• Title/Summary/Keyword: Real options

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Development of an incident impact analysis system using short-term traffic forecasts (단기예측기법을 이용한 연속류 유고영향 분석시스템)

  • Yu, Jeong-Whon;Kim, Ji-Hoon
    • International Journal of Highway Engineering
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    • v.12 no.4
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    • pp.1-9
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    • 2010
  • Predictive information on the freeway incident impacts can be a critical criterion in selecting travel options for users and in operating transportation system for operators. Provided properly, users can select time-effective route and operators can effectively run the system efficiently. In this study, a model is proposed to predict freeway incident impacts. The predictive model for incident impacts is based on short-term prediction. The proposed models are examined using MARE. The analysis results suggest that the models are accurate enough to be deployed in a real-world. The development of microscopic models to predict incident effects is expected to help minimize traffic delay and mitigate related social costs.

Water policy for drought management under climate change through application of real options (실물옵션 적용을 통한 기후변화에 따른 가뭄 대비 수자원 정책)

  • Ihm, Sun Hoo;Choi, Seo Hyung;Kim, Gi Joo;Kim, Young-Oh
    • Proceedings of the Korea Water Resources Association Conference
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    • 2017.05a
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    • pp.258-258
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    • 2017
  • 기후변화에 따른 미래 물 공급의 불확실성으로 인해 기존의 수자원 전략들로 증가하는 물 수요를 안정적으로 충족시키는데 한계가 있다. 국내에서 기후변화 연구에 사용되는 미래 기후시나리오의 불확실성에 대한 전망과 이에 따른 수자원 취약성 평가에만 연구가 집중되고 있다. 하지만 해외의 연구들을 확인해보면 기후변화로 인한 피해를 줄이고자 수자원 정책과 관련한 연구가 활발히 진행되고 있고, 다양한 전략과 방향성을 제시하고 있다. 그렇기 때문에 대한민국에서도 기후변화에 적절한 적응 정책의 개발이 필수적이다. 2015, 2016년에 연속하여 충청남도는 극심한 가뭄을 기록하였다. 2015년의 강우량의 경우 평년의 50%를 기록하였고, 보령댐의 경우 18년 중 최저수위를 기록하였다. 그리하여 충청남도는 용수공급지역인 8개의 지자체에 제한급수를 감행하였다. 이에 대응하기 위해 긴급대책인 도수로 공사와 누수 컨설팅 사업이 대두되었고 그 중 하나인 도수로 공사는 실제로 진행되었다. 본 연구에서는 전통적인 경제성 분석방법인 현금흐름할인법과 의사결정기술 중 하나인 실물 옵션 방법을 통하여 두 사업의 적절성을 평가하였다. 실물옵션 방법을 통해 기후변화의 불확실성과 시간에 따른 역동적인 대안을 제시할 수 있었고 기존 현금흐름할인법의 단점을 보안할 수 있는 실물 옵션의 가치를 파악할 수 있었다. 또한 수자원분야의 의사결정 방법으로 실물 옵션 방법이 이용될 수 있음을 확인하였다.

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A Study on the Techniques for Sailing Yacht Model Tests with Sailing Condition (항주자세를 고러한 세일링 요트의 선형기법 시험연구)

  • Sim, Sang-Mog;Kim, Dong-Joon;Kang, Byung-Yoon
    • Journal of the Society of Naval Architects of Korea
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    • v.43 no.1 s.145
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    • pp.32-42
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    • 2006
  • This study aims at establishing a technique for sailing yachts model tests with sailing condition. It is very important to estimate a ship's potential speed performance before building a real ship. Several methods are used to estimate a ship's potential speed performance such as using parent ship data, standard vessel chart and model test. Model test is the most precise among these options. In korea. model testing is widely used with general vessels but not with sailing yachts. Because sailing yachts are propelled with heeling and leeway. using the wind. another method is needed to estimate their speed. The new model test. which is different from tests for upright general vessels, is in a great demand. In this paper. we describe a test method for the sailing yacht model test. based on Masuyama's equation of motion. And we describe choosing scale ratio. production process and materials of the model. Also. various ways of measuring instruments. attaching jigs and adjusting calibration are described so that they can be utilized as useful data for model testing.

