• Title/Summary/Keyword: Rainfall model

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A Rainfall Forecasting Model for the Ungaged Point of Meteorological Data (기상 자료 미계측 지점의 강우 예보 모형)

  • Lee, Jae Hyoung;Jeon, Ir Kweon
    • KSCE Journal of Civil and Environmental Engineering Research
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    • v.14 no.2
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    • pp.307-316
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    • 1994
  • The rainfall forecasting model of the short term is improved at the point where meterological data is not gaged. In this study, the adopted model is based on the assumptions for simulation model of rainfall process, meteorological homogeneousness, prediction and estimation of meteorological data. A Kalman Filter technique is used for rainfall forecasting. In the existing models, the equation of the model is non-linear type with regard to rainfall rate, because hydrometer size distribution (HSD) depends on rainfall intensity. The equation is linearized about rainfall rate as HSD is formulated by the function of the water storage in the cloud. And meteorological input variables are predicted by emprical model. It is applied to the storm events over Taech'ong Dam area. The results show that root mean square error between the forecasted and the observed rainfall intensity is varing from 0.3 to 1.01 mm/hr. It is suggested that the assumptions of this study be reasonable and our model is useful for the short term rainfall forecasting at the ungaged point of the meteorological data.

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Model Test to Predict the Runout Distance of Landslide according to Hourly Rainfall (강우강도에 따른 산사태 확산범위 예측을 위한 모형실험)

  • Song, Young-Suk;Chae, Byung-Gon;Kim, Won-Young;Seo, Yong-Seok
    • Proceedings of the Korean Geotechical Society Conference
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    • 2006.03a
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    • pp.12-19
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    • 2006
  • Landslide model experiments considering hourly rainfall were performed to investigate and predict the run out distance induced by landslides. The model flume and the rainfall simulator were designed and produced. The model flume was designed in consideration of the landslide characteristics of Korea. The landslides in Korea were mainly occurred in the interface between soil layer and rock layer. The rainfall simulator was produced for controlling hourly rainfall ranged from 100mm/hr to 1,000mm/hr. Jumnunjin standard sand as slope soils was placed on the model flume. The model experiments were performed with changing the hourly rainfall ranged from 150mm/hr to 250mm/hr. In this experiments, the inclination of slope was 25o and the relative density of slope soils was 35%. As a result of experiments, the pore water pressure is rapidly increased at landslide occurring time, and the scale of landslide is increased with increasing in hourly rainfall. The spreading range of run out distance is occurred with pan type, and the spreading width and length are rapidly increased in its early stage and slowly increased after early stage. Also, The increasing velocity of run out distance of debris is influenced by hourly rainfall.

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Estimation of Flash Flood Guidance considering Uncertainty of Rainfall-Runoff Model (강우-유출 모형의 불확실성을 고려한 돌발홍수기준)

  • Lee, Keon-Haeng;Kim, Hung-Soo;Kim, Soo-Jun;Kim, Byung-Sik
    • Journal of Wetlands Research
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    • v.12 no.3
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    • pp.155-163
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    • 2010
  • The flash flood is characterized as flood leading to damage by heavy rainfall occurred in steep slope and impervious area with short duration. Flash flood occurs when rainfall exceeds Flash Flood Guidance(FFG). So, the accurate estimation of FFG will be helpful in flash flood forecasting and warning system. Say, if we can reduce the uncertainty of rainfall-runoff relationship, FFG can be estimated more accurately. However, since the rainfall-runoff models have their own parameter characteristics, the uncertainty of FFG will depend upon the selection of rainfall-runoff model. This study used four rainfall-runoff models of HEC-HMS model, Storage Function model, SSARR model and TANK model for the estimation of models' uncertainties by using Monte Carlo simulation. Then, we derived the confidence limits of rainfall-runoff relationship by four models on 95%-confidence level.

