으로는 지식기반산업 비율과 인적자본으로 나타났으며, 에너지 비효율성이 증가하면 지역 경쟁력이 감소하는 것으로 추정되었다. 또한 모델 1에 비해 모델 2에서는 지역의 개방성과 기술혁신자본의 영향력이 상대적으로 더 증가하는 것으로 나타났다. 본 연구 결과를 통해 향후 세계화 기후변화시대에 지역 경쟁력을 강화시키는데 필요한 정책적 시사점을 제공하였다.

• 환경영향평가
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• 제21권1호
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• pp.105-117
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• 2012

Future climate according to land-use change was simulated by regional climate model. The goal of study was to predict the distribution of meteorological elements using the Weather Research & Forecasting Model (WRF). The KME (Korea Ministry of Environment) medium-category land-use classification was used as dominant vegetation types. Meteorological modeling requires higher and more sophisticated land-use and initialization data. The WRF model simulations with HyTAG land-use indicated certain change in potential vegetation distribution in the future (2086-2088). Compared to the past (1986-1988) distribution, coniferous forest area was decreased in metropolitan and areas with complex terrain. The research shows a possibility to simulate regional climate with high resolution. As a result, the future climate was predicted to $4.5^{\circ}$ which was $0.5^{\circ}$ higher than prediction by Meteorological Administration. To improve future prediction of regional area, regional climate model with HyTAG as well as high resolution initial values such as urban growth and CO2 flux simulation would be desirable.

• 한국수자원학회논문집
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• 제39권12호
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• pp.1043-1056
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• 2006

온실가스 증가로 인한 기후변화를 이해하고, 다양한 영향평가 분야에 상세한 기후정보를 제공하기 위해서 온실가스 배출 시나리오에 근거한 지역기후변화 시나리오 연구가 수행되었다. 본 연구에서는 역학적 상세화를 위하여 지역기후모델을 이용한 이중둥지격자시스템을 구축하고, 과거 30년(1971-2000)과 미래 30년(2021-2050)에 대한 시나리오를 생산하였다. 미래 시나리오에 대한 신뢰도를 확보하기 위하여, 기준 시나리오에 대한 관측과의 검증이 선행되었다. 기준 시나리오는 둥지격자의 한반도 영역뿐만 아니라 모격자의 동아시아 영역에 대하여 기온과 강수의 계절 및 경년변동성과 일빈도분포를 성공적으로 모사하였다. 또한 경계조건으로 이용된 전구모델과 비교하여 공간적인 특성뿐만 아니라 면적평균 시계열에서도 뚜렷한 오차의 감소를 나타내었다. 미래 기후변화 전망은 기준 시나리오와 미래 시나리오의 차이로부터 유도되며, 평균적인 변화뿐만 아니라 극한 기후의 빈도와 강도변화에 대한 분석이 수행되었다. 미래 시나리오에 의하면 2050년까지 한반도에서는 $2^{\circ}C$ 정도의 기온 상승과 겨울철 강수량의 뚜렷한 증가경향이 전망되었다. 본 연구는 한반도의 복잡한 지형적 특성이 반영된 고해상도 시나리오를 생산하기 위한 방법론을 제시하고, 생산된 시나리오를 이용하여 다양한 시공간 규모에 대한 기후특성을 파악하였다는데 의미가 있다.

• 한국수산과학회지
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• 제57권2호
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• pp.177-185
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• 2024

We developed a regional ocean climate model using dynamic downscaling in the Northwest Pacific Ocean to build a climate model for the Korean Peninsula. The past marine environment was reproduced through historical simulations, and the future marine environment in 2100 was predicted according to the shared socioeconomic pathways (SSP) climate change scenario. The future sea surface temperature of the Korean seas is predicted to rise about 1-4℃, and the increase in water temperature in the East Sea is expected to be the largest. The National Institute of Fisheries Science has monitored abnormal seawater temperatures such as high and low seawater temperatures in coastal and inland waters, and predicted that the number of high seawater temperature days in the East, West, South Sea, and the coast of Jeju Island will increase in the future. In addition, the occurrence of Ciguatera fish poison plankton around Jeju Island was projected to increase. This study is expected to provide accurate forecasting information for fishery issues. The aim of this study was to analyze future ocean environment changes around the Korean Peninsula using climate change SSP scenarios and predict fisheries issues through future projections of the regional ocean climate model.

• 한국농공학회논문집
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• 제57권4호
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• pp.101-112
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• 2015

This study was conducted to predict greenhouse gas (GHG) emission from a radish field by future climate change scenario. A radish field located at Chuncheon-si Gangwon-do was selected, and A1B Special Report on Emission Scenario (SRES) of the IPCC (Intergovernmental panel on climate change) was applied to simulate the future potential climate change. Rainfall and temperature data were predicted to be increased by 8.4 % and 1.9 % in 2040s, 35.9 % and 27.0 % in 2060s, 19.2 % and 30.8 % in 2090s, respectively, compared to the climate data in 2010s. The $N_2O$, $CO_2$, and $CH_4$ emission were estimated to be increased by 0.4 up to 2.4 kg/ha/yr, by 500.5 up to 734.5 kg/ha/year, and by 29.4 up to 160.4 kg/ha/yr, which were resulted from the global warming potential (GWP) of 14.5~21.7 $CO_2$/ha/year caused by the amount changes of rainfall, temperature, manure amendment, and fertilizer applied in fields. One distinct feature of the study result was that the changes of $N_2O-N$, $CH_4-C$ and $CO_2-C$ with future potential climate change simulation were varied by soil texture. Therefore it was concluded that there is a need to apply appropriate amount of manure amendment needs and to consider soil texture as well.

