• Asian Journal of Innovation and Policy
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• v.6 no.2
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• pp.225-244
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• 2017

When evaluating the economic value of technology or business project, we need to consider the period and cost for commercialization. Since the discounted cash flow (DCF) method has limitations in that it can not consider consecutive investment or does not reflect the probabilistic property of commercialization cost, we often take it desirable to apply the concept of real options with key metrics of underlying asset value, commercialization cost, and volatility, while regarding the value of technology and investment as the opportunity value. We at this moment provide more elaborated real options model with the effective region of volatility, which reflects the uncertainty in the option pricing model (OPM).

• Journal of Information Technology Applications and Management
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• v.26 no.6
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• pp.119-138
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• 2019

This work examines whether IT managers adopt of real options such as defer, expand, contract, and abandon in order to cope with ERP risks, which include technological risk, relationship risk with SW vendors, economic risk, and security risk. We collect data of logistics firms in Seoul and its suburbs in 2018 to empirically validate the effect of risks upon the adoption of real options. The results suggest that IT managers adopt all 4 options when facing economic risk and adopt contract and abandon options only when facing security risk. Additionally, we find that IT managers prefers expand option and avoid abandon option when they think ERP compatibility is high.

• Journal of Korean Institute of Industrial Engineers
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• v.33 no.2
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• pp.221-226
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• 2007

This paper suggests a valuation framework of investment project using the concept of real options. We show the valuation process of real assets using the risk-neutral pricing. Especially, we focus on the investment lag. Real assets have investment lag in general. The decision time and the payment time are not identical. So the investment lag should be considered when valuing real assets for reality. We provide the valuation process for real assets, including R&D project. The results of this paper can be used for the real assets valuation and strategic decision analysis.

• Information Systems Review
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• v.20 no.4
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• pp.43-57
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• 2018

We propose network effects upon the investment decision of cloud-based ERP. Using the survey data collected from 82 companies in 2015, we examine whether IT managers have an intention to adopt real options in order to manage the risk of cloud-based ERP investments and how the network effects influence upon the intention to adopt real options. Based on prior literature, we propose a research model with 4 hypotheses. We find partial support of the hypotheses from the empirical analysis: technological risks has a positive impact upon the adoption of real options such as defer, contract, and abandon. In contrast, we find no significant impact of security risks upon real options. We validate positive network effects upon the adoption of real options such as defer, contract, and abandon. This work empirically find that IT managers in Korean middle and small sized firms have an intention to adopt real options when the managers realize economic, technological, and relationship risks and when they expect network effects.

• Asia pacific journal of information systems
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• v.23 no.2
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• pp.41-66
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• 2013

IS outsourcing has an important meaning to the Korean SME's (Small and Medium Enterprises) which want to use the IS Services. The objective of this research is to manage IT risks occurred during IS outsourcing project process. This study tries to identify these risks using real option methodology. In order to perform this objective, this study set up the research model which is composed of two main concepts. The first one is the risk factors occurred during IS outsourcing project process: User's Risks, Supplier's Risks and Transaction's Risks. All of these risks are based on Transaction Cost Theory. The second one is the intention to get (or buy) Real Options to manage the risks. In the research model, two types of real option are included: option to abandon (put option) and option to defer (call option). This study uses questionnaires and statistics methodology (PLS) to analyze the hypotheses proposed in the research model. Compared with prior studies, this study is different in two ways. First, this study restricts the range of IT risks. Prior researches of IT Risk management in MIS area cover various range of IT risks, but this study focuses on the Korean SME's IT outsourcing risks on the basis of Transaction Cost Theory. This study tests the relationship between the risks and real option types. Second, this study tries to test the moderating effect of user's risks and supplier's risks on the relationship between transaction's risks and real option types. In IT outsourcing research area, almost studies focus on the direct relationships between IT risks and outsourcing success. But in reality, the co-relationship among IT risks may occur. There are some findings according to the research analysis. First, risks related with user's risks have strong causal relationships with the intention to get option to abandon (put) and option to defer. But risks related with supplier's risks have causal relationships only with option to abandon (put). Second, user's risks and supplier's risks have no moderating effect on the relationship between transaction's risks and real option types. According to the research results, this research have some important and interesting implications on the IS outsourcing business area. First, this study identifies the effective types of real option to minimize the risks occurred during the IT outsourcing projects. So IS outsourcing service users can manage (or minimize) effectively the risks, which occurred during outsourcing projects, using real options. Second, real option gives benefits to suppliers and users at the same time (i.e., win-win strategies between IS outsourcing service providers and users). Vendors (:IS outsourcing service providers) can offer users the real options which can minimize the occurrence of risks in time. "IN TIME" means that before the IS outsourcing project starts, vendors can offer users the opportunity to buy real options in appropriate prices to manage the possibility of the risks of IS outsourcing project. And users also have chance to minimize the IT outsourcing risks occurred during the project process using real options.

