• Title/Summary/Keyword: Rainfall prediction

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Analysis of Seepage Velocity in Unsaturated Weathered Soils Using Rainfall Infiltration Test (강우침투실험을 통한 불포화 풍화토 지반의 강우 침투속도 분석)

  • Kim, Hoon;Shin, Ho-Sung;Kim, Yun-Tae;Park, Dug-Keun;Min, Tuk-Ki
    • Journal of the Korean Geotechnical Society
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    • v.28 no.2
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    • pp.71-78
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    • 2012
  • Rainfall infiltration test under one dimensional condition is conducted to evaluate the effect of rainfall intensity on seepage velocity and infiltration characteristics for initial unsaturated sediment. Experimental results are compared with those numerical simulations with respect to variations of pore water pressure, degree of saturation and discharge velocity with time, and both results give good agreement. High rainfall intensity tends to increase seepage velocity almost linearly. But it shows rapid increase as rainfall intensity approaches saturated hydraulic conductivity of the sediment. In addition, the upper part of wetting front depth is partially saturated, not fully. Therefore, actual wetting front depth is considered to advance faster than theoretical prediction, which leads to slope instability of unsaturated slope due to surface rainfall.

Correlation Analysis of Basin Characteristics and Limit Rainfall for Inundation Forecasting in Urban Area (도시지역 침수예측을 위한 유역특성과 한계강우량에 대한 상관분석)

  • Kang, Ho Seon;Cho, Jae Woong;Lee, Han Seung;Hwang, Jeong Geun;Moon, Hae Jin
    • Proceedings of the Korea Water Resources Association Conference
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    • 2020.06a
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    • pp.97-97
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    • 2020
  • Flooding in urban areas is caused by heavy rains for a short period of time and drains within 1 to 2 hours. It is also characterized by a small flooding area. In addition, flooding is often caused by various and complex causes such as land use, basin slope, pipe, street inlet, drainage pumping station, making it difficult to predict flooding. Therefore, this study analyzes the effect of each basin characteristic on the occurrence of flooding in urban areas by correlating various basin characteristics, whether or not flooding occurred, and rainfall(Limit Rainfall), and intends to use the data for urban flood prediction. As a result of analyzing the relationship between the imperviousness and the urban slope, pipe, threshold rainfall and limit rainfall, the pipe showed a correlation coefficient of 0.32, and the remaining factors showed low correlation. However, the multiple correlation analysis showed the correlation coefficient about 0.81 - 0.96 depending on the combination, indicating that the correlation was relatively high. In the future, I will further analyze various urban characteristics data, such as area by land use, average watershed elevation, river and coastal proximity, and further analyze the relationship between flooding occurrence and urban characteristics. The relationship between the urban characteristics, the occurrence of flooding and the limiting rainfall amount suggested in this study is expected to be used as basic data for the study to predict urban flooding in the future.

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Assessment of Soil Erosion and Sedimentation in Cheoncheon Basin Considering Hourly Rainfall (시강우를 고려한 천천유역의 토양침식 및 퇴적 평가)

  • Kim, Seongwon;Lee, Daeeop;Jung, Sungho;Lee, Giha
    • Journal of the Korean GEO-environmental Society
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    • v.21 no.4
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    • pp.5-17
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    • 2020
  • In recent years, the frequency of heavy rainfall associated with high rainfall intensity has been continuously increasing due to the effects of climate change; and thus also causes an increase in watershed soil erosion. The existing estimation techniques, used for the prediction of soil erosion in Korea have limitations in predicting the: average soil erosion in watersheds, and the soil erosion associated with abnormal short-term rainfall events. Therefore, it is necessary to consider the characteristics of torrential rainfall, and utilize physics-based model to accurately determine the soil erosion characteristics of a watershed. In this study, the rainfall kinetic energy equation, in the form of power function, is proposed by applying the probability density function, to analyze the rainfall particle distribution. The distributed rainfall-erosion model, which utilizes the proposed rainfall kinetic energy equation, was utilized in this study to determine the soil erosion associated with various typhoon events that occurred at Cheoncheon watershed. As a result, the model efficiency parameters of the model for NSE and RMSE are 0.036 and 4.995 ppm, respectively. Therefore, the suggested soil erosion model, coupled with the proposed rainfall-energy estimation, shows accurate results in predicting soil erosion in a watershed due to short-term rainfall events.

