• Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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• v.28 no.1
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• pp.69-88
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• 2022

One of the characteristics of South Korea's economic structure is that it is highly dependent on exports. Thus, many businesses are closely related to the global economy and diplomatic situation. In addition, small and medium-sized enterprises(SMEs) specialized in exporting are struggling due to the spread of COVID-19. Therefore, this study aimed to develop a model to forecast exports for next year to support SMEs' export strategy and decision making. Also, this study proposed a strategy to recommend promising export countries of each item based on the forecasting model. We analyzed important variables used in previous studies such as country-specific, item-specific, and macro-economic variables and collected those variables to train our prediction model. Next, through the exploratory data analysis(EDA) it was found that exports, which is a target variable, have a highly skewed distribution. To deal with this issue and improve predictive performance, we suggest a separated learning method. In a separated learning method, the whole dataset is divided into homogeneous subgroups and a prediction algorithm is applied to each group. Thus, characteristics of each group can be more precisely trained using different input variables and algorithms. In this study, we divided the dataset into five subgroups based on the exports to decrease skewness of the target variable. After the separation, we found that each group has different characteristics in countries and goods. For example, In Group 1, most of the exporting countries are developing countries and the majority of exporting goods are low value products such as glass and prints. On the other hand, major exporting countries of South Korea such as China, USA, and Vietnam are included in Group 4 and Group 5 and most exporting goods in these groups are high value products. Then we used LightGBM(LGBM) and Exponential Moving Average(EMA) for prediction. Considering the characteristics of each group, models were built using LGBM for Group 1 to 4 and EMA for Group 5. To evaluate the performance of the model, we compare different model structures and algorithms. As a result, it was found that the separated learning model had best performance compared to other models. After the model was built, we also provided variable importance of each group using SHAP-value to add explainability of our model. Based on the prediction model, we proposed a second-stage recommendation strategy for potential export countries. In the first phase, BCG matrix was used to find Star and Question Mark markets that are expected to grow rapidly. In the second phase, we calculated scores for each country and recommendations were made according to ranking. Using this recommendation framework, potential export countries were selected and information about those countries for each item was presented. There are several implications of this study. First of all, most of the preceding studies have conducted research on the specific situation or country. However, this study use various variables and develops a machine learning model for a wide range of countries and items. Second, as to our knowledge, it is the first attempt to adopt a separated learning method for exports prediction. By separating the dataset into 5 homogeneous subgroups, we could enhance the predictive performance of the model. Also, more detailed explanation of models by group is provided using SHAP values. Lastly, this study has several practical implications. There are some platforms which serve trade information including KOTRA, but most of them are based on past data. Therefore, it is not easy for companies to predict future trends. By utilizing the model and recommendation strategy in this research, trade related services in each platform can be improved so that companies including SMEs can fully utilize the service when making strategies and decisions for exports.

• Journal of the Korea Society of Computer and Information
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• v.26 no.7
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• pp.9-17
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• 2021

In this study, we propose a part of the CDSS(Clinical Decision Support System) study, a system that can classify chemotherapy, one of the treatment methods for colorectal cancer patients. In the treatment of colorectal cancer, the selection of chemotherapy according to the patient's condition is very important because it is directly related to the patient's survival period. Therefore, in this study, chemotherapy was classified using a machine learning algorithm by creating a baseline model, a pathological model, and a combined model using both characteristics of the patient using the individual and pathological characteristics of colorectal cancer patients. As a result of comparing the prediction accuracy with Top-n Accuracy, ROC curve, and AUC, it was found that the combined model showed the best prediction accuracy, and that the LGBM algorithm had the best performance. In this study, a chemotherapy classification model suitable for the patient's condition was constructed by classifying the model by patient characteristics using a machine learning algorithm. Based on the results of this study in future studies, it will be helpful for CDSS research by creating a better performing chemotherapy classification model.

