• 제목/요약/키워드: ROK-United States alliance

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한미동맹과 대량무기 확산방지구상에 대한 해석 (Interpretation of the ROK-U.S. Alliance and PSI)

  • 김주원
    • 한국정보통신학회논문지
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    • 제16권5호
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    • pp.1102-1112
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    • 2012
  • 미국의 한반도 정책은 비핵화이다. 미국정부는 북한의 핵위협을 제거하기 위해 군사행동의 가능성을 고려했었다. 군사행동 고려는 1993년 중반부터 1994년 중반까지 정점에 달했다. 그러한 공격은 직접적으로 한국전을 일으켰을 것이다. 당시 북핵위기는 북미협상과 한미동맹에 의해 해결되었다. PSI의 목적은 지구적 또는 지역적 안보에 심각한 위협을 일으키는 국가나 비국가행위자에게 대량살상무기, 운반체계, 관련 물질의 확산을 막거나 적어도 억제하는 것이다. PSI의 가장 논쟁의 여지가 있는 활동은 차단이다. 북한은 구상에 대해 심각한 우려를 표명하면서 다음과 같이 언급하였다. 무기를 개발하고, 배치하고, 수출하는 것은 주권이다. 그리고 자신들의 선박에 대한 차단은 선전 포고로 간주할 것이다. 한국이 북한선박에 대한 차단을 시행하면 북한은 도발로 대응할 것이므로 한반도의 긴장은 극적으로 증가할 것이다. 한국은 한미동맹과 남북관계를 고려해야하기 때문에 PSI에 매우 조심스럽게 접근하지 않을 수 없다.

북한 핵위협 극복을 위한 한미동맹 효용성: 평가와 대책 (The Efficiency of ROK-U.S. Alliance in Order to Overcome North Korea's Nuclear Threats: Evaluations & Measures)

  • 김연준
    • 융합보안논문지
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    • 제17권2호
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    • pp.89-100
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    • 2017
  • 지난 2017년 1월, 트럼프가 미국의 제 45대 대통령으로 취임하였다. 그는 대선기간 중에 '미국 우선주의'(America First)를 적극적으로 표방하였다. 그의 이런 주장이 대외정책에 있어서 '고립주의'(Isolationism)를 표방하는 것으로 비취지고 있다. 북한의 핵위협에 대하여 미국의 '확장억제'(Extended Deterrenc)에 전적으로 의존하고 있는 한국에 있어서 이는 단순한 문제가 아니다. 즉 미국이 고립주의로 회귀하여 한미동맹 공약이행 의지가 약화되는 것으로 인식될 경우 북한의 오판 가능성은 그만큼 높아질 것이기 때문이다. 그동안 한국사회에서는 미국으로부터 안보를 지원받고 정책적 공조를 제공하는 전형적인 '비대칭 동맹'(Asymmetry Alliance)인 한미동맹의 가치를 재평가하려는 다양한 시도가 있었다. 이에 북한의 고도화된 핵도발 위협에 효과적으로 대응하고, 신장된 한국의 국력수준에 부합된 한미동맹의 효용성을 동맹이론에 입각하여 평가해보고 대책을 강구하였다. 이를 위해 본 연구는 한미동맹을 '자율성-안보 교환 모델'에 기초하여, 위협인식, 정책공조와, 동맹국으로서 가치 측면으로 구체화하여 평가해보고, 향후 한미동맹의 전략적 함의를 도출하였다.