Analysis on Spatial Variability of Rainfall in a Small Area (소규모 지역에 대한 강우의 공간변화도 분석)

  • Kim, Jong Pil;Kim, Won;Kim, Dong-Gu;Lee, Chanjoo
    • Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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    • v.48 no.11
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    • pp.905-913
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    • 2015
  • This study deployed six rain gauges in a small area for a dense network observing rainfall and analyzed the spatial variability of rainfall. They were arranged in a $2{\times}3$ rectangular grid with equal space of 60 m. The rainfall measurements from five gauges were analyzed during the period of 50 days because one was seriously affected by alien substance. The maximum difference in cumulative rainfall from them is approximately 38.5 mm. The correlation coefficients from hourly rainfall time series differ from each other while daily rainfall coincide. The coefficient of variation in hourly rainfall varies up to 224% and that in daily rainfall up to 91%. The results from uncertainty analysis show that with only four rain gauges areal mean rainfall cannot be estimated over 95% accuracy. For reliable flood prediction and effective water management it is required to develop a new technique for the estimation of areal rainfall.

A Feasibility Study of a Rainfall Triggeirng Index Model to Warn Landslides in Korea (산사태 경보를 위한 RTI 모델의 적용성 평가)

  • Chae, Byung-Gon;Choi, Junghae;Jeong, Hae Keun
    • The Journal of Engineering Geology
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    • v.26 no.2
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    • pp.235-250
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    • 2016
  • In Korea, 70% of the annual rainfall falls in summer, and the number of days of extreme rainfall (over 200 mm) is increasing over time. Because rainfall is the most important trigger of landslides, it is necessary to decide a rainfall threshold for landslide warning and to develop a landslide warning model. This study selected 12 study areas that contained landslides with exactly known triggering times and locations, and also rainfall data. The feasibility of applying a Rainfall Triggering Index (RTI) to Korea is analyzed, and three RTI models that consider different time units for rainfall intensity are compared. The analyses show that the 60-minute RTI model failed to predict landslides in three of the study areas, while both the 30- and 10-minute RTI models gave successful predictions for all of the study areas. Each RTI model showed different mean response times to landslide warning: 4.04 hours in the 60-minute RTI model, 6.08 hours in the 30-minute RTI model, and 9.15 hours in the 10-minute RTI model. Longer response times to landslides were possible using models that considered rainfall intensity for shorter periods of time. Considering the large variations in rainfall intensity that may occur within short periods in Korea, it is possible to increase the accuracy of prediction, and thereby improve the early warning of landslides, using a RTI model that considers rainfall intensity for periods of less than 1 hour.

Development of Meso-scale Short Range NWP System for the Cheju Regional Meteorological Office, Korea (제주 지역에 적합한 중규모 단시간 예측 시스템의 개발)

  • Kim, Yong-Sang;Choi, Jun-Tae;Lee, Yong-Hee;Oh, Jai-Ho
    • Journal of the Korean earth science society
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    • v.22 no.3
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    • pp.186-194
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    • 2001
  • The operational meso-scale short range NWP system was developed for Cheju Regional Meteorological Office located at Cheju island, Korea. The Central Meteorological Service Center, KMA has reported the information on numerical weather prediction every 12 hours. But this information is not enough to determine the detail forecast for the regional meteorological office because the terrain of the Korean peninsula is very complex and the resolution of the numerical model provided by KMA headquarter is too coarse to resolve the local severe weather system such as heavy rainfall. LAPS and MM5 models were chosen for three-dimentional data assimilation and numerical weather prediction tools respectively. LAPS was designed to provide the initial data to all regional numerical prediction models including MM5. Synoptic observational data from GTS, satellite brightness temperature data from GMS-5 and the composite reflectivity data from 5 radar sites were used in the LAPS data assimilation for producing the initial data. MM5 was performed on PC-cluster based on 16 pentium CPUs which was one of the cheapest distributed parallel computer in these days. We named this system as Halla Short Range Prediction System (HSRPS). HSRPS was verified by heavy rainfall case in July 9, 1999, it showed that HSRPS well resolved local severe weather which was not simulated by 30 km MM5/KMA. Especially, the structure of rainfall amount was very close to the corresponding observation. HSRPS will be operating every 6 hours in the Cheju Regional Meteorological Office from April 2000.

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Estimation of Design Rainfall by the Regional Frequency Analysis - On the method of L-moments - (지역화빈도분석에 의한 설계강우량 추정 - L-모맨트법을 중심으로 -)

  • Lee, Soon-Hyuk;Park, Jong-Hwa;Ryoo, Kyong-Sik;Jee, Ho-Keun;Jeon, Taek-Ki;Shin, Yong-Hee
    • Proceedings of the Korean Society of Agricultural Engineers Conference
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    • 2001.10a
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    • pp.319-323
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    • 2001
  • This study was conducted to derive the regional design rainfall by the regional frequency analysis based on the regionalization of the precipitation. Using the L-moment ratios and Kolmogorov-Smirnov test, the underlying regional probability distribution was identified to be the Generalized extreme value distribution among apt]lied distributions. regional and at-site parameters of the Generalized extreme value distribution were estimated by the method of L-moment. The regional and at-site analysis for the design rainfall were tested by Monte Carlo simulation. Relative root-mean-square error(RRMSE), relative bias(RBIAS) and relative reduction(RR) in RRMSE were computed and compared with those resulting from at-site Monte Carlo simulation. All show that the regional analysis procedure can substantially reduce the RRMSE, RBIAS and RR in RRMSE in the prediction of design rainfall. Consequently, optimal design rainfalls following the regions and consecutive durations were derived by the regional frequency analysis.

