• Title/Summary/Keyword: Real-Time Prediction

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A Study on integrated water management system based on Web maps

  • Choi, Ho Sung;Jung, Jin Young;Park, Koo Rack
    • Journal of the Korea Society of Computer and Information
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    • v.21 no.8
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    • pp.57-64
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    • 2016
  • Initial prevention activities and rapid propagation conditions is the most important to prevent diffusion of water pollution. If water pollutants flow into streams river or main stresm located in environmental conservation area or water intake facilities, we must predict immediately arrival time and the diffusion concentration to the proactive. National Institute of Environmental Research developed water pollution incident response prediction system linking dam and movable weir. the system is mathematical model which is updated daily. Therefore it can quickly predict the arrival time and the diffusion concentration when there are accident of oil spills and hazardous chemicals. Also we equipped with mathematical model and toxicity model of EFDC(Environmental Fluid Dynamics Code) to calculate the arrival time and the diffusion concentration. However these systems offer the services of an offline manner than real-time control services. we have ensured the reliability of data collection and have developed a real-time water quality measurement data transmission device by using the data linkage utilizing a mode bus communication and a commercial SCADA system, in particular, we implemented to be able to do real-time water quality prediction through information infrastructure of the water quality integrated management business created by utilizing the construction of the real-time prediction system that utilizes the data collected, the Open map, the visual representation using charts API and development of integrated management system development based on web maps.

Improving the Accuracy of a Heliocentric Potential (HCP) Prediction Model for the Aviation Radiation Dose

  • Hwang, Junga;Yoon, Kyoung-Won;Jo, Gyeongbok;Noh, Sung-Jun
    • Journal of Astronomy and Space Sciences
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    • v.33 no.4
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    • pp.279-285
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    • 2016
  • The space radiation dose over air routes including polar routes should be carefully considered, especially when space weather shows sudden disturbances such as coronal mass ejections (CMEs), flares, and accompanying solar energetic particle events. We recently established a heliocentric potential (HCP) prediction model for real-time operation of the CARI-6 and CARI-6M programs. Specifically, the HCP value is used as a critical input value in the CARI-6/6M programs, which estimate the aviation route dose based on the effective dose rate. The CARI-6/6M approach is the most widely used technique, and the programs can be obtained from the U.S. Federal Aviation Administration (FAA). However, HCP values are given at a one month delay on the FAA official webpage, which makes it difficult to obtain real-time information on the aviation route dose. In order to overcome this critical limitation regarding the time delay for space weather customers, we developed a HCP prediction model based on sunspot number variations (Hwang et al. 2015). In this paper, we focus on improvements to our HCP prediction model and update it with neutron monitoring data. We found that the most accurate method to derive the HCP value involves (1) real-time daily sunspot assessments, (2) predictions of the daily HCP by our prediction algorithm, and (3) calculations of the resultant daily effective dose rate. Additionally, we also derived the HCP prediction algorithm in this paper by using ground neutron counts. With the compensation stemming from the use of ground neutron count data, the newly developed HCP prediction model was improved.

Creep Life Prediction of Friction Welded Joints (Cu-Alloy/STS316L) for Nuclear Power Plant (원자력 발전소용 마찰용접재 (Cu합금/STS316L)의 크리프 수명예측)

  • 유인종;공유식;오세규;김선진
    • Proceedings of the Korea Committee for Ocean Resources and Engineering Conference
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    • 2001.10a
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    • pp.258-263
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    • 2001
  • In this paper, the real-time prediction of high temperature creep life was carried out for the friction welded joints of dissimilar heat resistintg steels (CulCr0.5Zr-STS316L). Various life prediction methods such as LMP (Larson-Miller Parameter) and ISM (initial strain method) were applied. The creep behaviors of those steels and the welds under static load were examined by ISM combined with LMP at 300, 400 and 50$0^{\circ}C$, and the relationship between these two methods was investigated. A real-time creep life (tsub/r/, hr) prediction equation by initial strain ($\varepsilon_0$, %) under any creep stress ($\sigma$, MP$\alpha$) at any high temperature (T, K) was developed

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Serially Correlated Process Monitoring Using Forward and Backward Prediction Errors from Linear Prediction Lattice Filter

  • Choi, Sungwoon;Lee, Sanghoon
    • Journal of Korean Society for Quality Management
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    • v.26 no.4
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    • pp.143-150
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    • 1998
  • We propose an adaptive monitoring a, pp.oach for serially correlated data. This algorithm uses the adaptive linear prediction lattice filter (ALPLF) which makes it compute process parameters in real time and recursively update their estimates. It involves computation of the forward and backward prediction errors. CUSUM control charts are a, pp.ied to prediction errors simulaneously in both directions as an omnibus method for detecting changes in process parameters. Results of computer simulations demonstrate that the proposed adaptive monitoring a, pp.oach has great potentials for real-time industrial a, pp.ications, which vary frequently in their control environment.