• Journal of Korea Society of Industrial Information Systems
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• v.17 no.7
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• pp.111-118
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• 2012

Recently, most of firms have continuously released new products satisfying various needs of customers in order to increase market share. As a lot of products with various functionalities, prices and designs are released in the market, users have difficulties in choosing an appropriate product, especially for information technology driven devices. In case of digital cameras, inexperienced users spend a lot of time and efforts to find proper model for them. In this study, therefore, we design and implement a personalized recommendation system using analytic hierarchy process, one of the multi-criteria decision making techniques, and hybrid filtering combining content-based filtering and collaborative filtering to recommend a suitable product for inexperienced users of information technology devices.

• Journal of the Korean Institute of Intelligent Systems
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• v.16 no.1
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• pp.61-65
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• 2006

This paper is concerned with a quantitative computational trust model which lakes into account multiple evaluation criteria and uses the recommendation from others in order to get the trust value for entities. In the proposed trust model, the trust for an entity is defined as the expectation for the entity to yield satisfactory outcomes in the given situation. Once an interaction has been made with an entity, it is assumed that outcomes are observed with respect to evaluation criteria. When the trust information is needed, the satisfaction degree, which is the probability to generate satisfactory outcomes for each evaluation criterion, is computed based on the outcome probability distributions and the entity's preference degrees on the outcomes. Then, the satisfaction degrees for evaluation criteria are aggregated into a trust value. At that time, the reputation information is also incorporated into the trust value. This paper presents in detail how the trust model works.

• Journal of Information Technology Services
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• v.16 no.3
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• pp.167-183
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• 2017

The rapid growth of information technology and mobile service platforms, i.e., internet, google, and facebook, etc. has led the abundance of data. Due to this environment, the world is now facing a revolution in the process that data is searched, collected, stored, and shared. Abundance of data gives us several opportunities to knowledge discovery and data mining techniques. In recent years, data mining methods as a solution to discovery and extraction of available knowledge in database has been more popular in e-commerce service fields such as, in particular, movie recommendation. However, most of the classification approaches for predicting the movie popularity have used only several types of information of the movie such as actor, director, rating score, language and countries etc. In this study, we propose a classification-based support vector machine (SVM) model for predicting the movie popularity based on movie's genre data and social network data. Social network analysis (SNA) is used for improving the classification accuracy. This study builds the movies' network (one mode network) based on initial data which is a two mode network as user-to-movie network. For the proposed method we computed degree centrality, betweenness centrality, closeness centrality, and eigenvector centrality as centrality measures in movie's network. Those four centrality values and movies' genre data were used to classify the movie popularity in this study. The logistic regression, neural network, $na{\ddot{i}}ve$ Bayes classifier, and decision tree as benchmarking models for movie popularity classification were also used for comparison with the performance of our proposed model. To assess the classifier's performance accuracy this study used MovieLens data as an open database. Our empirical results indicate that our proposed model with movie's genre and centrality data has by approximately 0% higher accuracy than other classification models with only movie's genre data. The implications of our results show that our proposed model can be used for improving movie popularity classification accuracy.

• Journal of Society of Preventive Korean Medicine
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• v.3 no.2
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• pp.1-23
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• 1999

The purpose of this paper is to survey the current status of service utilization in oriental medicine, to identify the determinants of consumers' decision in the service utilization, and then suggest policy implications for promoting the consumers' utilization. A multiple regression model was adopted to analyze the factors that influence consumer's decision in purchasing the oriental medical services. Data used in this research relied on National Survey Data conducted by Korea Institute of Health and Social Affairs, and sampling survey. The results could be summarized as follows.: 1. the number of visits to oriental medical institutions has shown an overall increase during the last decade since the inception of health insurance for oriental medical services. It still, however, revealed a relatively iow figure to western medical services. 2. the main factors, after controlling demographic variables, that determine consumers' selection between oriental medical services and western medical services are considered to be price, belief in effectiveness of services, waiting time for service. Implications for policy recommendation include 1. to reduce a barrier to service utilization by discounting dramatically the price of herb medicine, which is believed to be crucial in expanding market share, 2. to encourage consumer's belief in clinical effectiveness through a specialization in competitive services compared with wertern medicine, 3. to keep the affirmative image among consumers alive through an active participation of oriental medical doctors in community activities, 4 to change the health care system in favor of oriental medicine in the long run.