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Prediction of fuel moisture change on pinus densiflora surface fuels after rainfall in East sea region. (영동지역 봄철 산불기간 중 소나무림 지표연료의 임내 연료습도변화 예측)

  • Lee, Si-Young;Lee, Myung-Woog;Kwon, Chun-Geun;Yeom, Chan-Ho;Lee, Hae-Pyeong
    • Proceedings of the Korea Institute of Fire Science and Engineering Conference
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    • 2008.04a
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    • pp.333-336
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    • 2008
  • This study is the result between the variation of fuel moisture and the risk of forest fire through measuring the change of moisture containing ratio on-site and its average analysis for each diameter of surface dead fuels in the forest. The measurement was performed on six days from the day after a rainfall. The fuel moisture on-site was measured on the day when the accumulated rainfall was above 5.0mm, and the measurements was 2 times in spring. From the pine forest which were distributed around Samcheok and Donghae in Kangwondo, three regions were selected by loose, medium, and dense forest density, and the fuel moisture was measured on the ranges which are less than 0.6cm, 0.6-3.0cm, 3.0-6.0cm, and more than 6.0cm in the forest for six days from the day after a rainfall. The study showed that the moisture containing ratio converged on 3 - 4 days for surface deads fuels which diameter are less than 3.0cm and the convergence was made more than six days for ones which diameters are more than 3.0cm except the surface dead fuel of 3.0-6.0cm diameter of loose forest density.

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Estimation of Design Rainfall by the Regional Frequency Analysis using Higher Probability Weighted Moments and GIS Techniques(l ) - On the method of L-moments- (고차확률가중모멘트법에 의한 지역화빈도분석과 GIS기법에 의한 설계강우량 추정(II) - L-모멘트법을 중심으로 -)

  • 이순혁;박종화;류경식
    • Magazine of the Korean Society of Agricultural Engineers
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    • v.43 no.5
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    • pp.70-82
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    • 2001
  • This study was conducted to derive the regional design rainfall by the regional frequency analysis based on the regionalization of the precipitation suggested by the first report of this project. Using the L-moment ratios and Kolmogorov-Smirnov test, the underlying regional probability distribution was identified to be the Generalized extreme value distribution among applied distributions. Regional and at-site parameters of the generalized extreme value distribution were estimated by the linear combination of the probability weighted moments, L-moment. The regional and at-site analysis for the design rainfall were tested by Monte Carlo simulation. Relative root-mean-square error(RRMSE), relative bias(RBIAS) and relative reduction(RR) in RRMSE were computed and compared with those resulting from at-site Monte Carlo simulation. All show that the regional analysis procedure can substantially reduce the RRMSE, RBIAS and RR in RRMSE in the prediction of design rainfall. Consequently, optimal design rainfalls following the legions and consecutive durations were derived by the regional frequency analysis.

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Development of 1ST-Model for 1 hour-heavy rain damage scale prediction based on AI models (1시간 호우피해 규모 예측을 위한 AI 기반의 1ST-모형 개발)

  • Lee, Joonhak;Lee, Haneul;Kang, Narae;Hwang, Seokhwan;Kim, Hung Soo;Kim, Soojun
    • Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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    • v.56 no.5
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    • pp.311-323
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    • 2023
  • In order to reduce disaster damage by localized heavy rains, floods, and urban inundation, it is important to know in advance whether natural disasters occur. Currently, heavy rain watch and heavy rain warning by the criteria of the Korea Meteorological Administration are being issued in Korea. However, since this one criterion is applied to the whole country, we can not clearly recognize heavy rain damage for a specific region in advance. Therefore, in this paper, we tried to reset the current criteria for a special weather report which considers the regional characteristics and to predict the damage caused by rainfall after 1 hour. The study area was selected as Gyeonggi-province, where has more frequent heavy rain damage than other regions. Then, the rainfall inducing disaster or hazard-triggering rainfall was set by utilizing hourly rainfall and heavy rain damage data, considering the local characteristics. The heavy rain damage prediction model was developed by a decision tree model and a random forest model, which are machine learning technique and by rainfall inducing disaster and rainfall data. In addition, long short-term memory and deep neural network models were used for predicting rainfall after 1 hour. The predicted rainfall by a developed prediction model was applied to the trained classification model and we predicted whether the rain damage after 1 hour will be occurred or not and we called this as 1ST-Model. The 1ST-Model can be used for preventing and preparing heavy rain disaster and it is judged to be of great contribution in reducing damage caused by heavy rain.