• Title/Summary/Keyword: ROC 곡선 분석

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Landslide Susceptibility Mapping Using Ensemble FR and LR models at the Inje Area, Korea (FR과 LR 앙상블 모형을 이용한 산사태 취약성 지도 제작 및 검증)

  • Kim, Jin Soo;Park, So Young
    • Journal of Korean Society for Geospatial Information Science
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    • v.25 no.1
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    • pp.19-27
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    • 2017
  • This research was aimed to analyze landslide susceptibility and compare the prediction accuracy using ensemble frequency ratio (FR) and logistic regression at the Inje area, Korea. The landslide locations were identified with the before and after aerial photographs of landslide occurrence that were randomly selected for training (70%) and validation (30%). The total twelve landslide-related factors were elevation, slope, aspect, distance to drainage, topographic wetness index, stream power index, soil texture, soil sickness, timber age, timber diameter, timber density, and timber type. The spatial relationship between landslide occurrence and landslide-related factors was analyzed using FR and ensemble model. The produced LSI maps were validated and compared using relative operating characteristics (ROC) curve. The prediction accuracy of produced ensemble LSI map was about 2% higher than FR LSI map. The LSI map produced in this research could be used to establish land use planning and mitigate the damages caused by disaster.

Evaluation of Usefulness of SPECT-CT at the Examination of Digestive System Leakage Patients (소화기계 Leakage 환자 검사 시 SPECT-CT의 유용성 평가)

  • Ham, Jun Cheol;Oh, Shin Hyun;Choi, Yong Hoon;Kang, Chun Koo;Kim, Jae Sam
    • The Korean Journal of Nuclear Medicine Technology
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    • v.22 no.1
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    • pp.98-102
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    • 2018
  • Purpose When examining patients with digestive system Leakage, it is not easy to distinguish between bile leakage and bleeding only with Planar images. I would like to evaluate the utility of leakage of bile, confirmation of gastrointestinal bleeding and location discrimination using SPECT-CT. Materials and Methods SPECT-CT was performed according to the request of the reading room after acquiring Planar image for a total of 13 patients, including 8 patients suspected of bile leakage and 5 patients suspected of gastrointestinal bleeding, among patients visiting this specification went. We used Symbia T16 from SIEMENS and Discovery 670 from GE. Planar and SPECT-CT images were evaluated with a score of 1 to 10 by 4 experienced nuclear medicine doctors. Using the sensitivity and the specificity, the evaluation of the inspection by the ROC curve was carried out. The final diagnosis was confirmed by follow-up observation as a result of reoperative surgery. Results The sensitivity, specificity and accuracy of SPECT-CT were 91.7%, 100% and 94.2%, respectively. Planar images were 83.3%, 68.8% and 78.8%, respectively. Planar images showed lower diagnostic accuracy compared to SPECT-CT (78.8%, 94.2%, p<0.05). Moreover, the reliability of the diagnosis of SPECT-CT by ROC curve analysis showed a more useful result than the Planar image (p<0.05). Conclusion SPECT-CT had high sensitivity and specificity for diagnosis of biliary leakage and gastrointestinal bleeding and location discrimination. When SPECT-CT is additionally performed together with Planar images, it may be considered to improve bile leakage and diagnosis of gastrointestinal bleeding patients and position discrimination evaluation. There is usefulness depending on the patient's age and position, but consideration of additional CT exposure may be done sufficiently.

Correlation of Pre-treatment FDG Uptake to Therapeutic Response and Relapse in Patients with Small Cell Lung Cancer (소세포폐암의 치료전 FDG섭취와 치료반응 및 재발과의 연관성)

  • Seo, Young-Soon;Kwon, Seong-Young;Jeong, Shin-Young;Song, Ho-Chun;Min, Jung-Joon;Kim, Kyu-Sik;Kim, Young-Chul;Bom, Hee-Seung
    • Nuclear Medicine and Molecular Imaging
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    • v.41 no.6
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    • pp.538-545
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    • 2007
  • Purpose: We evaluated correlation of $^{18}F$-FDG uptakes, therapeutic response and relapse in pre-treatment $^{18}F$-FDG PET/CT in patients with SCLC. Materials and methods: We included 26 patients with pathologically proven small cell lung cancer. Total 102 lesions (26 lungs, 69 lymph nodes and 8 metastatic lesions) were evaluated. All patients underwent $^{18}F$-FDG PET/CT for staging. The maxSUV was used as a parameter of $^{18}F$-FDG uptake. The patients were divided into responders and non-responders according to response criteria on chest CT scan after 3 cycles of chemotherapy. We compared maxSUV between two groups by using independent t-test. To access correlation with $^{18}F$-FDG uptake and relapse, maxSUV and interval time to relapse was analyzed by correlation analysis. The cutoff value of maxSUV was evaluated by ROC curve. Results: Twelve-one patients (81%) were responders and five patients were non-responders on follow-up chest CT scan. The mean maxSUV of main lung lesions in responders and non-responders were $14.15{\pm}3.72$ and $9.17{\pm}2.15$, respectively. The maxSUV in the responders was significantly lower than that in non-responders (p<0.05). According to ROC curve, point of cut that predicts therapeutic response was 8.98 with 100% sensitivity and 57% specificity. The correlation analysis between $^{18}F$-FDG uptakes and interval time to relapse showed a significant negative correlation (p<0.05, r=-0.757). Conclusion: The pre-treatment $^{18}F$-FDG uptake of responders was significantly lower than that of non-responders. Patients with high $^{18}F$-FDG uptake in pre-treatment $^{18}F$-FDG PET/CT relapse earlier.