Volatile organic compounds emitted from printing processes and their removal by adsorption (인쇄업에서 배출되는 반응성 VOCs 종류와 흡착 제거 방법의 적용)

  • Ahn, Hae Young;Lee, Yoon Kyoung;Song, Ji Hyeon
    • Journal of odor and indoor environment
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    • v.17 no.4
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    • pp.396-403
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    • 2018
  • In this study, volatile organic compounds (VOCs) emitted from printing industries were analyzed, and an inorganic adsorbent, ${\gamma}-alumina$, was selected for the effective control of the VOC emissions. Printing processes commonly require inks, thinners, and cleaners, and they were mixed organic solvents containing aromatic compounds, ketones, and alcohols. Therefore, toluene, methyl ethyl ketone (MEK), and isopropyl alcohol (IPA) were selected as model compounds for this study. The adsorptive properties using ${\gamma}-alumina$ were determined for the model compounds. Both batch isotherm and continuous flow column tests demonstrated that the adsorption capacity of MEK and IPA was 3~4 times higher than that of toluene. The column test performed at an inlet toluene concentration of 100 ppm showed that an 80% breakthrough for toluene was observed after 3 hours, but both MEK and IPA were continuously adsorbed during the same time period. A numerical model simulated that the ${\gamma}-alumina$ could remove toluene at a loading rate of 0.4 mg/min only for a 4-hour period, which might be too short of a duration for real applications. Consequently, lifetime enhancement for ${\gamma}-alumina$ must be implemented, and ozone oxidation and regeneration would be feasible options.

Virtual Interactive Construction Education (VICE) using BIM Tools

  • James D. Goedert;Yong K. Cho;Mahadevan Subramaniam;Ling Xiao
    • International conference on construction engineering and project management
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    • 2009.05a
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    • pp.781-787
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    • 2009
  • Training and process analysis in the construction industry has not taken full advantage of new technologies such as building information modeling(BIM). The purpose of this research is to develop a framework for the virtual interactive construction education system using three dimensional technologies. The modules will simulate the construction process for a facility from start to finish using information drawn from real projects in the built environment. These modules can be used as training tools for new employees where they attempt to optimize time and cost in a virtual environment given a limited number of equipment, time and employee options. They can also be used as a process analysis tool for new construction where a number of situational variables can change leading to exposure of potential risk. These modules would be particularly useful for repetitive construction where the initial project is analyzed for optimization and risk mitigation. This paper describes the framework and shows a residential construction example using a 900 square foot wood frame single family house designed for the United States.

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Feasibility Study on Remodeling Project By Using Real Option Model : Focusing on Apartment House Remodeling (실물옵션을 활용한 공동주택 리모델링 사업성 평가에 관한 연구 - 아파트 리모델링 사례를 중심으로 -)

  • Yeon, JungHoon;Lee, Hyun-Soo;Park, Moonseo;Kim, Sooyoung;Ahn, Joseph
    • Korean Journal of Construction Engineering and Management
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    • v.15 no.1
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    • pp.39-50
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    • 2014
  • After the global financial crisis, domestic construction industry has gone through a rapid recession. This resulted in gradual market shift towards architectural remodeling. Architectural remodeling not only improves residential environment but it has many advantages such as increase of each unit's exclusive area, free space within the horizontal or extension of an annex building, and increase number of household through splitting the household of bigger pyeong, etc. However, in case of the Korean market for apartment remodeling, due to various regulations and problem with business promotion procedures, majority of business is slow despite the figure that remodeling volume is not that small. Also, feasibility study which decides to push ahead public house remodeling business will have a flaw using net present value's law; it has a flaw of not considering properties of each phase of remodeling business and future's uncertainty. Hence, this research will improve the problem of traditional value assessment method of net present value's law. It will also consider one of the real options such as binomial model in order to supplement NPV which is used in current feasibility study. This research was based on real successful cases of public house remodeling and it was possible for feasibility study which was more realistic and valid. This research provided foundation for development of Korean public house remodeling market. There is high anticipation of increasing the validity by improving the problems of current feasibility study and economic efficiency assessment.

The Effect of Cloud Service Risks on the Intention of Purchasing Real Options: Focusing on Public Cloud Service of Small and Medium-sized Enterprises (클라우드 서비스 위험이 실물옵션 채택의도에 미치는 영향: 중소기업의 퍼블릭 클라우드 서비스를 중심으로)

  • Kim, Jeong-eun;Yang, Hee-dong
    • Information Systems Review
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    • v.17 no.1
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    • pp.117-140
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    • 2015
  • Cloud Computing has drawn attention as one of 10 IT strategic technology trends and has various advantages such as cost reduction and enhancing business flexibility. However, corporations hesitate to adopt the service because of unexpected risks. Especially compared to large firm, medium and small ones use public cloud that security risk is high. Meanwhile, real option strategy has drawn attention as the method to hedge uncertainty in IT projects. Therefore, in this study causal relationships among technical, security, relational, and economic risks of cloud service will be investigated. Eventually, this study investigates how those risks influence the intention to choose the real option about the cloud service. For this study, five hypotheses is drawn, and a survey is conducted about the medium and small firms which are currently using cloud service to examine hypotheses. Since the study is at organizational level, 287 questionnaire replies are recalculated to 120 firms. For statistical analysis, Smart PLS and SPSS Statistics18 are used. As a result, technical risk of cloud service has significantly positive influence on security risk. Second, security risk and relational risk of cloud service has significantly positive influence on economic risk. Third, economic risk of cloud service has significantly positive influence on the intention to purchase the delay option or abandon option. Based on this result, this research discussed practical and academic implications and the limitations.