일본의 개헌(改憲) 추진이 우리 해양안보에 미치는 영향과 대응방안 (The Impact of Japan's Pursuit of Constitutional Amendment on Marine Security and Countermeasures)

  • 허송
    • Strategy21
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    • 통권44호
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    • pp.54-78
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    • 2018
  • The core of the current constitutional amendment pursued by the Abe administration depends on the status of the Japanese Self-Defense Forces, which include the right to engage in war, in the legal and regular military positions. This is an important turning point for the Abe administration, which aims to become a normal country for Japan, and it is a series of steps that followed in the revision of the U.S. and Japan guidelines in 2015 and the overhaul of the security law in 2016. In this paper, we propose building "A navy Attractive to Alliances" as a way to secure Korea's maritime security under the current security environment. The term "attraction" refers to the alliance "first priority" especially in the United States. The way to do this is to transform the paradigm of the ROK-U.S. alliance into a naval hub in the vast seas, which will allow us to strengthen our national defense and even deter threats from neighboring countries. To this end, our navy needs to have a more active approach to U.S. East Asian strategy. If we can convince the United States to be a nation that contributes more to its East Asian strategy, it will only lead to a strengthening of the status of its alliance and expansion of its unilateral support and military capability against Japan, thus minimizing Japan's influence.

실물옵션에 기반한 한·미국방예산 분담금 적정성 검정 (A Real Options Approach to Testing the Validity of Contribution to the Budget of the United States Forces Korea)

  • 정원열;채원영;최문섭
    • 대한산업공학회지
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    • 제41권3호
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    • pp.287-295
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    • 2015
  • Due to the latest agreement between the military authorities of the Republic of Korea (ROK) and the United States (US) of America, Korea's annual contribution to the budget of the United States Forces Korea (USFK) rose as high as close to 1 trillion won. This seemingly prohibitive amount has led to the questioning of military critics regarding determination criteria, wholesomeness of cost, alignment of incentives, and implementational transparency, etc. As these sources of mistrust can potentially undermine the congruence of alliance, we attempt to devise a scientific means to test the validity of Korea's budget contribution. Specifically, we use the real options approach (ROA) to estimating the interval of the fair prices of maintaining the USFK. We consider the USFK as an insurance against foreign incursions, and this enables us to assume their role as a put option. Upon a hypothetical war breakout, the daily cumulative size of the Korean economy is estimated by implementing the simulated loss ratios of assets and population. As a result, the strategic value (put premium) of the USFK is exponentially higher the sooner the US forces are augmented following an intrusion. Also, Korea's payments toward the USFK in 2011 and 2012 appear theoretically fairly valued.

해양력 변화와 한반도 해양분쟁 발생의 상관관계 연구 - 해양국력과 동맹전이이론의 타당성 검증을 중심으로 - (A Study of Relationship between Changing of Sea Power and Maritime Conflicts of the Korean Peninsula)

  • 김용식
    • Strategy21
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    • 통권36호
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    • pp.180-214
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    • 2015
  • The Republic of Korea navy challenged from the unexpected surprise attacks by the North Korea navy, albeit, the developments of up-to-date naval forces' technology, and the ceaseless efforts for war preparedness. My study divided into two categories. Qualitative methods used for literature review of international relations theory related to the war onset and for investigating events occurred on the Peninsula and its surrounding seas from 1968 to 2007. Quantitative method used such as the analyses of national power index of the two Koreas, the United States, and China, the uses of equation model to calculate power index of alliance, COPDAB(Conflict and Peace Data Bank) index analysis. Like Choi's study on East Asia maritime conflict, as a conclusion, considering both AT theory and maritime national power as a tool for predicting maritime conflict in the Peninsula proved significant. Based on the study, ROK navy need to prepare for the maritime conflict because the results showed North Korea would initiate maritime disputes sooner or later using fatal asymmetric forces and methods. As a policy suggestion, we are required to maintain a concrete ROK-US alliance ties and to construct naval forces due to the deterring functions of maritime national power.

