• 대기
• /
• 제32권2호
• /
• pp.149-162
• /
• 2022

This study investigated the prediction skill of the Asian dust seasonal forecasting model (GloSea5-ADAM) on the Asian dust and meteorological variables related to the dust generation for the period of 1991~2016. Additionally, we evaluated the prediction skill of those variables depending on the combination of the initial dates in the sub-seasonal scale for the dust source region affecting South Korea. The Asian dust and meteorological variables (10 m wind speed, 1.5 m relative humidity, and 1.5 m air temperature) from GloSea5-ADAM were compared to that from Synoptic observation and European Centre for medium range weather forecasts reanalysis v5, respectively, based on Mean Bias Error (MBE), Root Mean Square Error (RMSE), and Anomaly Correlation Coefficient (ACC) as evaluation criteria. In general, the Asian dust and meteorological variables in the source region showed high ACC in the prediction scale within one month. For all variables, the use of the initial dates closest to the prediction month led to the best performances based on MBE, RMSE, and ACC, and the performances could be improved by adjusting the number of ensembles considering the combination of the initial date. ACC was as high as 0.4 in Spring when using the closest two initial dates. In particular, the GloSea5-ADAM shows the best performance of Asian dust generation with an ACC of 0.60 in the occurrence frequency of Asian dust in March when using the closest initial dates for initial conditions.

• Geomechanics and Engineering
• /
• 제29권2호
• /
• pp.113-131
• /
• 2022

A rockburst is a common disaster in deep-tunnel excavation engineering, especially for high-geostress areas. An anomalously low friction effect is one of the most important inducements of rockbursts. To elucidate the correlation between an anomalously low friction effect and a rockburst, we establish a two-dimensional prediction model that considers the discontinuous structure of a rock mass. The degree of freedom of the rotation angle is introduced, thus the motion equations of the blocks under the influence of a transient disturbing force are acquired according to the interactions of the blocks. Based on the two-dimensional discontinuous block model of deep rock mass, a rockburst prediction model is established, and the initiation process of ultra-low friction rockburst is analyzed. In addition, the intensity of a rockburst, including the location, depth, area, and velocity of ejection fragments, can be determined quantitatively using the proposed prediction model. Then, through a specific example, the effects of geomechanical parameters such as the different principal stress ratios, the material properties, a dip of principal stress on the occurrence form and range of rockburst are analyzed. The results indicate that under dynamic disturbance, stress variation on the structural surface in a deep rock mass may directly give rise to a rockburst. The formation of rockburst is characterized by three stages: the appearance of cracks that result from the tension or compression failure of the deformation block, the transformation of strain energy of rock blocks to kinetic energy, and the ejection of some of the free blocks from the surrounding rock mass. Finally, the two-dimensional rockburst prediction model is applied to the construction drainage tunnel project of Jinping II hydropower station. Through the comparison with the field measured rockburst data and UDEC simulation results, it shows that the model in this paper is in good agreement with the actual working conditions, which verifies the accuracy of the model in this paper.

• 아태비즈니스연구
• /
• 제15권1호
• /
• pp.319-334
• /
• 2024

Purpose - The purpose of this study is to examine the gravity model commonly used for demand forecasting upon the implementation of new tourist facilities and analyze the main causation of forecasting errors to provide a suggestion on how to improve. Design/methodology/approach - This study first measured the errors in predicted values derived from past feasibility study reports by examining the cases of five national science museums. Next, to improve the predictive accuracy of the gravity model, the study identified the five most likely issues contributing to errors, applied modified values, and recalculated. The potential for improvement was then evaluated through a comparison of forecasting errors. Findings - First, among the five science museums with very similar characteristics, there was no clear indication of a decrease in the number of visitors to existing facilities due to the introduction of new facilities. Second, representing the attractiveness of tourist facilities using the facility size ratio can lead to significant prediction errors. Third, the impact of distance on demand can vary depending on the characteristics of the facility and the conditions of the area where the facility is located. Fourth, if the distance value is below 1, it is necessary to limit the range of that value to avoid having an excessively small value. Fifth, depending on the type of population data used, prediction results may vary, so it is necessary to use population data suitable for each latent market instead of simply using overall population data. Finally, if a clear trend is anticipated in a certain type of tourist behavior, incorporating this trend into the predicted values could help reduce prediction errors. Research implications or Originality - This study identified the key factors causing prediction errors by using national science museums as cases and proposed directions for improvement. Additionally, suggestions were made to apply the model more flexibly to enhance predictive accuracy. Since reducing prediction errors contributes to increased reliability of analytical results, the findings of this study are expected to contribute to policy decisions handled with more accurate information when running feasibility analyses.