A Valuation for Gas Hydrate R&D Project Using Fuzzy Real Options Model (퍼지실물옵션모형을 이용한 가스하이드레이트 R&D 사업의 가치평가)

  • Yun, Ga-Hye;Heo, Eunnyeong
    • Environmental and Resource Economics Review
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    • v.18 no.2
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    • pp.217-239
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    • 2009
  • As gas hydrate is recently emerging as a new energy source to solve environmental and exhaustion problems caused by fossil energy, Korea is working on a gas hydrate development project under a 10-year plan from 2005 to 2014. Gas hydrate is expected to have a big effect on the economy and society of Korea, which is largely depending on energy imports besides water energy and atomic energy. However, it is uncertain whether the project will produce successful results. Thus, it is very important to improve its validity and to propose effective execution strategies by evaluating the value of the project in advance. Thus, this study intended to include new information, which had not been evaluated in existing methods, and to reduce biases or errors in value evaluation results by applying a fuzzy risk analysis to the real option model in order to evaluate the value of a gas hydrate development project. It is advantageous that the real option model based on the fuzzy risk analysis modelizes the vagueness and inexactness of intangible element judgment into an appropriate language scale so as to evaluate these elements clearly and integrate them with estimated financial performance results. The application of the fuzzy risk analysis makes it possible to conduct an analysis by dissolving a decision-making issue with complicated and various attributes into several simplified problems. With the continuing high oil prices and today's demand of clean energy, the necessity of energy resources and technology development projects keeps growing. Amid this situation, it is expected that these study results will contribute to proposing a guideline not only for gas hydrate projects but also for policy decision-making related to future energy industries.

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Detection of the Carbapenem Resistance Gene in Gram-negative Rod Bacteria Isolated from Clinical Specimens (임상검체에서 분리된 그람음성막대균으로부터 카바페넴 내성 유전자 검출)

  • Yang, Byoung Seon
    • Korean Journal of Clinical Laboratory Science
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    • v.54 no.3
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    • pp.179-191
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    • 2022
  • Carbapenem-resistant Enterobacteriaceae (CRE) poses an increasing public health threat and has limited treatment options with high associated mortality. Genotypes of carbapenemase that threaten public health (blaKPC, blaNDM, blaIMP, and blaVIM) and blaOXA-48-like genes were detected by phenotypic and molecular diagnosis, and related gene distribution patterns were investigated. Phenotypic testing using the modified Hodge test confirmed positivity in all 41 strains examined, and carbapenemase inhibitory testing using meropenem+phenyl boronic acid or meropenem+EDTA confirmed positivity in 18 and 8 strains, respectively. Polymerase chain reaction revealed the presence of amplification products in 28 strains of blaKPC, 25 strains of blaNDM, 5 strains of blaIMP, 1 strain of blaVIM, and 13 blaOXA-48-like strains. In addition, 7 strains of blaKPC+blaNDM, 1 strain of blaKPC+blaIMP, 1 strain of blaNDM+blaOXA-48-like, 1 strain of blaNDM+blaVIM, 4 strains of blaKPC+blaNDM+blaIMP, and 4 strains of blaKPC+blaNDM+blaOXA-48-like were identified. Melting curve analysis using real-time PCR was wholly consistent with PCR results. The study shows genetic identification of highly specific CRE by real-time PCR could be used to provide early diagnoses and infection control, improve surveillance, and prevent the transmission of CRE.

Study on Ultimate Behavior of Steel Transmission Tower with Residual Stress and Initial Imperfection (잔류응력과 초기변형을 고려한 송전철탑의 비선형 극한거동에 관한 해석적 연구)

  • Chang, Jin Won;Kim, Seung Jun;Park, Jong Sup;Kang, Young Jong
    • Journal of Korean Society of Steel Construction
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    • v.20 no.3
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    • pp.421-435
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    • 2008
  • This paper presents an investigation on the ultimate behavior of a transmission tower using nonlinear analyses inconsideration of residual stress and initial imperfection. Main members, such as main post, horizontal member and diagonal member of the transmission tower were modeled using beam element. Moreover, submembers of the transmission tower were modeled using truss element. ABAQUS (2004) program was used to perform finite element analyses. Initial condition options of the ABAQUS program considering initial stress and imperfection were used in this study. Before performing the analysis of the total transmission tower, simple angle section models using beam or plate/shell element w ere investigated to verify the appropriateness of ABAQUS analysis models and options. According to the verification results, the beam element was used for nonlinear analyses of the transmission tower. From nonlinear analyses results, buckling failure was in the main member of the leg part because of ${P-{\triangle}}$ effect at that point. Also, this paper includes significant results to define real structural failure modes and quantitative values. This study should be used in the development of a reasonable and economic design method for transmission towers.