한반도 군사적 현안에 관한 미중관계 고찰 : 북핵, 사드, 한미동맹의 환경 하에서 (Analysis of U.S.-China Relations on The Korean Peninsula Military Puzzle : Under Circumstance of NK's Nuclear, THAAD, US-ROK Alliance)

  • 우정민
    • 융합보안논문지
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    • 제17권3호
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    • pp.83-93
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    • 2017
  • 본 논문의 목적은 트럼프 행정부 등장 이후 미국과 중국의 한반도 주요현안에 대한 입장을 분석하고 미중관계 속에서 한국의 대응을 모색하는데 있다. 이 글은 세력전이 측면의 미중관계 담론을 바탕으로 (1) 북핵 (2) 한반도 사드배치 (3) 한미동맹의 세 가지 조건 하에서 두 가지 가정을 전망케 한다. 하나는 미국의 세계질서가 지역질서를 지배하여 지역 질서가 안정적으로 관리되는 것과, 다른 하나는 중국 중심의 지역질서가 세계질서에 영향을 주어 미국과 역내 패권적 갈등이 발생하는 경우이다. 연구결과, 미중관계에서 압도적인 미국의 객관적 힘의 우위는 북핵, 사드, 한미동맹 등 세계 및 지역질서를 리드하는데 상당부분 유지할 것으로 보이며, 중국은 미국과의 갈등 속에서도 미국적 세계질서 유지가 가져올 정치 경제적 이익에 편승하여 한반도 주요현안들에 일정 정도 영향력과 협력이 기대된다. 이러한 전망에서 한국은 북핵, 사드, 동맹의 주요 제 문제들이 한미관계 강화를 우선으로, 변화하는 강대국 세력경쟁 사이에서 현실적 국익에 부합한 외교를 균형 있게 추진해야 할 것이다. 이른바 '시소외교(see-saw diplomacy)'가 필요하다.

남중국해를 둘러싼 미·중간의 갈등과 한국의 대응 (Conflicts between the US and China over the South China Sea and Korea's Responses)

  • 김강녕
    • Strategy21
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    • 통권42호
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    • pp.154-195
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    • 2017
  • This paper is to analyse conflict between the US and China over the South China Sea and Korea's responses. To this end the paper is composed of 6 chapters titled instruction; the current status of South China Sea sovereignty disputes; changes in US and Chinese maritime security strategies and the strategic values of the South China Sea; key issues and future prospects for US-China conflicts in the South China Sea; South Korea's security and diplomatic responses; and conclusion. The recent East Asian maritime security issue has evolved into a global issue of supremacy between the US and China, beyond conflicts over territorial disputes and demarcation among the countries in the region. China is pursuing offensive ocean policy to expand economic growth. The core of the maritime order that the United States intends to pursue is the freedom of navigation in the oceans and the maintenance of maritime access. China is making artificial islands in the South China Sea, claiming the sovereignty of these islands, building strategic bases in East Asia, and securing routes. The United States has developed several "Freedom of Navigation Operations" to neutralize the declaration of the territorial sea surrounding Chinese artificial islands. We can not be free from marine conflicts in the South China Sea and the East China Sea. Regarding the South China Sea dispute, it is expected that the strategic competition and conflict between the two countries will intensify due to China's failure to make concessions of core interests and adherence to the US compliance with international norms. In the midst of conflict over the South China Sea, we need a harmonious balance between our alliance security and economic diplomacy. We must continue our efforts to strengthen the ROK-US alliance but not to make China an enemy. Considering the significant impacts of the oceans on the survival and prosperity of the nation, we must continue to develop our interest in the oceans, appropriate investments and tactical strategies.

미국의 패권전략과 한국 군사전략 발전방향 (Study on the Direction of Korea's National Defense Strategy Focused on the Hegemony Strategy of U.S.A.)