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Preliminary Study for Establishing the Realtime Ocean Prediction System in Busan Harbor (부산항 실시간 해양예보시스템 구축을 위한 기초연구)

  • Jung, Yun-Chul;Lee, Ho-Jin
    • Journal of Navigation and Port Research
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    • v.32 no.3
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    • pp.245-250
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    • 2008
  • Recently the numerical prediction technique is applied to many fields, because numerical models are developed so much for last decades. The real-time ocean prediction system is one of them and is capable of providing the real-time marine information for users to promote the safety af maritime traffic and preservation of marine resources. The system is composed of observing system, data distribution system and modelling system. In this study authors develop the modelling system and show the results as preliminary study for establishing the real-time ocean prediction system in Busan port. The system test is performed only for M2 tidal modelling due to the lack qf observation data, thus a full-scale test is required in future if enough data are provided Also observing system and data distribution system will be constructed continuously in future, then service for real-time data for users will be initiated.

A Real-Time Data Mining for Stream Data Sets (연속발생 데이터를 위한 실시간 데이터 마이닝 기법)

  • Kim Jinhwa;Min Jin Young
    • Journal of the Korean Operations Research and Management Science Society
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    • v.29 no.4
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    • pp.41-60
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    • 2004
  • A stream data is a data set that is accumulated to the data storage from a data source over time continuously. The size of this data set, in many cases. becomes increasingly large over time. To mine information from this massive data. it takes much resource such as storage, memory and time. These unique characteristics of the stream data make it difficult and expensive to use this large size data accumulated over time. Otherwise. if we use only recent or part of a whole data to mine information or pattern. there can be loss of information. which may be useful. To avoid this problem. we suggest a method that efficiently accumulates information. in the form of rule sets. over time. It takes much smaller storage compared to traditional mining methods. These accumulated rule sets are used as prediction models in the future. Based on theories of ensemble approaches. combination of many prediction models. in the form of systematically merged rule sets in this study. is better than one prediction model in performance. This study uses a customer data set that predicts buying power of customers based on their information. This study tests the performance of the suggested method with the data set alone with general prediction methods and compares performances of them.

A study on the prediction method of the real fault distance using probability to the relay data of transmission line fault location (송전선로 거리표정치에 대한 실 고장거리의 확률적 예측방안)

  • Lee, Y.H.;Back, D.H.;Jang, S.H.
    • Proceedings of the KIEE Conference
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    • 2006.07a
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    • pp.10-11
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    • 2006
  • The fault location is obtained from the distance relay that detects the fault of the transmission line. In this time, transmission line crews track down the fault location and the reasons. However, because of having error at the fault location of the distance relay, there is a discordance between real and obtained fault location. As this reason, the inspection time for finding fault location can be longer. In this paper, we proposed the statistical (regression) analysis method based on each type of relay's the historical fault location data and the real fault distance data to improve the problems. With finding the regression equation based on the regression analysis, and putting the relay fault location into that equation, the real fault distance is calculated. As a result of the Prediction fault location, the inspection time of transmission line can be reduced.

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A study on the Reliability System Software based on NHPP(Non-Homogeneous Poisson Process (비-동질 안정 프로세스 기반 임베디드 시스템 소프트웨어의 신뢰성 특성에 관한 연구)

  • 한상섭;백영구;이근석;전현덕;류호중;이기서
    • Proceedings of the KSR Conference
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    • 2001.05a
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    • pp.347-358
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    • 2001
  • In this paper, we apply NHPP model example to s/w process in order to get to know s/w reliability. The test is constructed by a test zig of commercial product loaded real embedded system s/w. It is established to s/w reliability prediction and estimation of real-time embedded system s/w. It is computed the prediction value of cumulative failures, the failure intensity, the reliability and the estimation value of MTTF, Failure Rate. To the more realization of high reliability in the real-time embedded system s/w, if the embedded system s/w is ensured to the test coverage and constructed to stable s/w process & operating system, we can improve the performance and the reliability characteristic of the real-time embedded system s/w.

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A real-time unmeasured dynamic response prediction for nuclear facility pressure pipeline system

  • Seungin Oh ;Hyunwoo Baek ;Kang-Heon Lee ;Dae-Sic Jang;Jihyun Jun ;Jin-Gyun Kim
    • Nuclear Engineering and Technology
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    • v.55 no.7
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    • pp.2642-2649
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    • 2023
  • A real-time unmeasured dynamic response prediction process for the nuclear power plant pressure pipeline is proposed and its performance is tested in the test-loop system (KAERI). The aim of the process is to predict unmeasurable or unreachable dynamic responses such as acceleration, velocity, and displacement by using a limited amount of directly measured physical responses. It is achieved by combining a well-constructed finite element model and robust inverse force identification algorithm. The pressure pipeline system is described by using the displacement-pressure vibro-acoustic formulation to consider fully filled liquid effect inside the pipeline structure. A robust multiphysics modal projection technique is employed for the real-time sensor synchronized prediction. The inverse force identification method is also derived and employed by using Bathe's time integration method to identify the full-field responses of the target system from the modal domain computation. To validate the performance of the proposed process, an experimental test is extensively performed on the nuclear power plant pressure pipeline test-loop under operation conditions. The results show that the proposed identification process could well estimate the unmeasured acceleration in both frequency and time domain faster than 32,768 samples per sec.