Analysis of Risk factors & Morphological Ultrasound Image for Gallbladder Polyp in Adults Living in Busan and Gyeongnam Provinces (부산·경남 지역 성인의 담낭용종 위험인자 및 초음파 영상의 형태학적 분석)

  • An, Hyeon;Hwang, Chul-Hwan;Ko, Sung-Jin;Kim, Chang-Soo
    • Journal of radiological science and technology
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    • v.39 no.3
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    • pp.353-359
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    • 2016
  • This study were to evaluate risk factors of GB polpy in Busan and Gyeongnam area. This study was performed with patients by abdominal ultrasonography among the patients who came to the P hospital from January to May 2016. Among them, risk factors were analyzed on 399 people at the same time when abdominal ultrasonography and hematological test. The statistical analysis of risk factors related to the GB ployp was performed by independent t-test and chi-square test. In consider of difference verification result for calculations odds ratio about independent variables, multiple logistic regression analysis to conduct verify adequacy by calculating forecasting model from variable. As a result, GB polyp risk factors have relevance to male, HBsAg positive, triglyceride. GB polyp risk factors confirmed to male, HBsAg positive, triglyceride were calculated forecasting model and forecasting probability value. Forecasting probability sensitivity 61.0%, specificity 76.8%, ROC area under curve 0.735 showed, it confirmed validity of forecasting model. When analyzing the GB polyps morphologically, among the GB polyp types observed from abdominal ultrasonography, the hyperechoic and homogeneous pattern with neck was the largest as shown from 27.5% and two GB polyps were shown most from 38%, sizes were shown most by maximum diameter, 5 to 10mm from 53%. As a disease accompany with GB polyp showed mild fatty liver(23%), diffuse hepatopathy(21%).

Performance effectiveness of pediatric index of mortality 2 (PIM2) and pediatricrisk of mortality III (PRISM III) in pediatric patients with intensive care in single institution: Retrospective study (단일 병원에서 소아 중환자의 예후인자 예측을 위한 PIM2 (pediatric index of mortality 2)와 PRIMS III (pediatric risk of mortality)의 유효성 평가 - 후향적 조사 -)

  • Hwang, Hui Seung;Lee, Na Young;Han, Seung Beom;Kwak, Ga Young;Lee, Soo Young;Chung, Seung Yun;Kang, Jin Han;Jeong, Dae Chul
    • Clinical and Experimental Pediatrics
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    • v.51 no.11
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    • pp.1158-1164
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    • 2008
  • Purpose : To investigate the discriminative ability of pediatric index of mortality 2 (PIM2) and pediatric risk of mortality III (PRISM III) in predicting mortality in children admitted into the intensive care unit (ICU). Methods : We retrospectively analyzed variables of PIM2 and PRISM III based on medical records with children cared for in a single hospital ICU from January 2003 to December 2007. Exclusions were children who died within 2 h of admission into ICU or hopeless discharge. We used Students t test and ANOVA for general characteristics and for correlation between survivors and non-survivors for variables of PIM2 and PRISM III. In addition, we performed multiple logistic regression analysis for Hosmer-Lemeshow goodness-of-fit, receiver operating characteristic curve (ROC) for discrimination, and calculated standardized mortality ratio (SMR) for estimation of prediction. Results : We collected 193 medical records but analyzed 190 events because three children died within 2 h of ICU admission. The variables of PIM2 correlated with survival, except for the presence of post-procedure and low risk. In PRISM III, there was a significant correlation for cardiovascular/neurologic signs, arterial blood gas analysis but not for biochemical and hematologic data. Discriminatory performance by ROC showed an area under the curve 0.858 (95% confidence interval; 0.779-0.938) for PIM2, 0.798 (95% CI; 0.686-0.891) for PRISM III, respectively. Further, SMR was calculated approximately as 1 for the 2 systems, and multiple logistic regression analysis showed ${\chi}^2(13)=14.986$, P=0.308 for PIM2, ${\chi}^2(13)=12.899$, P=0.456 for PRISM III in Hosmer-Lemeshow goodness-of-fit. However, PIM2 was significant for PRISM III in the likelihood ratio test (${\chi}^2(4)=55.3$, P<0.01). Conclusion : We identified two acceptable scoring systems (PRISM III, PIM2) for the prediction of mortality in children admitted into the ICU. PIM2 was more accurate and had a better fit than PRISM III on the model tested.