• 제어로봇시스템학회:학술대회논문집
• /
• 제어로봇시스템학회 2003년도 ICCAS
• /
• pp.2226-2229
• /
• 2003

A new method is presented to construct a classifier. This was accomplished by combining a generalized regression neural network (GRNN) and a genetic algorithm (GA). The classifier constructed in this way is referred to as a GA-GRNN. The GA played a role of controlling training factors simultaneously. In GA optimization, neuron spreads were represented in a chromosome. The proposed optimization method was applied to a data set, consisted of 4 different promoter sequences. The training and test data were composed of 115 and 58 sequence patterns, respectively. The range of neuron spreads was experimentally varied from 0.4 to 1.4 with an increment of 0.1. The GA-GRNN was compared to a conventional GRNN. The classifier performance was investigated in terms of the classification sensitivity and prediction accuracy. The GA-GRNN significantly improved the total classification sensitivity compared to the conventional GRNN. Also, the GA-GRNN demonstrated an improvement of about 10.1% in the total prediction accuracy. As a result, the proposed GA-GRNN illustrated improved classification sensitivity and prediction accuracy over the conventional GRNN.

• 산업기술연구
• /
• 제28권A호
• /
• pp.11-17
• /
• 2008

Applicability of hyperbolic settlement prediction method to consolidation settlement in the dredged and reclaimed ground was assessed by analyzing results of centrifuge tests modelling self-weight consolidation of soft marine clay. From literature review about self-weight consolidation of soft marine clays located in southern coast in Korea, constitutive relationships of void ratio - effective stress - permeability and typical self-weight consolidation curves with time were obtained by analyzing centrifuge model experiments. For the condition of surcharge loading, exact solution of consolidation settlement curve obtained by using Terzaghi's consolidation theory was compared with results predicted by the hyperbolic method. It was found to have its own inherent error to predict final consolidation settlement. From results of analyzing thc self-weight consolidation with time by using this method, it predicted relatively well in error range of 0.04~18% for the case of showing the linearity in the relationship between T vs T/S in the stage of consolidation degree of 60~90 %. However, it overestimated the final settlement with large errors if those relation curves were nonlinear.

• 물과 미래
• /
• 제28권1호
• /
• pp.81-90
• /
• 1995

본 연구에서는 장기간의 수문기상자료를 보유하고 있으나 유출량자료의 관측년한이 짧은 유역에서 장기간의 월유출량자료를 확장하고 예측할 수 있는 추계학적 시스템 모형을 개발하고자 한다. 그 방법으로 주기성과 경향성을 갖는 월유출량, 월강수량 및 윌증발량자료를 시계열 분석하여 seasonal ARIMA 형태의 단변량 모형을 유도하는 한편, 각 계열간의 교차상관분석으로부터 월강수량 및 윌증발량을 입력변수로 하고 월유출량을 출력변수로 하는 다중 입력-단일 출력관계의 설명모형을 유도하여 단변량 시계열모형과 비교 검토하였다. 본 연구의 결과 월유출량자료의 확장과 예측에 있어서 다중 입출력모형의 정확성과 적용가능성이 매우 높은 것으로 판단되었다.

