• Title/Summary/Keyword: Real options approach

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Applicability of the Real Option Valuation Method to the Economic Analysis of Water Resources Supply Projects (수자원 공급 사업의 경제성 평가: 실물옵션가치평가기법의 적용성 검토)

  • Yu, Soon-Young;Unger, Andre J.A.;Kim, Tae-Hee
    • Economic and Environmental Geology
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    • v.41 no.5
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    • pp.551-562
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    • 2008
  • Option pricing model in finance has been applied to price non-financial options, called real options. The real option valuation method is ideally suited to irreversible decision making under uncertainty, including the need to determine the optimal time to act and even change between alternative courses of action as information is collected. Therefore, the real option valuation method is expected to provide a superior and less subjective approach to determining optimal strategies for water resources supply projects, which have been reported to have huge risks due to uncertainties, and investors and policy makers need to build an optimal strategy - when and if to invest - with uncertainties and managerial flexibilities considered.

Management of ASP Outsourcing Project Risks using Real Option Approach (실물옵션 접근법을 활용한 ASP 아웃소싱 리스크 관리)

  • Nam, Seung-Hyeon
    • Journal of the Korea Academia-Industrial cooperation Society
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    • v.11 no.7
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    • pp.2396-2405
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    • 2010
  • Information System (IS) Outsourcing is one of the powerful alternatives to guarantee the competitive advantages in the rapidly changing business environment. Most studies on IS outsourcing area have focused on the Critical Success Factors(CSFs) influencing the Success of IS outsourcing or the performance measuring the success of IS outsourcing projects. The CSFs or the performances which measures the success of IS outsourcing project have limitations to explain how to succeed in doing IS outsourcing project. This study uses Real Options Approach to make IS outsourcing projects' success by recognizing and minimizing IS outsourcing risks.

Development of Vision Technology for the Test of Soldering and Pattern Recognition of Camera Back Cover (카메라 Back Cover의 형상인식 및 납땜 검사용 Vision 기술 개발)

  • 장영희
    • Proceedings of the Korean Society of Machine Tool Engineers Conference
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    • 1999.10a
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    • pp.119-124
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    • 1999
  • This paper presents new approach to technology pattern recognition of camera back cover and test of soldering. In real-time implementing of pattern recognition camera back cover and test of soldering, the MVB-03 vision board has been used. Image can be captured from standard CCD monochrome camera in resolutions up to 640$\times$480 pixels. Various options re available for color cameras, a synchronous camera reset, and linescan cameras. Image processing os performed using Texas Instruments TMS320C31 digital signal processors. Image display is via a standard composite video monitor and supports non-destructive color overlay. System processing is possible using c30 machine code. Application software can be written in Borland C++ or Visual C++

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Applying a Two-Stage Option Games Method to Investment Decisions of Business Startups: Case Study of a Smart House Startup in Indonesia

  • Wardani, Ida Sri;Fujiwara, Takao
    • Asian Journal of Innovation and Policy
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    • v.7 no.1
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    • pp.178-189
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    • 2018
  • In this paper, we present a case study of a new emerging business startup involved in smart house appliances. The irreversible investment concept and real-option theory are introduced as the fundamentals of the model. By using games theory we show that the startup's actions can trigger reactions from other firms. The first part covers initial the research and development stage, while the second part covers production and commercialization. The findings of this study suggest that, given a certain amount of initial investment, an open and shared innovation may lead to hurting a firm's investment while strengthening the competitors' position in the market. However, given the sensitivity analysis, when volatility and demand grow favorably, sharing R&D investment is not a bad option for a new player to adjust its position in the market while still maintaining positive returns.

Autonomous-Driving Vehicle Learning Environments using Unity Real-time Engine and End-to-End CNN Approach (유니티 실시간 엔진과 End-to-End CNN 접근법을 이용한 자율주행차 학습환경)

  • Hossain, Sabir;Lee, Deok-Jin
    • The Journal of Korea Robotics Society
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    • v.14 no.2
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    • pp.122-130
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    • 2019
  • Collecting a rich but meaningful training data plays a key role in machine learning and deep learning researches for a self-driving vehicle. This paper introduces a detailed overview of existing open-source simulators which could be used for training self-driving vehicles. After reviewing the simulators, we propose a new effective approach to make a synthetic autonomous vehicle simulation platform suitable for learning and training artificial intelligence algorithms. Specially, we develop a synthetic simulator with various realistic situations and weather conditions which make the autonomous shuttle to learn more realistic situations and handle some unexpected events. The virtual environment is the mimics of the activity of a genuine shuttle vehicle on a physical world. Instead of doing the whole experiment of training in the real physical world, scenarios in 3D virtual worlds are made to calculate the parameters and training the model. From the simulator, the user can obtain data for the various situation and utilize it for the training purpose. Flexible options are available to choose sensors, monitor the output and implement any autonomous driving algorithm. Finally, we verify the effectiveness of the developed simulator by implementing an end-to-end CNN algorithm for training a self-driving shuttle.