  • 김성우
    • 안보군사학연구
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    • 통권8호
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    • pp.239-270
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    • 2010
  • This thesis is to make an appropriate national defense policy of Republic of Korea through studying the Hegemony Strategy of United States. I searched the theory of hegemony. The hegemony was differently defined by the point of time and region. The strong power nations with the hegemony have been making efforts to maintain their hegemony everytime. I have conclusion that the presence of hegemony once emerged, it brought regional stability in place whether it is coercive or beneficial. The stability and instability of international order IS not exclusively dependent on hegemony. Even if the safety of hegemony cannot guarantee absolute stability of international order, there IS on doubt that the hegemony has enormous impact on that. According to the hegemonic theory, the history of mankind equals to the history of rising and falling hegemony. The international order was changed as the hegemony changes. The United States has been making efforts to maintain her global hegemony during the post cold-war era as well. Taking all these into consideration, relevant military strategy direction able to pursue national interest is that to make up for the relative weakness in the strategic environment. South Korea have to prepare security policy response as following. First, South Korea should build the military force equipped with advanced weapons in military technology sector and solidify military diplomatic relation able to form cooperative relation in wartime. Second, South Korea should make solid Alliance of Korea and U.S. Third, develop and maintain multilateral security cooperation of East Asia. Forth, we could realize that there are means that can neutralize opponent's strong point by seeking one or two and more asymmetry in the aspect of strategy, tactics, and means through asymmetric strategy. Than the military force of South Korea should develop into a force that is able to overcome to the traditional North Korea's threat and new type of conflicts. And the force should have sufficient strength and be deployed to effectively defend the Korean Peninsula. So, we need to establish a denial and defense system against any hostile neighboring country. Therefore, ROK military forces preparing for the future should try to construct a future military power to gradually establish enough strength for self-defense to prepare for a uncertain security environment and when the Korean Peninsula is unified in a future.

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중국의 국방·안보백서 발간의 추이와 함의 (The Trend and Implications of the Publication of China's Defense and Security White Papers)

  • 김강녕
    • 한국과 국제사회
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    • 제3권1호
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    • pp.39-76
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    • 2019
  • 본 논문은 중국의 국방 안보백서 발간의 추이와 함의를 분석하기 위한 것이다. 이를 위해 중국의 국방 안보백서의 발간경위 및 구성, 시진핑 시기의 국방 안보백서의 요지와 함의의 순서로 살펴본 후 결론을 도출해 본 것이다. 중국 국방부는 1998년 이후 2010년까지 2년 주기로 7권의 "중국의 국방"을 발간했다. 그리고 중국 국방부는 이미 1995년 국방관련 주제의 백서 "중국의 무기통제와 군축"을 처음 발간한 데 이어, 2013년 "중국 무장역량의 다양한 운용", 2015년 "중국의 군사전략"의 3권의 국방관련백서, 그리고 2017년 "중국의 아시아 태평양 안보협력정책"이라는 1권의 안보백서를 발간했다. 모두 중국의 전략적 계산을 반영한 프로파간다라는 공통적 특징을 지니고 있다. 중국이 전향적으로 국방백서를 발간하기 시작한 데는 (1)미국 등 주변국의 군사적 투명성 요구에 대한 압력, (2)'중국위협론'의 불식, (3)중국의 군사 현대화의 성과에 대한 자신감 등 복합적 요인이 작용한 것으로 보인다. "중국의 꿈은 강국의 꿈이고 강국의 꿈은 강군건설이 필수이다."라는 시진핑의 의지가 담긴 '적극적 방어전략' 및 강대강전략은 주변국에게 안보적 우려감을 증폭시키고 있다. 튼튼한 한 미 안보공조관계를 유지 강화해 나가는 한편, 한중경제협력관계도 조화롭게 추진해 나가는 헤징전략이 우리에게 요구된다.

중국군의 해양작전능력과 한국군의 과제 (PRC Maritime Operational Capability and the Task for the ROK Military)