• Journal of Digital Convergence
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• v.12 no.5
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• pp.395-401
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• 2014

As social network service becomes common, the consumers use many discount coupons with which they can purchase goods via social commerce. Although, the quantities of coupons offered from social commerce are currently on the sharp increase, customized coupon service that reflects user preference is not offered. This paper proposes a coupon service method reflecting user's subjective inclination targeting food coupons to offer customized coupon service for social commerce. Towards this end, this paper conducts hierarchization of the factors that become standard in selecting coupons including food types, food prices, discount rates and the number of buyers. And then, this study classifies, extracts and offers the coupons using Fuzzy-AHP, a decision making support method that reflects subjective inclination. From the user satisfaction results on the extracted coupons, the users are generally satisfied: very satisfactory with 45%, satisfactory with 33% and fair with 22%, and there was no experiment participant, who was dissatisfied.

• The Journal of Fisheries Business Administration
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• v.35 no.1
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• pp.57-85
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• 2004

To develop an blue tourism website(BTW) for electronic commerce(EC), information requirements of BTW are defined firstly. We defined information requirements of BTW from two aspects, i.e., front office and back office. Information requirements for front office were derived by consumer purchasing decision process. And information requirements for back office were derived by tourism value chain. Total 29 functions are identified as critical EC related functions of BTW. Among them, 25 functions were investigated into BTW. BTWs were searched by search engines - Yahoo and Empas - to Korean websites. There are 12 specialized BTWs, except one cyber museum website. For 12 websites, 25 functions were probed. By the results, in need recognition stage of blue tourism, only weather information was provided in most websites. In information search stage of blue tourism, package recommendation and various contents were provided in most websites. In consumption stage of blue tourism, traffic information were provided in most websites. And in after - sales service stage of blue tourism, bulletin board function was implemented in most websites. The rest of the functions were scarcely implemented. On the whole, it was concluded that most EC related functions of BTW in Korea were not implemented properly. To improve the status quo, it is expected in the dimension of individual website, that marketing planning, customized service, intelligent service, reinforcing purchasing assistance functions, customer relationship management, and escrow service etc. need to be implemented. And it is expected in the dimension of blue tourism industry, that standardizing product catalog, security assistance policy, information sharing by industrial database, finding referral model of BTW, elevating information mind, revising related laws etc. are needed.

• KSII Transactions on Internet and Information Systems (TIIS)
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• v.8 no.2
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• pp.583-600
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• 2014

Social media is considered a valuable platform for gathering and analyzing the collective and subconscious opinions of people in Internet and mobile environments, where they express, explicitly and implicitly, their daily preferences for brands and products. Extracting and tracking the various attitudes and concerns that people express through social media could enable us to categorize brands and decipher individuals' cognitive decision-making structure in their choice of brands. We investigate the cognitive network structure of consumers by building an inter-category map through the mining of big data. In so doing, we create an improved online recommendation model. Building on economic sociology theory, we suggest a framework for revealing collective preference by analyzing the patterns of brand names that users frequently mention in the online public sphere. We expect that our study will be useful for those conducting theoretical research on digital marketing strategies and doing practical work on branding strategies.

• Journal of Internet Computing and Services
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• v.4 no.1
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• pp.75-86
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• 2003

In this paper, we extended hierarchial structure of managed object class to support Role-Based Access Control, and described constraint conditions that have support dynamic temporal function as well as statical temporal function established by management process. And we defined about violation notifications should report to manager when rules violate constraint conditions. Also we presented system architecture that support RBAC with MIB(Management Information Base) of ITU-T recommendation. By access control enforcement and decision function, constraint conditions and activated translation procedure of each roles are described, our system presents dynamic temporal property systematically.