Assessing likelihood of drought impact occurrence in South korea through machine learning (머신러닝 기법을 통한 우리나라 가뭄 영향 발생 가능성 평가)

  • Seo, Jungho;Kim, Yeonjoo
    • Proceedings of the Korea Water Resources Association Conference
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    • 2021.06a
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    • pp.77-77
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    • 2021
  • 가뭄은 사회·경제적으로 매우 큰 피해를 주는 자연재해이며, 그 시작과 발생 지역을 정확하게 예측하는 데 어려운 문제가 있다. 이에 수문 분야에서는 가뭄에 영향을 미치는 수문·기상인자들을 이용하여 다양한 가뭄지수를 개발하였고 이를 활용하여 가뭄 현상을 모니터링하고 예측 및 전망하는데 다양한 노력을 기울이고 있다. 하지만 가뭄지수들은 실제 가뭄이 어떠한 형태로 발생하는지 파악하기에 많은 한계점을 가지고 있다. 이에 최근 들어 미국과 유럽에서는 실제 농업, 환경, 에너지 등과 같은 다양한 분야에 걸쳐 가뭄 피해로 인해 생기는 가뭄 영향을 보다 체계적이고 상세한 데이터 인벤토리로 구축하고 가뭄지수와의 상관관계, 회귀분석과 같은 연구를 통해 가뭄 영향 예측을 시도하고 있다. 따라서 본 연구에서는 보고서, 데이터베이스, 웹 크롤링(Web-Crawling)을 통한 뉴스 기사 등과 같은 자료를 수집하여 국내 가뭄 영향 인벤토리를 구축하였다. 또한 수문 분야에 널리 사용되고 있는 가뭄지수인 표준 강수 증발산량지수 SPEI(Standardized Precipitation-Evapotranspiration Index)를 기반으로 지역에 따른 가뭄 영향을 예측하기 위해 최근 로지스틱 회귀모형, Random forest, Support vector machine, XGBoost 등의 다양한 머신러닝 기법을 적용하였다. 각 모형의 성능을 Receiver Operating Characteristic(ROC) 곡선을 통해 평가하여 가뭄 영향 예측에 적절한 머신러닝 기법을 제시하였다. 본 연구 결과를 통해 텍스트 기반의 가뭄 영향 자료와 머신러닝 기법을 통한 가뭄 영향 예측 방법론은 가뭄 재난 관리에 유용한 정보를 제공할 수 있다.

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A Study on the Analytic Unit of Habitat Suitability Assessment and Selection in Conservation Areas for Leopard Cat(Prionailurus bengalensis) - Focus on Chungcheong Province Area - (삵의 서식지 적합성 평가를 위한 분석단위 설정 및 보전지역 선정 - 충청도 지역을 중심으로 -)

  • Lee, Dong-Kun;Song, Won-Kyong
    • Journal of the Korean Institute of Landscape Architecture
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    • v.36 no.5
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    • pp.64-72
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    • 2008
  • The purpose of this study is to compare a habitat suitability grid unit included within a radius of 100m and $1km^2,\;2km^2,\;4km^2$ watershed units in order to predict suitable habitats for Chungcheong province's endangered leopard species(Prionailurus bengalensis). Other developed countries have carried out habitat assessment and established management policies for species conservation using such methods as HEP(Habitat Evaluation Procedures), HSI(Habitat Suitability Index) and GAP(Gap Analysis Program), etc. In accordance with these studies, many evaluation methods for habitat conservation have been proposed in Korea, but these studies are lacking in consideration of analytic units and general application of analysis results. This study predicted leopard habitat using a logistic regression analysis according to analytic units by data from 56 location and 8 sources of environmental data, including elevation, slope, forest area, land cover, roads, water, broadleaf trees, and human habitation. Moreover, the habitat suitability assessment unit was confirmed by a model comparison process encompassing model explanation. verification, and application on a regional scale. Results showed that assessment methods that took into consideration areas in and around the location points were beneficial in predicting habitat and that the assessment unit was appropriate for a 30m grid unit including areas within a radius of 100m and a $1km^2$ watershed unit in Chungcheong Province. This study suggests a method for regional habitat conservation to complement existing conservation area selection methods, and the results are expected to be used in conservation area selection and ecosystem management policies for endangered species.