  • 김민석
    • Strategy21
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    • 통권33호
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    • pp.65-112
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    • 2014
  • Recent trends show that the PRC has stepped aside its "army-centered approach" and placed greater emphasis on its Navy and Air Force for a wider range of operations, thereby reducing its ground force and harnessing its economic power and military technology into naval development. A quantitative growth of the PLA Navy itself is no surprise as this is not a recent phenomenon. Now is the time to pay closer attention to the level of PRC naval force's performance and the extent of its warfighting capacity in the maritime domain. It is also worth asking what China can do with its widening naval power foundation. In short, it is time to delve into several possible scenarios I which the PRC poses a real threat. With this in mind, in Section Two the paper seeks to observe the construction progress of PRC's naval power and its future prospects up to the year 2020, and categorize time frame according to its major force improvement trends. By analyzing qualitative improvements made over time, such as the scale of investment and the number of ships compared to increase in displacement (tonnage), this paper attempts to identify salient features in the construction of naval power. Chapter Three sets out performance evaluation on each type of PRC naval ships as well as capabilities of the Navy, Air Force, the Second Artillery (i.e., strategic missile forces) and satellites that could support maritime warfare. Finall, the concluding chapter estimates the PRC's maritime warfighting capability as anticipated in respective conflict scenarios, and considers its impact on the Korean Peninsula and proposes the directions ROK should steer in response. First of all, since the 1980s the PRC navy has undergone transitions as the focus of its military strategic outlook shifted from ground warfare to maritime warfare, and within 30 years of its effort to construct naval power while greatly reducing the size of its ground forces, the PRC has succeeded in building its naval power next to the U.S.'s in the world in terms of number, with acquisition of an aircraft carrier, Chinese-version of the Aegis, submarines and so on. The PRC also enjoys great potentials to qualitatively develop its forces such as indigenous aircraft carriers, next-generation strategic submarines, next-generation destroyers and so forth, which is possible because the PRC has accumulated its independent production capabilities in the process of its 30-year-long efforts. Secondly, one could argue that ROK still has its chances of coping with the PRC in naval power since, despite its continuous efforts, many estimate that the PRC naval force is roughly ten or more years behind that of superpowers such as the U.S., on areas including radar detection capability, EW capability, C4I and data-link systems, doctrines on force employment as well as tactics, and such gap cannot be easily overcome. The most probable scenarios involving the PRC in sea areas surrounding the Korean Peninsula are: first, upon the outbreak of war in the peninsula, the PRC may pursue military intervention through sea, thereby undermining efforts of the ROK-U.S. combined operations; second, ROK-PRC or PRC-Japan conflicts over maritime jurisdiction or ownership over the Senkaku/Diaoyu islands could inflict damage to ROK territorial sovereignty or economic gains. The PRC would likely attempt to resolve the conflict employing blitzkrieg tactics before U.S. forces arrive on the scene, while at the same time delaying and denying access of the incoming U.S. forces. If this proves unattainable, the PRC could take a course of action adopting "long-term attrition warfare," thus weakening its enemy's sustainability. All in all, thiss paper makes three proposals on how the ROK should respond. First, modern warfare as well as the emergent future warfare demonstrates that the center stage of battle is no longer the domestic territory, but rather further away into the sea and space. In this respect, the ROKN should take advantage of the distinct feature of battle space on the peninsula, which is surrounded by the seas, and obtain capabilities to intercept more than 50 percent of the enemy's ballistic missiles, including those of North Korea. In tandem with this capacity, employment of a large scale of UAV/F Carrier for Kill Chain operations should enhance effectiveness. This is because conditions are more favorable to defend from sea, on matters concerning accuracy rates against enemy targets, minimized threat of friendly damage, and cost effectiveness. Second, to maintain readiness for a North Korean crisis where timely deployment of US forces is not possible, the ROKN ought to obtain capabilities to hold the enemy attack at bay while deterring PRC naval intervention. It is also argued that ROKN should strengthen its power so as to protect national interests in the seas surrounding the peninsula without support from the USN, should ROK-PRC or ROK-Japan conflict arise concerning maritime jurisprudence. Third, the ROK should fortify infrastructures for independent construction of naval power and expand its R&D efforts, and for this purpose, the ROK should make the most of the advantages stemming from the ROK-U.S. alliance inducing active support from the United States. The rationale behind this argument is that while it is strategically effective to rely on alliance or jump on the bandwagon, the ultimate goal is always to acquire an independent response capability as much as possible.