• 대기
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• 제21권1호
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• pp.17-33
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• 2011

A dynamical downscaling system for seasonal forecast has been constructed based on a regional climate model, and its predictability was investigated for 10 years' wintertime (December-January-February; DJF) climatology in East Asia. Initial and lateral boundary conditions were obtained from the operational seasonal forecasting data, which are realtime output of the Global Data Assimilation and Prediction System (GDAPS) at Korea Meteorological Administration (KMA). Sea surface temperature was also obtained from the operational forecasts, i.e., KMA El-Nino and Global Sea Surface Temperature Forecast System. In order to determine the better configuration of the regional climate model for East Asian regions, two sensitivity experiments were carried out for one winter season (97/98 DJF): One is for the topography blending and the other is for the cumulus parameterization scheme. After determining the proper configuration, the predictability of the regional forecasting system was validated with respect to 850 hPa temperature and precipitation. The results showed that mean fields error and other verification statistics were generally decreased compared to GDAPS, most evident in 500 hPa geopotential heights. These improved simulation affected season prediction, and then HSS was better 36% and 11% about 850 hPa temperature and precipitation, respectively.

• 한국수자원학회:학술대회논문집
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• 한국수자원학회 2004년도 학술발표회
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• pp.875-877
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• 2004

We analyze the changes of the Palmer Drought Severity Index (PDSI) over Korea to assess the regional climate change associated with global warming. For the regional-scale analysis, we used the MM5 simulation in 27 km horizontal resolution for the period of 1971-2100, which is driven by ECHAM4/HOPE-G under the greenhouse gas omission scenario. The downscaled climate variables capture improved regional features consistent with the observation. Based on the simulation, we investigated the temporal and spatial distributions of PDSI over Korea. The area-averaged PDSI is expected to decrease in global warming. Considering the horizontal distribution of climate change, the negative peak values of PDSI anomalies appear in the southern part of Korea.

• World Technopolis Review
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• 제1권4호
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• pp.230-239
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• 2013

The paper deals with recent paradigm shift in German environmental policy, fundamentally modifying the German society towards a sustainable future development. Key elements of this development are forceful climate protection measures to contribute to global climate protection strategy and to fulfil international conventions, supplemented by a comprehensive strategy to promote the adaptation to climate change, the nuclear power phase out in the medium term, and innovative landscape and regional planning projects to strengthen regional identity and economic power. All this components are,complemented by a financial support program including incentives, tax reductions, and research funding.

• 한국지구과학회지
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• 제32권7호
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• pp.750-760
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• 2011

본 연구에서는 신뢰성 있는 국가표준 지역기후변화 시나리오 생산을 위해 현재기후에 대한 SNURCM과 WRF의 재현성을 검증하였다. 국립기상연구소에서 생산된 HadGEM2-AO 전구자료를 지역기후모형의 경계조건으로 사용하여 CORDEX 규준 하에 28년(1978-2005)간의 장기적분을 수행하였다. 두 모형은 연평균 지표 온도 분포를 관측과의 공간상관계수가 0.98 이상으로 매우 높은 일치성을 나타내었지만, 모형 영역의 북쪽 경계를 중심으로 한랭 편차를 공통적으로 보였다. 강수의 경우 또한 육지 지역을 대상으로 한 관측과의 공간 상관 계수는 SNURCM이 0.85, WRF가 0.79로 나타나 우수한 모의 결과를 보였다. 두 모형에서 모의된 강수 분포는 적도와 중위도 지역 간에 상반되는 특성을 보였다. SNURCM은 WRF에 비교하여 중위도 동아시아 몬순 강수대의 분포를 적도 지역의 강수대보다 상대적으로 잘 모의하였으나, WRF는 그 반대의 결과를 나타내었다. 여름철(JJA) 보다 봄철(MAM)에 과다 모의되었지만 모의된 강수 분포의 일치성은 봄철에 높게 나타났다. 세부영역 별 분석에서 두 모형은 7월 강수 최대 시점과 양을 비교적 정확히 모의하였고, 특히 내륙 지역 강수량의 모의 정확도가 해양에 영향 받는 지역보다 높았다. 모의결과는 한반도 상의 높은 일평균 지표온도일수와 강한 강수일수를 표현하는데 한계를 보였다.

• 한국대기환경학회지
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• 제28권6호
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• pp.615-631
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• 2012

This study provides an evaluation for capability of Integrated Climate and Air quality Modeling System (ICAMS) on future regional scale climate projection. Temperature and precipitation are compared between ground-level observation data and results of regional models (MM5) for the past 30 years over the Korean peninsula. The ICAMS successfully simulates the local-scale spatial/seasonal variation of the temperature and precipitation. The probability distribution of simulated daily mean and minimum temperature agree well with the observed patterns and trends, although mean temperature shows a little cold bias about $1^{\circ}C$ compared to observations. It seems that a systematic cold bias is mostly due to an underestimation of maximum temperature. In the case of precipitation, the rainfall in winter and light rainfall are remarkably simulated well, but summer precipitation is underestimated in the heavy rainfall phenomena of exceeding 20 mm/day. The ICAMS shows a tendency to overestimate the number of washout days about 7%. Those results of this study indicate that the performance of ICAMS is reasonable regarding to air quality predication over the Korean peninsula.