• 전자공학회논문지 IE
• /
• 제47권2호
• /
• pp.21-26
• /
• 2010

본 논문에서는 H.264/AVC SE(Scalability Extension)의 부호화 효율을 향상시킬 수 있는 방법을 제안하였다. 제안한 방법은 율-왜곡 최적화 기법(Rate-Distortion Optimization, RDO)이 적용된 JM(Joint Model)의 FME(Fast Motion Estimation)를 대상으로 예측된 움직임 벡터의 방향성을 고려하여 탐색영역을 결정한 후 적용적인 후보 나선형 탐색을 수행한다. 다양한 영상들을 대상으로 실험한 결과 기존의 예측 방식에 최대 80%의 연산량을 줄일 수 있음을 확인하였다. 이에 따른 화질 열화는 평균 0.05dB-0.19dB에 불과하며, 압축률은 평균 0.58%의 미미한 감소를 보임으로써, 제안한 방법이 매우 효율적임을 확인하였다.

• 한국농업기계학회:학술대회논문집
• /
• 한국농업기계학회 2000년도 THE THIRD INTERNATIONAL CONFERENCE ON AGRICULTURAL MACHINERY ENGINEERING. V.III
• /
• pp.560-568
• /
• 2000

The aims of this research were to investigate the preprocessing effect of spectrum data on prediction performance and to develop a robust model to predict SSC in intact apple. Spectrum data of 320 Fuji apples were measured with the on-line transmittance measurement system at the wavelength range of 550∼1100nm. Preprocess methods adopted for the tests were Savitzky Golay, MSC, SNV, first derivative and OSC. Several combinations of those methods were applied to the raw spectrum data set to investigate the relative effect of each method on the performance of the calibration model. PLS method was used to regress the preprocessed data set and the SSCs of samples, and the cross-validation was to select the optimal number of PLS factors. Smoothing and scattering corection were essential in increasing the prediction performance of PLS regression model and the OSC contributed to reduction of the number of PLS factors. The first derivative resulted in unfavorable effect on the prediction performance. MSC and SNV showed similar effect. A robust calibration model could be developed by the preprocessing combination of Savitzky Golay smoothing, MSC and OSC, which resulted in SEP= 0.507, bias=0.032 and R$^2$=0.8823.

• Journal of Biosystems Engineering
• /
• 제34권5호
• /
• pp.297-304
• /
• 2009

This study was conducted to investigate the adequacy of the representative empirical models which are developed for predicting the tractive performance of the tractor operating in various soil conditions. Four representative empirical models which are widely used in the traction prediction of tractor were selected through literature review. Four models were Wismer-Luth, Brixius, Dwyer and Hernandez model, which were empirical traction models of a single wheel. The efficacy of four models were confirmed via comparison of the tractions of tractor predicted using the four models with those measured from traction tests which were conducted for two different driving type (2WD and 4WD) of the tractor on two different soil conditions. The results showed that tractions predicted by Brixius' model, especially for slip range under 20% which the operating efficiency of a tractor is very high, were well consistent with the ones measured from traction test better than the tractions predicted by models which are proposed by Wismer-Luth, Dwyer and Hernandez.

• 한국항공우주학회지
• /
• 제34권11호
• /
• pp.1-8
• /
• 2006

축대칭 발사체의 동적 감쇠계수를 계산하기 위한 정상 예측 방법을 제안한다. 관성좌표계에서 영스핀 코닝 운동을 사용한 정상 해법을 적용하기 위해서는 점성유동 해석이 필수적으로 이루어져야 한다. 제안된 방법을 회전발사체에 적용하여 피칭모멘트와 피치감쇠 모멘트계수를 계산하였다. 결과는 포물형 Navier-Stokes 예측 결과, 실험결과, 비정상 예측 결과와 잘 일치함을 확인하였다. 또한, secant-ogive-cylinder 계열 발사체에 대한 정적 및 동적 계수의 축방향 생성과정을 살펴봄으로써 후방동체의 형상으로 인한 유동 변화가 동적 안정성에 미치는 영향을 고찰하였다.