Rainfall Adjustment on Duration and Topographic Elevation (지속시간 및 표고에 따른 강우량 보정에 관한 연구)

  • Um, Myoung-Jin;Cho, Won-Cheol;Rim, Hae-Wook
    • Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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    • v.40 no.7
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    • pp.511-521
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    • 2007
  • The objective of this study is to develop a method of rainfall adjustment on duration and topographic elevation for rainfall data in Jejudo. The method of rainfall adjustment is based on the polynomial regression analysis for the hourly rainfall data and the distribution of observatories of korea meteorological administration. As the results of modeling have shown, duration and rainfall are more correlated than topographic elevation and rainfall, and the model which considers only an elevation exaggerates the amount of rainfall adjustment. Hence the model of duration-elevation-rainfall is more competitive to the natural rainfall event than the model of topographic elevation-rainfall. However this model require to supplement a small number of rainfall observatories and short observed period.

Performance Evaluation of Rainfall Disaggregation according to Temporal Scale of Rainfall Data (강우자료의 시간해상도에 따른 강우 분해 성능 평가)

  • Lee, Jeonghoon;Jang, Juhyoung;Kim, Sangdan
    • Journal of Wetlands Research
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    • v.20 no.4
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    • pp.345-352
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    • 2018
  • In this study, rainfall data with various temporal scales (3-, 6-, 12-, 24-hr) are disaggregated into 1-hourly rainfall data to evaluate the performance of rainfall disaggregation technique. The rainfall disaggregation technique is based on a database generated by the stochastic point rainfall model, the Neyman-Scott Rectangular Pulse Model (NSRPM). Performance evaluation is carried out using July rainfall data of Ulsan, Changwon, Busan and Milyang weather stations in Korea. As a result, the rainfall disaggregation technique showed excellent performance that can consider not only the major statistics of rainfall but also the spatial correlation. It also indirectly shows the uncertainty of future climate change scenarios with daily temporal scale. The rainfall disaggregation technique is expected to disaggregate the future climate change scenarios, and to be effective in the future watershed management.

A Study on a Model of Rainfall Drop-Size Distribution over Daegwanryeong Mountainous Area Using PARSIVEL Observations (PARSIVEL 측정 자료를 활용한 대관령 산악지역 강수입자분포 모형 연구)

  • Park, Rae-Seol;Jang, Min;Oh, Sung Nam;Hong, Yun-Ki
    • Journal of the Korean earth science society
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    • v.35 no.7
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    • pp.518-528
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    • 2014
  • In this study, a model of rainfall drop-size distribution was modified using PARSIVEL-retrieved rainfall drop-size distribution over Daegwanryeong mountainous area. A prototype model (Modified ${\Gamma}$ distribution model) applicable for this area was decided through the comparative analysis between results from models proposed by preceding research and PARSIVEL-retrieved data over Daegwanryeong mountainous area. In order to apply the prototype model for Daegwanryeong region, the parameters (${\alpha}$, A, B) were made via sensitivity experiments and models of the rainfall drop-size distributions for five cases of rainfall rate were proposed. Results from the proposed five models showed high correlations with PARSIVEL-retrieved data ($R^2=0.975$). In order to suggest a generalized form of rainfall drop-size distribution, interaction equations between rainfall rates and parameters (${\alpha}$, A, B) were investigated. The generalized model of the rainfall drop-size distribution was highly correlated with PARSIVEL-retrieved data ($R^2=0.953$), which means that the proposed model from this study was effective for simulating the rainfall drop-size distribution over Daegwanryeong region. However, the proposed model was optimized for rainfall drop-size distribution over Daegwanryeong region. Therefore, broad observations of other regions are necessary in order to develop the representative model of the Korean peninsula.

Saturation Depth and Slope Stability considering Unsteady Rainfall in Natural Slope (비정상강우를 적용한 자연사면에서의 포화깊이 산정 및 사면안정성 평가)

  • Kim, Sang-Hoon;Kim, Seong-Pil;Son, Young-Hwan;Heo, Joon;Chang, Pyoung-Wuck
    • Journal of The Korean Society of Agricultural Engineers
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    • v.49 no.1
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    • pp.57-65
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    • 2007
  • In Korea, most landslides occurr during the rainy season and have shallow failure planes parallel to the slope. For these types of rainfall-induced failures, the most important factor triggering slope unstability is decrease in the matric suction of unsaturated soils with increasing saturation depth by rainfall infiltration. For this reason, estimation of cumulative infiltration has a significance. In this study, infiltration rate and cumulative infiltration are estimated by using both Mein & Larson model based on Green-Ampt infiltration model and using modified Mein & Larson model to which unsteady rainfall is applied. According to the results, the modified model is more reasonable than Mein & Larson method itself in estimation of infiltration rate and saturation depth because of considering real pending condition.