An Empirical Study on the Control Mechanism of ASP Outsourcing Risks using Real Option Approach (ASP Outsourcing 위험의 효율적인 통제를 위한 실물옵션 적용 가능성에 대한 연구)

  • Nam, Seung-Hyeon;Yang, Hui-Dong
    • Proceedings of the Korea Society for Industrial Systems Conference
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    • 2008.10b
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    • pp.365-384
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    • 2008
  • Many studies on ASP outsourcing area have focused on the Critical Success Factors(CSFs) of ASP outsourcing projects or on the service quality of ASP Service. But these studies have limitations to explain how to succeed in doing ASP outsourcing project. The objective of this research is to overcome this limitation by using the concept of "IT Risk" in Outsourcing. The effective control of the risks-caused during the IS outsourcing process-gives (ASP service using) users a powerful tool to minimize the risks and thus maximizes the possibility of ASP outsourcing project success. In order to perform this objective, this research set up the research model which is composed of three concepts. The three concepts are 1. Undesirable Outcomes(:UO) as IT outsourcing Risks, 2. The Source of Risks(:SOR) influencing the UO, and 3. the intention to get/execute Real Option Portfolio to control the risk level of SORs and UOs. This research has some important and interesting implications on the ASP outsourcing area. First, this research classifies the risk factors as three concepts and finds the interactions among them. Second, Using Real Option portfolio can control the risks effectively occurred during outsourcing projects. Third, Vendors(ASP service providers) can offer users IN TIME the options which can minimize the occurrence of risks.

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A Design-Decision Support Framework for Evaluation of Design Options in Passenger Ship Engine Room

  • Kim, Soo-Woong;Lee, Hyun-Jin;Kwon, Young-Sub
    • Proceedings of the Korea Committee for Ocean Resources and Engineering Conference
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    • 2006.11a
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    • pp.277-280
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    • 2006
  • Most real world design evaluation and risk-based decision support combine quantitative and qualitative (linguistic) variables. Decision-making based on conventional mathematics that combines qualitative and quantitative concepts always exhibit difficulty in modelling actual problems. The successful selection process for choosing a design/procurement proposal is based on a high degree of technical integrity, safety levels and low costs in construction, corrective measures, maintenance, operation, inspection and preventive measures. However, the objectives of maximising the degree of technical performance, maximising the safety levels and minimising the costs incurred are usually in conflict, and the evaluation of the technical performance, safety and costs is always associated with uncertainties, especially for a novel system at the initial concept design stage. In this paper, a design-decision support framework using a composite structure methodology grounded in approximate reasoning approach and evidential reasoning method is suggested for design evaluation of machinery space of a ship engine room at the initial stages. It is a Multiple Attribute Decision-Making (MADM) or Multiple Criteria Decision Making (MCDM) framework, which provides a juxtaposition of cost, safety and technical performance of a system during evaluation to assist decision makers in selecting the winning design/procurement proposal that best satisfies the requirement in hand. An illustrative example is used to demonstrate the application of the proposed framework.

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Chance-constrained Scheduling of Variable Generation and Energy Storage in a Multi-Timescale Framework

  • Tan, Wen-Shan;Abdullah, Md Pauzi;Shaaban, Mohamed
    • Journal of Electrical Engineering and Technology
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    • v.12 no.5
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    • pp.1709-1718
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    • 2017
  • This paper presents a hybrid stochastic deterministic multi-timescale scheduling (SDMS) approach for generation scheduling of a power grid. SDMS considers flexible resource options including conventional generation flexibility in a chance-constrained day-ahead scheduling optimization (DASO). The prime objective of the DASO is the minimization of the daily production cost in power systems with high penetration scenarios of variable generation. Furthermore, energy storage is scheduled in an hourly-ahead deterministic real-time scheduling optimization (RTSO). DASO simulation results are used as the base starting-point values in the hour-ahead online rolling RTSO with a 15-minute time interval. RTSO considers energy storage as another source of grid flexibility, to balance out the deviation between predicted and actual net load demand values. Numerical simulations, on the IEEE RTS test system with high wind penetration levels, indicate the effectiveness of the proposed SDMS framework for managing the grid flexibility to meet the net load demand, in both day-ahead and real-time timescales. Results also highlight the adequacy of the framework to adjust the scheduling, in real-time, to cope with large prediction errors of wind forecasting.

Determinants of Difference in the Value-Earnings Convexity (가치-이익 볼록성 차이의 결정요인에 관한 연구)

  • Shin-Hyoung Kwon;Hae-Rin Shim
    • Asia-Pacific Journal of Business
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    • v.15 no.3
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    • pp.325-349
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    • 2024
  • Purpose - This study aims to identify and document earnings management, sources of investment growth, and CEO personality traits as three determinants of difference in the value-earnings convexity. Design/methodology/approach - To test our hypotheses, we run cross-sectional regressions based on the Fama and Macbeth (1973) procedure using US firm-year observations from 1968 to 2017. Findings - First, we show that the value-earnings association decreases with accruals and real earnings management. Second, we demonstrate that the value-earnings convexity is weaker when investment growth is supported by off-balance-sheet intangible assets relative to on-balance-sheet tangible and intangible assets. Finally, we find that extraverted CEOs and CEOs who are more open to experience are better at exploiting the growth opportunities implied by the current accounting profitability. Conscientious and neurotic personality traits of CEOs make no difference in exploiting the growth opportunities that the current accounting profitability suggests. Research implications or Originality - This study complements and extends the literature on real options and behavioral agency by demonstrating that the value-earnings convexity depends not only on accounting profitability and investment growth rate, but also on earnings management, sources of investment growth, and CEO personality traits.