Analysis of Hematological Factor to Predict Plaque of the Carotid Artery in Ultrasound Images (경동맥초음파에서 죽상경화반을 예측하는 혈액학적 수치의 분석)

  • Yang, Sung Hee;Kang, Se Sik;Lee, Jinsoo
    • Journal of the Korean Society of Radiology
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    • v.10 no.3
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    • pp.187-193
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    • 2016
  • In this study, we performed the carotid artery ultrasound targeting 140 subjects who have conducted to evaluate the changes in intima-media thickness(IMT) and plaque correlated with the presence or absence of a hematological test of the carotid artery. Considering that the IMT thickness more than 1mm is abnormal based on the carotid artery ultrasound to assess the presence or absence of plaque, and examined the correlation by classifying the blood lipid value and the fasting blood glucose level through the serum test. Consequently, the fasting blood glucose level is being analyzed as independent predictors of causing dental plaque(p=0.033), cut off value was determined as 126 mg/dL(sensitivity 56.25%, specificity 68.38%) in ROC curve analysis. Furthermore, the odds ratio appeared 1.01 times the value in the Logistic regression. Therefore, it seemed that the necessity to prospective studies in a number of subjects are considered, and also taking into account a number of blood test values along with the sonography of the carotid artery as a valuable part for effective primary prevention and follow-up observation of the cardiac and brain vascular disease is highly recommended.

Complementarity between SDQ-SR and MMPI-A in Assessing Adolescents with Internalizing Disorder : A Preliminary Study (내재화장애 청소년의 평가에서 자기보고용 강점난점척도와 MMPI-A의 상호보완성 : 예비연구)

  • Shin, Kyo Jung;Ahn, Joung Sook;Lim, Jee Young;Lee, Jin Hee
    • Korean Journal of Psychosomatic Medicine
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    • v.26 no.1
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    • pp.9-18
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    • 2018
  • Objectives : The aims of this study were to investigate the psychopathology in adolescents with internalizing disorder using the self-report version of Strengths and Difficulties Questionnaire (SDQ-SR) and the Minnesota Multiphasic Personality Inventory for adolescents (MMPI-A), and to explore the complementarity between these two inventories for diagnostic assessment. Methods : Ninety-one patients aged 13-17 were divided into two groups by clinical diagnosis, 44 with internalizing disorder and 47 comparison group with other disorders. The data of SDQ-SR and MMPI-A completed by them were analyzed for the ability to predict internalizing disorder. Results : The logistic regression analysis revealed that diagnostic predictability increased by 2.27 times with every 1 point of SDQ-SR emotional symptom score increment. Comparison of ROC curves for internalizing disorders showed that the SE and SP of SDQ-SR emotional symptom with score over 4 was 88.94 and 78.72, respectively. For A-anx of MMPI-A with score over 56, SE and SP was 77.27 and 74.47, respectively. However, combination of these scales could not enhance the predictability of diagnostic classification more than that of SDQ-SR emotional symptom alone. Conclusions : Emotional symptom scale of SDQ-SR and A-anx, A-aln, A and INTR of MMPI-A should be important subscales for diagnosing the internalizing disorder of adolescents, however, which needs to be examined further with a larger sample size including normal control group.

Susceptibility Mapping of Umyeonsan Using Logistic Regression (LR) Model and Post-validation through Field Investigation (로지스틱 회귀 모델을 이용한 우면산 산사태 취약성도 제작 및 현장조사를 통한 사후검증)

  • Lee, Sunmin;Lee, Moung-Jin
    • Korean Journal of Remote Sensing
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    • v.33 no.6_2
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    • pp.1047-1060
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    • 2017
  • In recent years, global warming has been continuing and abnormal weather phenomena are occurring frequently. Especially in the 21st century, the intensity and frequency of hydrological disasters are increasing due to the regional trend of water. Since the damage caused by disasters in urban areas is likely to be extreme, it is necessary to prepare a landslide susceptibility maps to predict and prepare the future damage. Therefore, in this study, we analyzed the landslide vulnerability using the logistic model and assessed the management plan after the landslide through the field survey. The landslide area was extracted from aerial photographs and interpretation of the field survey data at the time of the landslides by local government. Landslide-related factors were extracted topographical maps generated from aerial photographs and forest map. Logistic regression (LR) model has been used to identify areas where landslides are likely to occur in geographic information systems (GIS). A landslide susceptibility map was constructed by applying a LR model to a spatial database constructed through a total of 13 factors affecting landslides. The validation accuracy of 77.79% was derived by using the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve for the logistic model. In addition, a field investigation was performed to validate how landslides were managed after the landslide. The results of this study can provide a scientific basis for urban governments for policy recommendations on urban landslide management.