Comparison of Urban Runoff Models for Interior Drainage in Urban Basin (도시유역의 내수배제를 위한 도시유출모델의 비교)

  • Choi, Yun-Young;Lee, Yeong-Hwal;Jee, Hong-Kee
    • Journal of Korean Society of Water and Wastewater
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    • v.14 no.3
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    • pp.251-259
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    • 2000
  • In this study, the urban runoff models, ILLUDAS model and SWMM, are analyzed the probable peak discharge and discharge using rainfall distribution by Huff's method at Bum-uh chun area in Taegu city. The probability rainfall and intensity is analyzed by Pearson-III type. The rainfall duration, 90 minutes, is determined by the critical duration computed the maximun peak discharge for some rainfall durations. The peak discharge according to Huff's rainfall distribution types compute in order of type 3, type 4, type2, and type 1, so Huff's 3 type is selected as an adequate rainfall distribution in Bum-uh chun basin. ILLUDAS model and SWMM are shown as good models in Bum-uh chun, but SWMM is computed higher peak discharge than ILLUDAS model, so SWMM is shown as the adequate urban runoff model for the design of interior drainage in urban basin.

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LONG-TERM STREAMFLOW SENSITIVITY TO RAINFALL VARIABILITY UNDER IPCC SRES CLIMATE CHANGE SCENARIO

  • Kang, Boo-sik;Jorge a. ramirez, Jorge-A.-Ramirez
    • Water Engineering Research
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    • v.5 no.2
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    • pp.81-99
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    • 2004
  • Long term streamflow regime under virtual climate change scenario was examined. Rainfall forecast simulation of the Canadian Global Coupled Model (CGCM2) of the Canadian Climate Center for modeling and analysis for the IPCC SRES B2 scenario was used for analysis. The B2 scenario envisions slower population growth (10.4 billion by 2010) with a more rapidly evolving economy and more emphasis on environmental protection. The relatively large scale of GCM hinders the accurate computation of the important streamflow characteristics such as the peak flow rate and lag time, etc. The GCM rainfall with more than 100km scale was downscaled to 2km-scale using the space-time stochastic random cascade model. The HEC-HMS was used for distributed hydrologic model which can take the grid rainfall as input data. The result illustrates that the annual variation of the total runoff and the peak flow can be much greater than rainfall variation, which means actual impact of rainfall variation for the available water resources can be much greater than the extent of the rainfall variation.

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The Assessment of Application of the Distributed Runoff Model in accordance with Rainfall Data Form (강우 자료 형태에 따른 분포형 유출 모형의 적용성 평가)

  • Choi, Yong Joon;Kim, Joo Cheol
    • Journal of Korean Society on Water Environment
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    • v.26 no.2
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    • pp.252-260
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    • 2010
  • The point rainfall measurements need to be converted to the areal rainfall by means of mean areal precipitation (MAP) estimation methods. And it is not appropriate to evaluate the areal rainfall with constant drift because of the geomorphological influences to rainfall field. Non-stationarity should be applied to the estimation of the areal rainfall, therefore, to consider these effects. Kriging methods with special functional would be a suitable tool in this case. Generalized covariance Kriging method is the most developed one among different Kriging methods. From this point of view this study performs the analysis of its applicability to distributed runoff model. For these purpose, distributed rainfall was created by Thiessen and Kriging method. And distributed rainfall of each method was applied into HyGIS-GRM. The result of applying, Runoff was different in the rainfall data form. Therefore, To apply Kriging method with physical meaning is that it is the useful method as distributed rainfall-runoff model.