• 방사선산업학회지
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• 제17권4호
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• pp.345-357
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• 2023

Nuclear forensics has been understood as a mendatory component in the international society for nuclear material control and non-proliferation verification. Radiochronometry of nuclear activities for nuclear forensics are decay series characteristics of nuclear materials and the Bateman equation to estimate when nuclear materials were purified and produced. Radiochronometry values have uncertainty of measurement due to the uncertainty factors in the estimation process. These uncertainties should be calculated using appropriate evaluation methods that are representative of the accuracy and reliability. The IAEA, US, and EU have been researched on radiochronometry and uncertainty of measurement, although the uncertainty calculation method using the Bateman equation is limited by the underestimation of the decay constant and the impossibility of estimating the age of more than one generation, so it is necessary to conduct uncertainty calculation research using computer simulation such as Monte Carlo method. This highlights the need for research using computational simulations, such as the Monte Carlo method, to overcome these limitations. In this study, we have analyzed mathematical models and the LHS (Latin Hypercube Sampling) methods to enhance the reliability of radiochronometry which is to develop an uncertainty algorithm for nuclear material radiochronometry using Bateman Equation. We analyzed the LHS method, which can obtain effective statistical results with a small number of samples, and applied it to algorithms that are Monte Carlo methods for uncertainty calculation by computer simulation. This was implemented through the MATLAB computational software. The uncertainty calculation model using mathematical models demonstrated characteristics based on the relationship between sensitivity coefficients and radiative equilibrium. Computational simulation random sampling showed characteristics dependent on random sampling methods, sampling iteration counts, and the probability distribution of uncertainty factors. For validation, we compared models from various international organizations, mathematical models, and the Monte Carlo method. The developed algorithm was found to perform calculations at an equivalent level of accuracy compared to overseas institutions and mathematical model-based methods. To enhance usability, future research and comparisons·validations need to incorporate more complex decay chains and non-homogeneous conditions. The results of this study can serve as foundational technology in the nuclear forensics field, providing tools for the identification of signature nuclides and aiding in the research, development, comparison, and validation of related technologies.

• 한국방사선학회논문지
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• 제17권7호
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• pp.1075-1089
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• 2023

핵감식은 국제사회에서 핵물질 통제 및 핵비확산 검증에 필수적인 부분으로 인식되고 있다. 핵감식을 위한 연대추정은 붕괴계열 특성 및 베이트만 방정식을 기반으로 핵물질의 정제 및 생산시기를 추정한다. 연대추정을 위한 요소 중 붕괴상수와 핵종 수는 분석이나 반복 실험을 통해 도출된 통계로 불확도를 가지기 때문에 연대추정의 결과도 불확도를 가진다. 본 연구는 기존의 베이트만 방정식 기반의 연대추정 불확도 계산의 한계를 극복하기 위해 전산모사를 통한 불확도 계산 알고리즘을 연구하였다. 불확도 계산 결과 기존 불확도 계산 방법과 동등한 수준의 결과가 나타났으며, 기존의 한계를 극복하여 2세대 이상의 불확도 계산이 가능하였고 불확도 계산 중 붕괴상수의 과소평가도 개선되었다.