• Journal of Korean Institute of Industrial Engineers
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• v.32 no.3
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• pp.180-190
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• 2006

We evaluate the economic value and the optimal investment timing of IMT-2000 in Korea, in the perspective of a service provider who owns the business license for IMT-2000, by using the real options analysis. The result clearly shows the project value with options is positive and delaying the investment is more favorable to the provider. Binomial lattice approach, in which we try to describe American call option and sequential compound option, and sensitivity analysis present the optimal decisions according to future states and enable the management to make decision strategically and proactively.

• Knowledge Management Research
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• v.17 no.3
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• pp.161-179
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• 2016

The recent patent wars in the information technology (IT) industry demonstrate the strategic importance of IT patents in the industry. In this paper, we adopt the lens of real options to study the value of IT patents for IT firms. Specifically, we examine the relationship between IT patents and firms' market performance. We also consider the moderating effect of the innovation orientation of firms' patent portfolios (exploitative vs. explorative). Based on a large panel dataset consisting of 697 firms in US IT industries, our results suggest that the impact of IT patents on firm value (as measured by Tobin's q) is positive and significant. Further, we find that this impact varies, depending on the innovation orientation of firms' patent portfolios. IT patent portfolios with higher levels of an exploitative orientation are associated with higher firm value, compared to those with a lower exploitative orientation. This study highlights the value of employing real options theory as the underlying mechanism in understanding the impact of patents on firm valuation. Future researchers can adopt the real options lens to identify and empirically examine the role of other factors that may affect the value of patents and other investments exhibiting real option characteristics. While our paper answers some questions about the value of patents in the IT industry, it also raises a number of additional new questions. As such, we hope that it will generate more research on this important topic.

• Clean Technology
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• v.29 no.1
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• pp.59-70
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• 2023

This study aims to introduce a biowaste processing system that uses spent coffee grounds and implement a real options method to evaluate the proposed process. Energy systems based on eco-friendly fuels lack sufficient data, and thus along with conventional approaches, they lack the techno-economic assessment required for great input qualities. On the other hand, real options analysis can estimate the different costs of options, such as continuing or abandoning a project, by considering uncertainties, which can lead to better decision-making. This study investigated the feasibility of a biowaste processing method using spent coffee grounds to produce biofuel and considered three different valuation models, which were the net present value using discounted cash flow, the Black-Scholes and binomial models. The suggested biowaste processing system consumes 200 kg/h of spent coffee grounds. The system utilizes a tilted-slide pyrolysis reactor integrated with a heat exchanger to warm the air, a combustor to generate a primary heat source, and a series of condensers to harness the biofuel. The result of the net present value is South Korean Won (KRW) -225 million, the result of the binomial model is KRW 172 million, and the result of the Black-Scholes model is KRW 1,301 million. These results reveal that a spent coffee ground-related biowaste processing system is worthy of investment from a real options valuation perspective.

• The Journal of Information Systems
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• v.22 no.3
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• pp.43-58
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• 2013

This work investigates factors that may affect the choice of real options by ERP project managers. Financial theory suggest that these factors include risk-free interest rate, time to maturity, volatility of net present value, and options exercise price. Other than these factors, we are interested in the exogenous risks related to external uncertainties about technological cost, user learning and consulting, and so forth and we argue these risks should have a significant impact upon the volatility of net present value. To validate these factors empirically, we collected survey questionnaires from ERP project managers in Korea. We find that perceived exogenous risks with regard to ERP projects influence volatility and additionally find that ERP project managers prefer contract options of the project when the volatility of the project is expected to be high. We expect that this work will not only validate theoretical propositions but help project managers consider ERP options strategically based on these factors.

• International conference on construction engineering and project management
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• 2007.03a
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• pp.563-572
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• 2007

Transportation infrastructure is critical to economic growth of a country such as China. Careful evaluation of investments in traffic infrastructure projects is therefore pertinent. As traditional evaluation methods do not consider the uncertainty of future cash flows and mobility during project execution, the real option approach is gradually gaining recognition in the context of valuing construction and infrastructure projects. However, many of the cases only evaluate individual options separately although multiple options often exist in a typical large infrastructure project. Using a highway project in China as a case study, this paper first evaluates a deferment option and a growth option embedded in the project. Subsequently, the values are combined using the fuzzy analytical hierarchy process. It is found that the combined value is less than the sum of the two option values. This finding is consistent with the theoretical observations given in past real option literature despite the use of a different approach.